IS caliphate has only weeks to live

The Battle of Mosul has been going on for seven months now - longer than Stalingrad.
More than 90% of Mosul has been liberated from ISIS, leaving an area of just 9 square-kilometers. The fight for the last 10% promises to be catastrophically awful.

“Old Mosul will finally turn into a quagmire for Iraqi forces as every house in Old Mosul has a basement," Muayed Salm al-Jaash, an urban warfare expert, told Rudaw. "ISIS has fortified its positions there, and the Iraqi army is inexperienced and has no urban warfare force."
...“The Iraqi army’s tanks will stand by the gates of Old Mosul,” Jasim, the military expert said. “90 percent of the militants remaining there are suicide bombers. That is why it’s going to be a tough war. It will be street fighting that will settle the war. ISIS has dug a network of tunnels in Old Mosul that connects all the neighborhoods from underneath.”

Mosul will fall soon, and Donald Trump will get to look presidential for a while.
There's no sense in denying it. You just need to brace yourself for it.

Meanwhile in Syria, Kurdish forces have reached the Gates of Raqqa, the capital of the caliphate.

U.S.-backed fighters on Tuesday reached the northern entrance of the Syrian city of Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State group, amid intense clashes and airstrikes on Raqqa's northern and eastern edges, opposition activists said.
The latest push by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces brings them to about 3 kilometers (2 miles) from the city where a long and deadly battle is expected in the coming weeks, said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The Fall of Raqqa is still months away, but it is inevitable at this point. The SDF has Raqqa surrounded on three sides.
No one cares that Syrian civilians are dying by the dozens every day from our bombs.

Nor will any American care what happens to Iraq and Syria after Trump gets done taking credit for this victory.
But the locals care.
They know that Iraq is hopelessly broken.

While we bomb Mosul and Raqqa, Iran-backed militias in Iraq have advanced all the way to the Syrian border in the name of fighting ISIS.

Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani, the iconic head of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, was reportedly pictured with PMF forces at a border site in northwestern Iraq shortly after militias had secured it, signaling the importance of the event. Iran has also sent advisers and supported powerful paramilitary movements such as the Lebanon-based Hezbollah that back the Syrian military as it attempts to restore control of its side of the Syria-Iraq border.

The symbolism of this moment is obvious to everyone: the Shia Crescent is becoming a political fact. Maybe more.

The Arab world is confronted not just by a Shia Crescent, “but by a Shia full moon”, says one confidant of the prince.

The KSA is unlikely to tolerate this.

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Alligator Ed's picture

to use, fighting Shia inside their own border. Poetic justice, if mass killing can be said to be poetic (which apparently it is according to Hillary and Neocons). The Iranians have centuries old history of being intellectually curious and inventive, maintaining that heritage even now despite widespread ostracism from US-led coalitions. The Saudis have centuries old history of being centuries old. What have they achieved technologically since 1100 AD? Nothing. In fact the great scientific enlightenment occurring in Arabia from about 800 AD oil 1100 was stifled by clerical revisionism from which they have yet to emerge.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Alligator Ed The Saudis have centuries old history of being centuries old. What have they achieved technologically since 1100 AD? Nothing. In fact the great scientific enlightenment occurring in Arabia from about 800 AD oil 1100 was stifled by clerical revisionism from which they have yet to emerge.

in vast and unforgiving wasteland does not exactly lend itself to the development of refined culture or scientific discovery.

Not sure you can fault their religion for that. More like their religion was a byproduct of their harsh environment. (/Jared Diamond impersonation)

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Alligator Ed's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger Unless you know that desertification of Arabia began in 1100. Also Mohammed lived in the 7th Century and thus Arabia must have been desert at that time, then became lush with vegetation for 3 centuries before desertification recurred.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger Hey, the rest of those desert peoples did all right:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_architecture

1280px-Great_Mosque_of_Kairouan,_prayer_hall.jpg

Closeup_of_Mir-i-Arab_Madrasa.jpg

And if architecture ain't your thing, there's this:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/sep/26/baghdad-centre-of-scientif...

and this:
During the post-classical era, Islamic medicine was the most advanced in the world, integrating concepts of the ancient Greek, Roman, Persian as well as the ancient Indian traditions of Ayurveda. At the same time, the knowledge of the classical medicine was nearly lost to the medieval medicine of Western Europe, only to be regained by European physicians when they became familiar with Islamic medical authors during the Renaissance of the 12th century.[4]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Library_of_Alexandria

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Alligator Ed Religious fundamentalism and inventiveness often don't mix.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Alligator Ed's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal That is their nature. Their facts are set in stone as revealed in the Bible (Q'ran, Torah, what have you). They await revelations from God before they will accept modification of ideology. Unfortunately, a merciful god isn't messed us with its presence for a long time.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

The KSA is unlikely to tolerate this.

they'll have much choice.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger

Who is the enemy again?

