Irma Watch - Thread 2
Yesterday there was doubt that Irma could reach Cat 5. Today she has.
National Hurricane Center, Irma
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
...IRMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES
Update
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.
Also, Tropical Storm Jose has formed.
The environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite
conducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are
very warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant
mid-level moisture. By days four and five, however, the vertical
shear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to
its west. Thus the official intensity forecast show steady
intensification until day three, then remains flat through day
five.
Update
Wunderground
... Measurements from Hurricane Hunter aircraft found peak winds of close to 180 mph, well above the 157-mph threshold for Category 5 strength. At 11:07 am EDT, a dropsonde in Irma's eye measured a central pressure of 927 millibars, 4 mb lower than the previous pass, so Irma is still strengthening. ... Conditions were favorable for even more strengthening ... Irma is tied with Rita (2005) and Mitch (1998) as the fifth strongest hurricane in Atlantic records going back to 1851, based on maximum wind speed. Irma is the first Atlantic hurricane outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico known to attain 180-mph sustained surface winds. The lowest central pressure measured outside the Caribbean and Gulf was 919 mb in Hurricane Gloria (1985), versus Irma's most recent central pressure of 927 mb, but Irma could end up breaking this record as well. The highest winds of any Atlantic hurricane are 190 mph, set by Hurricane Allen (1980), and Irma may approach that record. For the next five days, wind shear, SSTs, and ocean heat content will remain very favorable for development ... we can expect Irma to cause extreme damage to any islands it makes a direct hit on. At this time, it appears that The Bahamas are at highest risk of receiving the most devastating wind and storm surge impacts from Irma, though the islands at the extreme northern end of the Lesser Antilles chain and the northern Virgin Islands may also receive direct hits.
...
Irma poses the most serious hurricane threat to northern Cuba and Florida since at least Hurricane Andrew (1992).
...
NHC's official 5-day forecast as of 11 am EDT brings Irma to the Florida Keys by Sunday morning. At this point, it appears the most likely course for Irma after its right-hand turn is to move northward near Florida’s west coast or up the western side of the peninsula from around Sunday into Monday.
...
while it is too soon to rule out other possibilities, Irma has a good chance of moving northward close enough to the Florida peninsula for significant impacts to large parts of the state, potentially devastating in some areas. Irma may be moving at 10 mph for a day or more after it makes its northward turn, which will prolong the period of high winds and heavy rains within its circulation. Even if it moves along Florida’s west coast, residents on the East Coast could still receive hurricane-force winds, significant storm surge, and torrential rains of 10 - 15” or more. Depending on Irma’s track, some areas could experience 8 hours or more of hurricane-force wind and 24 hours or more of tropical-storm-force wind.
Update
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES
Update
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 60.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHESA turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin tonight and continue for the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous
core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the
northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of
Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Update
800 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017
...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA PASSES OVER ST. MARTIN...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL POUNDING ANGUILLA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHESOn the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions
of the northern Virgin Islands today, pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or tonight, and pass near or just north of the coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday.
Irma continues as a Category 5 hurricane this morning, having
passed over Barbuda a few hours ago. Earlier data from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds near 155 kt
and that the central pressure had fallen to 914 mb inside the 25 n
mi wide eye.
The bulk of the guidance now calls for
Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The official
forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back
to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The
forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h.
Comments
Hang on, Folks,
this one Will Be rough.
Good luck to you all in the South East.
Stop These Fucking Wars
peace(someday?)
Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .
Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .
If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march
They are already talking about the cost of rebuilding,
but shouldn't they be talking about permanently relocating people from vulnerable areas? Things are just going to get worse from here on in, IMO.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"
Greetings from Orlando, Florida.
There's a bit of uncertain panic down here. But we've been through these before. It's just been a while since we've seen a storm this strong. Matthew grazed us and wasn't that big of a deal. This is different.
Everyone to a person is hoping that the sharp 90 degree northern turn at the tip of the peninsula that the European model has been showing doesn't happen. Because that would be the worst case scenario.
My roommate and I are prepared pretty well. Enough fresh water stored, generator w/fuel, food stored up. And of course a go-bag in my gassed up car if everything goes to total hell and we need to leave.
I'm worried about my relatives in Haiti--they've got enough problems and Irma shows up.
