The immediate Brexit Fallout
Submitted by gjohnsit on Fri, 06/24/2016 - 11:44am
The price of gold in British Pounds jumped 22% overnight.
Thomas Cook suspends online currency transactions.
Dark pool trading gets shut down.
The Brexit result sparked a global equity selloff and set off a turbulent open for the London stock market, propelling trading volume as much as 700 percent higher than normal and slowing some opening stock auctions. Morgan Stanley’s dark pool briefly went offline during London’s morning, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named, citing confidentiality.
In the U.S., Deutsche Bank AG temporarily shut off outside brokers and market makers in its dark pool, SuperX, according to separate people familiar with the matter. The bank told outside market makers that they would be prohibited from trading in SuperX on Friday until further notification, while large institutional orders can still be matched in the pool. SuperX is the fourth-largest dark pool in the U.S. by trading volume, according to Financial Industry Regulatory Authority data.
European bank stocks got destroyed.
Bank stocks were hard hit, with the U.K.'s Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland both ending the session around 18 percent lower.
European banks headquartered outside of the U.K. also fell steeply. Shares of Greek and Italian banks, which were already under pressure because of concerns about their bad debt piles, were notably poor performers.
Risk on European periphery bonds spiked
Italy’s anti-immigrant and euroskeptic Northern League will start a petition calling for a law that allows a referendum on whether the country wants to exit the European Union, its leader said on Friday.
In a news conference following the announcement of the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU, Northern League’s head Matteo Salvini said that it was time to give Italians a vote on their EU membership, as the citizens of Britain have just done.
“This vote was a slap in the face for all those who say that Europe is their own business and Italians don’t have to meddle with that,” Mr. Salvini said.
Comments
I really fail to see how this vote result is a good thing.
I've seen at least one comment here saying "well, the PTB think this vote is shit, so it must be good", but I'm really not getting the upsides to Britain leaving the EU.
Britain's going to suffer for it, the EU will all but implode. Please, I am seriously asking: can someone(s) please explain how Brexit is a good thing?
Kthxbai.
I miss Colorado.
Just so all y'all know:
I am legitimately asking the question and not trying to be a motherfucker in doing so.
If anyone has some answers (gjohnsit maybe?), that would seriously be cool. I am all about the learning so, please, teach away!
I miss Colorado.
In the near term it is negative
In the long term it is good because when a labour government is elected it can act decisively against austerity.
and why do you think a labour government will be elected? /nt
So if we aren't psychics we
So if we aren't psychics we have no right to democracy? If we can't predict the future we should accept oligarchy? That is a really weak argument.
and why do you think it wouldn't?
Just like in the US, the British political factions take turns running the government. There is no single-party permanent rule there.
because the only things that will be allowed to govern
is the market, greed and profit for the sake of "jobs", and whatever the people feel they should get, they never will, independent even of there being a labor government being elected or not. I don't believe it's a party thing anymore. Corbyn won't have enough supporters as much as Sanders won't have right now. The powers to be will fight against real social solutions for the little people as they always did. And the so-called left, who pretend or try to fight for socialist little people's interests, will be diluted, co-opted, divided and deceived.
All the member states in Eastern Europe want the EU unity to be maintained. They couldn't care less about Oligarchy chatting leftists somewhere. I trust nothing anymore, just trust in warfare that will pretty easily engaged in. And who knows by what kind of players.
The EU is another animal than the US. And somehow I think the instincts of leftist Americans are not fine tuned enough to get "instinctive reactions of the little people" in Europe right.
But then, I am totally confused and tired and disgusted about all that talk I hear and read. I should not continue to try to read anything right now.
I am not sure it's a good thing in the long run
if the EU completely dissolves. I don't see that as a positive, really.
I miss Colorado.
I don't see any value in a
I don't see any value in a political order with a Parliament that can't make laws, and a Constitution that can't change. I suspect you aren't sure because you don't know what the EU is about or what it has done. You don't live there, and don't pay attention to it.
That was vaguely insulting.
I think I'll make my shexit.
I miss Colorado.
On the shexit --
I vote "Remain."
'French theory is a product of US cultural imperialism." -- Gabriel Rockhill
EU = TPP
there are some things that make it easier for better-off Europeans if the EU stays united and strong. The moaning, guilt=tripping and shaming are too similar to the way they're used here.
The first time I saw anything like this was when Congress considered passing a special tax on yachts and the argument against it was "think of the poor workers who build the yachts. Millionaires/Billionaires would stop buying yachts and those poor workers would be out of a job". That was pretty mild to how guilt-tripping has developed. Now it's "you're disenfranchising African American voters if you keep wanting Bernie as the nominee" or "don't look at the banksters and what they've done to Greece, you're a racist who hates immigrants if you want Brexit (or Grexit or Swexit or Departugal or Czechout)".
