Goldman Sachs: This is "as good as it gets"

I hope you are satisfied with the current state of the U.S. economy, because it'll get worse from here on.

"The current pace is probably as good as it gets because we expect the impulse from financial conditions to gradually turn more negative," Hatzius said.

If this is as good as it gets then we're in deep doo-doo.
In this so-called "booming economy", real average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent from a year earlier. What do you think will happen to wages when the recession hits?

Even more important, what do you think people will do when their shitty job goes away?
savings_0.png
Since 62% of people are very or somewhat comfortable with their level of emergency savings, including about one in five Americans with no emergency savings at all, this crappy savings rate isn't going to go up.
Put another way, 4 in 10 couldn't come up with $400 if their car needed major repairs, or someone broke an arm.
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All this lack of savings adds up to lack of any possible retirement.

A Boston College professor took to Politico on Thursday with advice for younger workers concerned about their future financial prospects: Millennials needn't worry about retirement, Alicia Munnell, 75, writes, as long as they "are willing and able to work longer than their parents and grandparents did."

retire.png
"Just work longer" is not just an insufficient answer, it also is increasingly impossible because people's health is deteriorating.

University of Michigan economists HwaJung Choi and Robert Schoeni used survey data to compare middle-age Americans’ health. A key measure is whether people have trouble with an “activity of daily living,” or ADL, such as walking across a room, dressing and bathing themselves, eating, or getting in or out of bed. The study showed the number of middle-age Americans with ADL limitations has jumped: 12.5 percent of Americans at the current retirement age of 66 had an ADL limitation in their late 50s, up from 8.8 percent for people with a retirement age of 65.

At the current retirement age of 66, a quarter of Americans age 58 to 60 rated themselves in “poor” or “fair” health. That’s up 2.6 points from the group who could retire with full benefits at 65, the Michigan researchers found.

Cognitive skills have also declined over time. For those with a retirement age of 66, 11 percent already had some kind of dementia or other cognitive decline at age 58 to 60, according to the study. That’s up from 9.5 percent of Americans just a few years older, with a retirement age between 65 and 66.

While death rates can be volatile from year to year, Choi and Schoeni’s study is part of a raft of other research showing the health of Americans deteriorating.

Why are American's health getting worse? Look no further than our privatized health care system.
A full 25% of people skipped needed medical treatment because they can't afford it.
Even without people losing their health insurance from losing their jobs, premiums and deductibles will keep people from getting needed health care.

Some states could see as much as a 90 percent increase in premiums between 2019 and 2021, the analysis indicated.

The thing to keep in mind is that all of these numbers are from now - as good as it gets.
What we are facing in the near future is a dramatic rise in unemployment, and yet another decline in wages.

Perhaps it’s a statistical blip. If not, the U.S. faces an almost dystopian future—one of hyper class-stratification in which the few are rich and living longer while the many postpone retirement, struggle to get by and ultimately die younger.

It's not "almost" dystopian. It IS dystopian.

What's more, the political establishment thinks you have it too good.
After enormous giveaways to defense contractors and the wealthy elite, the budget deficit has been pushed up to critical levels.
When the recession hits in the next year or two, that deficit will explode higher.
So who'll pay for it? The wealthy elite who have never been richer? Of course not.
You peasants will pay for it. After all, having a full belly and a roof over your head is indeed too much to ask.

The thing is that an empty belly has a way of getting someone to focus.
When everyone is hurting, blaming immigrants, Hollywood liberals, Russians, and the impoverished, white working class doesn't sound credible. The typical scapegoats don't make logical sense.
So more and more angry people will finally consider blaming the people who were responsible all along - the political and economic establishment.

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Jacob Freeze's picture

https://harpers.org/archive/2018/07/the-death-of-new-york-city-gentrific...

"The things we have lost will never be found again, and the new things we have received are literally empty and spiritually devoid of meaning."

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@Jacob Freeze
home affordability rates

The American dream continues to fade for many people. Housing affordability dropped this quarter to the lowest since late 2008, according to data released this month by the National Association of Realtors.

In May, the median price of a previously owned homes rose to a record $264,800, NAR data show.

A separate report from ATTOM Data Solutions shows average wage earners would need to spend 31.2 percent of income to buy a median-priced home this quarter -- above the historic average of 29.6 percent.

Home price appreciation, coupled with rising mortgage rates, have pushed three-quarters of average wage earners out of the market with property costs rising faster than wages in 64 percent of regions surveyed, ATTOM reported.

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Creosote.'s picture

@Jacob Freeze

of the city where I lived till 1973. While at a smaller scale my town in the PNW is bursting with pride in its explosive growth as it becomes "a place increasingly devoid of the idiosyncrasy, the complexity, the opportunity, and the roiling excitement that make a city great." Any future Dylan would never consider heading to NYC or here.

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8 users have voted.

@Creosote. R.I.P

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4 users have voted.

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17 users have voted.