Good luck
and stay safe. Hopefully Irma has other plans than to drop by for a visit.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Water rising, winds increasing, records falling
As WoodsDweller posted, the NHC was reporting ...
Now, at 11 AM AST, it's worse ...
So, Irma was already ... the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records ... but now it's even stronger.
Harvey was so bad that the NHC had to revise its website rainfall categories, forced to add a new, higher level. I wonder what could be contributing to all these weather records falling...
...
Perhaps the Trump administration could look into it?
/s
They will get right on that
Trump’s Pick To Head NASA Doesn’t Believe Humans Cause Climate Change
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
The Administration has got its hands full
preparing for a few more wars, making oligarchs great again, and trying to bolster the morale of Houstonians. It's got no time to spend on outlandish fables like "climate change".
native
Greetings fellow Orlandoan.
My little krewe is getting ready. HTgawd, Irma reminds me of Andrew only bigger and meaner. Re: Haiti. Very good possibility that So. Fla. could get hit worse. I'm on WU and they have live feeds from St. Barts plus posts. The breeze is just starting to increase though skies are clear. Whew, glad I am NOT there! Rec'd!!@#3
Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.
I wish it would turn north
and remodel the White House.
/s
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Listen to the wind
It's whispering, Mar-a-Lago, Mar-a-Lago ....
Maybe it's not such a whisper.
Huge fire less than 10 miles from my house in Utah
6 structures destroyed, evacuations ordered after fire erupts in Weber Canyon
A grass fire started this morning close to the mouth of Weber canyon a few miles south of Ogden.
This area always has windy conditions because the winds get funneled down Weber Canyon. I could never understand why people built house in this area because it's always windy, but on some days, such as today, the winds are over 40 mph.
This fire started around 11am and the first time I read the article, only 1 house had burned. Now six houses have burned and the fire is 0% contained.
We have had severe unhealthy air for over 3 weeks or so and with this new fire it is much worse.
I posted photos of Missoula, MT in yesterday essay on 1 million acres burning in the US by Steven D. The smoke from those fires as well as the fires in CA, Idaho and elsewhere make their way into Utah and the air then gets trapped in the valley because of the mountains.
There has been a high pressure system parked over the west for almost two weeks that have led to record breaking temperatures.
This high pressure system was one of the reasons that Harvey stalled over Houston.
Almost 50 years ago in 1970, people gathered for the first Earth Day and were told that if we don't stop the corporations from polluting our planet, by 2050 there would be dire consequences. This time line was off by a few decades, but just since the start of this century, millions of species have gone extinct.
Besides a huge intervention by every country's leaders, plans must be made to make sure that the 5 million species that are on the critical list of going extinct must be saved.
Think of this as a new Noah's Ark.
The good news is that we don't have to deal with cubits anymore.
The message echoes from Gaza back to the US. “Starving people is fine.”
This one really worries me
I have a lot of family in the Tampa Bay area. They have evacuated in previous storms even when an evacuation was not ordered. But they stand to lose everything since they are located on the water. My husband's family is in Tallahassee and several are elderly. He and his brother are trying to relocate them to Atlanta because there is no way they will be able to endure a hurricane.
While Tallahassee is about 25 miles inland, it is still very vulnerable. We remember back in the 80's (maybe 1985) when hurricane ELena wiped out the entire electrical system of Tallahassee. Tallahassee is a Tree City USA and all the power lines are overhead. We went eight days without power, but some of our neighbors went almost two weeks. We did not have a generator, but luckily had camping equipment for lighting and cooking.
This hurricane (Irma) is a lot worse than any one I have seen in my lifetime.
I want to add one positive thing. After Andrew, the state of Florida really beefed up its emergency management systems and evacuation plans. This is very evident with the fact that they are already evacuating the Keys. Vulnerable areas like Pinellas County have plans based upon evacuation zones. They have already know how long it will take to evacuate the county and have a plan that does it well in advance. I hope other areas of the state are heeding these evacuations. It takes a LONG time to evacuate large numbers of people.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
I would be worried too, sustained @185mph & gusts @ 220mph
This makes it only 5 mph shy of of the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. At wind speeds like these very few structures can stand. Weather Underground has some interesting and very sobering technical commentary.
I'd be looking for a tornado shelter or packing the car for a quick escape the moment the evacuation orders are given. This is not a storm I would try to "ride out".
