Russia's offensive in Syria not doing much there
Washington is busy screaming and crying over Putin's military adventure in Syria, and Moscow is pumping out the propaganda about how they are "destroying" terrorists by the score, the actual facts on the ground is that not all that much has changed.
Russia's offensive ismaking minimal gains
So far, most of the gains from the Russian-backed ground offensive have come in the northwestern part of Syria, where Russian airpower has supported a mix of forces loyal to Assad along with some Shi'ite militiamen from Iraq and Iranian forces.
As pro-Assad forces have moved further inland, however, contesting rebel forces in and around cities like Aleppo, Homs and Hama, they seem to have stalled.
“Many of the [rebel] forces that remain in key areas are battle-hardened and experienced fighters,” the intelligence official said. “Air power alone is unlikely to turn the battlefield in Assad’s favor.”
Which shouldn't surprise anyone. These forces have been bombed for four years now. They know what they are doing.
Aside from some modest gains by the Assad regime in north-west Syria, the only real change has been gains by ISIS.
The terror group ISIS made gains near Syria's largest city in the last 24 hours, indirectly aided by Russian airstrikes that drove other groups out.
ISIS militants seized five villages on the northern edge of Aleppo, putting them within 1 mile of territory held by the Syrian regime, Reuters reports.
This also shouldn't surprise anyone. The Assad regime has always been more interested in rebels groups not named ISIS, than in the Islamic State.
While militarily the situation hasn't really changed, politically it's been an earthquake.
For starters, the Syrian rebel groups (minus ISIS) now have another common enemy.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria is pushing disparate rebel groups to work together more on the battlefield to confront ground offensives unleashed this week by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in the center and northwest of the war-wracked country....
Field commanders of militias aligned with the Western-backed FSA are more closely coordinating their defenses and counterattacks with the Islamist-dominated Jaish al-Fatah, or Army of Conquest, an alliance that includes al-Qaida’s affiliate in the country, Jabhat al-Nusra. And they are working together in joint operation rooms in Idlib and Aleppo, several commanders and fighters contacted by phone told VOA.
The increasing collaboration will likely displease Washington, which has refused in the past to work with powerful Islamist militias such as Ahrar al-Sham. Earlier this week, 41 insurgent groups issued a joint statement vowing to attack Russian forces in retaliation for Moscow’s air offensive in a rare display of unity among the usually fractious rebels.
In the statement, the insurgent groups, including the U.S.-backed Division 101 and Tajammu Alezza, said, “All Syrian armed revolutionary factions must realize we are in a war to push an aggressor, a war that makes unifying ranks and word a duty on all brothers …Any occupation force to our beloved country is a legitimate target.”
The significance of this is that our claims about "moderate" rebels are even harder to prove, because they are working directly with the jihadists.
On the other side of the equation, the Gulf states have upped their support for Syrian rebel groups.
Saudi Arabia is responding to the recent Russian air strikes on Syrian rebels by stepping up its supplies of lethal weaponry to three different rebel groups, a Saudi government official has told the BBC.
He said those groups being supplied did not include either Islamic State (IS) or al-Nusra Front, both of which are proscribed terrorist organisations. Instead, he said the weapons would go to three rebel alliances - Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest), the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Southern Front.
The obvious problem with this claim is that al-Nusra Front is a leading player in the Army of Conquest.
In short, Russia's entry in Syria hasn't done much in Syria, but it's been huge outside of Syria.
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What's left of Syria at this point
Apart from Assad's stronghold? Millions have fled the country, many cities and towns are rubble.
To thine own self be true.