Stein--Polling Fluctuations and Updates
The latest polls around Green Party candidate Jill Stein are all over the place lately.
The Good
The latest poll out of Missouri (Emerson) shows a spike in Stein's poll numbers to 6%, up from 1%-3% in all previous polls. For comparison, Libertarian candidate Johnson is only at 7% in Missouri in the same poll--so Stein has basically caught up to the Libertarians there.
Maine shows strength as well where Stein is holding steady at 5% (SurveyUSA). In Vermont--one of her highest polling states--Stein is polling at 7% (Emerson). Yes there was a recent poll I reported in one of my previous essays that showed her at 10%, but the methodology of that poll was a bit suspect. So, it's good to see some fairly high numbers in a poll with better methodology.
Michigan's latest polling shows Stein at her highest number ever for that state at 4% (Detroit Free Press). Previously she had been polling at 3% or lower. Connecticut is similar, where she is now at 4% (Emerson) when previously she was at 3%.
The Bad
The latest polls out of Colorado--previously one of Stein's highest polling states--show a sharp drop in support there. Back in early August she was polling in the 6%-7% range consistently. The latest couple of polls, including an Emerson poll, now show Stein at 3%.
In New York, Emerson now has Stein at 3% where previous polls showed her up in the 6% area.
Stein had been polling at 6% in California back in July. There is now a new poll--the only one performed since that time--by SurveyUSA that shows Stein only finding 1% support in the state. Egads!
The Ugly
Stein was officially excluded from the first presidential debate, as was Libertarian candidate Johnson. Quelle surprise!
The Ground Game
Stein has been campaigning actively--recently appearing on a FOX news debate forum, and FOX news will be hosting a Green Party town hall on Sept. 20 where Stein will be present.
She yesterday campaigned in Baltimore, which might become the first large US city to elect a Green Party mayor this fall. She also stopped in Newark, Delaware the same day.
Stein just now appeared at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
Tomorrow (Sunday), Stein will make an appearance in Northhampton, Massachussetts.
This upcoming Tuesday, she will campaign in Albany, New York, making an appearance at the university there.
She's working it . . . every day!
Comments
Margin of Errors make Stein's numbers really hard to gauge.
As do some suspect polling methodologies.
Thanks for the update! n/t
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Do these polls occur before or after 911?
With Hillary wilting under the blazing hot sun in the middle of the parched New York desert, Jill's numbers may have gone up--I hope.
Some are before
Some span over 9/11 and afterwards (latest dates are 9/13). All are in September. Probably the majority of data are from before 9/11.
Edit to add: Missouri, Colorado Emerson polls: 9/9-9/13; New York Emerson poll: 8/28-8/30 (oops--not September); California SurveyUSA: 9/8-9/11; Michigan Detroit Free Press poll: 9/10-9/13; Vermont Emerson poll: 9/2-9/5; Maine SurveyUSA poll: 9/4-9/10.
I think it is a good possibility that the weather will elect
Jill Stein.
Since she is on the ballot or a write-in on all states except 2, all we need is the mother of all storms and people at the ballot box will go "fuck this shit" and check the Jill box.
She is doing a great job of speaking at every press opportunity - even Fox - as an intelligent choice.
Not that I am hoping for people to get hurt . . . no no no . . . but those storms are out there in great numbers. Karl looks pretty bad.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
Fighting the Fear
I was about to make a comment about how all the fear being ginned up by Clinton and her surrogates was just hysteria because she seemed to have about 248 EVs locked up, but I went to check the latest data at 270towin and was surprised to see her now at only 200 EVs. That is a serious drop in only a week. It now looks like about 175 EVs are in play, when last week it was more like 100. Her numbers really never do go up...
For those Greens looking to reassure fence sitters, you might want to have a look at the state-by-state breakdown on the same site. Some states are a harder sell, but others have plenty of room for Jill to pick up disaffected lefties. MA, MD, CA and NY all show double-digit Clinton leads, and could easily spare some love for Jill and Ajuma.
Even states like OR and my own WA have plenty of space to pick up Green votes. Moreover both of these states have mail-in voting, so getting people to vote early before the final fear factor sets in could be valuable in preventing final week wilting.
Another possible source of votes is Millennials who are voting Libertarian just to give the duopoly the finger, but who may not know they have another choice. The Libertarian domestic platform has goodies like legalisation and marriage equality, but the rest of it is no different from what the top two parties are pushing. Learning that they can have their cake and eat it too could produce more support.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Of course it doesnt work that way.
Fear of a Trump victory has no relationship, mathematical or otherwise, to its actual possibility of happening. Rather, we must start from the expectation that most Clinton votes are prompted by fear of Trump, and thus assume that Trump-phobia is greatest in secure Clinton states.
"But in America particularly, a deep worry is now consciously gnawing the ruling class—they can see it, feel it: that the American Empire is on its last legs, close to collapse."-- Simplicius
Redacted Tonight, Lee Camp - The Polls Are WRONG
Camp: "Johnson is already at 15% and Stein may be close to 15%"
- Typical Polls include less that 17% independents.
- But independents comprise 42% of voters.
-A CNN poll did not include anyone of ages 18-34. You know, the old Bernie crowd.
Bottom line. The polls are shit.
segment starts at 8:18 mark
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
Do we even trust any of this?
That CA number looks weird.
And there's this:
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB_ZlLfKWig]
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
No I don't trust any of it.
I think the Clinton campaign is somehow suppressing the Stein numbers. Outright paying people, maybe?
Numbers don't go down that drastically when you haven't tripped up on something.
Thank you much for these updates!
I have a hard time finding good polling on her, and I still see online surveys that don't include her. So thanks!