What is Trump doing right?
First of all, consider the polls.
Bloomberg Poll.
Billionaire Donald Trump is lapping the Republican field, a new Bloomberg Politics national poll shows, as two prominent governors, Chris Christie of New Jersey and John Kasich of Ohio, rank in the top 10 ahead of the first presidential debate.
Trump was backed by 21 percent of registered voters who identify as Republicans, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 10 percent and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 8 percent.
Businessman Donald Trump continues to gain ground in the race for the Republican nomination. What’s more, the number of GOP primary voters saying they would at least consider backing Trump has more than doubled in the last two months.
Trump receives the backing of 26 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters -- up from 18 percent in mid-July and 11 percent a month ago. That’s not only the highest level of support for Trump, but it’s also the highest any GOP candidate has received since the Fox poll began asking the question in December 2013.
Donald Trump is doing something right. What is it?
I can't ask this question on GOS without getting stupid answers, so I'm asking it here.
I know one thing for certain: it is important to understand. Trump has tapped into something, and I doubt that it is what the people on GOS would tell you it is.
If it was racism then David Duke would be leading the polls.
Perhaps we should ask The Donald.
"I wish good luck to all the Republican candidates that traveled to California to beg for money etc. from the Koch Brothers... Puppets?"
The average Republican voter might be a lot smarter than the opinion on GOS. They might be tickled by Trump's tweet.
Maybe we should ask Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
"I don’t think you should underestimate how frustrated people are. Mr. Trump has tapped into some of that."
I think only Democratic voters are sold on the idea of voting for lesser evils. Republicans are tiring of it, and independents won't have any of it.
The approval ratings of our federal government are awful. For decades that hasn't meant much because the game is so rigged, but eventually they will reach a tipping point where it does matter.
That's bad news for Hillary in the general election.
Comments
I think you may be right
People are dissatisfied with the entire political system and so they are willing to try anything, even Donald Trump. Certainly there is a degree of racism involved, but I really think it is more of a statement against the entire system. The idea that we could possibly end up with a Clinton versus Bush match up is repugnant to a lot of people, regardless of party affiliation.
Perhaps some just want to blow up the entire system and Trump is certainly a keg of dynamite. I have seen it on a local level. Probably one of the most (in)famous was the late Jim Fair of Tampa and Tallahassee, Florida.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
even avid political watchers like me
are so disheartened, we just can't look anymore. It is bad for my health to look too closely. However, a recent conversation with my cousin really made me feel better. People know everything is broken.
So we are in THE dangerous moment when Hilters emerge.
It is also the moment when something better can emerge. Can, but will it? Are the conditions right? I don't know.
May the dolphins, whales and furry things inherit the world. Humans, unless we do an about face, have just about proven we don't deserve this beautiful planet.
Ok, I'll jump in here,
having had a couple recent conversations with Trump supporters. They love the bluster. His tell-it-like-it-is bluntness strikes them as leadership. He's willing to tell people to fuck off and that has an appeal to a certain type of person. Fortunately, a huge majority of conservatives I know think he's an egotistical blowhard and a complete joke as a presidential candidate. I think the 25% that support him now are all he's going to get. As the herd thins, support will increase for the others remaining in the field. Once it's down to just a few (Bush and Walker imo) he'll be passed in the polls. If he's still polling at 25%, his ego may force an independent run. We'll see.
Oh! I hope you are right about
the Third Party run... he would totally tank the Teapublican party...
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First Nations News
If he does run as an Independent,
it would surely help Dems.
I don't think he'll do it, unless he is intending to throw the race to FSC. (Which is not unthinkable--he's a contributor to both past Clinton and Schumer campaigns. When confronted about this, his reply was "I'm a businessman, of course, I give to both parties.")
Trump opposes cuts to entitlements, has supported single-payer, and is pro-life. That is one reason that some national reporters think that once the conservative Base gets beyond 'the optics,' his support will definitely diminish.
Of course, his stance on entitlements may be a strong enough enticement for some working class Repubs to stick with him.
(Heck, even Teapartiers are staunchly opposed to cuts to the social insurance programs--at least, Social Security.)
To be clear, I'm basically regurgitating analysis that I hear on XM Radio's POTUS Channel (Politics Of The United States, For The People Of The United States). I am in no way endorsing 'The Donald.'
[I'll probably post a blurb about his proposal for paying down the deficit and shoring up the Social Security Trust Fund--a wealth tax--but that, too, is not an endorsement of him, just one his stances.]
Mollie
"The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched. They must be felt with the heart."--Helen Keller
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Well, folks have NO idea
…that they are receiving entitlements.
I would expect working Republicans to have a "come to Jesus" moment if they saw this chart and discovered they were currently social welfare recipients:
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Thanks for the handy chart, Pluto! Already made a screenshot.
