It's going to be a cold winter in Europe
Yesterday I detailed how Germany is totally freaking out over the shut down of Nord Stream 1.
It turns out they are right to freak out.
Gazprom has not booked gas transit capacity for exports via the Yamal-Europe pipeline for August, auction results showed on Monday (18 July).Russian gas accounts for some 40% in European gas market, while Yamal – Europe pipeline usually accounts for about 15% of Russia’s westbound supply of gas to Europe and Turkey.
Yamal doesn’t run across Ukraine, but across Belarus, to Poland and Germany.Also, Gazprom has also not booked additional gas transit capacity via the Sudzha crossing point into Ukraine for August, or via Velke Kapusany on the Slovakia-Ukraine border for the same period.
In addition, Russia’s Gazprom has declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe.
So what is Europe going to do about this? The EU signed a new gas deal with Azerbaijan.
Some analysts, however, are questioning the reliability of Azerbaijan as a supplier.“It should be taken into account that the route of Azerbaijani gas to Europe passes through Russia’s sphere of influence,” Gubad Ibadoghlu, senior visiting fellow at the London School of Economics, said in a blog post in May.
Like Europe, Russia is looking for different energy partners.
Construction of a Russian-Chinese natural gas pipeline transiting through Mongolia will begin in 2024, the landlocked country’s prime minister has said.The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, which will deliver Europe-bound gas from western Siberian fields to China for the first time, is expected to go online in 2030.
Energy industry executives expect the timeline to accelerate due Moscow’s souring relations with the West over the war in Ukraine and the subsequent shrinking European market for its key export.
Neither of these alternatives will have enough of an impact this year to make a significant difference.
Comments
Europe is currently experiencing a climate change summer
Europe Heat Wave Fuels Intense Wildfires, Deadly Temperatures And Travel Woes
-- so I couldn't tell you if they're really worried at this point about cold. Most likely the residents of Europe (and, I should add, of the UK) doubtless spend each day waiting for that damned sun to go down and wondering if they'll ever get air conditioning. I know this because I was under the 2021 heat dome.
I think David Rovics the folksinger is over there:
Here's a taste of his wisdom:
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
Gazprom force majeure. Russia turns up pain dial on EU
Reports in Spain & Portugal
deaths due to current heat wave exceed 1000.
That translates to multiple 1000s in all of Europe.
So what powers Europe's grid?
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
I'm sure you've got whole cities --
living in the city square's water-fountains. It's been hot there before, but I really don't know how much of Europe has air conditioning.
“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon
The Armenian experience
As I understand it, when the Soviet Union broke apart, Armenia relied on a nuclear power plant. The plant was shut down leaving Armenia cold and in the dark for upcoming winter. The end result was that Armenians denuded their trees and forests in search of wood for the winter. I have to wonder if a scenario like this might happen in parts of Europe.
BTW, my company had a R&D branch in Armenia which constantly published in company newsletter tree planting events by such-and-such a team. I only later realized that Armenians were trying to re-forest their country one tree at a time.