The issues are the most important thing...except when they're not
For the vast majority of Bernie Sanders' supporters, the issues are the most important thing. To me, they are literally everything that really matters in this election year.
But you wanna know something?
Even if Bernie had (1) somehow won the Dem nomination outright months ago and had (2) even been able to persuade the Dem party establishment to hop on his bandwagon (!!), it would not have convinced me that winning the general election would be a virtual certainty.
Being right on the issues is simply not enough to take your crusade to the promised land...
You see, I've been around for a while and I have seen how the Republicans have been able to persuade millions of average Americans to go into the voting booth on election day and vote against their own best interests.
I've watched as one Democratic candidate after another has gone down to defeat, their campaign strategists apparently clueless as to what the Republicans are doing and how they must act to beat them at their game.
Here's how I put in in an analytical tract I wrote back in 2004 called The Republican Nemesis:
Republican strategists have been able to blend their astute grasp of marketing principles, human nature, & social psychology into a formula that delivers almost guaranteed success at the polls. While Democrats knock themselves out every election cycle trying to talk to Swing Voters about The Issues, Republicans have calmly focused their attention on winning The Image Campaign. Quite simply: Democrats lose because they don't understand what moves their target audience.
Who is this target audience that I referred to? The Swing Voters. The Swing Voters comprise a fairly small slice of the electorate, maybe only 5%-8% of all voters, because unlike just about everyone you know, a swing voter actually can be persuaded to vote for the candidate of either party. It is they who always decide every national election. If you can't get most of them to vote for you, you are going to lose.
The Issues might actually be important to many Swing Voters early on in a political campaign, but when both sides start to pick apart each other's facts and interpretations, the typical Swing Voter quickly becomes confused. As the debate over The Issues drags on, Swing Voters realize that they don't understand the details well enough to make an informed decision, so they end up relying on their impressions of the candidates.
Republican strategists see this clearly. That is why they continuously try to create doubts in the minds of the Swing Voters about the character of the Democratic candidate. They know that it doesn't really matter if they can't find any real flaws in their Democratic opponents. Accusations, insinuations, & innuendo will work just fine.
They hope to encourage voters to question the motivation and dependability of The Democrats. They try to create the perception that Democrats are 'defective' in a disturbing way. By accusing, the Republicans implicitly suggest to Swing Voters that they are not defective like the people they are looking down on.
Here's more:
Republican strategists know they would rarely win if election results were always determined by a logical discussion of The Issues and nothing more (they know that most voters would benefit more from Democratic economic policies than from Republican policies). They know they must win the Image Campaign to have any chance of winning. That is why they are committed, now and forever, to negative campaigning.
Republicans have never forgotten a key stratagem they perfected during the Reagan Era: DEMONIZING YOUR OPPONENTS WORKS. It works because Swing Voters are essentially 'headline readers' and 'sound byte nibblers.' When they see in the headlines that Candidate A accused Candidate B of having a certain personality defect, they tend to believe it. (Unless it is effectively answered.)
The most important reason why negative campaigning has worked so well for the Republicans is because their negative attacks on the Democrats create a positive impression of Republican candidates, who appear---in contrast---to be individuals who do not possess the defects that they have accused others of having.
They define themselves positively by defining their Democratic opponents negatively.
On a visceral level, what the Republicans actually 'stand for' in the minds of Swing Voters on election day is that they are not Democrats, those defective people who seem to have been born to ruin everything. It's simple, really. By bashing Democrats, Republicans present themselves as the desirable alternative.
The negative character attacks also provide the Republicans with one more benefit. They know that the media will give priority coverage to their personal attacks and that it will distract attention away from any of the "substance" blather that Democrats always like to talk about.
So there you have it. The Issues really are important...to you, to me, to Bernie Sanders and to all those who would like to wrest control of our government away from The Oligarchy. But when it comes to winning the elections that will give you that control, it is absolutely essential that you don't fool yourself into thinking that simply emphasizing the issues in the face of a continuous character assassination campaign is going to give you the victory you seek.