After we know whether the Repub Presidential Candidates were forced to address 'entitlement reform' [tomorrow evening], I'll probably have a couple of thoughts regarding this age-old conumdrum,
Mollie
"Every time I lose a dog, he takes a piece of my heart. Every new dog gifts me with a piece of his. Someday, my heart will be total dog, and maybe then I will be just as generous, loving, and forgiving."--Author Unknown
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Howard Beale plus Elmer Gantry equals Donald Trump
also some of those Republicans aren't bright.
(I know....some of the Democrats too, but that's a different but related topic)
Burncaster's best, I love his performance...
Onward, Christian Soldiers.
Ironic
Every time I saw Obama campaigning in 2008, all I could think of was Elmer Gantry.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Glamor and
the entrenched US view that we all can become rich...Trump epitomizes that GD meme that success is just around the corner, "The Century of Self." Materialism of the mind reinforced by Madison Avenue; everyday, everywhere, plus as said, he speaks his mind, a quality many appreciate.
As Mollie wrote the other day, watch one of the new Clinton ads rolling our--$2mil worth of syrup.
"Death Valley Days" a bromide for every problem.
It is a revolt.
People are fed up and angry. They want to stick it to the system. I think first and foremost, they are still pissed at the bankers for what they did and for not going to jail for it. Then the list with the rest of their grievances kicks in starting with the economy and jobs. If Bernie isn't on the ballot and Hillary and Trump are - I would have a really hard time resisting a big old sock to Hillary's nose and blowing the whole phony system to hell.
I can't point this out enough. The silence to this is shocking. Obama freely admits that he lies, and says it's no big deal because "it has been done forever". The system is corrupt. The politicians are for sale.
Bernie is honest and measured, and whatever is in Trump's head falls out his mouth. Both represent rebellion, just different goals and styles.
Thats my view.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Wow!
You said it better than I did! I regret that I have only two thumbs to give up for a thumbs up!
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I pretty much agree with this:
…and the rest of your first paragraph.
But, Donald Trump is not the champion of this issue. Social rights and economic justice are not among his issues.
I find the consciously-enlightened Iran Agreement to be an unfortunate example to prove that politicians (and President Obama) lie. In many ways, that agreement will finally shift the American trajectory away from the 60-year-long US policy of wholesale international murder. Its the most significant change toward diplomacy and human decency that I've seen in the US in my lifetime.
Why not use, instead, the Republican smear: "He lied when he said you can keep your health plan?" One can easily suspend rationality and embrace this as a lie.
Now, I definitely agree with you that, people are frustrated and anxious. They are disgusted by political platitudes. They want to lynch a boogyman, like Mexicans, as per Trump, who they can blame all their problems on. Any brown or godless or communist boogyman will do.
Donald Trump says exactly what he thinks — and in that sense, he doesn't lie. For example, there is absolutely nothing heroic about John McCain, or any of the fools who fight and die in the illegal and immoral US wars of aggression. People are sick of phony soldier worship. It's revolting.
I think so, too, in general. But if Israel said "jump," Bernie would back Israel's insane bombing of Iran in the twinkling of an eye. I don't trust religious extremists and people with "invisible" friends in the sky.
I believe Trump is popular because the American people know for a fact that nothing will change if anyone else — from either party — is elected.
Trump polls well because it's a lot like clapping for Tinkerbell. He's the only candidate who offers an alternative to the past 60 years of life under America's Neocon/military/corporate Junta government.
Every other candidate is a tool of the Junta. The viable ones are funded by the Junta. And those not funded by the Junta will have their "John Edwards" or "Howard Dean" moment — soon enough.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
please,
How do you forecast Bernie's mind or my mind or anyone's for that matter.
Sorry, this won't do.
Voting history in the Senate.
If you had a voting history in the Senate, I would probably be able to forecast a reliable prediction of your further actions based on your ideology.
I only have verified statistics to work from.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
verified....
peace to you, the journey is long; metamorphosis does happen, sing truthfully and all can be well. I'm still learning, too.
Hi Pluto - always nice to see you.
I know Donald Trump doesn't represent anything that doesn't reside under a rock. My childhood was spent in tough surroundings (relatively speaking), and it made me willing to push back even if I had to take a hit. That's how I feel about Trump and the entire batty GOP. The sooner we give Americans the government they deserve, the sooner we get the worst over and start to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. It's the old "gotta hit bottom before one can start to come up". So, let's kick out the crutches and get it over with. It's nuts, but there is titch of logic in there somewhere. Besides, it would make me very happy on an pure emotional level to make the Clintons and Obama eat it.
Speaking of Obama. I am for the Iran peace deal even if Putin and Kerry made him do it. I quoted him from there because that is where he admitted that he's condescending and lies like hell. This isn't 1990 and people are not as stupid today as they were then. I really resent his swan song farewell tour, which I see as a part of the 2016 campaign for the Democratic party. "Look! Look here! See, we support people and just not the banks." The climate proposals from Obama and Hillary are a joke. All he did about police brutality was take away a few of their toys, slap a camera on them, pardon 10 people, and walk away. Holder is worse than Obama.