Syrian rebels are reporting that the US has been increasing the supply of arms to their fighters, particularly in southeast Syria,, with a specific eye on trying to forestall an offensive by “Iran-backed militias” in the area, who are trying to connect a surface supply route from Iraq to Syria.
“Iran-backed” is popular parlance for the rebels, and for the US at times, as a way to say they are Shi’ite militias. The Shi’ite militias are backing the Alawite-dominated Assad government in Syria, and the Shi’ite-dominated Abadi government in neighboring Iraq.

But by and large, they’re the same militias, or at least affiliated ones. The US view of them changes dramatically at the border, however, as inside Iraq they’re treasured allies helping to fight against ISIS and other Sunni Islamists to save the government, and in Syria they’re bitter enemies, trying to fight ISIS and other Sunni Islamists, also to save the government.

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Pricknick's picture

More than 90% of Mosul has been liberated from ISIS

More than 90% of Mosul has been destroyed while being liberated from ISIS.
They sure are lucky we're there to save them!
I have nothing but absolute hate for our current government.
[video:https://youtu.be/U1mlCPMYtPk]

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

janis b's picture

@Pricknick

And the video is powerfully arresting.

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CB's picture

it will recover with the help of Russia and China.

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lotlizard's picture

In the Western establishment’s foreign policy universe, the Saudis and the Gulf tyrants share our values! They’re willing to play ball with you-know-who! That makes them “moderate”!

Word of G~d (the New York Times, the Economist, Foreign Affairs magazine) tells me so!

Dictators? The West adores ’em, as long as they’re not (shudder) socialist! If they’re nepotistic and feudal, so much the better!

What’s so bad about these absolute monarchs, anyway? They’re (yawn) just another kind of plutocrat! Western elites love these guys! They do good works with their money! They’ve introduced reforms! Really! I heard all about it through the media they own! They’re just like (the plutocrats who own) us!

Seriously though, maybe the West deserves Trump? Taste of our own medicine, in a way? The type of guy the West regularly sets up to rule in other places, to keep the people in line?

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@lotlizard
may not share America's values, but they definitely share the ambitions of America's ruling elite. One of which is to prevent at all costs, the formation of a stable and contiguous Shia crescent. To achieve this end, any number of America's values may be considered as expendable.

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native

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@native We still have values?

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

Check the bottom drawer, right there under the divorce papers.

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native

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@native Nicely fielded! Touche.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

With the defeat of ISIS army as proxy to the Sunni states, who will replace them? It would not surprise me to see either NATO or US troops go in.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

Arabia with the entire Muslim world.

The enlightenment occurred over a broad swath from India to the Atlantic and was caused by the unification of the region under Islam, which brought knowledge and education.

But that unification never happens without nomadic tribes people able to travel long distances in a harsh climate to spread their message.

Later, after territorial consolidation, the enlightenment ended, but that wasn't because of religious revisionism. It simply petered out because there were no longer new places from which to gain new ideas.

Then the Mongols invaded... Then the Ottomans took over....

Also, your argument assumes that the sect of Islam practiced in Arabia in 1100 is the same as that practiced today, which is simply not true. Wahhabism has only been around for about two hundred years.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger Right it would be like comparing Gnostic Christians to Pat Robertson.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger Well, the Ottomans...although reprehensible in many ways...hardly fell short in terms of the nicer accoutrements of civilization. I mean, they made a big impact, and not just in terms of numbers of dead or tortured people.

Istanbul was one of the glories of the ancient world, as I understand it.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

dervish's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal called Magnificent Century, set in the time of Suleiman the Magnificent. Warning, it's highly addictive.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

Maybe they shouldn't have wholeheartedly participated in--and even invented some of--the policies that made it possible.

For. Fuck's. Sakes.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal Send that message to the fucking glowing ball, blowhards.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

that war is by far the worst of all possible evils -- and that therefore no war can ever be justified, anywhere, for any reason. The existence of ISIS has caused me to lose that certainty... or belief, or hope, or faith, or whatever it was.

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native

CB's picture

@native
Who created the conditions from which ISIS arose? Who fueled it, nurtured it and fanned the flames? This scourge would not have existed in the first place without priming from the illegal war of aggression waged by the United States of America - the Iraq War.

Nuremberg Tribunal's final judgment - Judge Norman Birkett:

"The charges in the Indictment that the defendants planned and waged aggressive wars are charges of the utmost gravity. War is essentially an evil thing. Its consequences are not confined to the belligerent states alone, but affect the whole world. To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole."

