'Unprecedented': Scientists Declare Global Climate Emergency After Jet Stream Crosses Equator
It's something that "would not happen in a normal world."
“It’s the very picture of weather weirding due to climate change. Something that would absolutely not happen in a normal world,” he wrote. “Something, that if it continues, basically threatens seasonal integrity.”
“Like many extreme events resulting from human-forced climate change — this co-mingling of upper level airs from one Hemisphere with another is pretty fracking strange,” Scribbler explained. “Historically, the Tropics — which produce the tallest and thickest air mass in the world — have served as a mostly impenetrable barrier to upper level winds moving from one Hemisphere to another. But as the Poles have warmed due to human-forced climate change, the Hemispherical Jet Streams have moved out of the Middle Latitudes more and more. ”
“That’s bad news for seasonality,” he continued. “You get this weather-destabilizing and extreme weather generating mixing of seasons that is all part of a very difficult to deal with ‘Death of Winter’ type scenario.”
University of Ottawa climate scientist Paul Beckwith called the new behavior “unprecedented.” “Our climate system behaviour continues to behave in new and scary ways that we have never anticipated, or seen before,” Beckwith observed. “Welcome to climate chaos. We must declare a global climate emergency.”
In video below, Beckwith says that the jet stream behavior signaled “massive hits to the food supply” and “massive geopolitical unrest.”
Comments
Now, that is downright interesting.
Have to see what Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground thinks about this situation...
This is unfortunately rubbish.
I know you hate TOP, but FishOutofWater there has an excellent post debunking this nonsense.
I repeat, nonsense.
If you choose to believe a non-scientist's dramaturgy over a professional meteorologist, ...
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Thanks
I had a look. I'm glad you commented.
Reaaaaallly.
The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.
Pffftt.
And this isn't all at impressive.
Perpetual grad student. will he ever write a dissertation? Part-time "professor" can include a lot of stuff, including being a TA.
No refereed papers, a few conference reports and evidence (opinions) to committees is not very confidence-building.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
It's a lot more impressive
than anything you have yet come up with, minus your scoffing, which is impressively condescending.
And even a POST (you "missed" that) grad student who specializes in abrupt climate change is more impressive than a meteorologist. One of my best friends graduated with a degree in meteorology and admits that, except for predicting broad strokes of weather and then watching the hell out of it to report changes, the field is a bit of a joke.
Not having published anything yet does not make Beckwith any less knowledgeable, in a field that specifically studies what he is talking about here.
The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.
Comment deleted.
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
You ever get the feeling that you're watching a horror movie
in real life that no one else is watching because the critics panned it's pace as too slow and the plot too boring?
Look over there -> TRUMP!
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Those movies are not as scary when you turn off the soundtrack.
Now if only Clinton came with a mute feature...
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
I knew about the wobble
but didn't know the streams crossed over the equator. What will it take to "leave it in the ground"?
Adds to my disgust at the platform climate lip service and lack of action.
Democratic Party Platform: Lots of Hot Air on Climate Change Published on Jun 30, 2016 (17.5 min)
Janet Redman, who provided testimony at the DNC Platform Committee, and Wenonah Hauter, the executive director of Food & Water Watch, address the draft’s shortcomings on the carbon tax, TPP, fracking, and fossil fuel extraction
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvBtihR4uNo]
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
Crossing the streams is bad...
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyKQe_i9yyo]
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
Glad to see this being picked up in broader media
I read Scribbler every day and subscribe to Paul's channel, and highly recommend both. I'm glad I don't take classes from Paul, he has a terrible dead pan monotone delivery that would put me to sleep. Ironically, Paul is also a little excitable in his subject matter, but still worth following.
Broadly speaking, this is another example of "we've never seen this before" (to be fair, the jet streams weren't discovered until we started flying jets in them, so we don't have a long history to look back on) and "we had no idea this could happen so fast". What I was intrigued by was the fact that this developed overnight in a half-dozen points around the equator. It isn't a localized phenomena. We'll have to see how long it persists, and how often it crops up going forward.