“The story around the world gives a silent testimony:
— The Beresovka mammoth, frozen in mud, with buttercups in his mouth…..”
The Adam and Eve Story, Chan Thomas 1963
Evacuations etc.
Even though Florida has fairly good organization for evacuating people, if I were in an evacuation zone, I would leave sooner than ordered. Pinellas county, where I grew up, is the most densely populated county in Florida. Estimated evacuation times for the beaches alone in Pinellas county is in excess of 60 hours.
From what I have read, forecasters are expecting the entire state of Florida to be greatly impacted by Irma. That includes those living in the central part of the state along the higher grounds of the spine. We just returned from visiting family in Florida, and saw some gas shortages on our way back north as a result of Harvey. Getting out is going to be difficult if gas shortages become widespread, especially in central and south Florida.
There has been a lot of short sightedness among budget hawks who have cut funding for emergency management, NOAA, and have failed to heed the warnings of climate change which is now upon us. Harvey and Texas have shown us just how devastating the effects of climate change can be upon us. Now we have Irma barreling down on us with potentially even more catastrophic results than Harvey. I would hate to see my home state be the poster child for what we can expect in the future as a result of our government's climate change denial, but I think that is exactly what we are facing now.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Thanks for this essay, WD! We just realized
this afternoon that a property of ours 'might be' in the path of this storm, if Irma's route takes her over the Panhandle.
Anyhoo, here's a blurb I posted at EB from Accuweather, about the projected path of Irma:
[My bolding, pointing out that the path of the eye could make a turn over the Panhandle.]
We're going to head up north, just in case. We've known folks who would refuse to leave their residence. 'To each, his own,' but, in our world, nothing material is worth defending with one's life.
Best of luck to folks who are in the storm's path--including those who are in the broader path of Irma facing torrential rain, flooding, and, potentially, tornadoes.
Grew up with hurricanes, experienced a tornado during our couple years in Oklahoma, and, of course, experienced several earthquakes during our many years in Alaska.
The closest we personally came to (tornado) disaster was when I took too long to get our two dogs situated in the central bathroom, before going to a neighbor's storm shelter [in Oklahoma]. As we left our home, we realized that our next door neighbor was by herself with a young child and an infant, so ran to help her. We were lucky suckers--the street was a rushing river, and the wind was so strong, we weren't sure at one point that we'd even make it directly across the street to the underground storm shelter [in our neighbor's back yard]. Mr M carried the little girl, and I tried to help her Mom with the baby, by bracing her against the wind.
When it was over, all of our homes were intact. But the neighbor with the shelter lost a couple of oak trees that were several hundred years old. Thankfully, they missed hitting his home, or any other possessions. Again, what really mattered--everyone and their children and/or pets were safe and sound. The damage was incredible, but the emergency system in southeast Oklahoma is so advanced, no lives were lost--nothing short of a miracle, considering the resulting (massive) damage in parts of the city and county.
Stay safe everyone!
Mollie
"If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went."--Will Rogers
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
I've read that Irma is equal to Hurricane Camille, which
hit a coastal property of my parents when I was a teenager. Luckily, no one was there (so, no injuries), and, they were insured, so they suffered no great financial loss.
Camille--I know, because I looked it up recently--was the second strongest Hurricane '5' to make landfall in the US. Winds were 175-195 MPH.
Years ago, traveling just off the causeway of Mobile Bay, we happened upon a handful of bricks, and the remnants of what was a huge Holiday Inn sign--all that was left after Hurricane Camille struck. I've been amazed over the years that this coastal property appears to have never been redeveloped. It definitely serves as a powerfully stark reminder of Hurricane Camille's destructive force.
We're getting the heck out of Dodge. We've only had one family member who decided, one time, not to evacuate. Later, he was emphatic that it would never, ever happen again!
Anyway, hope that Everyone makes it to higher ground, and takes safe haven.
Mollie
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
I have family in Naples, FL
Several days ago, I was telling them . . . "watch Irma!" Yesterday I was saying, "Get out now!" But they are staying.
Marilyn
"Make dirt, not war." eyo
Gas Shortages
The refinery shutdowns in Texas mean millions of gallons of gasoline were not pushed into the pipelines feeding the southeast and east coast. There would be spot shortages in any case, and everyone topping off their tanks (a prudent move) can make it that much worse.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone