Welcome to Saturday's Potluck - May 13, 2023

“Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist.”
Pablo Picasso

A feeling of potential abrupt change has been ever presence in my life. The local environment provides stark examples of changes can last for centuries with little to no recovery.

(4.11 min)

Some subject a lot more scenery. Some of the volcanic flows are several thousand years old and still do not support plant life.
Newberry National Volcanic Monument: Volcanic Wonders of Oregon (56:44 min)(easy to understand at 1.5 speed)

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Our societies make choices to shape lives to adapt to local land conditions or radically change the landscape to fit the way we expect to live. Modern industrialized cultures for good or bad reshape their living environment.

A fascinating look at one of China's responses to their need for energy sources.

China’s EAST breakthroughs shorten path to fusion power Asia Times May 11, 2023 (part one)

Thanks in large part to the accomplishments of the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST), China has propelled itself to the forefront of international research on magnetic confinement fusion.
...
On April 12, 2023, EAST succeeded for the first time in maintaining a 100 million C° plasma for over six minutes in the dynamic state known as the “H-mode”, where “H” stands for “high confinement.” This specific plasma state has long been regarded as especially favorable to the stable confinement of plasmas in tokamak devices.
...
The best and probably unique practical solution to confining a plasma on a sustained basis, on Earth, is to suspend it inside a vacuum chamber using powerful magnetic fields, a process known as magnetic confinement. Putting it extremely simply, the charged particles making up the plasma are caught up in the magnetic field lines.

The leading design for achieving sustained magnetic confinement of a plasma is the tokamak, invented in 1950 by Soviet physicists Andrei Sakharov and Igor Tamm.

The innovative fire fueling China’s artificial sun Asia Times May 12, 2023 (part one)

EAST reactor puts China on fusion’s leading edge Asia Times May 13, 2023 (part one)

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Türkiye's (Turkey) election is Sunday and Western powers would like to see a new leader.

Turkish election is likely to disappoint the West Asia Times by M.K. Bhadrakumar May 12, 2023

Erdogan is a man of history with a formidable track record in power in consolidating civilian supremacy in a working democracy.

Kilicdaroglu, on the contrary, has nothing to show and never held an elected post. Yet, if Western capitals are dreaming about a Kilicdaroglu victory, it underscores the high stakes in Sunday’s election.

However, the paradox is, even if Kilicdaroglu is the winner, western powers shouldn’t expect an outright alignment of Turkish foreign policies with Western demands.
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The Western hope is that,given the alchemy of the rainbow coalition that may propel Kilicdaroglu to victory, he will be leading a weak government — unlike Erdogan’s assertive, stable government.
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Considering that President Biden is fully in the orbit of the influential Greek lobby in US politics (which lavishly funded his political career through decades), Kilicdaroglu will have no illusions while upholding claims of maritime boundaries, special economic zones or exploration of gas reserves in East Mediterranean.
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The Turkish neutrality in the Ukraine conflict cannot be understood as a “stand-alone” issue. In reality, geoeconomics has been a driving force in Turkish-Russian relationship. Whether Kilicdaroglu may or may not have uses for the Russian S-400 anti-missile system is a moot point, but he certainly cannot do without the $20 billion Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which Russia’s Rosatom is not only constructing but will also be operating in future.

The Turkish economy is partly built on the “German model” — Turkish companies use cheap energy from Russia to produce industrial products at competitive prices for the European market. Why would Kilicdaroglu emulate the folly of the present “trans-Atlanticist” leaders in Berlin to terminate cheap long-term energy supplies from Russia at the cost of deindustrialization?

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Bold gambits on the West Asian chessboard The Cradle by Pepe Escobar May 9, 2023

Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu has already made it plain that if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan retains power in the 14 May presidential elections, Ankara will neither impose sanctions on Russia nor violate the Montreux Convention, which forbids the passage of warships to and from the Black Sea in wartime.
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Erdogan’s chief security and foreign policy adviser, Ibrahim Kalyn, has aptly pointed out that there is no war between Russia and Ukraine; rather, it’s a war between Russia and the west with Ukraine serving as the proxy.

This is why the collective west is heavily invested in an “Erdogan must go” campaign, which is lavishly funded to propel an oddly-matched coalition into the presidential seat. In case the Turkish opposition wins – and their payment to the Hegemon begins – sanctions and violations of Montreux may be on the cards again.