A PROUD Hillary hater since 1993

edg's picture

@doh1304

There's far more of us for the rich to feed on.

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14 users have voted.
Deja's picture

@edg

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14 users have voted.

"The gatekeepers must change."
Prince

edg's picture

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6 users have voted.

@edg

the slow boil method, where the meat floats off the bone before most of us notice in time to object.

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4 users have voted.

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

detroitmechworks's picture

When
The circus cannot feed you,
the salesman cannot heal you,
the politician cannot lead you,
and the priest cannot appease you,

the cop can no longer oppress you.

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23 users have voted.

I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

@detroitmechworks
Do they win a prize for this?

REPORT: Deutsche Bank lost 12 times more than it thought was possible in one day of trading

Traders at Deutsche Bank's US unit suffered losses 12 times larger than its risk projections estimate could occur in one day.

News of the trading day, which happened earlier this year, was detailed on a May filing from the bank, Bloomberg reported.

"There's questions about what this was…. But all we know is there was this outsized day that was two, three, four times bigger than anything we've ever seen," reporter Sonali Basak, told Bloomberg TV, adding "It's very unusual."

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ggersh's picture

@gjohnsit Fed Finds All 35 Banks Will Be Fine If Stocks Crash by 65%, VIX Hits 60

According to the Fed's stress test, if stock prices drop 65% and VIX soars above 60, all 35 banks will be ok...

10321
JUN 21, 2018 4:37 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/

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13 users have voted.

The US markets will be closed tomorrow in honor of George H. W. Bush.

We should have a memorial day for the truth, which we have allowed to be led down the blind alley of our willful delusions, and strangled.

Lord have mercy on us.

dance you monster's picture

@gjohnsit

What delicate phrasing! Y'know, the only people who would call a massive financial loss "unusual" would be those whose own comfort is not endangered by it.

They need to be endangered. They need to feel what those on the bottom rungs know is danger.

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21 users have voted.
ggersh's picture

gatekeepers etc.etc. think they'll magically
escape the carnage

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

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20 users have voted.

The US markets will be closed tomorrow in honor of George H. W. Bush.

We should have a memorial day for the truth, which we have allowed to be led down the blind alley of our willful delusions, and strangled.

Lord have mercy on us.

@ggersh

And yet those at the top CEO's/Pol's gatekeepers etc.etc. think they'll magically escape the carnage ...

They're probably set up to profit from it; the money has to go somewhere, doesn't it? They don't call them disaster capitalists for nothing.

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4 users have voted.

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

thanatokephaloides's picture

Fox Business Report's typical right-wing view of the Federal debt is ridiculous in many ways.

Like all other nations which create and use their own fiat currency, the national debt includes the "M1" money supply. In other words, no debt == no money.

The demands for debt reduction are typical 0.1% bullshit, taking all money from us peasants to increase the power those possessing money to play with have over the rest of us. And all sectors of the Fox Lies empire speak for the 0.1% -- enthusiastically.

Bad

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18 users have voted.

"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

@thanatokephaloides However I doubt that as tRump is more blatant about what he is doing and won't see a need for a bogus panel to do the dirty deeds unlike the Democrats he will stab you in the front not the back.

All this reminds me of the 'deficit fever' under Obama and his 'Deficit Commission' more accurately called The Cat Food Commissions.The same guy that wouldn't let GWB's tax cuts which added trillions of dollars to the deficit, to just 'sunset' as scheduled. No debates no Republican nor Democrat votes needed just allow them to expire but Obama wouldn't let that happen and got over 80% of them made permanent and then later on he starts preaching about the deficit and creates those Cat Food Commissions.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

It occurs to me that "it's as good as it gets" means that things are as good as they get for Goldman Sachs and its ilk.

The Serf demand for a bigger slice of the wealth that is produced by them alone would not be good for Goldman Sachs and its ilk. The Serf demand for a real (i.e., other than Finance, Insurance and Real Estate or FIRE) economy in the USA would not be good for Goldman Sachs and its ilk. The Serf demand for a publicly regulated and taxed corporate securities market would not be good for Goldman Sachs and its ilk.

We need to make sure that it is this so-called "deterioration" of the economy that is visited upon Goldman Sachs and its ilk.

Diablo

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14 users have voted.

"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

snoopydawg's picture

or does the water need to get harder first? This is my question.

IMG_2279_5.JPG

sorry, I just love this:)

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Disclaimer: No Russian, living or dead, had anything to do with the posting of this proudly home-grown comment

thanatokephaloides's picture

@snoopydawg

Sessions would have taken Jesus away from his homeless refugee parents

To: Adonai Yahweh Elohim Hashem
Supreme Suite
Celestial Palace Complex
Heaven

From: Satan Baalzebub Asmodeus Demogorgon de Belial
Central Citadel Facility
666th level
Hell

My Lord:

I am writing to You in regards to one Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III, currently dis-serving humanity as the Attorney General of the United States of America in the Middle Realm of Earth.

