News Dump Tuesday: Election Potpourri Edition

Trump not a Putin puppet?

For much of the summer, the F.B.I. pursued a widening investigation into a Russian role in the American presidential campaign. Agents scrutinized advisers close to Donald J. Trump, looked for financial connections with Russian financial figures, searched for those involved in hacking the computers of Democrats, and even chased a lead — which they ultimately came to doubt — about a possible secret channel of email communication from the Trump Organization to a Russian bank.
Law enforcement officials say that none of the investigations so far have found any conclusive or direct link between Mr. Trump and the Russian government. And even the hacking into Democratic emails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump.
Hillary Clinton’s supporters, angry over what they regard as a lack of scrutiny of Mr. Trump by law enforcement officials, pushed for these investigations.

Scary Google

b) The Voter Key is the development of a single record for a voter that aggregates all that is known about them. In 2016 smart phones will be used to identify, meet, and update profiles on the voter. A dynamic volunteer can easily speak with a voter and, with their email or other digital handle, get the voter videos and other answers to areas they care about ("the benefits of ACA to you" etc.)

Bitcoin isn't anonymous

The newcomers sense opportunity in one of bitcoin's flaws: Analytics companies -- fueled by government research grants -- have gotten really good at exposing users' identities, which were supposed to be hidden by public keys that reduced them to a mere string of numbers and letters. This is possible because all transactions are recorded in a permanent public ledger, allowing anyone to see the entire history of each bitcoin and all the activity of each account. A single payment to an online retailer can be enough to reveal a user’s identity, which in turn reveals everything that person has done with that account.
In other words, the same transparency that guarantees the validity of bitcoin transactions also allows people to find out whether a user’s bitcoin previously passed through dirty hands. Such information is both an asset and a liability. It’s useful for helping service providers make informed decisions about whether they want someone as a customer, but it can come with the responsibility of having to screen those customers to stay on the right side of the law. Here's a tool that shows how much bitcoin payment traffic has gone through various counterparties, such as the dark-web marketplace Silk Road:

A monopoly on spying

America paid about $16 billion to five companies last year for 80% of our contracted domestic and international surveillance: Leidos Holdings, CSRA Inc., SAIC, CACI International, and Booz Allen Hamilton, recently in the news following an employee arrest on cyberweapons theft charges.
Tim Shorrock at The Nation did the legwork to to come up with the numbers.

Junk bond bull market is over

Traders have yanked billions of dollars from the biggest corporate-debt exchange-traded funds in the past week. While some big flows in and out of these funds can be hard to interpret, these appear to stem from a real shift in sentiment.
First of all, it’s not just one ETF. Yes, the biggest junk-bond ETF recently experienced a record one-day outflow and has increasingly become a hotbed of activity.
Not only is money coming out of these funds, but investors are showing skittishness in other ways, too. For example, it's getting more expensive to hedge against losses using credit-default swaps, and yields on corporate bonds have sharply risen in the past few days. U.S. investment-grade bonds just had their worst monthly loss in more than a year. Dollar-denominated junk bonds have seen a 1 percent decline in the past week alone.
It seems that investors have finally grown tired of locking up their money in increasingly leveraged companies. It took them long enough; they’ve already gobbled up a record amount of new, investment-grade debt so far in 2016 and helped fuel an unprecedented spate of mergers. And they've accepted relatively meager yields for taking the risk.

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end of the bond bull market

Treasury 10-year note yields rose four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.86 percent at 10:29 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The yield difference between U.S. two- and 10-year notes widened, pushing the spread above 1 percentage point for the first time since May.
Spain’s sovereign debt led declines in Europe, pushing the yield on 10-year bonds to a four-month high, while those in the U.K. earlier approached the most since the nation voted to leave the European Union in June. Yields on similar-maturity German bunds increased two basis points to 0.18 percent.

Advancing on Mosul

Iraq's special forces entered the outskirts of Mosul on Tuesday and were advancing toward its more urban center despite fierce resistance by ISIS fighters who hold the city, an Iraqi general said.
Troops have entered Gogjali, a neighborhood inside Mosul's city limits, and were only 800 yards from the more central Karama district, according to Maj. Gen. Sami al-Aridi of the Iraqi special forces.

