California Schemin' - A Tale of 3 County Tallies
So the internet is a'buzz regarding the irregularities and oddball events which occurred during California Primary Election Day. Took people maybe 12 hours or so to determine the amount of votes which have yet to be counted (something like 30% of all votes cast).... other astute individuals to note that traditionally conservative counties like SD and Orange actually outperformed progressive/liberal strongholds such as the SF Bay Area, when it came to Bernie votes.....then yet a few more people to put out the word that paper receipt tallies are/were actually on display at polling places throughout the state (and that a sampling of these receipts indicated the reported precinct votes to be way off).
I will leave that stuff to others, since they have done more footwork than I. What I will report here is that I was avidly following the CA Dem Primary results as they came in, taking screenshots at various intervals, and keeping tabs on particular counties to see how the tallies were trending.
During the eve, I observed occurrences which had appeared in other Primaries: Statewide Precincts Reporting percentages briefly appearing at a certain percentage, then replaced with numbers of a lesser percentage (and corresponding vote tallies changing along with them); and interminable delays in movement/updating of tallies from counties which showed hillary Clinton winning by wide margins.
Stuff like this should seem like an old, familiar friend to any 2016 poll-watching geek by now.
But, for the sake of brevity (ha !), I am just going to mention here a quick take of 3 counties, at the very END of the Primary tally: the Central Coast county of Monterey, the county of Riverside, directly east of LA and Orange; and the relatively small and overlooked Kings County, inland Central California (and abutting the town of Visalia, where Bernie paid a surprise Campaign stop).
In summary, like most counties south of the Bay Area, none of these were showing well for Bernie all evening (which to me was a bit shocking particularly for Monterey, which has the sort of demographics akin to a Bernie-popular place). Thus, probably Bernie-watchers for the most part took these off their radar early on, instead concentrating their hopes on the Bay Area, the North, and LA.
So...by the end of the evening of 6/7, results were showing neither Kings nor Monterey nor Riverside had fully reported (Monterey holding at 57.3% precincts reporting thru most of evening, and overnight; Kings stalled at 92.3 most of eve and again, overnight; Riverside stuck at 61.2% seemingly forever). LA & San Diego were the other counties where results did not 'fully' post/report until 6/8.
The next morning, 6/8, the results came in for all of these counties - in succession, within around an hour of each other.
The results in all at first would not appear to raise any flags... because their bottom lines were the same as they were the evening of 6/7: Bernie just didn't do well there.
But something seemed odd.
Monterey:
A county which throughout the evening had been showing Bernie getting trounced to the tune of 60%-39% (57.3% precincts reporting: 22,249 total votes reported), now had its remaining 42.7% precincts report their tallies (8059 total votes):
4275 for Bernie...
3734 for Clinton...
50 for "Other".
This translates into 53%-46.3% Bernie.
So, a County which (prior to race being called by AP) had been trending a huge 21 point Hillary win...now showed in its remaining votes in, a 7-point advantage for Bernie Sanders.
That is a 28-point difference between votes reported pre-AP calling of race, and post-AP calling pf race. 28 points.
Kings:
Kings reported initially rather quickly, then just stayed at 92.3% precincts reporting for hours and hours and into the morning of 6/8. Like Monterey, its initial public results were not something I cared to revisit more than needed, but I did keep tabs as eve wore on and the county remained incompletely reported.
At 92.3%...Bernie was getting walloped: 60.4%-37.1%, a 23.3-point disadvantage with 5,121 total votes reported.
The morning of 6/8, the remaining totals finally came in. What struck me while comparing the 100% totals to the previous nights' 93% totals was that Bernie had jumped 2-1/2% just by virtue of the final 7% of precincts reporting. Hey, that's sumthin', no !?
Breakdown: the last 14 Kings precincts reporting (1502 votes), tallied:
646 votes for Bernie...
830 for clinton...
26 for "Other".
A 55%-43% Bernie disadvantage. 12 points.
A double-digit difference to previously reported tallies. Half the gap which had been reported prior to AP calling the race.
Riverside:
Through most of the eve of 6/7, Riverside held at 61.2% reporting, 111,839 total votes - and like the aforementioned, showed Bernie getting steamrolled: 60.9%-38%....a 22.9-point gap. Oomph.
Then, the AM of 6/8, roll in the remaining 38.8% of precinct tallies; that's 11,303 additional votes:
5555 for Bernie Sanders...
5669 for hillary clinton...
89 for "Other".
This breaks down to a 49.1%-49.3% Bernie disadvantage. Or a .2% gap.
That is a 22.7% difference from the Riverside votes reported prior to AP calling the race.
These were my observations of a small snippet of the CA 2016 Dem Primary results reporting.
I am sharing them.
Oftentimes, folks will pay attention to the states, counties, cities and districts where the resulting wins/losses were very close, or where the final official margins were razor-thin.
Can't say that about most CA Counties, but that doesn't necessarily mean they should not be examined again.
As always, thanks for reading. Comments/feedback appreciated.
George
Comments
i live in Riverside County
it's a huge county. it takes 2-1/2 hours just to drive from Blythe, at the Arizona border, to Riverside where the county voter registrar's office is located and that's going 70mph all the way on I-10. small rural backroads may take even longer. i volunteered once before as a poll worker and i seem to recall that all the voting info had to be transported to Riverside. there is time spent tallying after polls closed and then the drive to be made from the furthest reaches of the county. if you account for a 3-4 hour delay that could be why Riverside stopped at 61% for a while.
Thanks for explaining time differential
Appreciate your input. Yup, Cally is BIG. It wasn't so much the time lag which got my attention; more the fact that the later-tallied vote #'s beared little resemblance to the the ones tallied earlier.