It looks like the neocons will finally get their war with Iran

The destruction of ISIS has given Iran the one thing they have always dreamed of - the Shia Crescent becoming a political fact. Maybe more.

The Arab world is confronted not just by a Shia Crescent, “but by a Shia full moon”, says one confidant of the prince.

Of course this political reality that the neocons created with their incompetence, is totally unacceptable to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
A direct road from Tehran to Damascus is exactly what the neocons had promised to prevent.

Recent events in Syria indicate that the Assad "regime and its allies [are] racing to establish an east-west 'Shiite axis' from Iran to Lebanon and the United States [is] seemingly looking to cement a north-south 'Sunni axis' from the Gulf states and Jordan to Turkey," Fabrice Balanche, a French expert on Syria and a visiting fellow at The Washington institute for Near East Policy, wrote recently.
"What's left of Islamic State territory is the key part of Iran's plan to connect Iran to Lebanon," Firas Abi-Ali, senior Middle East analyst at IHS Country Risk in London, told Bloomberg.

Hundreds of Iranian-backed Iraqi militiamen have massed near a U.S.-training base located near the country’s border with Iraq. Clashes have already occurred.
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Supposedly our forces feel threatened, but our jihadist allies tell a different story.

Syrian rebels say the United States and its allies are sending them more arms to try to fend off a new push into the southeast by Iran-backed militias aiming to open an overland supply route between Iraq and Syria.
The stakes are high as Iran seeks to secure its influence from Tehran to Beirut in a "Shi'ite crescent" of Iranian influence through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where Sunni Arab states have lost out in power struggles with Iran.

This is nothing more than bare-knuckles, military politics.
Last week President Trump who told America’s regional Sunni allies that he’ll help roll back Iranian power, which is a very bold promise.
And just in case you weren't seeing a pattern, the Democratic Party mouthpiece, Washington Post, says it's time for a proxy war against Iran.

However, if Trump think he can just bomb those Iranian-backed forces in Syria without risk, he has forgotten who they are and where they come from.

“Iran-backed” is popular parlance for the rebels, and for the US at times, as a way to say they are Shi’ite militias. The Shi’ite militias are backing the Alawite-dominated Assad government in Syria, and the Shi’ite-dominated Abadi government in neighboring Iraq.
But by and large, they’re the same militias, or at least affiliated ones. The US view of them changes dramatically at the border, however, as inside Iraq they’re treasured allies helping to fight against ISIS and other Sunni Islamists to save the government, and in Syria they’re bitter enemies, trying to fight ISIS and other Sunni Islamists, also to save the government.

"Treasured allies" or "bitter enemies" depends on which side of the border, to Americans.
But not to Iraqis.

“The Americans will not be allowed to control the border,” Hadi al-Amiri, the leader of a pro-Assad Iraqi militia that recently moved into the area, said in an interview with Lebanese news station al-Mayadeen TV on May 30.

It's ridiculously naive to think that this fight won't spill over the border into Iraq.

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On to Biden since 1973

k9disc's picture

@doh1304

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

@k9disc @k9disc
stylized recreation of WW1, a 7 player game with very simple rules, so simple no player could win it as a military strategy game. You had to make alliances - and at the right time backstab your partner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)
In the 70s there were a number of t-shirts advertising various games, D+D, with a picture of a Conan style barbarian warrior on the front, and for Diplomacy a picture of a bloody knife buried to the hilt in the back.

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@doh1304 In college we played "refereed" diplomacy games. 7 players, and one referee who collected the moves once daily.

I refereed one game. Within three moves, both my room and my mailbox were broken into to steal / substitute moves. I told everyone to fuck off, game over.

Diplomacy the game is BRUTAL.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@doh1304 You mean like Risk?

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal @Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
Risk is a simple strategy game. Diplomacy… well, there are moves, but the game is in convincing other players to support you, then betraying them.

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k9disc's picture

my country.

A good friend of mine game theoried me out (Fuck You, Buddy). I was the second of his national victims.

@doh1304

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

CB's picture

@doh1304
Gunboat Diplomacy.
Here's latest from Moon of Alabama:

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/05/trump-dumps-pretension-of-altruism-...

...
The neo-conservative chaperone in the White House, National Security Advisor General McMaster, and the Goldman Sachs veto holder in the White House, economic advisor Gary Cohn, penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that reveals the new true face of the U.S. empire:

The president embarked on his first foreign trip with a clear-eyed outlook that the world is not a “global community” but an arena where nations, nongovernmental actors and businesses engage and compete for advantage. We bring to this forum unmatched military, political, economic, cultural and moral strength. Rather than deny this elemental nature of international affairs, we embrace it.