Yet Washington may be in for a surprise. Turkish opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has implied there will be a more or less continued balanced posturing of Ankara’s foreign policy tilt, while some observers believe that even if Erdogan is ousted, there will be limits to Turkiye’s pivot back to the west.

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The quality of US diplomacy in the Team Biden Administration.

Exclusive: Biden administration hunts for high-value Russians for potential prisoner swap CNN May 11, 2023

The Biden administration is scouring the globe for offers that could entice Russia to release two wrongfully detained Americans, Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
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S officials’ outreach extends to some countries that have recently arrested alleged Russian spies, including Brazil, Norway and Germany, as well as a former Soviet bloc country, to discuss the possibility of including them in any potential prisoner swaps. Germany has in its custody a former colonel from Russia’s domestic spy agency named Vadim Krasikov, who is widely seen as being atop Russia’s list of prisoners it wants back. ...
While the US has multiple Russian cyber criminals in custody, Russia will not entertain them as part of a deal for Americans charged with espionage, according to current and former US officials involved in past proposals put on the table with Russia.

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This one was highlighted in Monday's The Evening Blues
Zelenskyy vows to defeat Putin/ JFK assassination update - Ray McGovern (22:58 min) May 8, 2023

DOJ & Ukraine - Where's the Truth? Larry Johnson fmr CIA (22.33 min) May 12, 2023

The the other livestream videos this week by Judge Napolitano channel ongoing discussions regarding current Ukraine/Russia conflict and drone strike on the Kremlin from different perspectives.

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Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ)are one of the methods to keep tensions high the area around China.

Clearing the air on East Asia’s ADIZs Asia Times May 11, 2023
Grumbles about ADIZ violations often carp of China’s rising assertiveness but the combustible issue is much more complex

China’s November 2013 declaration of an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea was rebuked by the United States and its Northeast Asian allies.

It was viewed as a counter-hegemonic geopolitical move for control over contested islands and as the first of multiple declarations designed to expand Beijing’s regional influence and reinforce dubious maritime sovereignty claims — particularly over the South China Sea.
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Viewing East Asian ADIZs through the narrow “rise of China” lens provides only partial understanding. Making full sense of the issue requires a broader regional focus that acknowledges the ambiguity of these zones, and the complex interactions between actors involved in establishing, enforcing, challenging or complying with them.

Despite dangers of escalation and miscalculation, there is currently no formal agreement on how ADIZs operate in the region.
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The initial ADIZs were set up around South Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the 1950s.
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But consensus over these zones has broken down after the Cold War. East Asian states have expanded — or set up — their zones to reinforce their claims while opposing any suggestion that rivals be permitted to do the same. For example, in 2010 Japan expanded its zone to slightly overlap with the Taiwanese ADIZ, a move opposed by Taipei.
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Redirecting the use of ADIZs back to defensive purposes, such as nuclear security and counterterrorism, is unlikely as long as policymakers believe that they are effective for asserting sovereignty over the sea or land below.

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What is on your mind today?

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Comments

soryang's picture

ADIZ have no standing in international law.

The initial ADIZs were set up around South Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the 1950s. These reflect the United States and allied nations’ fears of Moscow and Beijing’s new air capabilities. But these original zones neither overlapped nor corresponded with competing maritime territorial claims. Their defensive, technical orientation meant that they were accepted by littoral states as a legitimate response to changing technologies.

ADIZ are claimed unilaterally as a practical matter. The ADIZ claimed by South Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the 50s were in effect established by the US as the dominant military power in these states at the time. There is some overlap with disputed territorial claims. How could the Taiwan ADIZ claim extend well inland over the Chinese mainland? It was a ridiculous claim from the outset and was never accepted by the mainland Chinese government. The Japanese, Chinese, and South Korean ADIZs are all overextended more or less if they are viewed as some kind of meaningful international structure which they are not. They can only be enforced unilaterally. Other than the Taiwan ADIZ, it is the Japanese ADIZ which is the most expansive. Military presence and control are the means by which the existence of ADIZs are maintained. Where they are not enforced or complied with, they don't exist as a practical matter.

The proposal for a Code of Conduct seems promising on its face, but the prospect is illusory. Japan and the US are virtually impossible to negotiate with. They are not part of the Code of Conduct process for a reason. They prefer to use UNCLOS rather than the ASEAN code of conduct. Primary among their policies is the principle of freedom of navigation in international airspace and waters. Implicit in the flight of aircraft in international airspace, is the threat of military confrontation if that principle is interfered with. The fact that with the exception of the Japanese, virtually all the players civilian aircraft comply with the identification practice in ADIZ is just common sense avoidance of threats to flight safety (unnecessary interception by foreign military aircraft). Military aircraft, particularly those of China, the US, and Japan are going to fly right up to the 12nm international territorial limit of other states, because this is the controlling international law on sovereign territory, which includes sovereign airspace. In this respect, the territorial bases for the 12nm territorial limit, which applies to airspace as well the sovereign maritime limit, is complicated by the disputed territorial claims over many islands.

For example, Taiwan is a part of China. The Senkaku Islands are claimed by China, Taiwan and Japan. Dokdo is disputed by Korea and Japan. The Kuriles are disputed by Japan and Russia. Possession of various islands and reefs in the South China Sea are disputed by ASEAN nations riparian to that sea. Woody Island in the Paracel Islands is controlled by mainland China, but also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. Itu Abu/Taiping Island in the Spratly Islands is controlled by Taiwan but claimed by mainland China as well. The US won't recognize a 12nm limit around Chinese "artificial islands" in the South China Sea. The latter is a matter that could easily be solved with negotiation but won't be, because it serves as a wedge issue for the US to insert itself militarily into competing Chinese-ASEAN territorial and maritime claims.

Just what is the purpose of the photograph of the US-ROK combined military air exercise over South Korea?

Thanks for the interesting OT Studentofearth.

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語必忠信 行必正直

about the extremes to which the medical authoritarians are prepared to take things:

Western Australia also happens to be a compelling case showing vaccine harm - as it managed to isolate itself from the world and successfully kept out Covid for close to two years. And started its vaccination program before Covid even got there. The results were not pretty and summarized in a couple of Substacks: ExcessDeathsAU and Dystopian Down Under

Need some of that Eureka Stockade spirit...

Eureka Stockade.png

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snoopydawg's picture

@Blue Republic

I doubt a quarter of Americans know that Biden is getting ready to give our national sovereignty away to a group of sociopathic billionaires that will decide our medical needs going forward. I might even vote for Trump if he says that he will withdraw us from the WHO…fwiw. A few republicans are making noise about it, but they won’t be able to stop it even if they want to. Every one of them should be screaming at the top of their lungs to warn people about it. Instead I’m seeing a few tweets about how bad it is…whoopie. Talk is cheap.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

ggersh's picture

but he is somewhat compelling in that he believes the CIA is guilty.

Maybe it's just to me he has can think on his own two feet and
isn't an obnoxious human. Two low bars, but that's something
these days

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2023/05/debt-rattle-may-13-2023/

And there is this

EDIT: added this

in case elections matter

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I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

@ggersh
but Rasmussen supposedly has a +5 Republican slant (which we can assume is an anti Biden slant here)

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On to Biden since 1973

ggersh's picture

@doh1304 showing most americans don't want Biden to run?
A majority of D's also were in that majority.

But and it's a big but do election matter? And are they
not fixed?

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I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

@ggersh

and the money siphon system that support them.
For us, not so much. Mostly, already pre-decided.

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snoopydawg's picture

@ggersh

“If we want we can go into smoke filled back rooms and choose which candidate we want.”

I think that’s very clear that who the people vote for is not important to them. How many times did we see Bernie win a state only for the delegates to go to Hillary? Then there was Obama’s clearing the field for Biden even though Bernie was higher in the polls.

Chicago 1968…..

Democrats have said that in addition to no debates they will not have a primary either. But just for fun Kennedy should pick Tulsi for VP and run independent. Smile

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ggersh's picture

@snoopydawg

Democrats have said that in addition to no debates they will not have a primary either. But just for fun Kennedy should pick Tulsi for VP and run independent. Smile

RFK and Tulsi would win in a heartbeat imho

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7 users have voted.

I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

snoopydawg's picture

@ggersh

Twas Pelosi who said that on some yada yada show she was yada-ing on the other day. If I see the tweet again I’ll post it. But don’t forget that democrats are running on saving democracy from Trump. Funny way to show it.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@ggersh
though if you ask me that 30% is emblematic of the American decline.

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On to Biden since 1973

Lookout's picture

The election in Turkey will be telling.

Additionally, the US is meddling in Georgia too.