I dread the day of his death, as I have no doubt whatsoever that You will visit his lack of Mercy upon him and thus he will come My way. I frankly have no berth foul enough to satisfy Your Justice with the karma I already know he's got coming! And many of the inhabitants I've already got are raising Hell, too. I can only handle so many of this ilk, and I've already got Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, Pol Pot, and many others like them to deal with.

And if you think my problems are bad with Jeff Sessions, consider what I'll be facing when Martin Shkreli dies! I don't think I can even get Sessions to berth with him!

I need You to grant me some new facilities down here, pronto. I mean You no offense or ill will, but it does appear that We both have seriously underestimated the capacity of human beings to deliberately choose evil over good. So I would appreciate it if You, the Creator, would Create for me an expansion of Hell. I desperately need the space!

Thank You for Your consideration!

Respectfully,
Satan de Belial

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18 users have voted.

"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

snoopydawg's picture

@thanatokephaloides

I'm sure that it's already quite full already, but with this current batch of miscreants it's going to get much fuller. I'm looking at you, Paul Ryan!

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14 users have voted.

Disclaimer: No Russian, living or dead, had anything to do with the posting of this proudly home-grown comment

thanatokephaloides's picture

@snoopydawg

I'm sure that it's already quite full already, but with this current batch of miscreants it's going to get much fuller. I'm looking at you, Paul Ryan!

Hell is known to be exothermic! (Proof at the link!)

Wink

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6 users have voted.

"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

@thanatokephaloides

up
1 user has voted.

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Mark from Queens's picture

@thanatokephaloides

One of Clemens's best, satirizing a defense of Rockefeller and his charities.

...there isn't a richman in your vast city who doesn't perjure himself every year before the tax board. They are all caked with perjury, many layers thick. Iron-clad, so to speak.
If there is one that isn't, I desire to acquire him for my museum, and will pay Dinosaur rates.

Every time I see Goldman Sachs, or any of the other Economic Terrorists, as underwriters of this or that philanthropic effort I wanna puke and get into a fit of rage.

I'll say it again, fuck philanthropy. If we just had fundamental socialism we wouldn't ever have to grovel for their blood money (see NPR, PBS, etc).

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15 users have voted.

"If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph:

THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD
WAS MUSIC"

- Kurt Vonnegut

thanatokephaloides's picture

@Mark from Queens

Every time I see Goldman Sachs, or any of the other Economic Terrorists, as underwriters of this or that philanthropic effort I wanna puke and get into a fit of rage.

I'll say it again, fuck philanthropy. If we just had fundamental socialism we wouldn't ever have to grovel for their blood money (see NPR, PBS, etc).

Especially in the cases you mention. The so-called "philanthropy" with NPR and PBS is really a very successful effort to make sure neither one gets tempted to obey its charter and engage in independent journalism!

Never forget that all wealth is created by labor (us!), and labor is entitled to everything it creates! The money used to buy control of "public" broadcasting is stolen.

I have nothing against genuine philanthropy. (Examples: St. Jude Children's Hospital in Memphis; National Jewish Health in Denver) However, the phony kinds make my blood boil.

One clue that a philanthropy is genuine: ordinary working-class people voluntarily take part in it. In Denver, PBS (KRMA, Channel 6) seems to be in some fundraising mode or other all the time. Meanwhile, ordinary working folks volunteer to give to National Jewish Health without even being asked to. (As I would myself, if I had money!)

And you're right: if we had basic democratic socialism in place`like all civilized nations do, there'd be no need or desire for these phony "philanthropies" which are really scams to keep the money of the monied producing power for them while incurring few or no taxes.

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9 users have voted.

"I say enough! If Israel wants to be the only superpower in the Middle East then they can put their own asses on the line and do it themselves. I want to continue to eat."
-- snoopydawg

dkmich's picture

@thanatokephaloides @thanatokephaloides

If Bill Gates, Zuckerberg, and the rest of the billionaires paid their fair share of taxes, they wouldn't have all that money to buy influence over things they know absolutely nothing about.

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3 users have voted.

"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

*donate to c99 *like us on Facebook *follow us on Twitter

@Mark from Queens @Mark from Queens

I needed those.

Edited to correct the actual number of giggles.

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2 users have voted.

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

@thanatokephaloides

You've just written a classic - unless this was a Wikileaks entry, perchance?

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3 users have voted.

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

Lenzabi's picture

Goldman sachs can die in a raging fire

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13 users have voted.

So long, and thanks for all the fish

The true greater evil. Time for Democratic Socialism and a return to the successful FDR way.

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12 users have voted.
dkmich's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

We are so far down the rat hole, nothing short of a public hanging of capitalists and their owned politicians will do.

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3 users have voted.

"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

*donate to c99 *like us on Facebook *follow us on Twitter

@dkmich

...We are so far down the rat hole, nothing short of a public hanging of capitalists and their owned politicians will do. ...

We could let the victims of Gitmo and other such torture-chambers decide.

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2 users have voted.

Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.