If anybody can weather the political storm that is on the horizon, it should be Bernie. He is seasoned and, for a politician, clean. Is he where he ought to be on Israel? Probably not, but I really don't know. I am against war, but I am not a pacifist. I don't know enough about I/P and the middle east to even know who the bad guys are. I suspect its us. All I know is that Bernie is the best we've had since before Reagan, and I am going to support him (not that I think you are telling me anything to the contrary). While I think the GOP and their supporters need to be institutionalized, I absolutely loathe the Clintons and Obama for the self-serving, nest featherers they are. When your "friends" stab you in the back - even if the devil made them do it, it is time to find new ones. This is exactly how I intend to vote from now on.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
You are very persuasive.
I totally agree with your assessment.
When I put my cynicism and mistrust aside, Bernie's words speak for me.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Agreed...
Sanders and Trump ARE poles apart...AND their names are not Clinton or Bush....I think people are tired of those two families controlling things.
I would like to see a Trump vs Sanders televised national debate... I think Bernie should issue a challenge to him... Trump would not be able to resist....
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I agree. People are looking for something different.
They know they are being screwed so they are grasping at anything outside to save them. Unfortunately, putting a 1%er in the White House isn't going to do that, but at least they are trying.
There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties.. This...is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.--John Adams
Hey Karma
That was quite the brawl OPOL started at GOS. When they come out of their orange bubble, they're going to see a lot of backlash at BLM for how they are handling the issue. More stories pop up everyday on FB, and I'm not talking about in comments. If BLM is being co-opted by the Democratic party and the professional left to shore up what they see as Hillary's base, that's really low.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Yes and sadly, you can't get into any discussion about BLM
without being told you are whitesplaining etc. That moviemeister is the worst. She has appointed herself defender/spokesperson of all POC.
There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties.. This...is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.--John Adams
That's true. But I heard a poll quoted yesterday that
shows (for the most part), "unfavorables" this election cycle have a direct correlation to 'how long one's been a politician, or a Washington Insider.'
This is especially striking when it comes to Bush and Clinton. I think Bush is dead in the water. According to one poll, Jeb Bush's highly enthusiastic poll rating (among voters) was only "3 percent."
Yikes!
FSC's are better than that, but she's underwater in unfavorables, etc.
Bernie may be the exception. Pollsters speculate that this is partly because he's not known by 'everyone'--like Bush and Clinton. But, it's also because he's considered to be a political outsider, and therefore, not part of the problem.
Mollie
"The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched. They must be felt with the heart."--Helen Keller
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
I have been talking about her unfavorables since last summer
over at GOS. And they continue to rise. Here is the issue. She may be able to pull off the nomination, but how is she going to counter her high unfavorability in the general? I think a lot of DNC insiders are nervous about that. And now she is losing ground with white women and blacks.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/08/04/hillary-clinton-loses-ground-wi...
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
High negatives means Hillary is vulnerable
I seem to remember Markos writing about some other candidate with high negatives and saying how this means the candidate is vulnerable. It was years ago and I haven't been able to find it, but if someone could find it I would certainly enjoy writing a diary on GOS about it.
I've seen polls that show Hillary's negatives are actually higher than the number of people who said they would vote for her. Obviously that means that a bunch of her voters can be taken away from her very easily.
I totally agree
with your comment here gjohnsit.
The other thing is that high negatives are very hard to overcome. It gives the candidate very little room to grow and as you said, a lot of room to lose votes if there is a more viable candidate. That is why Sanders' numbers are so good in these polls. Yes, he is still very far behind, but he has very low negatives so he has a lot of room to grow. I would also argue that he has the potential to pick up a more crossover votes in the general than Hillary too because his message resonates with so many people. This is why the DNC and their operatives are pushing the meme that Sanders is not electable. Actually I believe his most difficult part of the campaign will be in the primary, not the general should he win the primary.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Bookies still think Trump is long odds
Still Hillary vs. Jeb
And 'bookies' are often correct.
If I can locate the video or audio, I hope to post the NH Forum that was sponsored by "No Labels" a couple of evenings ago. It was downright scary. Most candidates were fully on board with Bowles-Simpson, and very vocal and unapologetic about it.
[BTW, Trump skipped this Forum.]
Anyhoo, our Family is very interested in seeing how the topic of 'entitlements' is handled in the Presidential Debates. Could be that Republicans will try to avoid the topic entirely in the earlier debates--hoping to address it when/after Trump's eliminated. Guess we'll find out, soon enough.
Mollie
"The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched. They must be felt with the heart."--Helen Keller
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Bookies are realists.
The odds flow with the money and not the polls. Apparently, those supporting Trump's bid aren't willing to bet on it.