'Unprecedented': Scientists Declare Global Climate Emergency After Jet Stream Crosses Equator

It's something that "would not happen in a normal world."

From Robert Scribbler:

“It’s the very picture of weather weirding due to climate change. Something that would absolutely not happen in a normal world,” he wrote. “Something, that if it continues, basically threatens seasonal integrity.”

“Like many extreme events resulting from human-forced climate change — this co-mingling of upper level airs from one Hemisphere with another is pretty fracking strange,” Scribbler explained. “Historically, the Tropics — which produce the tallest and thickest air mass in the world — have served as a mostly impenetrable barrier to upper level winds moving from one Hemisphere to another. But as the Poles have warmed due to human-forced climate change, the Hemispherical Jet Streams have moved out of the Middle Latitudes more and more. ”

“That’s bad news for seasonality,” he continued. “You get this weather-destabilizing and extreme weather generating mixing of seasons that is all part of a very difficult to deal with ‘Death of Winter’ type scenario.”

University of Ottawa climate scientist Paul Beckwith called the new behavior “unprecedented.” “Our climate system behaviour continues to behave in new and scary ways that we have never anticipated, or seen before,” Beckwith observed. “Welcome to climate chaos. We must declare a global climate emergency.”

In video below, Beckwith says that the jet stream behavior signaled “massive hits to the food supply” and “massive geopolitical unrest.”

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skod's picture

Have to see what Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground thinks about this situation...

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tapu dali's picture

I know you hate TOP, but FishOutofWater there has an excellent post debunking this nonsense.
I repeat, nonsense.
If you choose to believe a non-scientist's dramaturgy over a professional meteorologist, ...

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

Granma's picture

I had a look. I'm glad you commented.

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jimpost's picture

University of Ottawa climate scientist Paul Beckwith

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The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.

tapu dali's picture

Paul Beckwith is a part time professor at the University of Ottawa and a post graduate studying and researching abrupt climate change, with a focus on the arctic.

And this isn't all at impressive.

Perpetual grad student. will he ever write a dissertation? Part-time "professor" can include a lot of stuff, including being a TA.

No refereed papers, a few conference reports and evidence (opinions) to committees is not very confidence-building.

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

jimpost's picture

than anything you have yet come up with, minus your scoffing, which is impressively condescending.

And even a POST (you "missed" that) grad student who specializes in abrupt climate change is more impressive than a meteorologist. One of my best friends graduated with a degree in meteorology and admits that, except for predicting broad strokes of weather and then watching the hell out of it to report changes, the field is a bit of a joke.

Not having published anything yet does not make Beckwith any less knowledgeable, in a field that specifically studies what he is talking about here.

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The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.

paradigmshift's picture

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"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

Steven D's picture

in real life that no one else is watching because the critics panned it's pace as too slow and the plot too boring?

Look over there -> TRUMP!

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

Alphalop's picture

Now if only Clinton came with a mute feature...

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"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me

Lookout's picture

but didn't know the streams crossed over the equator. What will it take to "leave it in the ground"?

Adds to my disgust at the platform climate lip service and lack of action.

Democratic Party Platform: Lots of Hot Air on Climate Change Published on Jun 30, 2016 (17.5 min)
Janet Redman, who provided testimony at the DNC Platform Committee, and Wenonah Hauter, the executive director of Food & Water Watch, address the draft’s shortcomings on the carbon tax, TPP, fracking, and fossil fuel extraction

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvBtihR4uNo]

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

WoodsDweller's picture

I read Scribbler every day and subscribe to Paul's channel, and highly recommend both. I'm glad I don't take classes from Paul, he has a terrible dead pan monotone delivery that would put me to sleep. Ironically, Paul is also a little excitable in his subject matter, but still worth following.
Broadly speaking, this is another example of "we've never seen this before" (to be fair, the jet streams weren't discovered until we started flying jets in them, so we don't have a long history to look back on) and "we had no idea this could happen so fast". What I was intrigued by was the fact that this developed overnight in a half-dozen points around the equator. It isn't a localized phenomena. We'll have to see how long it persists, and how often it crops up going forward.
Agriculture was possible (note the past tense) in the unusually calm and reliable climate of the Holocene. That's over now.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

tapu dali's picture

Scribbler is very often wrong.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/06/30/1543998/--Jet-Stream-Crosses-Eq...