EU = Articles of Confederation
Perhaps the EU was a necessary first step, but weak Federalism simply doesn't work. Even when reorganized under the Constitution it took the Civil War to convince people that they were Americans, not Virginians or Pennsylvanians. As long as the Germans think of themselves as a different people than the Greeks, they'll resent sending them money. California always pays more into the Federal government than they get back, Mississippi always receives more than they pay in, and it will always be that way. We don't get fussed about it because we are all Americans (at least on a good day). EU countries still have their own military, the UK has (had now, I suppose) their own currency, they all preserved their respective languages. A little cooperation is nice, but you either need to go with strong Federalism or agree to stay as little state/countries.
So the more I think about it, this was the right move for the UK. Hopefully many other EU countries opt out, and the whole thing collapses. Creative destruction. Then they can try EU Phase 2.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
"Creative destruction" a very clever phrase.
The analogy of the EU to the US when the Articles of Confederation was the law of the land is perfect. Back in the 50s and 60s when "One Worlders" talked about globalization, that talk was, I believe, inspired by a desire for the end of endless war--not for enrichment of corporate greed-holders. Subsequently with NAFTA, CAFTA, and their so-called "free trade" partnerships, the corporations have been enriched at the expense of the 99% in all the involved countries. So the new globalization shares only one thing in common with the old One World ideals--a name.
Couple of points, Shiznit --
1. The euro common-currency idea has put a stranglehold on mid- to long-term economic planning for individual countries within the Eurozone (national budget deficits highly restricted; international exchange rates set in concrete by a bunch of banksters in Brussels; etc.) so that countries suffering dire economic travails (Greece, anyone?) are extremely limited in their options for dealing with economic calamity.
2. The strongest economies in the Eurozone tend to have the greatest input into economic and political decision-making (= Germany). Hence, if the German chancellor decides that "economic austerity" is the way to go (e.g., because this policy drives up the value of German exports, while reducing the degree to which foreign debt can be deflated), then austerity it will be. The entire Eurozone has been dancing to the drumbeat of German "austerity" for nearly a decade now; and most are tired of it. The middle- and lower-income classes in Great Britain finally had enough, since they had borne the brunt of the pain in that commonwealth (imposition and continuation of "austerity" was one of the late, unlamented Cameron's signature issues). Of course, "austerity" is singularly popular in "The City", as it also represents a mechanism for hoovering pounds up to the banksters and their patrons; but (as the Brits have discovered to their joy), the middle- and working-classes outnumber the banksters - their votes still seem to matter (not so much the case in the U.S., apparently).
OTOH, Parliament is composed almost exclusively of landed gentry and bankster flunkies; so I suspect that in the near term we will see some delaying actions in the implementing legislation to separate Great Britain from the Eurozone; and in the mid- and longer term, possible additional referenda to enable the British people to "more clearly express their sentiments"; "reconsider their rash judgement", etc., basically in an attempt to overturn the current Brexit decision. These actions will be instigated (covertly) on behalf of the Brit "elites" (because of course they profit enormously from the status quo) - the ordinary Brit -- middle- and working-class -- not so much.
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
Thank you so much for this!
I really appreciate the primer. Most Americans are not well-versed in European politics and, while I know the major plot points, I never claimed to know the ins and outs.
I miss Colorado.
Sure, Shiznit - hang in there.
I have relatives in Europe, so follow things fairly closely. (Stepdaughter in Austria; so everyone was shaken when the -- actual Nazis -- almost pulled off a coup last month.)
Come back to Colorado one of these days! I work in the water bidness; and it turns out that "grow" is one of the "growth" industries in the State -- each of the newly-arrived marijuana entrepeneurs has to obtain a water right to "grow" - and in that bidness, the water right (a critical ingredient for successful "growing") is allocated by the number of plants(!), unlike other agriculture, in which the water right is allocated by the number of acres.
Bet you could work as a "pruner", "plant manager", or "harvester" -- what a world --
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
I guess that the short answer, Shiznit
is that the Brexit vote appears to represent a loud repudiation of the "Golden Rule" in its current bankster construction -- "The guy with the gold makes the rules". Ordinary Brits took a look at the current situation, considered their longer-term prospects, and decided that they had taken enough of golden rule-making --
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
I'm curious as to your thoughts about
the the reported age gap in the the Remain/Leave votes. (Younger voters, by a much larger margin, voted to Remain in the EU than older voters did. It's striking to see the graph.)