No escape means bloody battle to the end

The U.S.-led coalition has developed plans to target Islamic State militants from the air if they attempt to escape the Iraqi city of Mosul and head west toward Syria, as Iraqi ground forces close in on the city from several sides, a top U.S. general said Monday.
“This is all about getting after (the Islamic State) and setting up an opportunity where, should they try to escape, we have a built-in mechanism to kill them as they are departing,” said Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander of U.S. air forces in the Middle East.

The ruling class

They are last week’s scandal in a year running over with scandals, but in truth their significance goes far beyond mere scandal: they are a window into the soul of the Democratic party and into the dreams and thoughts of the class to whom the party answers.
The class to which I refer is not rising in angry protest; they are by and large pretty satisfied, pretty contented. Nobody takes road trips to exotic West Virginia to see what the members of this class looks like or how they live; on the contrary, they are the ones for whom such stories are written. This bunch doesn’t have to make do with a comb-over TV mountebank for a leader; for this class, the choices are always pretty good, and this year they happen to be excellent.
They are the comfortable and well-educated mainstay of our modern Democratic party. They are also the grandees of our national media; the architects of our software; the designers of our streets; the high officials of our banking system; the authors of just about every plan to fix social security or fine-tune the Middle East with precision droning. They are, they think, not a class at all but rather the enlightened ones, the people who must be answered to but who need never explain themselves.

Meltdown at Justice

Fewer than three of 10 Americans trust government to do the right thing always or most of the time, Gallup reports, and the years since 2007 are “the longest period of low trust in government in more than 50 years.” The details emerging about the multiple investigations into Hillary Clinton explain a lot about this ebbing public confidence in institutions such as the Justice Department and Federal Bureau of Investigation.
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Before Democrats burn James Comey in effigy, they should think about how the FBI director came to have an outsized influence in the election in the first place.

It’s not something Comey sought or welcomed. A law enforcement official who prizes his reputation, he didn’t relish becoming a hate figure for half the country or more. No, the only reason that Comey figures in the election at all is that Democrats knowingly nominated someone under FBI investigation.

Once upon a time — namely any presidential election prior to this one — this enormous political and legal vulnerability would have disqualified a candidate. Not this year, and not in the case of Hillary Clinton.

The country has clearly lowered its standards in this election, and Donald Trump’s madcap candidacy provides evidence of that almost every day. But Hillary’s nomination was itself an offense against American political norms and an incredibly reckless act.

And the Democrats were supposed to be the party acting rationally.

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bondibox's picture

TOP is all up in arms about a breaking story regarding a private server owned by the Trump organization. Slate broke the story first, and it's interesting from an IT point of view.

What we have are a bunch of tech experts who observed web traffic mentioning Trump's server. They discovered that a Russian bank was at the center of the activity.

The rest of the story is NOT a smoking gun. It is a mountain of circumstantial evidence that's being treated as a smoking gun.

The specifics of the server activity hinges around DNS, which is the system that converts a domain name into an IP address. Computers only know how to communicate with IP addresses, so when you tell your browser to go to caucus99percent.com, it first translates that into a usable address.

These tech experts found that the Russian server was the *only* computer on the internet making requests to convert Trump's server name into an IP address. That's the long and short of it.

But DNS doesn't work the way it was described by Slate. DNS works like a pyramid. At the top of the pyramid is the designated DNS server, this is usually provided by the hosting company. So for this website, the designated DNS server is NS1.BLUEHOST.COM

Now, the internet is built around the distribution of services. A very large website can't keep up with all of the DNS requests. So what happens when you try to visit a page like c99p is your computer first tries a local DNS server, and if they don't have the listing it goes up the chain until it gets an "authoritative" answer. At that point, it caches the answer so that next time it doesn't have to bother the designated DNS server.

The problem with this Slate story is these techies were sitting on Trump's authoritative DNS server and finding thousands of requests from the Russian bank. But as I just explained, there should only have been ONE request to that DNS server, all subsequent requests would have been directed to their local DNS server.