This story is nonsense. The blogger robertscribbler is neither a meteorologist nor climatologist, nor is Paul Beckwith. I believe that robertscribbler’s expertise is in emergency management. He has excellent story telling skills and has built a large audience but he lacks scientific training.

It is embarrassing when “our side” is thoroughly debunked by Anthony Watts.

If robertscribbler and Paul Beckwith had paid attention to high level wind flow patterns near the extraordinary number of tropical storms in the Pacific in 2015 they would have seen many examples of high level winds crossing the equator. I am writing this post to show that “our side” has the integrity to correct our mistakes and admit our errors. I am also writing this as a warning to readers of Dailykos or c99p, for that matter (ed.) to make sure that your sources have expertise and demonstrated credibility in the subjects they cover. Even experts can make mistakes but this is what happens when non-scientists try to write about complex problems that they don’t understand.

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

Blasphemy101's picture

Well, we were warned about ignoring this issue. What I get from this, Global Climate Change just became irreversible. Once we are having Northern and Southern Jet Streams and Ocean Currents mixing, what can be done? Seeing how this effects the climate and localized weather in areas all over the world, will be interesting, and in some cases devastating.

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War, War Never Changes - Fallout Series

martianexpatriate's picture

The changes are irreversible. Consider this.

We are currently undergoing the sixth extinction, a time when a massive number of species all around the world are dying. Many are dying from pollution, some are dying from climate change, and many are dying from both.

Now every time a species dies, this effects every species which is related to it in some way. If its a predator that had prey, the prey will react in strange ways. If it was prey, it's predator will be harmed and may in time become extinct itself. Those changes which happen because of climate change won't kill off the species immediately. It will usually take many years.

So as one species dies, there is a cascade effect that you don't see for decades. All the cascades that are going on right now are potentially enough to eliminate us.

Even if we cut back on our co2 massively and took incredibly measures to cut back on the damage we are doing now, all those cascades continue happening anyway for decades.

What we are doing is madness. Not only am I unsatisfied with Hillary Clinton's position, I'm unsatisfied with Bernie Sanders position. There is no political candidate in existence who is willing to stand up for the measures that I would like to take right now.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Alphalop's picture

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"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me

jimpost's picture

liviiinnng eaaaaaasssssy.

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The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.

new minas's picture

an event like this happened in 2014 that was twice as strong and then went away right away. Be careful about Robert Scribbler, most of his stuff is very good but sometimes it is not reputable.

March 18th 2014
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/18/1800Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orth...

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If you do not understand that being part of the "establishment" is a slur in the minds of 99% of the U.S. population then you are completely out of touch and probably are one.

CaptainPoptart's picture

twice becomes the beginning of a set of data points. Something to be very concerned about.

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I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings

tapu dali's picture

"It is often not reputable', as he is not a professional.

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

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There is no such thing as TMI. It can always be held in reserve for extortion.

tapu dali's picture

"Utter rubbish".

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

PriceRip's picture

          Is it too late to ask the writer to include this link in the article?

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tapu dali's picture

when there's an imaginary "unprecedented emergency" to go into panic mode about ....

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

PriceRip's picture

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tapu dali's picture

Btw, you said you were a physicist, I believe?

I was an odd hybrid of both experimental and theoretical.

I had great ideas for experiments but I couldn't fix a vacuum pump to save my life, but I was pretty good at tweaking the beam quadrupole focussing knobs !

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

PriceRip's picture

          A student two years ahead of me could destroy your experiment by just walking into the lab. The universal explanation for failure became known as the result of the Rimby Effect.
          Me, I have "the touch" and for many years I was credited with feats accomplished well after my departure. Such is the way of urban (or other) legends.

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Alex Ocana's picture

I have been a long term user of Nullschool, and tune in every day during hurricane season. I also cross-reference it to actual weather records each day and also when I see an interpretation that looks wrong to me. So, let me just say... be very careful when interpreting it. There are plenty of artifacts in the algorithms that generate it.

I have also been banned from the "doomer" groups on FB... because IMO they many of them don't have a clue about some basic ecological facts about habitats that I know very well. Things like plant secession over tundra is important to know. And, often they have blinders on to alternative or disagreeable explanations for some phenomena or purposely ignore some data.

The "doomers" pull out the popcorn because they know that humanity will be extinct before 2125 and there isn't anything to do but cry in their popcorn and refuse to have babies.