I miss Colorado.
Not too surprising
Younger voters have known nothing but the EU and it represents their status quo. Older voters may have had doubts when it first happened, and unless they prospered under the new order their doubts only grew. Plus the whole pining for the halcyon days of yore when we were all young together thing.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Being in the EU does not
Being in the EU does not prevent them from moving decisively against austerity.
Not wanting to move decisively against austerity would prevent that. Also being a member of the Eurozone would prevent that ... but the UK is not a member of the eurozone. They already have the freedom within the EU to move against austerity.
-- Virtually, etc. B)
Shiz, please do take a look at Richard Seymour on this
http://www.leninology.co.uk/2016/06/eu-referendum-vote.html
'French theory is a product of US cultural imperialism." -- Gabriel Rockhill
Thanks, going there now.
I miss Colorado.
This!
I miss Colorado.
FWIW, I agree that this vote is a bad thing
But it is a symptom of the deep dissatisfaction with the neoliberal policies that have been forced on much of the European population by the technocrats of the EU. The right wing has been playing the anti-immigration card for decades, but as austerity policies have been forced on the people of Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc., they provide a convenient excuse for the deterioration of the economic status of the middle class.
Thus the rise of the right wing parties in much of Europe. Let's blame it on the refugees who are taking our jobs is the refrain. It is Trump in a nutshell. While Brexit may throw a monkey wrench into the neoliberal agenda, it will greatly harm things like environmental protections, the free flow of people, the common currency, etc. It may ultimately lead to the dissolution of the EU, which would be a great force for destabilization of the world economy. Ergo, I see it as all bad.
I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings
When given a choice between slow suicide...
and a leap of faith into the unknown...
A lot of people will choose the leap of faith. US learned that, and that's why our elections NEVER offer us a real choice.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
Cameron Is Out As PM
There may be a lot of pain with the Brexit results, but, for me personally, I'm glad Cameron resigned first thing this morning.
A Greek friend sent the first e-mail of the day. She's not happy, viewing it as "giving" to much power to Germany.
Germany already had nearly all of the economic
and political power in the Eurozone. As long as the EU doesn't dissolve, that situation is unlikely to change --
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
Thanks for this, man.
This was pretty much my read of the situation as well, but I wanted to make sure I wasn't losing it.
I miss Colorado.
Just because the PTB are for it doesn't make it bad
Personally, as a US/UK dual national, I am discouraged. Europe has a long history of violence and mutually unintelligible languages don't help. A common economic structure was one of the few things that everyone might be able to get behind, but that is now dying.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
A common economic structure
A common economic structure based on neoliberal austerity and privatization is a good thing? If the EU wants to hold itself together, they need to democratize their political process.
It's better than open warfare
I don't disagree with you the nature of the economic system, but I would caution Americans about transplanting their national experience to Europe. You have had only one war on your territory in the last 200 years; Europe has had many. This is in part why so many fled to the US - and why the US was often so determined historically to avoid getting entangled in Europe. Burning everything down sounds appealing when you have little experience with fire.
I do disagree with you about the democratic experience in Europe. As a dual national, I've always felt that the point of the American Federal system was to discourage democracy, not encourage it. A parliamentary system is much closer to a one-person-one-vote than the baroque American states rights system - and has demonstrably higher turnout. No, if my countrymen have decided to do something unwise, it is largely their own fault.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Oh?
Native Americans give a shout out.
I hear that
and I'm not sure how to respond. I think there is a difference here - not moral of course, but maybe of scale and intensity?
I'm just trying to explain why it might look different to those from the other side of the pond. Maybe it shouldn't, but I think it does.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Europe has been a mess since the Romans were defeated
by Herman the German (aka Arminius) in the fifth century. Before that the Grecian archipelago was in a constant state of warfare for centuries until Alexander came along and crushed them all. Language and warfare are two mutually exclusive concepts. One can have war within same language groups (e.g., Greece, South America). There can also be peace between different cultures (although those may be more likely to be breached than cultures sharing the same language.)
In the spirit of the enemy of my enemy is my friend, the fact that European Banksters bemoan Brexit, then that must be a good thing.
There are all sorts of financial ramifications which I do not understand--for instance what is "dark money"? My only experience of the phrase has to do with covert US campaign funding.
One person one vote for an MP
One person one vote for an MP that can't make laws, hardly makes it more Democratic than the US. The EU didn't exist till the 90s really, so I don't buy the idea that it is the only thing that stopped warfare. If anything conflict in Europe has ramped up in the last 10 years. Furthermore, saying that undemocratic neoliberalism is as good as it gets, is not a lefty position.