-----------------------------------
In a follow up essay, I'll present my prescription for how win over the Swing Voters and create a true Majority Party that represents the economic interests of average Americans everywhere.
Comments
Sorry, but...
this way of thinking is part of the electoral problem that Democrats face. By focusing on "swing voters," Democrats fail to expand their base. Most Americans recognize, even if they don't understand the complete reason, that no one really cares what they think. People in deep blue and red states feel that they are taken for granted. This creates voter apathy allowing deep blue states to elect legislatures, and governors, that are Republican-controlled (or at the very least the Republicans exercise considerable power). Bernie Sanders showed the way to move forward. Instead of focusing on "swing voters," they need to expand the base by showing that they truly intend to fix the problems middle, and working, class people have to deal with. Authenticity goes a long way. Americans see neither party as having any, and they are absolutely correct to believe it.
*Corrected "part" to "party" in final sentence.
Well...
Actually, the swing voters are typically people who would benefit a great deal from Bernie's economic agenda only they don't have a clue as to what you are talking about when you try to show them that you you truly "...intend to fix the problems middle, and working, class people have to deal with."
They will hear you...without understanding...and then they will hear the character assassins, who will sound so convincing with all the emotion they are expressing.
Let me just humbly suggest that you read the follow up essay I'll be publishing, which will explain in much more detail exactly how these swing voters need to be approached to win them over from the influence of the Bad Guys.
James Kroeger
I think that...
this was definitely true when you wrote it in 2004. I think the younger generations, and the older computer-literate, cord cutters, have changed the game. Information has become so much easier to find. Finding direct sources for information without the filter of the traditional media have changed how people consume politics and political media. People have always claimed to hate traditional negative campaigning, and during this primary, it seems to have lost its effectiveness. At least it did in regards to Bernie, who is actually seen as having integrity. And didn't Bernie actually do better whenever Hillary went after him negatively? I know his fundraising jumped with every negative attack. I hope that it isn't an outlier, but we shall see.
And I look forward to your follow up.
Changes in communications technology have been a godsend....
...enabling Bernie's campaign to circumvent much of the MSM's filter, at least with respect to most younger voters. It is, however, limited in its reach.
One of the reasons I'm writing about this now is because those who have generally supported the political/economic left have frequently misjudged the obstacles they are actually facing.
Many make the very simple mistake of assuming that, because Mr. and Ms. XYZ would benefit from our agenda, they must surely see that we would be the best people to give their votes to.
Indeed, since the very beginnings of democratic-socialist thought, The Left has long felt that, because they have the numbers, and because of the righteousness of their cause, how could they fail to win every election?
Ultimately, I'm saying that we need to better understand how to communicate with voters who understanding little or nothing about economics, about government, about organizations, about fancy words.
And yes, you're quite right that Bernie's palpable authenticity did cut through a lot of the crap for many people and it would have been a major asset during the general election. But at the same time it needs to be remembered that Hillary's artful smears of Bernie and his followers did indeed persuade many Democrats into seeing him in a negative light and he did not allow himself to 'define her' in a way that would have saved him from her calumnies.
Of course, I've always hoped that he would deal with the Republican nominee quite differently, with full-throated denunciations when needed and even some expressions of contempt. But there is only a small chance of him having that opportunity now...
James Kroeger
Yes, the larger percentage of eligible voters are Non-Afilliated
Both D's and R's have been losing loyal members, not because one is selling image and the other ideas, but because both of our major parties fail to work for the interests of the vast majority of the population. The jig is about up. The younger voters who were attracted in great numbers to Bernie understand the rigged game of our two party system and want no part of it. If the Democratic Party can not be brought back to serving the urgent basic needs of the population, there will be a viable third party in the near future, and yes possibly even the revolution Bernie has been calling for.
What was true twelve years ago is not still true today. The two party system was a given then, today it is being questioned from all sides and is no longer seen as a viable format for a healthy democracy.
