The Time Has Come

          The time has come,' the Walrus said,
                    To talk of many things:
          Of shoes — and ships — and sealing-wax —
                    Of cabbages — and kings —
          And why the sea is boiling hot —
                              And whether pigs have wings.'

          Yesterday my daughter described a series of events that occurred in her community in the "outback" of Nebraska. It is possible that the Covid-19 plague swept through her localized collection of towns and villages over a span of a few weeks. Her descriptions were compelling from my perspective. And as a specialist (of sorts) I feel comforted by her account.

          Last night I happened upon the 06 March 2020 WHO situation report. As I read it I realized that most people reading this report might very well reach a different consensus from that formed between my daughter and I. I say "most people" because I know all too well that most people do not understand statistics (at all; let alone) in the way my daughter and I understand statistics.

          I worry about groups of people doing very stupid things like sharing the Eucharist, or having a massive Prayer Meeting to Heal the Ill. Naw !, no one would do that, now would they?

          — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
          www.who.wnt Caution: Link opens in new window, as do its links to each Report.
          — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
          Each report has a second page bearing a different subject focus.
06 March 2020:
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Situation Report - 46
20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf
— — —
SUBJECT IN FOCUS: Q&A: Similarities and differences – COVID-19 and influenza
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
16 March 2020:
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Situation Report - 56
20200316-sitrep-56-covid-19.pdf
— — —
SUBJECT IN FOCUS: Partner Coordination
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

On The Other Hand:
          Abbott:
                    So, they're saying coronavirus is now officially a pandemic.
          Costello:
                    Who says?
          Abbott:
                    Yes.
          Costello:
                    Who did?
          Abbott:
                    Of course, that's their job.
          Costello:
                    Whose job?
          Abbott:
                    Exactly.
          Costello:
                    And what is the name of that organization?
          Abbott:
                    Not what … WHO.
          Costello:
                    That's what I'm trying to find out!

Edit: I lifted the Abbott and Costello from an anonymous gif image.

RIP

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the american version of the WHO...

WHOA

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5 users have voted.
Granma's picture

but don't understand. Can you explain what you think?

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4 users have voted.
PriceRip's picture

@Granma

          described the pattern of illness in the county courthouse complex, school system, and a smattering of other demographically defined (As a prosecuting attorney she is very well connected.) segments of her community.

          A critical piece of information in this "study" is that the retirement homes and care facilities remained isolated during this time.

          The death rate was low. The exposed population was primarily young to middle aged containing a reasonable fraction of Hispanics.

          The time span for this sequence of events is consistent with WHO estimates. To the degree that "casual" observations were reasonably discerned these also were consistent with WHO advisories.

          Feel free to ask questions. I can not guarantee that I will be able to answer but you never know …

          Disclamer: I put "study" in quotes because these comments are not grounded in a proper study, but are informed observations by experienced people (my daughter and myself) in a rather informal setting. Do not overstate the reliability of this as we do not have the extensive testing equipment and associated sample in hand.

RIP

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6 users have voted.
Granma's picture

@PriceRip Thank you. I'm going to think about it for a while. I get what you are saying. It is optimistic.

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2 users have voted.
Granma's picture

@PriceRip there is now a certain amount of herd immunity in this community. And if Covid was going around in that community, it likely has been going around in others too, and they may also have a certain amount of herd immunity. Is this what you are thinking or am I missing point?

As for nursing homes, most people don't go visit older relatives when they don't feel good. They don't want to pass along a cold or stomach upset to older relatives. That may be why it hasn't hit in those until recently.

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2 users have voted.
PriceRip's picture

@Granma

          We think this is influencing an important segment of the Nebraska Panhandle. A major concern is that I-80 skirts the southern edge of this environs and do not know how that might play a part in future developments.

          And, as I suggested, we might be wrong in our assessment of the situation as we do not have hard epistemological, epidemiological, or viral-genealogical data to substantiate these observations.

          So, be aware I am skating on thin ice at this time, even as I celebrate the possibility that my daughter and granddaughter are relatively safe.

RIP, being cautiously optimistic.

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1 user has voted.
Granma's picture

@PriceRip has a Covid questions answered place on their web site. One of the answers was that officials think what you do, that I may have been circulating for a while in places in US and there is no way to know for sure. Hold on to your optimism.

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1 user has voted.
Bisbonian's picture

"I know all too well that most people do not understand statistics."

72.8% of them, to be exact.

The Abbott and Costello routine is excellent.

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6 users have voted.

"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X