Hillary makes the pledge

"They are not going to get ground troops," she said at a prime-time NBC forum. "We are not putting ground troops into Iraq ever again. And we're not putting ground troops into Syria. We're going to defeat ISIS without committing American ground troops."

She said it four times. Clearly, this was a message she intended to deliver.

The first big problem with this premise is the fact that there are already arguably ground troops in Iraq and Syria. The second is that in recent months, generals have asked for even more. In other words: The potential need for a ramped-up effort is already evident, but Clinton is completely foreclosing that option in a way that doesn't allow for changing circumstances.
At the core of Clinton's promise is the definition of "ground troops."

U.S. training Kurds to fight Iran

An Iranian Kurdish rebel group received military training in weapons and explosives from U.S. and European advisers as part of the international program backing Kurds in the war against the Islamic State group in Iraq, the group's commander told The Associated Press.
The group, called the Kurdistan Freedom Party, is one of several Iranian Kurdish factions that have carried out attacks this year inside Iran, sparking a crackdown by security forces. At the same time, the group has been fighting alongside Iraqi Kurds against Islamic State group militants in northern Iraq.

Saudis approve of anti-kurd operation

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister on Friday reiterated his country's full backing of Turkish military operations in northern Syria against IS and Kurdish militants, and suggested a military solution remained the strongest option to get rid of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad....
He was also eager to show his support for Turkey regarding its position on the Syrian-Kurdish PYD, which Ankara considers the terrorist extension of the PKK, which has been fighting the Turkish state for three decades.
“We support the Turkish position and have made it very clear right from the start. They are divisive and have a narrow-based agenda. We are against giving them a role,” he said.

Global bond bubble about to bust?

Weak growth, higher inflation, and stagnant productivity in developed countries will roil bond investors in the decades to come, as the benign global forces that have buoyed returns on financial assets for the past 35 years stage a sharp reversal. That's the big-picture call from Deutsche Bank AG analysts who predict an oncoming lurch towards trade and financial protectionism — combined with aging populations and weak worker output — will intensify financial repression as a new multi-decade-long economic cycle kicks off this year.

"In our opinion we're getting closer to a binary outcome for the global economy and financial markets," the strategists, led by Jim Reid, wrote in a report on Thursday.

Now, there's an inflection point in the global economy that is poised to create a perfect storm for bond investors: higher inflation, and strengthening political incentives to erode high debt burdens by hitting bond holders with effective haircuts, the bank argues.

A slew of analysts have warned bond investors in the coming years will be hit by negative real returns, citing stretched valuations, the prospect of rising price pressures from a low base, and monetary tightening in the U.S. Yesterday, DoubleLine Capital Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Gundlach recommended that bond investors gear up for higher inflation and higher bond yields, saying, in a webcast, “This is a big, big moment” for financial markets, citing the prospect of rising rates.

Contagion

Some strategists have suggested that relatively lofty stock valuations are only justifiable in the context of ultra-low bond yields, so any price gyrations in sovereign debt aren't likely to stay confined to one market.

Project Fear: Italy Job Edition

Project Fear began two years ago in the run up to Scotland’s national referendum. It then spread to the rest of the UK in the lead up to this summer´s Brexit referendum. But it keeps on moving. Its latest destination is Italy, where the campaign to instill fear and trepidation in the hearts and souls of Italy’s voters was just inaugurated by the world’s most influential investment bank, Goldman Sachs.

It just released a 14-page report warning about the potentially dire consequences of a “no” vote in Italy’s upcoming referendum on the government’s proposed constitutional reforms. The reforms seek, among other things, to streamline Italy’s government process by dramatically restricting the powers of the senate, a major source of political gridlock, while also handing more power to the executive.

The polls in Italy are currently neck and neck, though the momentum belongs to the reform bill’s opponents.

If the Italian public vote against the bill, the response of the markets could be extremely negative, warns Goldman, putting in jeopardy the latest attempt to rescue Italy’s third largest and most insolvent bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena. The rescue is being led by JP Morgan Chase and Italian lender Mediobanca, and includes the participation of a select group of global megabanks that are desperate to prevent contagion spreading from Italy’s banking system to other European markets, and beyond. They include Goldman Sachs