Agriculture was possible (note the past tense) in the unusually calm and reliable climate of the Holocene. That's over now.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Oh please!
Scribbler is very often wrong.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/06/30/1543998/--Jet-Stream-Crosses-Eq...
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Well, we were warned
Well, we were warned about ignoring this issue. What I get from this, Global Climate Change just became irreversible. Once we are having Northern and Southern Jet Streams and Ocean Currents mixing, what can be done? Seeing how this effects the climate and localized weather in areas all over the world, will be interesting, and in some cases devastating.
War, War Never Changes - Fallout Series
You are correct.
The changes are irreversible. Consider this.
We are currently undergoing the sixth extinction, a time when a massive number of species all around the world are dying. Many are dying from pollution, some are dying from climate change, and many are dying from both.
Now every time a species dies, this effects every species which is related to it in some way. If its a predator that had prey, the prey will react in strange ways. If it was prey, it's predator will be harmed and may in time become extinct itself. Those changes which happen because of climate change won't kill off the species immediately. It will usually take many years.
So as one species dies, there is a cascade effect that you don't see for decades. All the cascades that are going on right now are potentially enough to eliminate us.
Even if we cut back on our co2 massively and took incredibly measures to cut back on the damage we are doing now, all those cascades continue happening anyway for decades.
What we are doing is madness. Not only am I unsatisfied with Hillary Clinton's position, I'm unsatisfied with Bernie Sanders position. There is no political candidate in existence who is willing to stand up for the measures that I would like to take right now.
Summer is Coming.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
And Congress is full of terrors...
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
Who are all
liviiinnng eaaaaaasssssy.
The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.
an event like this happened
an event like this happened in 2014 that was twice as strong and then went away right away. Be careful about Robert Scribbler, most of his stuff is very good but sometimes it is not reputable.
March 18th 2014
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/18/1800Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orth...
If you do not understand that being part of the "establishment" is a slur in the minds of 99% of the U.S. population then you are completely out of touch and probably are one.
One occurrence is an anomaly
twice becomes the beginning of a set of data points. Something to be very concerned about.
I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings
Correct.
"It is often not reputable', as he is not a professional.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Did see this...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/30/c...
There is no such thing as TMI. It can always be held in reserve for extortion.
Precisely.
"Utter rubbish".
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Is it too late
Is it too late to ask the writer to include this link in the article?
This site clearly doesn't do science
when there's an imaginary "unprecedented emergency" to go into panic mode about ....
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
I had that problem with TOP, sigh.
I know.
Btw, you said you were a physicist, I believe?
I was an odd hybrid of both experimental and theoretical.
I had great ideas for experiments but I couldn't fix a vacuum pump to save my life, but I was pretty good at tweaking the beam quadrupole focussing knobs !
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Rimby Effect
A student two years ahead of me could destroy your experiment by just walking into the lab. The universal explanation for failure became known as the result of the Rimby Effect.
Me, I have "the touch" and for many years I was credited with feats accomplished well after my departure. Such is the way of urban (or other) legends.
I agree a climate state of emergency should be declared and...
I have been a long term user of Nullschool, and tune in every day during hurricane season. I also cross-reference it to actual weather records each day and also when I see an interpretation that looks wrong to me. So, let me just say... be very careful when interpreting it. There are plenty of artifacts in the algorithms that generate it.
I have also been banned from the "doomer" groups on FB... because IMO they many of them don't have a clue about some basic ecological facts about habitats that I know very well. Things like plant secession over tundra is important to know. And, often they have blinders on to alternative or disagreeable explanations for some phenomena or purposely ignore some data.
The "doomers" pull out the popcorn because they know that humanity will be extinct before 2125 and there isn't anything to do but cry in their popcorn and refuse to have babies.