Translation: "Power is with the strong. We feel strong. Screw you!"

At every stop in our journey, we delivered a clear message to our friends and partners: Where our interests align, we are open to working together to solve problems and explore opportunities. We let adversaries know that we will not only take their measure, deter conflict through strength, and defend our interests and values, but also look for areas of common interest that allow us to work together. In short, those societies that share our interests will find no friend more steadfast than the United States. Those that choose to challenge our interests will encounter the firmest resolve.

From now on the U.S. will only engage in selective, temporary friendships. "Where our interests align", and only there, will the U.S. be friendly because it obviously serves U.S. interests. Wherever a country deviates from that, even partially, it will "encounter the firmest resolve." That is as clear a threat as it can be.
...
The McMaster/Cohn op-ed ends with this:

America First signals the restoration of American leadership and our government’s traditional role overseas—to use the diplomatic, economic and military resources of the U.S. to enhance American security, promote American prosperity, and extend American influence around the world.

That is a lonesome approach and it is unlikely to enhance, promote and extend anything but disdain against the U.S. But it may well be the line the U.S. will follow over the coming years.

If this is the end of the U.S. empire that evolved from World War II it is at least an honest one.

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@CB both domestic and foreign. The nature of Capitalism.

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Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur

thanatokephaloides's picture

@lizzyh7

Competition to the death

...... of everybody and everything .......

both domestic and foreign. The nature of Capitalism.

In very deed, unfortunately.

Diablo

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@lizzyh7 Capitalism is really a failed system. It keeps grabbing onto ideas like merit and work and innovation and democracy and comfort and saying they can't exist without it, mainly because it's a failed system by every conceivable metric.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal
That's why the news fascinates me so much these days.
The economic system broke in 2008. It's a walking zombie now.
The political system began breaking down in 2015, and is still in the process of it.

TPTB know this is true, but don't know what to do.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@gjohnsit They don't know what to do because all the answers would require changing power relations. At least, all the answers I've come up with. There's no way the economic and political power can stay concentrated where it is without the system self-destructing.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@lizzyh7 It's odd to feel so much dread and so much relief at the same time.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

@CB Realistically, Obama & Clinton frequently pursued a similar policy of temporary friendships. They were just less open about it.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

@CB

…to die, already.

Iran Signs Oil For Goods Deal With Russia: Breaks Free Of Petrodollar

May 29, 2017

Iran signed an agreement with Russia under which it has broken free from the petrodollar, and will "sell", or rather barter crude oil to Russia in exchange for products. The announcement was made by Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh, as reported by Russia’s RIA and TASS news agencies.

"The deal has been concluded. We are just waiting for the implementation from the Russian side. We have no difficulties; we signed the contract, everything is coordinated between the parties. We are waiting for Russian oil companies to send tankers,” he said, as quoted by Russian news agencies. While sanctions against Iran have been lifted, restrictions on trade in US dollars for the country's banks remain, making it difficult to sell oil on the open market.

The Iran-Russia trade agreement had been initially proposed in 2014.

That happened just after the US overthrew the Ukraine's democratic government, which was followed by US sanctions against Russia. Suddenly, along came China with the world's largest-ever oil deal for Russia. And to topping it off, Iran handing Russia a way to smack down US Dollar hegemony: An oil-for-goods deal worth more than $20 billion, which would enable Tehran to boost vital energy exports in defiance of Western sanctions, at the same time delivering a lethal blow to the Petrodollar.

These "unintended consequences" of the US war crime in Ukraine spurred the US into immediate negotiations with Iran, taking the world by surprise.

I remember a day back then when John Kerry, reeling from all this, blurted to the WSJ that the US was forced to make a missile deal with Iran or the US Dollar would crash. His statement was completely out of context and went right over everybody's heads (and it sure surprised me) before dropping down the memory hole. But Kerry was absolutely right about that.

Reuters had reported on the Iran-Russia deal-in-progress in 2014, announcing that Moscow and Tehran were discussing a barter deal that would see Moscow buy up to 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods. Alarmed, the White House said such a deal would raise "serious concerns" and would be inconsistent with the nuclear talks between world powers and Iran.

Little did the US know back in 2014 that less than three years later, Russia would also be running the US, courtesy of wholesale manipulation of tens of millions of Americans, whom it hacked and convinced to vote for Trump.

Sarcasm aside, when the sanctions against Tehran were lifted in 2016, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the deal was no longer necessary. However, Novak said in March 2017 that the plan was back on the table with Russia buying 100,000 barrels per day from Iran and selling the country $45 billion worth of goods, Russia Today reported.

Yes, the Petrodollar-busting, Russia-Iran deal was revived and kick-started just this week due to US bad-faith dealing within the new US-Iran agreement. The US Deep State has sabotaged it by back-channel blocking other nations from completing financial transactions with Iran.

The International Monetary Fund recently admitted that while Iran has been reconnected to SWIFT to accept bank transfers that paid for its goods sold globally, significant bureaucratic red tape prevents Iranian banks from reliably reconnecting to global banks due to obscure and lingering US sanctions that are spuriously triggered. Or, something, something.

“US dollar clearing restrictions have not been lifted and pose a significant challenge for non-US banks who may do business with Iran, but may not be paid in US dollars,” it added.

And since necessity is the mother of invention, what better way to bypass the world's reserve currency than to go back to the way commerce was conducted before currencies were even created: through barter.

So, as always, the US continues to heap the nation's treasure into the pockets of any US corporation participating in war profiteering, with a current focus on helping Israel and the Saudis exterminate every living Shiite in the Middle East. Next: Africa.

Meanwhile, China's One Belt One Road Global Summit this weekend marks the real beginning of a New World Order with multipolar sovereignty to protect the voices and interests of the People, regionally, while boosting development for all.

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IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"
k9disc's picture

@Pluto's Republic

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Song of the lark's picture

@Pluto's Republic Russia is a huge exporter of oil. Last year they were temporarily the biggest exporter on the planet pushing KSA out of first for awhile. Russian economy is about the size of Italy. They aren't using that much oil? The deal must be for other goods plus refining capacity and re export?

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dervish's picture

@Song of the lark and trading off of the dollar. Russia certainly doesn't need the oil, but oil is better than money these days, whether sold or stockpiled.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

CB's picture

@Song of the lark
Iran's main customers are China, Japan and a number of other countries such as Turkey. Russia sells to these same countries. Whether it goes directly to China or to Russia then to China is irrelevant. This way, Iran gets stuff Russia makes for their oil and Russia gets yuan for the oil. Then Russia gets stuff from China with these yuan. It's win-win-win. Notice there was no intermediate use of the US$ in these transactions.

The important thing is that these sales are off the US dollar. Normally each country must have US$'s to buy and sell oil. To get the US$'s in the first place, a country has to sell something to America - wheat, gold jewelry, toys, leather, whatever they have to sell. Now they have a fistful of US$'s which they can use to buy the oil they need to power their machinery and trucks etc.

Because buying and selling oil never stops, these dollars go round and round and never return to the US. The more the world uses oil, the more of these "Petrodollars" there are going round and round and never come back to the US to be exchanged for material goods. When people have too many of these US$'s they deposit them in the US treasuries. The US then uses these as collateral to borrow money to pay for things like a global police force to ensure that everyone continues to use the US$.

The best way to look at this process is like kiting a check. Eventually, everyone in the world has trillions of these paper IOU's. It's called reserve currency. It's part of how bankers and the US got so rich. Every time these kited checks go round and round without being exchanged for actual goods a small cut is taken for services.

What would happen if the world no longer needs this paper money and wants to exchange it for some real goods instead? This is why the powers that be do not want to stop using oil. What's in it for them if you make your own energy from the wind and sun?

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enhydra lutris's picture

@CB
in any way contradict your argument

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

CB's picture

@enhydra lutris
China can pick up their 'Russian' oil at an Iranian port and bring it home just as they picked up their 'Iranian' oil every year before. The Iranian oil does not have to physically go to Russia. In fact, the Iranian oil sold to Russia can go to Turkey. Turkey pays Russia and Russia sends S-400 missiles to Iran. Turkey then mixes Iranian oil with ISIS black market oil from Syria and sells it to Israel.

Actually, Turkey used to buy tankers of really cheap US sanctioned Iranian oil using gold bullion. The Turks sent the bullion to Dubai where the Iranians picked it up. There were all sorts of schemes using Italian lira and other countries as intermediates to hide the transactions. The US clamped down in 2013 and put a stop to it. Russia put a stop to the ISIS smuggling.

Can't get much more fungible than that. Heavy, sour crude is much less fungible because much of it is refined by US refineries in the Gulf.

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dervish's picture

@CB

This is why the powers that be do not want to stop using oil. What's in it for them if you make your own energy from the wind and sun?