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
Swing != unafilliated
I saw something recently about how most "independents" are actually not independent at all, but reliably vote for one party or the other. So its not clear to me what we can tell from the number of independents.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
They plan to steal the election
just as the primary was stolen from Bernie only with more tricks. Here's just one of the their tricks - gerrymandering.
Yes the issues are important, but fair voting is an essential first step.
Great piece on gerrymandering last night
Published on Jun 28, 2016
David Daley, RATF**KED: The True Story Behind the Secret Plan to Steal America's Democracy/Salon joins Thom. The Gerrymandering of electoral districts has given Republicans massive majorities at both the federal and state levels. But has it also left their party more vulnerable to being taken over by people like Donald Trump?
part 1 12 min
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ls9ifmK-OM]
part 2 12 min
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XakcnUgkGc]
And a quick second point from Greg Palast, red states are taking same named voters off registration lists called:
http://opednews.com/Podcast/Greg-Palast-How-the-2016-by-Rob-Kall-Electio...
So James, I'm with you all the way on "issues are the issue". And I see the first major issue we have to tackle is having fair open accountable elections.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
OMG yes...
If Bernie ends up finding that he can't make any more headway with reforming the Dem Party, I hope he'll lead a national effort to at least get our national election processes reformed...
James Kroeger
The media have been happy to carry the GOP's message
when it served the interests of the 1%. Bush II offered supply side economics while Gore threatened to spoil the interests of corporations with his talk of global warming, so the media supported Bush.
Bernie threatens multiple corporate interests, but even with a hostile corporate media people are angrier now. The DNC has aligned with corporations as well and appears to be working to bring Berniecrats to heel on the issues asserting their power in the platform committee.
So the challenge would be for Bernie to carry the issues to swing voters. The media would work to use as many issues as possible to divide and conquer.
We are used to being offered two sock puppets from which to choose and are then directed by the media to the "better" choice. In 2000 it was obvious that Bush was the anointed one while Gore was the designated loser and so it came to pass.
Properly approached, I think "swing voters" could swing Bernie's way. He knows how to fight. He's no sock puppet.
The problem isn't swing voters. The problem is the system.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
The media has been a big part of the challenge...
...but Bernie was able to bypass almost all of it because (1) his campaign's ability to raise big $$ contributions, and (2) the fact that most younger folks get their news from non-MSM sources. So the overall picture is much brighter, but it's not like we hold all the trump cards, either.
There is still a very fundamental problem that does not have an obvious simple solution: most of the people going to the polls would have developed an impression of Bernie Sanders based not on having exposed themselves openly to his message directly, but rather one based on a 'rumor' of Bernie Sanders that his political enemies would be spreading around...
James Kroeger
Sweet doggie.
[[skritch behind the ears]]
Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.
He is a sweetie. Thanks for the skritches!
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
swing voters are mythical creatures that...
...the Democrats should stop chasing. they're elusive because they're nonexistent but that just my opinion. the bulk of independents voters are not swing voters. they lean one way or the other. Democrats should do a better job on messaging and policy to get the leaners firmly in their camp. forget the vacillating "swing voter" if they truly exist. the leaners more than make up for them.
for the record, i am registered as NPP. that does not make me a swing voter.
Well, one thing I agree with...
Swing voters are not Independent voters, by definition. Indeed, many true Swing Voters are registered R's or D's.
And you are absolutely right, the vast majority of self-identified independents do tend to lean one way or the other (usually depending on who they work with or socialize with).
The true swing voters are the ones who are responsible for the movement we see in the polls after a spate of bad headlines for one or the other candidate.
Rest assured, they do indeed exist and they do determine every national election.
Another point of agreement: if the Dems do a better job of messaging, they will not only be able to activate some of those Independent leaners, but also bring along most of those swing voters, as well...
The area in which we are not yet in agreement is in how the messaging ought to be improved to achieve all of the above.
James Kroeger
Elections are being won or lost via
complete and utter disenfranchisement.
No offense, I'm sure your treatise from 2004 was valid then. But that was 12 years ago. I don't want to hear about "swing voters" and "strategy", that is way too far in the weeds to be going when nobody can even verify the accurate vote totals because someone is fucking around with the proprietary tallying coding in the back end of the machinery.
