War with Iran just started

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I'm going to update this essay later. This should get things rolling for now.

To convey a sense of Soleimani’s significance, it would be as if, during the Iraq war, the ayatollah had ordered the assassination of Gen. David Petraeus, Gen. Jim Mattis, the head of Special Operations Command, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.* Soleimani’s responsibilities corresponded with all four of these roles. Even then, the analogy falls short because, among Shi’ite Muslims across the region, Soleimani also exuded the charisma of a religious icon, a holy warrior.

For the past 20 years, he had been the architect of Iran’s expansionist foreign policy, running subversive operations and controlling Shi’ite militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Afghanistan. In the months after the Sept. 11 attacks, he shared intelligence about al-Qaida and the Taliban with U.S. officials, until President George W. Bush declared Iran to be part of the “axis of evil.” In the fight against ISIS, his militias were crucial in forcing the group’s fighters out of Iraq. But he was also responsible for the deaths of hundreds of U.S. troops during the Iraq insurgency. On Thursday night, the Pentagon justified its action by claiming that he was about to launch an offensive against American embassies and armed forces throughout the region.

Even if that is true, killing him doesn’t make much strategic sense. As important as he was, his loyal and capable lieutenants are still capable of executing the missions.

Let's not overlook the guy who was killed alongside him.

He was credited with being a key leader in the Shia militias, the Popular Mobilisation Forces, known as the Hashed (al-Shaabi), employed as shock troops in the bloody fight against Islamic State in Iraq. Although he worked under Faleh al-Fayyadh, Iraq’s national security adviser, Muhandis was widely recognised as the Hashed’s real leader.

And equally, if not more, important was his involvement in founding and leading the Kata’ib Hezbollah militia, part of the Hashed.

This changes everything!

Any hope of salvaging the situation in Iraq is sunk. I don't see how the Iraqi government will not demand that we leave.
This will make our occupation in Syria increasingly untenable.

I don't see how Iran cannot strike back at us, probably both directly and with proxies. This will cause Trump to lash out disproportionately again, and escalate the situation.

Outside of Israel and the Saudis, I don't see us having any allies in this fight.

Domestically this changes the political conversation. Any talk of Trump not being keen on war will now end. Republicans will go back to calling Democrats Blame-America-First-Traitors.

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mimi's picture

@edg
came from the Trump Presidency. It is irrelevant to me today, if Bush and Obama have facilitated or enabled such unlimited use of power. It doesn't help to point that out in hindsight. Trump had the choice and he has chosen to order the assassination.

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@edg disagree as a general matter on the latest assassin attempt and following orders. That one is in the legal gray area, as re US law -- some say it's legal, others not. No soldier should reasonably want to risk court martial for failing to follow orders in the gray zone of legality. And as a general matter, no soldier can be expected to possess a lawyer's knowledge about any question of legality of an order -- it's just the reasonable person standard.

I was all along arguing for the soldier's right, even duty, to not follow clearly illegal orders. Clearly. Illegal. And I'm not sure how your "ability and obligation" phrase differs much from a soldier's right. Distinction without a difference for me.

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mimi's picture

@edg
I am a bit sceptical of what you assume, because of for example this:
Constitution Check: Could the military disobey orders issued by a President Trump?

comments from retired Air Force General Michael Hayden about possible conflict between the military and a civilian President over controversial orders - a debate triggered by recent comments from GOP candidate Donald Trump.
Michael_V._Hayden536
Retired Air Force General Michael Hayden:

THE STATEMENTS AT ISSUE:

“I would be incredibly concerned if a President Trump governed in a way that was consistent with the language that candidate Trump expressed during the campaign….Let me give you a punchline: If he were to order that [the killing of family members of terrorists] once in government, the American armed forces would refuse to act. You are not required to follow an unlawful order. That would be in violation of all the international laws of armed conflict.”