The EEC was formed in 1958
Link. The EU is merely the latest step in post -WWI attempts to have a saner environment, not the first.
And I never said "neoliberalism is as good as it gets". I said that opposing it is not the only consideration.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
(Five) (Six) (Seven) (Eight) Nine, minimum …
since the murrican "revolution"
War of 1812 (and subsequent attempts to take over Canada by force; something of a thwarted land-grab)
War of Texas Independence (1835 - 1836 - a pure land-grab; fought against Mexico on territory that now is part of the United States)
Mexican-American War of 1848 (a pure land-grab; fought to some degree against Mexico on territory that now is part of the United States, and includes all of California)
U.S. Civil War (1858 ["Kansas"] to the present; an attempted "property-grab", not entirely thwarted, and not always associated with land) - fought all across the globe, and perhaps one in a numerous sequence of "World Wars" (c.f., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederate_States_Navy); never concluded decisively
"Indian Wars" (circa 1620 to the present; a pure land-grab) - fought all across the Americas, and never concluded decisively - the embattled native population is still alive (sort of)
Spanish-American War (1898 to present; a pure land-grab) - fought all across the globe, and perhaps another in the series of "World Wars"; never concluded decisively, as the U.S maintains a powerful presence (sometimes, absolute ownership) in most of the territory seized during that particular land-grab, often against local, vocal opposition (c.f., Phillipine Insurrection, 1899 - 1902 -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine%E2%80%93American_War)
"Mexican Expedition"/Mexican Revolution (1916 - 1917) - Pancho Villa invades Arizona! (Guess those border-breaching fantasies may not be so far off --) Another attempted land-grab, this time frustrated by an elusive band of banditos --
"World War II" -- 1941 attack against the most heavily utilized U.S. military installation in the Pacific "sphere", leading to mass incarceration of a totally blameless (and constitutionally-deprived) civilian population. (Oh, and BTW, the Hawai'ian archipelago had been "annexed" [read: "captured"] by the U.S. in 1893 - 1898 - another pure land-grab)
... also "World War II" -- Japanese invasion of Alaskan islands (and subsequent long-term struggle to move them out; 1942 - 1944). U.S. subsequently constructs numerous military installations across the sub-Arctic and Arctic stretches of the largest contiguous piece of U.S. territory; so extensive is the U.S. presence that vice-presidential candidate can see putative enemy territory ("Russia") from back door.
Let's see -- what have I missed? a lot more land-grabs in there, certainly --
When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.
dying
It's really been clean dead for about a generation now. Ask any Greek citizen on the street.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
There are always winners and losers.
I think this is probably a disaster for most people in England. The thing that is scary is that no one knows exactly what the second and third order effects will be. I would tend to wager on the side that this will be bad for the UK, the EU and the U.S. in the medium term. e.g. next 5 to 10 years.
What I'd hope is that world leaders would come to their senses about austerity and do everything possible to triage the damage and end austerity measures in EU in particular. Although the economic and political elites in the EU, the UK, and the U.S. to a lesser extent are still oblivious about the damage that the economic crisis has inflicted on millions. It's doubtful they will learn the lesson now.
It's no consolation for people in the UK, but for foreign tourists, the UK will be a much more affordable destination -- especially if Scotland splits.
Inside England this could be good for right-wing forces -- especially if Scotland leaves. I'm sure that some domestic industries will probably benefit if there is less competition from foreign markets. There is a chance for more control over local affairs, albeit less influence in the global arena.
"I'm sure that some domestic
"I'm sure that some domestic industries will probably benefit if there is less competition from foreign markets."
This is assuming a given level of national income. But as incomes drop in England and Wales, having a larger share of a smaller pie is not necessarily a larger slice of pie.
And of course, the fix to a sharp drop in incomes in England and Wales is for Little Britain to join the European Free Trade Area to get access to the EU market ... but of course the trade off is giving the EU access to their market, so there goes the opportunity for domestic industry protection.
Now, Little Britain could pursue expansionary fiscal policies to avoid some of those impacts ... but they could do that today, and at the same time remain the UK, while being a member of the EU. The UK simply is not under the same constraints as Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy (etc.) ... because the UK retained its own currency when the Euro was established.
-- Virtually, etc. B)
One undeniable upside: TTIP is dead
The EU is a brutally anti-democratic institution that is run by corporate lobbyists and is economically unsustainable without a system for cycling funds back from the exporters to the importers. It is already collapsing, and the Brexit result is more of a symptom than a cause. Typically, the EU doesn't really pay attention to referenda, and it will be interesting to see if this can actually take.
Is this a good thing or a bad thing?