That being said, the raw data is more than disturbing on all fronts and decisions such as 1500 fracking wells authorized by Obama/Clinton should be considered climate crimes and the perpetrators banished to some low lying island in the Indian Ocean and locked in cages. The democrats are worse than the deniers because they know what is happening quite clearly, pretend to care, put the public asleep with their platitudes, and march on lockstep destroying the planet for profit.
Also, what Beckworth says at the end about climate refugees and food shortages is IMO a present reality, particularly exacerbated by predatory capitalism and perpetual war. While it may be too late, I still think that there are admittedly radical changes that could perhaps stabilize the climate at a survivable state.
From the Light House.
I'm sure Hillary will jump right on this.
Bwaa-haaa-haaa.
Hey you, jet stream!
Stop it. Just stop it. Behave, now.
The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.
Cut it Out!
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
A strongly worded letter or
a demand of "Delete your Twitter account"
Fighting for democratic principles,... well, since forever
Oh ffs.
As I indicated above, the idea that the Jet stream "crossing the equator" is "unprecedented and disastrous" is utter rubbish.
Please go the OtherPlace and read Fish oo Water's rec listed diary. please!!! For your own credibility.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
C99P;
PLEASE, C99P, DON'T JUMP THE SHARK!
FishOutofWater @ "TOP".
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
I call your attention to the fact that this rubbish
has been uprated as have the comments supporting the claims made therein does not bode well for the credibility of this Place.
What ever happened to a "reality-based" community?
This is not reality, it's nonsense and rubbish.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Oh Noes!
The credibility of my anonymous Internet handle that a 12-year old could crack in 10 minutes will be forever diminished due to reading an essay by someone who IS NOT A SANCTIONED AUTHORITY.
Pass the smelling salts.
I'm far more concerned with not missing interesting information than with suffering a little hyperbole.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Paul Beckwith
is a good guy and a reliable source. He is on the same track as James Hansen, Jason Box, Prof. Peter Wadhams, and Kevin Anderson. He says the same things they say.
Why do we have a climate change denier posting on c99? That is odd.
Paul's videos are neither speculative or conspiracies. He takes data and explains it.
I have personally experienced too much extreme bad climate shit in the past few years to blow it off. The weird ass jet stream and the super el nino' brought us in 2015 over twice the average annual rainfall dating back 150 years. In 2012 hundreds of trees died because a borer beetle could now survive further north (confirmed by the forestry service scientists).
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
I'm glad you think so.
Kindly give me a indication that Paul Beckwith has credibility through refereed scientific papers in reputable scientific journals.
Contributions to conferences don't count for much, unless they're backed up by a refereed publication.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
I don't think you have to first be published to be a credible
voice on an issue. He is a scientist making observations and analyzing data. All of his videos that I have watched are completely consistent with the other scientists I mentioned who focus on the Arctic. He is in Canada, so naturally the conditions of the Arctic and the jet stream are a great concern to him.
I have not been published and peer reviewed, but I saw it rain 80 inches last year at my home, when the average annual rainfall for the the previous 150 years was 34.5 inches. We broke the daily rainfall record that was set in the mid 1800s three times in 2015.
I don't understand your motivations in trying to discredit Paul Beckwith. What purpose does it serve? How will it aid in our understanding of the climate crisis and in our efforts to mediate it?
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
tapu dali
is just trying to save us from ourselves. He is helpfully screening data for us and giving us his UNPROFFESSIONAL opinion of it. He saves us the trouble of doing this for ourselves and thereby straining our poor little brains. And he does this based on the opinion of someone who is paid to be wrong much of the time.
Methinks he doth protest too much.
Just my *unprofessional* opinion.
The more people I meet, the more I love my cats.
And I'm sorry, but referring us back to that
other hell hole is hardly a way to prove credibility.
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
You evidently do not know FOoW,
but this individual is one the most respected writers of science, meteorology, etc. on that so-called "hell hole". Not everything written there is madness. I will take his opinion over anyone's referenced here gladly.
As for me, I invite you to check out my home page here at c99p.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.