... If Trump were to win the office, and if he were, in fact, to move forward with some of his ideas for waging the war on terrorism, including a return to torture of terrorist suspects and even more brutal strategies for demoralizing them by killing their families, it is reasonable to expect that he would encounter stiff resistance from within his in-house military advisers, without a rebellion by them. But would military commanders actually refuse to obey direct orders from Trump as their ultimate commander?

One can surmise that, even if Trump were to undertake such commands to his military subordinates, there would be many points of resistance within the government to going forward, well before military commanders might resort to open defiance. And one can imagine that a good measure of resistance would come from at least some congressional leaders.

But, assuming the worst-case scenario, is such insubordination out of the question?

Retired General Michael Hayden last week suggested that very possibility, relying on an argument that such resistance would have international law on its side. Perhaps the former leader of the National Security Agency and of the Central Intelligence Agency was trying to reassure himself that the modern development of international war crimes commissions for the punishment of outright violations of the law of nations is now making legitimate the acts of disobedience to orders to commit atrocities.

I also remember a press stake out with General Petraeus and Rumsfeld in which Petraeus explained to Rumssfeld that a soldier does not have to obey an unlawful order (an order to commit a crime like torturing a prisoner of wark for example) and has the duty to bring any criminal conduct of soldiers to the attention to the superior commanders and up the command chain. So if the unlawful order comes directly from the Commander in Chief, where should the military commnders under the Commander in Chier turn to?

Unfortunately I can't find the video anymore, although I have posted it once a long time ago, but lost in either on Flickr or in my old computer.

So, you say the order by the US president to assassinate of a foreign military commander in a foreign country is NOT an unlawful order?

I have a hard time to believe that and if it might be so, I give up.

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edg's picture

@mimi

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edg's picture

@mimi

"If he were to order that [the killing of family members of terrorists] once in government, the American armed forces would refuse to act."

But the American armed forces didn't refuse to act when Reagan ordered an attack on Qaddafi's tent in Libya even though it was known his family was there and even though the assassination of foreign leaders is prohibited by international treaty.

Also, the American armed forces didn't refuse to act when Obama ordered an attack on Anwar al-Awlaki, an American citizen, or on al-Awlaki's 16 year old son and his cousins two weeks later.

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mimi's picture

@edg
was supposed to make my point and opinion clearer. Meanwhile much better articles could be quoted. May be this one? Trump’s Illegal, Impeachable Act of War

It also seems you stand with one leg on one side and with the other leg on the other side of the issue about the legality of Trump's assassination order.

Beats me and I think I don't have anything to comment anymore in that regard.

Nothing for Ungood.

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edg's picture

@mimi

As for one leg here, one there, you're confusing my statements of fact with my personal opinion. The fact is that under current US conditions, the assassination of Soleimani by Trump and the assassination of al-Alwaki by Obama were considered legal. My opinion is that they were both illegal.

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mimi's picture

@edg
your words. Happens too often to me. Quite often I can't figure out what is meant by some posters here on C99p. My apologies.

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edg's picture

@mimi

I could have been clearer in my writing.

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snoopydawg's picture

(?) Also he helped our forces in Afhanistan against the Taliban. Until George decided to name Iran one of the axis of evil. People were pissed:

After the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the US used the Northern Alliance to establish a foothold in Afghanistan and eventually drive the Taliban from power. Soleimani played a major role behind the scenes helping make the US-Northern Alliance partnership viable, including providing operational and intelligence support.

The US-Iranian cooperation was short-lived; President Bush’s designation of Iran as being part of “an Axis of Evil” caused Iran to terminate its cooperation with the Americans.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

Voting is like driving with a toy steering wheel.

ggersh's picture

of Nutenyahoo/Adelson etc.etc.etc. and company

Being Jewish myself I can now see how people around the world perceive Jews to be the cause
of all their problems, the dots are sadly connected.

How is this

even happening. Not one diplomat, or military advisor is speaking up stopping this … how does anyone think any of this as acceptable?

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I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

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