I don't know enough about it to have an opinion. Yet I've seen some progressives/liberals whom I respect say it's a good thing and others from that same group say it's a bad thing.
Seems it's a wake up call
Not good that it had to come this way, but Britain's leaders, like many other western nations, are ignoring the concerns their citizens have about economic globalization and corporate control of governments.
"If you can't eat their food, drink their booze, take their money and then vote against them you've got no business being in Congress."
This the way I see it...
Maybe like doing the wrong thing for the right reasons? Strip away the xenophobia and what you have left is people are tired of seeing globalization with no real benefits. What good is it to have a Whole Foods if you don't have a job to go in there? The 1/10 of 1% have been mining wealth all over the world as a result of these global trade policies. In order to keep the populace under control, they breed xenophobia and hate. When that comes and bites them in the ass, they are always shocked by it.
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
Agree
It's what happens when political leaders ignore the plight of people they're supposed to represent. When they ignore the impact on their non-wealthy constituents of their horrible policies.
It's similar to the way the Establishment Dems are behaving - aggressively fighting back against the interests of 45% of their party voters. It only leads to disaster. So unnecessary.
"If you can't eat their food, drink their booze, take their money and then vote against them you've got no business being in Congress."
That disaster...
Is named Donald Trump. If the established Dems had any brains, they should be very scared of what just happened.
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
From the daily news articles about Trump (all bad)
I think it is highly likely now that the Republican Party will Dump Trump at their convention. They don't need him, they have Hillary Clinton.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
I see it the same way
President Obama said today that Brexit was all about globalization.
He's right...
He is also culpable.
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
His press conference speech sounds more like a
...corporate bullshit generator
http://cbsg.sourceforge.net/cgi-bin/live
11th dimensional chess - never was a thing
It's always been tiddlywinks.
Weird Al!
Compensated Spokes Model for Big Poor.
People weren't given an alternative in 2015.
In 2015 Labour, Conservatives and the Liberal Dems were all arguing about what they were going to cut. No one really questioned the need for budget cuts. The media were taking economic austerity as a given too. This in John Maynard Keynes home country.
British stocks actually did much better than southern Europe
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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
My thoughts- this is a good thing
The reason I provide this opinion is because the people decided not the elites or establishment. If you noticed nearly all big names and establishment supported the EU; thereby, they wanted the status quo- the rich get richer. This crap of doom and gloom is always a failed tactic and never works and nearly always wrong. Finally, it remove any extra and unneeded layer of government. If the EU was to be the government of all Europe then guess what get rid of all borders, languages, political systems, armies, and all other country centric entities and have 1 freaking government. This hybrid oversight government body was doing not one any good- except the poorest countries, but at the expense of the wealthier countries. Please do not give me the line about security- that was NATO has done.
One more great thing, it really should have Hillary shaking in her boots- because people are tired of the same line of stagnation and struggling to stay afloat- time for change. Britain is the 5th largest economy in the world time for them to flexible their muscle and roar. I am not a Brit, but I respect their fortitude and courage- "Never Give up"
A progressive friend of mine in Brussels understands Brexit
We did significant computer business 15 years ago and we stayed in touch. To give you an idea of his progressiveness, he sent money via the web to the Bernie campaign.
He posted this on Facebook today;
The political revolution continues
It sounds just like the DNC!
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
There is no way to know if it is good or bad.
Time is the only thing that will tell us.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Not authoritative, but some comments
The argument against the EU goes back to the 1970s and the "small is beautiful" movement, the gist of which was that the smaller the institution the more democratic, the larger the more authoritarian and corrupt. While philosophically valid practical reality quickly debunked the idea - smaller institutions are also cheaper to corrupt and easier to extort.
Jeremy Corbyn (on Democracy Now!: http://www.democracynow.org/2016/6/21/jeremy_corbyn_why_i_am_voting ) said some interesting things. He pointed out that the EU has done some constructive things, (something I think Cameron and Blair cannot say) but that's not my point. He also said what I have been saying for years, that employers have been exploiting immigrant labor to lower wages and turn public opinion against working people, and by denying this obvious (albeit superficial and misleading) reality we only fuel the racist right, making them seem to be the only ones who are "standing up against it".
As for the immediate term market meltdown I suggest something a money manager for JP Morgan told me: Let's say that JP bought a stock at $90. The stock rises to $100, in no small part because JP bought a lot of it. The market then "crashes" in no small part because JP sells off at $100 - lowering the price to $80. JP then buys back the stock it just sold, for $80. It then "rebounds" back up to $100. JP makes $10 on the "crash" and $20 on the "rebound".
On to Biden since 1973