One explanation for this is that the Russian server was hard-coded to only use Trump's designated DNS server for all DNS requests. That would keep his IP information from "propagating" down the pyramid. But that's an unusual step, and not nearly as effective as simply creating a hosts file on the Russian server that does the DNS translation locally.

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“He may not have gotten the words out but the thoughts were great.”

even chased a lead — which they ultimately came to doubt — about a possible secret channel of email communication from the Trump Organization to a Russian bank.

From gjohnsit's excerpt above.

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bondibox's picture

A lot of red flags to the Slate story, now it looks like it was debunked a while back. I can't find any references to the FBI dropping the inquiry until yesterday / today. The WaPo did a better job at explaining it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/01/that-secret-tr...

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“He may not have gotten the words out but the thoughts were great.”

edg's picture

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Sandino's picture

Call me paranoid, but I read the story about the "plans to target Islamic State militants from the air if they attempt to escape the Iraqi city of Mosul and head west toward Syria" as propaganda intended to counter the story I find more plausible that the ISIS forces from Mosul would be funneled into Syria to fight Assad and the russkies by the US.

Hopefully I am just hopelessly cynical and paranoid.

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riverlover's picture

Multiple players accused, multiple investigations ongoing, perhaps?

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

edg's picture

Trump has been exonerated by the FBI. I wonder why I didn't read about that in the Washington Post?

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link

Investors may not realize it, but the Walking Dead is not the only zombie show running right now. The oil markets are at least as scary and have zombies that are much harder to kill than AMC’s popular program. While about 100 oil companies have gone bankrupt in 2015 and 2016, almost none of those companies have actually “died”. Instead, most of the firms are still pumping oil just as rapidly as before. That, in turn, has significant implications for investors in the market.

The 70 bankrupt firms are producing roughly 1 million bpd of oil – about the same level of production they had before bankruptcy. Those zombie firms represent around 5 percent of U.S. production and there are no signs of that production declining. The theory that bankruptcy would reduce oil production was always flawed. Producers have largely gone bankrupt under Chapter 11 provisions, which in turn has allowed them to keep producing oil and paying upkeep expenses, while at the same time shedding their debt burden.

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from your link makes the most important point of the week:

... the only reason that Comey figures in the election at all is that Democrats knowingly nominated someone under FBI investigation.

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good people in the FBI, the CIA, and the NSA, but that unfortunately bad people are at the highest levels of these organizations.

It seems the Clintons and the Bushes believe they can skirt the law by controlling which people are in such leadership positions. But if lower level agents, who actually do the work of investigating crimes, assert their intention to do the right thing, the powers that be start to feel heat. Let's hear it for the Good Cops, whistleblowers and field agents who are enforcing the law.

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organization with extensive media contacts. Disgruntled special agents can get their stories out through their retired agent organization. If there is indeed a revolt brewing because agents are being misused, then look for this Society to be the source media will use. The media will get the information and it'll be a tough editor or publisher who would refuse to run the story - balanced from the HRC camp of course.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

some perspective

PayPal co-founder and tech billionaire Peter Thiel on Monday offered a jaw-dropping defense of his decision to bankroll wrestling icon Hulk Hogan’s invasion of privacy lawsuit against Gawker for publishing a sex tape featuring him.

“If you’re a single-digit millionaire like Hulk Hogan, you have no effective access to our legal system,” he said. “It costs too much. This was the modus operandi of Gawker in large part it was to go after people who had no chance of fighting back.”

The declaration came as Thiel was speaking at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., to tout the presidential bid of GOP candidate Donald Trump.

Thiel spent at least $10 million supporting Hogan’s lawsuit against Gawker. Thiel had been engaged in a personal feud with the website for years. As a result of the lawsuit, Gawker was driven out of business.

Fordham Law School professor and criminal justice expert John Pfaff was quick to note that in 2007, many states’ entire budgets for indigent defense — money allotted to provide legal counsel to those who cannot afford it — is in the single-digit millions.

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