Wow...really?
I must say that I'm disappointed to hear that.
Dishonest elections practices can certainly make every other consideration seem utterly futile, but I have to tell ya, it still seems reasonable to me for us to try to improve our overall understanding of the political landscape in which we are trying to operate.
It it's all utterly hopeless, then I don't know what makes sense for any of us to talk about...
James Kroeger
It's kind of true though, James
Not that we shouldn't be talking strategy - but part of that strategy needs to be focused on making sure votes are accurately counted, and the election outcome reflects the way people actually voted - or else what's the point?
I certainly don't disagree...
...with your point. After having heard concerns/alarms expressed re: elections practices and voter fraud for now decades, I am beginning to wonder if it might not be true that all is lost with respect to our purported democracy and that perhaps all of our activities are all utterly in vain.
I thought surely after the 2000 election theft that the Democrats, at least, would be all over this issue until it got resolved, but my impression today is that the current reliance on computers to tally the vote now gives 'the authorities' the MEANS to generate whatever outcomes they wish.
I guess that makes my essay on another topic just a little too optimistic in a way, doesn't it?
James Kroeger
The vast majority of our energy
needs to be focused on getting the ballots counted accurately. What else can possibly matter more than that?
People can still talk strategies, but if things change significantly once we can actually verify all ballots, a strategy from 2004 might be somewhat moot. Particularly when it comes to "swing" voters--frankly, I have always found that concept to be rather mythical anyway, but this far out from your original research in 2004, it's not unrealistic to believe it would need to be redone anyway.
I don't think the issue is issues
Candidates do in fact talk about issues, even the dumb ones. The media, though, has had interest in the issues only to the point that they can write a dramatic story.
If we want to engage in the hypothetical situation of Bernie going forward, what separates him from the rest is the complete lack of nastiness from his campaign. For the entirety of our country's history, candidates and their surrogates in the media have reveled in the nastiness of political caricatures. Bernie has a complete lack of allies in the mainstream media, and virtually no mouthpieces to do his dirty work. Hence, no dirty work. No Claire McCaskill, John Lewis, NPR, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, WaPo, NYT, etc. The media, both rationally and cravenly, have chosen to ignore his stories since there is no drama for them to hype. No "Oh no Bernie didn't," no "Bernie said what?," no Bernie twitter wars.
What has been covered so far has been the dirt tossed at him by the Clintonian machine. His shockingly restrained, mature responses to the dirt has nor been covered. It's just our culture. Who gets attention is who will do anything to get it. This applies to nonsense and to issues. Trump has talked about foreign policy, trade, immigration, guns, etc. Issues are out there in the public discourse. But they are out there because he he spits out childish jibberish that demonizes one group against another. Again, the key thing is drama and negativity.
A good description of what we've seen....
There are definitely certain aspects of the way Bernie has run his campaign that would have projected well for him vs. Trump. But...
...I must confess that I was hoping that his evident restraint vs. Clinton would not be an indication of what we would see in the general election because I'm extremely doubtful he would have benefited from it. Emotion is a very important part of this calculus, something I'll be exploring in my follow up essay....
James Kroeger
Sure, it is.
Great policies equal great politics.
Well....
I don't know how to tell you this, but the political left has been on the right side of the issues for an awful long time, but it has experienced a lot of losing over the past few decades to the political forces serving the corporate elites.
There are reasons why this is true...
James Kroeger
I take offense when people tell me "god bless you."
Please don't do it again. You don't know me.
I regret having offended you...
I'll fix it...
James Kroeger
Thank you.
Thank you.
What we need is to get our 'message' out to the community. We
need coordinated community involvement. We need to get on radio talk shows. Get people on the Sunday crapfests and on PBS (Charlie Rose, etc.) and the Friday week end programs. We need to persuade our fellow citizens that there are better ways and there are better people to fix what's wrong in our country today.'Grudge' and identity politics are killing our country.
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa