ECB says U.S. economic data release rigged

According to a white paper released by the European Central Bank on Monday, there is statistical evidence that a large swath of US economic data is getting leaked early, leading to price shifts in markets before the releases come out.

Here's the key bit from the ECB (emphasis ours):
We find evidence of substantial pre-announcement informed trading in equity index and Treasury futures markets for seven out of 21 market-moving U.S. macroeconomic announcements. About 30 minutes before the release time, prices begin to drift in the direction of the market’s subsequent reaction to the news. This drift accounts for 49 percent and 39 percent of the overall price adjustments in the E-mini S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury note futures markets, respectively, and the estimated magnitude of profits of informed traders underscores the economic significance of these price moves.

The biggest market movements, the ECB argued, are those that occur when a data point "surprises" investors. So, using the Bloomberg consensus forecast, the researchers looked at price drifts on the second-by-second S&P 500 market leading up to the release of significant "surprises" or data points that varied greatly from those consensus forecasts.

According to their data, nearly half of the market move due to an economic surprise occurs before the release of that data.
The ECB paper suggests two possible causes for early access to data: information leakage and superior forecasting.

The information leakage hypothesis suggests that people who receive the information during a "lock-up" period before the official release are getting the information out early. This is essentially the nefarious option.

That's called "corruption". Someone should go to jail.

War on Cash has begun

The European Central Bank will stop issuing 500 euro ($575) banknotes towards the end of 2018 on concerns it could facilitate illicit activities but outstanding bills will remain in use indefinitely, the ECB said in a statement on Wednesday.

Nothing to do with negative interest rates here. Nope. Not at all.

Daniel Ellsberg warns about Iraq

Daniel Ellsberg, who famously leaked the Pentagon Papers, told a nostalgic anti-war gathering in Washington, D.C., Tuesday “we may be weeks away” from President Barack Obama “furtively” sending new U.S. “combat units” to Iraq.
“As we talk, we may be weeks away from Marines being sent as units into combat in Iraq,” he said in a videotaped message before an assembly of anti-war activists who participated in the 1971 May Day civil disobedience protests that led to 12,000 arrests in the nation’s capital.
“Right now, Marines are being furtively being sent into combat in Iraq in a hopeless operation as before,” he said, adding that like the early days in Vietnam, there will be “gradually advisors calling in ‘air support.’”
Ellsberg, who turned 85 April 7, also predicted the war in Iraq will escalate if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or a Republican enters the White House.

News Flash: Sending MANPADs to Syria is still stupid

On May 4, 27 Members of Congress, led by Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) and Rep. Ted Yoho (R-FL), sent a bipartisan letter to President Obama urging him to maintain his opposition to the transfer shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles (“MANPADS”) to Syrian combatants. The letter followed a report in the Wall Street Journal that the Central Intelligence Agency was considering supplying Syrian insurgents with MANPADS.

Another 100+ migrants die

An estimated 113 people died in four shipwrecks between Libya and Italy at the weekend as the crossing becomes the preferred sea route for migrants to Europe, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) said on May 3.
With the closing of land routes in the Balkans and a recent deal under which Greece sends migrants back to Turkey, Italian officials have said they expect more people to try to make this longer and much more dangerous crossing from Libya.