How many of us knew what would happen back when the bombs first started dropping in the ME? How many warnings were given? Why were they all ignored?

The truth is, what we see happening right now is what the war hawks in the MIC and it's related agencies desired - the complete destruction and balkanization of any viable Muslim State in the MENA. It was carefully planned and implemented by propagandizing and weaponizing existing ethnic and religious fault-lines.

It is tantamount to dropping a hydrogen bomb on the San Andreas Fault in order to destroy San Francisco despite knowing there is a possibility of destroying the entire west coast and not giving a fuck if that occurs.

From the "Yinon Plan" to the "Ya’alon Strategy"
by Alfredo Jalife-Rahme

While the United States on the one hand, and France and Turkey on the other, are trying to reshape the Levant in their own way, Alfredo Jalife-Rahme highlights the continuity between the 1982 Oded Yinon Plan and Moshe Ya’alon’s present-day strategy. While endorsing the vision of both plans, Israel continues to pursue its own balkanization agenda. Historically, Israel has always sought to dismember the countries surrounding her.

"Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi’ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan. (...) This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today."
Oded Yinon, “A strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties”, Kivunum, translated by Israel Shahak, February 1982.

As an aside, many of our discussions here in C99 remind me of Jay Farquharson. Do you know why he was BOJO'd by the Orange Stain?

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@CB
and I recognize that the USA is uniquely and criminally responsible for the very existence of ISIS. Nonetheless ISIS did develop, and it did metastasize into a serious international threat. Something had to be done to stop it, no? Without the concerted anti-ISIS military actions (aka war) that have been undertaken, it would have continued to exist, and likely would have further expanded its territory and influence. At least so it seems to me, and I think probably to most people in the Middle East as well. Wouldn't you say, that the ISIS phenomenon was not something that could have been safely ignored?

... So then, Jay Farquharson finally got the axe did he? That's a pity. He was one of only a very few DKos members who actually knew what he was talking about in the realm of foreign affairs. But I can't say I'm surprised. Here they've got a remarkably knowledgeable fellow, an invaluable resource, but he's not much of a group-thinker -- so I guess they figured they needed to excommunicate him. I hope he's off to greener pastures.

I believe moses freeman is still hanging in there though...

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native

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@native You weren't addressing me, but I'd say if there is an evil (like the Islamic State), it matters a lot who fights it. If the people fighting it have a vested interest in the fight continuing as long as possible, and if they themselves were instrumental, even at a distance, in creating the evil in the first place...

well, let's just say not all wars are created equal. a lot depends on who's fighting and why.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

and leave the ISIS-fighting to others? Maybe that would be preferable... but without US help, primarily via air attacks, those others would be hard pressed to get very far at all. And the Iraqi government has requested military support. We are there in a limited capacity, and by invitation only. US military has been in full cooperation with the Kurds as well, in their efforts to seize ISIS-held territory. I find it hard to fault what the US is doing now, in Iraq.

Syria is a whole other story.

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native

Pricknick's picture

@native

I find it hard to fault what the US is doing now, in Iraq

.
Just WOW!
You must believe in the old adage of if you break it you fix it.
Maybe we just quit breaking shit. Hell of a lot easier.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

@native .
for US military involvement in MENA, then I fully agree. But if you think that US military power is not essential to the defeat of ISIS as a viable political entity, I would have to respectfully disagree. Perhaps you suppose that a Saudi-financed Wahhabi extremist governate straddling both Iraq and Syria would not be such a bad thing after all? I find the likelihood of that outcome very difficult to countenance, as I'm sure most Iraqis and Syrians do as well. Only brute military force can prevent that from happening. Are you so immersed in humanitarian ideology, you cannot see that organized violence can sometimes be neccessary?

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native

dervish's picture

@native that the US hasn't shown itself to be a reliable opponent of ISIS. They oppose them over in that direction, yet help them in another, much as a shepherd herds a flock.

I believe that the best, most effective way to fight ISIS would be for the US to stand down completely, and let Russia, Iran, the Syrian army and others handle it, unrestricted. We can be reasonably certain that Putin or Nasrallah won't be fighting ISIS one day and helping them the next.

It blows my mind, that at Peak Oil, when they should be diversifying their resources, KSA instead buys a crap-ton of weapons to waste in fruitless, pointless wars. A couple of generations hence, Saudis are going to ask what happened to all of that money, and they'll have to say that they blew it up, literally.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

dervish's picture

@native and get him over here, we could slowly assemble most of the crew that we had over there. Many are already here.

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"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

CB's picture

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