The PTB are sworn to support and promote the oil-based economy until the last drop is extracted, or the empire falls, whichever happens first.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Song of the lark Consolidating power. Because we, with our consolidated power, have done such an incredibly shitty job.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

dervish's picture

@CB Promoting prosperity while increasing hardware and foreign commitments are mutually exclusive concepts. The hard truth for these neocons is that the US simply can't afford to maintain its gargantuan military indefinitely, and likewise it can't maintain deficit spending indefinitely, sooner or sooner still, something is going to break.

If we're lucky, the fall from power will be gradual, like the fall of the Spanish Empire, which oddly has a lot of parallels.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

CB's picture

@dervish
they stole from the New World on armaments and war to ensure they could continue to steal more gold and silver which they needed to spend on more armaments and war to ensure they could continue to steal even more gold and silver which they needed to spend on........

Eventually they had overextended themselves and went broke. The natives revolted, other empires including the nascent American Empire intervened and... pfft... the Spanish Empire was dead. I wonder what the total cost in innocent blood for this episode in the sordid history of the world was?

I don't think the US Empire is going to go as "quietly", from causes within or from without.

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enhydra lutris's picture

@doh1304
Much later, in my mid to late 20s, I took 3rd in the diplomacy section of some 3-day west coast game con.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

continually refer to Syria's government as a "regime".

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native

thanatokephaloides's picture

@native

Funny how most news reports continually refer to Syria's government as a "regime".

That's because it is one, literally. (The "reg" in "regime" comes from the Latin "regis", "of the king".) Like the governments of North Korea and (until 2013) Cuba, it's essentially a kingdom which doesn't admit it is one. Any time the same family holds undisputable executive power for multiple generations, the nation that family rules is a kingdom and the leaders ought to make honest men of themselves and call themselves King.

Cuba, in fact, has made a counter-example out of this when Raúl Castro announced in 2013 that he would not run for another term as President in 2018. I note that the term "regime" was applied a lot less to Cuba after that.

Of course, please, do not infer from this that I approve of the blackening of the record of the Assad/Ba'ath Socialist government by Western news operations. I know I'm being offered a bunch of worthless, tasteless garbage to try to convince me that socialism is unworkable and we have no alternative to predatory crony capitalist barbarism. For the record: NO SALE.

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

CB's picture

@thanatokephaloides
or the failed Clinton regime.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@CB

Kinda like the Bush regime or the failed Clinton regime.

Veritably!

(And terms I've used for both, by the way!)

Smile

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

thanatokephaloides's picture

..... has any benefit side what-so-fucking-ever for ordinary Americans in the working classes.

This statement remains true regardless of the gender, orientation, race, creed, color, ethnic origin, age, etc. of the same said Americans.

NO nation has ever benefited from prolonged warfare. -- Sun Tzu

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

detroitmechworks's picture

@thanatokephaloides The corporate fiction we've created can exist without food, water, shelter or real estate. All things that wars destroy...

Corporations LOVE warfare, because they're a protected class in wars (Can't have essential infrastructure targeted! That's a War CRIME!) and yet gain huge profits by gouging from both the perpetrators (Weapons Sales) and the victims (Sales of everything else that the war destroyed.)

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

CB's picture

Those fuckers in Washington are more interested in destruction than in bettering peoples lives. The godamn country is slowly circling the bowl and all they can think of is pushing the handle.

Meanwhile, America's "greatest threat" is building bridges and trying to improve lives.

May 15, 2017

Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, is talking with Russian press during the 'One Belt, One Road', global co-operation forum which has entered its second day in Beijing and includes topic issues about global and regional economy, and international cooperation.

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detroitmechworks's picture

in their war against the rest of the "Christians"...

After all, the TRUE story came down through Joseph Smith and his decedents, and therefore it's perfectly logical to demand that everybody else in your area follow your laws or else be murdered, robbed and forgotten, all in the name of GOOD!

Religious wars are the absolute worst, and we're pretending that we can control them.

That's just... stupid. I mean, really, really stupid.

The kind of stupid you look at and just marvel at the perfect lack of foresight, thought or reflection.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

thanatokephaloides's picture

@detroitmechworks

Religious wars are the absolute worst, and we're pretending that we can control them.

That's just... stupid. I mean, really, really stupid.

The kind of stupid you look at and just marvel at the perfect lack of foresight, thought or reflection.

The kind of stupid that burns..... and keeps on burning!

Bad

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

Bollox Ref's picture

that was the Thirty Years War.

Odd combinations of 'allies' that over time laid waste to Central Europe.

(See Catholic France (Richelieu) subsidizing Lutheran Sweden (Gustavus II Adolphus) to fight the Catholic Holy Roman Emperor, Ferdinand II)

Good times.

Callot.jpg

(See Callot)

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Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

CB's picture

@Bollox Ref
The US had similar orchards.....

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