That being said, the raw data is more than disturbing on all fronts and decisions such as 1500 fracking wells authorized by Obama/Clinton should be considered climate crimes and the perpetrators banished to some low lying island in the Indian Ocean and locked in cages. The democrats are worse than the deniers because they know what is happening quite clearly, pretend to care, put the public asleep with their platitudes, and march on lockstep destroying the planet for profit.

Also, what Beckworth says at the end about climate refugees and food shortages is IMO a present reality, particularly exacerbated by predatory capitalism and perpetual war. While it may be too late, I still think that there are admittedly radical changes that could perhaps stabilize the climate at a survivable state.

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From the Light House.

edg's picture

Bwaa-haaa-haaa.

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jimpost's picture

Stop it. Just stop it. Behave, now.

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The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.

Bisbonian's picture

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

a demand of "Delete your Twitter account"

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Fighting for democratic principles,... well, since forever

tapu dali's picture

As I indicated above, the idea that the Jet stream "crossing the equator" is "unprecedented and disastrous" is utter rubbish.

Please go the OtherPlace and read Fish oo Water's rec listed diary. please!!! For your own credibility.

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

tapu dali's picture

PLEASE, C99P, DON'T JUMP THE SHARK!

If robertscribbler and Paul Beckwith had paid attention to high level wind flow patterns near the extraordinary number of tropical storms in the Pacific in 2015 they would have seen many examples of high level winds crossing the equator. I am writing this post to show that “our side” has the integrity to correct our mistakes and admit our errors. I am also writing this as a warning to readers of Dailykos ed: and c99p as well to make sure that your sources have expertise and demonstrated credibility in the subjects they cover. Even experts can make mistakes but this is what happens when non-scientists try to write about complex problems that they don’t understand.

FishOutofWater @ "TOP".

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

tapu dali's picture

has been uprated as have the comments supporting the claims made therein does not bode well for the credibility of this Place.

What ever happened to a "reality-based" community?

This is not reality, it's nonsense and rubbish.

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

WoodsDweller's picture

The credibility of my anonymous Internet handle that a 12-year old could crack in 10 minutes will be forever diminished due to reading an essay by someone who IS NOT A SANCTIONED AUTHORITY.

Pass the smelling salts.

I'm far more concerned with not missing interesting information than with suffering a little hyperbole.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

mhagle's picture

is a good guy and a reliable source. He is on the same track as James Hansen, Jason Box, Prof. Peter Wadhams, and Kevin Anderson. He says the same things they say.

Why do we have a climate change denier posting on c99? That is odd.

Paul's videos are neither speculative or conspiracies. He takes data and explains it.

I have personally experienced too much extreme bad climate shit in the past few years to blow it off. The weird ass jet stream and the super el nino' brought us in 2015 over twice the average annual rainfall dating back 150 years. In 2012 hundreds of trees died because a borer beetle could now survive further north (confirmed by the forestry service scientists).

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

tapu dali's picture

Kindly give me a indication that Paul Beckwith has credibility through refereed scientific papers in reputable scientific journals.

Contributions to conferences don't count for much, unless they're backed up by a refereed publication.

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

mhagle's picture

voice on an issue. He is a scientist making observations and analyzing data. All of his videos that I have watched are completely consistent with the other scientists I mentioned who focus on the Arctic. He is in Canada, so naturally the conditions of the Arctic and the jet stream are a great concern to him.

I have not been published and peer reviewed, but I saw it rain 80 inches last year at my home, when the average annual rainfall for the the previous 150 years was 34.5 inches. We broke the daily rainfall record that was set in the mid 1800s three times in 2015.

I don't understand your motivations in trying to discredit Paul Beckwith. What purpose does it serve? How will it aid in our understanding of the climate crisis and in our efforts to mediate it?

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Marilyn

"Make dirt, not war." eyo

jimpost's picture

is just trying to save us from ourselves. He is helpfully screening data for us and giving us his UNPROFFESSIONAL opinion of it. He saves us the trouble of doing this for ourselves and thereby straining our poor little brains. And he does this based on the opinion of someone who is paid to be wrong much of the time.

Methinks he doth protest too much.

Just my *unprofessional* opinion.

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The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.

other hell hole is hardly a way to prove credibility.

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Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur

tapu dali's picture

but this individual is one the most respected writers of science, meteorology, etc. on that so-called "hell hole". Not everything written there is madness. I will take his opinion over anyone's referenced here gladly.

As for me, I invite you to check out my home page here at c99p.

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.