Thanks for the OT! I'm off to a fish fry at noon.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout

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enhydra lutris's picture

So, the first Formula one Championship and the First Giro d'Italia (Bicycle race) happened on May 13. I have a record on which the band leader breaks in and says "shoot low, they're riding Shetlands" and he, Bob Wills, died on May 13.

So be well and have a good one,

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/ukraines-zelenskiy-visit-germany-sunday-140612...

BERLIN (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will be received in Berlin on Sunday, German government sources told Reuters on Saturday, as the leader seeks to shore up support from key allies against Russia's invasion.

Zelenskiy will arrive from Italy where he was meeting with Italian officials and Pope Francis on Saturday.

The Ukrainian leader last visited Germany for the Munich Security Council in February last year just before the war broke out.

Germany, which is Europe's largest economy, faced criticism at the start of the war for what some called a hesitant response, but it has become one of Ukraine's biggest providers of financial and military assistance, ahead of other European powers like France.

Germany on Saturday announced 2.7 billion euro ($3.0 billion) of military aid to Ukraine, its biggest such package yet since the Russian invasion, and pledged further support for Kyiv for as long as necessary.

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@humphrey

The Russians found the 1/2 ton of coke that was mean to get him thru the offensive.
Bad day for Hunter too. The 3 tons of coke destined for his crime syndicate got
ex-appropriated by the Columbian Navy. Oops, now how are they going to pay-off
the CIA? Hell to pay.

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snoopydawg's picture

@humphrey

and his Nazis? If not then it’s true now that they don’t have a problem with them because I’m very sure that Francis gets truthful information about what’s happening in the world and he knows damn well that NATO has been supporting Nazis since it formed. Especially in Ukraine. But of course the pope is infallible…poo.

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@snoopydawg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitler%27s_Pope

Hitler's Pope is a book published in 1999 by the British journalist and author John Cornwell that examines the actions of Eugenio Pacelli, who became Pope Pius XII, before and during the Nazi era, and explores the charge that he assisted in the legitimization of Adolf Hitler's Nazi regime in Germany, through the pursuit of a Reichskonkordat in 1933. The book is critical of Pius' conduct during the Second World War, arguing that he did not do enough, or speak out enough, against the Holocaust. Cornwell argues that Pius's entire career as the nuncio to Germany, Cardinal Secretary of State, and Pope, was characterized by a desire to increase and centralize the power of the Papacy, and that he subordinated opposition to the Nazis to that goal. He further argues that Pius was antisemitic and that this stance prevented him from caring about the European Jews.

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snoopydawg's picture

@humphrey

It took me far too long to take the blinders off what I was taught about the Catholic Church. I finally all the way did after reading about Martin Luther, but it started after hearing about what the pope said about condoms during the AIDS epidemic. Guess that’s why they get kids involved in religion so young so they can brainwash them. My poor little butt spent lots of time sitting on the top of the pew in front of us. Mom should have left me sitting on the pew seat instead, but us kids always fought when she did.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@snoopydawg

the Ustaše (Croatia),and Italy's Fascists. Also established ratlines to S. America to help them escape when the war ended.

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

snoopydawg's picture

@humphrey

He told him that only Ukraine can negotiate peace. And the usually high Z appeared in the Vatican in his usual T-shirt and looks like Levi’s. Gotta continue the I’m just moments away from appearing at the front and it would take too long to change out of my suit and tie. The little coke head actor is going to milk this for as long as he can or until he himself gets regime changed.

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https://www.rt.com/news/576232-biden-cognitive-test-letter-resign/

US President Joe Biden must pass a cognitive exam or abandon the 2024 presidential race, 61 Republican members of the House of Representatives demanded on Thursday in an open letter to the commander-in-chief.

“The United States’ national security relies on a cognitively sound Commander in Chief, and it is evident that you do not fit that bill,” the letter stated, citing the concerns of the American public – 57% of voters don’t think Biden is “mentally fit” to lead the country, according to one recent poll – and the president’s own refusal to address those concerns in the first three years of his term.

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snoopydawg's picture

@humphrey

cognitive decline and wondered if he was actually competent to be president. But boy did they hush that up PDQ after Obama decided that he would be the candidate. It’s just like how the corporate media stopped talking about the Ukraine Nazis after Russia started its SMO and defended the people in the Donbas. I’ve been reminding people on the Twit about that and even brought the receipts.

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TheOtherMaven's picture

@humphrey

or, more accurately, his puppet-masters will. They won't give up on their meat puppet until he's full of blowflies and visibly rotting.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.