Tulsi at 7% in Latest NH Poll--Other Polling News

A LOT of interesting polling stuff going on right now.

Today, in a Patinkin Research Strategies poll of New Hampshire (600 people, 21% on cell phones), Tulsi came in at 7% in 5th place. According to this poll, 7% of those polled are still undecided.

All the states are literally up for grabs at this point. For example, in New Hampshire, Sanders is leading in one poll, Biden in one poll, and Buttigieg in one poll.

In Iowa, Sanders leads in one poll, and Sanders/Biden/Buttigieg are all tied for first place in another (at 23% each).

In South Carolina, Biden leads the only recent poll by far (36%)--but guess who is in second place? Steyer, with a 15% showing! (Sanders follows third at 14%.)

In Nevada, Biden (23%) is ahead of Sanders (17%) in the only recent poll, with Steyer and Warren tied for third place at 12%.

Warren seems to have disappeared from the top 3 choices in most states. Bloomberg seems to have gained little traction.

Remember, the goal is obtaining delegates, and anyone who polls under 15% in a state gets zero pledged delegates from that state. Going into Super Tuesday, it seems Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg will definitely have delegates, and Steyer may have some as well. Warren might not have any, which will put great pressure on her campaign.

Who will have the most delegates? Iowa has 41 pledged delegates, New Hampshire has 24, Nevada has 36, and South Carolina has 54. It may be Biden if he wins SC with large numbers, even if Sanders takes the majority in Iowa and NH.

But, come Super Tuesday, Sanders seems likely to win California (416 pledged delegates), Biden seems likely to win Texas (228 pledged delegates), and Warren is likely to win Massachusetts (91 pledged delegates)--the three most delegate-rich states for that day.

It's coming down to the wire now . . .

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Situational Lefty's picture

I think she's going to surprise a lot of people in the next month.

As an anit-war Iraq veteran who stood up to the DNC in the last election cycle, she has a lot of appeal to anti war voters from both parties.

Lord knows, President bone spurs could never stand up to her.

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The United States of America is the birthplace of Martin Luther King Jr., Harriet Tubman, Cesar Chavez and Emma Lazarus.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Situational Lefty

And I haven't watched a debate since 2012.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Situational Lefty … Also, keep in mind NH is an open primary state, which means Independents and Registered Rs are free to vote in the Dem Primary. Given there isn't much of a contest for the R nomination, expect to see that happen, which is good news for the non-establishment candidates in the Dem primary, notably Tulsi, Bernie and Yang, who have a broad appeal to Rs and Is as well as Dems.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

in a poll where only 22% of the respondents are under 50.

In other words, *I* would be one of the youngest respondents in that poll, at 51 years old.

smh

Back in the Paleolithic era, before the 2016 campaign season, it used to be only people under 30 who were underrepresented in such things. Now it's people under 50. God only knows what it will be as the election (?) season progresses. Whatever it takes to create the impression desired, I guess.
Now that Bernie's doing pretty well even with a poll that concentrates its attention on people over 50 who mainly use landlines, they'll probably have to eliminate everyone under 60.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
I am not saying they all do it. But the push-polls whose real intent is to shape opinion, not report it, likely start with a larger sample then report only the demographic groups that show the desired results.

'Biden polled extremely well among landline phone owners who believed that Bill Gates was calling because he detected a problem with their computer and who were willing to give the pollster a credit card number over the phone.'

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I don't want Trump to win, but I do want the establishment Dems to lose due to their cheating and undemocratic practices in the primary. And I will do whatever I can to help that happen.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@entrepreneur

Please tell me that's from the Onion.

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0 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

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2 users have voted.

I don't want Trump to win, but I do want the establishment Dems to lose due to their cheating and undemocratic practices in the primary. And I will do whatever I can to help that happen.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

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0 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Wally's picture

Nevada: Bernie 29%, Biden 28%, Warren 14% Steyer 8% Buttigieg 6%

Bernie will win SC, here's why...

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Wally

their heretofore passionate support of whichever candidate the DNC tells them to like.

Didn't work out so well for them last time.

Actually didn't work out so well for them the time before, either, but there's no use having that conversation.

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1 user has voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

WaterLily's picture

Not to worry. In that case, the DNC will call it a day early in favor of Biden.

Then they'll ship the uncounted ballots to San Francisco as firestarter for all the folks who can't afford to live in an actual house.

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the homeless.
@WaterLily

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5 users have voted.

I don't want Trump to win, but I do want the establishment Dems to lose due to their cheating and undemocratic practices in the primary. And I will do whatever I can to help that happen.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@WaterLily

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1 user has voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Situational Lefty's picture

but all anyone talks bout is Mayor Pete!'s service.

I think it's because he's got a bunch of big corporate donors backing his campaign and television ads pepper sprayed all over Iowa and New Hampshire. It's too bad money controls politics in the United States these days.

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2 users have voted.

The United States of America is the birthplace of Martin Luther King Jr., Harriet Tubman, Cesar Chavez and Emma Lazarus.

Wally's picture

@Situational Lefty

. . . keep contributing to Bernie's campaign, making him the front runner in campaign fundraising.

Sure, there's also PACs and all sorts of dark money. But Bernie's chances of winning in Iowa and NH look pretty, pretty good right now.

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@Wally

Although it's gratifying to see Sanders ahead of Biden/Warren/Buttigieg, unlike Gabbard,
I don't think Bernie really has the chops to take
on the Deep State - in contrast to Tulsi who *does*
(as did Jim Webb, who could have easily beaten Trump last time).

Where I, (and not a few million other people who might otherwise consider him) really part ways with Bernie is over gun policy. When it comes to guns, Bernie is way more NYC than Vermont - which for decades had the most libertarian gun laws of any state (and consistently ranked as one of the safest).

I don't agree with some stands that Tulsi has taken in the past on guns, but she is the only Dem candidate who seems to really regard the right to keep and bear arms as a fundamental freedom and not just a throwaway line.

I'm sure Bernie is the 2nd choice of a lot of Gabbard supporters. But where would Bernie supporters be if he had to drop out for health reasons and Gabbard wasn't there as an alternative?

Not a happy prospect.

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Wally's picture

@Blue Republic

Does Tulsi have the critical mass of support needed to win the nomination or even run third party?

I like Tulsi for the most part and she would be my second choice among Dem candidates if she had any chance of winning the nomination. But I just don't see her getting any delegates (maybe, just maybe some in Hawaii and Somoa).

In any event, I'm pretty sure most Tulsi supporters will support Bernie in caucus states after the initial polling. In primary states, her votes will just get distributed to other candidates who reach the 15% threshold proportionate to the number of votes they get. Those are the new rules, like 'em or not.

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@Wally

Tulsi's prospects are slim, but if she can pull out a 3rd place finish in NH she has a way forward IMHO.

Given Pete and Warren fading, and the possibility of Bernie having to quit (health reasons) and of Biden imploding (corruption, health, incoherence, mile-wide, inch-deep support) she has incentive to stay in.

Given news near-blackout and no recent debate exposure a lot of people don't know she's still running - but New Hampshire is her shot - that's where she's putting her energy and resources so we'll know in a month or so...

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Blue Republic

It's rational enough that he gets attacked from both sides regularly.

Harvey Weinstein (yes, that Weinstein) came up with the following way for Hillary to attack Bernie leading up to the NY Primary:

https://www.cnn.com/2016/04/05/politics/bernie-sanders-sandy-hook-guns/i...

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/bernie-sanders-mass-shooting-vict...

Basically, it was said that Bernie sided with gunmakers over slain elementary school children and their bereaved families. Bernie is, you see, basically OK with armed men busting into elementary schools and slaughtering everybody there.

What did Bernie do that was so wrong? What was the fuel to this media fire?

This.

"Do I think that that gun dealer should be sued for selling me a legal product that he misused?" Sanders asked rhetorically, shaking his head no. "But I do believe that gun manufacturers and gun dealers should be able to be sued when they should know that guns are going into the hands of wrong people. So if somebody walks in and says, "I'd like 10,000 rounds of ammunition," you know, well, you might be suspicious about that."

See, Sanders answered as a legislator. You can't sue someone for selling a product that it's legal to sell, just because they're selling it. That's the true answer, no matter which side of the gun control issue you are on. If you think they shouldn't sell guns, you need to criminalize guns. If guns are not criminalized, if it is legal to sell them, you can't legally punish someone for selling them.

That's pretty fucking simple. And it doesn't seem to necessarily suggest that we should all become cheerleaders for homicidal maniacs.

Bernie also had the gall to suggest that guns might mean different things to urban and rural people. Good heavens!

All this seemed to work pretty well in New York City, though it's difficult to tell from a distance because everything about the New York primary was so fucking corrupt. (That's not an attack on New Yorkers, most of whom were the victims of that assault rather than the reason for it.)

Anyway, if Bernie's gun control policy is so New York City, I don't know why the Weinstein/Clinton attack didn't just flop.

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1 user has voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

reasoning on the gun maker liability issue. And the orchestrated attacks look pretty much like SOP (slimy operating procedure) for the Clinton campaign. I'm in no position to assess whether they were in any way effective.

If you want to go slimy Hollywood producer expertise would kind of represent the gold standard, I imagine.

Was wondering about the assertion by Sanders (in the CNN article) that Clinton takes money from NRA lobbyists? I don't doubt she would if she thought it wouldn't dent her income from other sources but I can't imagine the NRA giving her any.

Time was, pro-right to self defense and to be left alone when your actions are not (illegitimately) harming anyone (aka "Pro-Gun") Democrats such as Jim Webb or Jared Golden were hardly the outliers they've become now.

Far as I can tell, most gun owners perceive Democratic calls for "gun safety" as hypocritical and dishonest and are not far wrong.

As illustrated pretty clearly here for Project Veritas (eve of Hillary's nomination 2016).

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Blue Republic

For instance, limitations on numbers of rounds. As a guy said at a rally I was at once, "If my son can't hit a deer in ten shots, he needs to work on his shooting."

In fact, I really don't believe that there's any reason for ordinary Americans to have access to military weapons at all. We can't have a successful revolution with them, because the elites have access to much more powerful weapons than the most powerful gun. If a guy in a basement in Northern Virginia can kill you with a drone when you're standing in, say, Nevada, it doesn't really matter how powerful your gun is. And that's just one of the ways in which the elites have much more advanced weapons technology than the little guys.

Unless you're trying to beat professional soldiers with high-tech guns, I'm not sure what the point is of owning a military weapon. I suppose you could be an aficionado of the history of weapons, and want to keep a collection. But guns assembled for those purposes don't need to be able to fire.

Anyway, we're in agreement on a lot of stuff, but I just wanted to make it clear that I'm more of a supporter of gun control than my comments may have indicated. I just don't like posturing, hypocrisy, and lies, and I don't particularly trust those who indulge in such things to legislate gun policy. And yes, many of these Democrats are hypocrites and liars--not just in the way that your video suggests, but also in the sense that I don't think most of them give a damn if us "little people" get killed. I mean, Hillary changes her gun policy pronouncements based, apparently, on the weather.

This is actually a good piece of work by John Stewart from 2008. It shows Hillary's incredible hypocrisy in relation to this issue:

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/ge4f8a/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-hea...

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0 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem