The Evening Blues - 9-6-16



eb1pt12


The daily news roundup + tonight's musical feature: Johnny Adams

Hey! Good Evening!

This evening's music features New Orleans r&b and blues singer Johnny Adams. Enjoy!

Johnny Adams Stand by Me / Body & Fender Man

"I don't see why we need to stand by and watch a country go communist due to the irresponsibility of its people. The issues are much too important for the Chilean voters to be left to decide for themselves."

-- Henry A. Kissinger


News and Opinion

Hillary Clinton Courts Henry Kissinger’s Endorsement Even After Meeting His Victims

Hillary Clinton's campaign has been seeking the endorsement of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, and their efforts may pay off, as there are reports that he is expected soon, alongside former Secretary of State George Schultz, to issue a joint endorsement of Clinton.

While those inside the national security community in Washington, D.C., may applaud the endorsement, Kissinger’s legacy of war crimes — from complicity in the 1973 coup in Chile to spearheading the saturation bombing of Indochina — has made him far less popular among human rights observers.

Clinton is well aware of that legacy. As secretary of state, she traveled to areas of the world that were devastated by policies Kissinger crafted and implemented.

The most relevant example is in 2012, when she visited Laos’s Cooperative Orthotic & Prosthetic Enterprise, a joint project between NGOs and the government of Laos dedicated to helping people with physical disabilities get prosthetic limbs and be rehabilitated. The project’s creation was prompted by the millions of submunitions littered across Laos, left over from the U.S. air war on the country during the conflict in Indochina.

The NSA’s British Base at the Heart of U.S. Targeted Killing

For years, journalists and researchers have speculated about what really goes on inside Menwith Hill, while human rights groups and some politicians have campaigned for more transparency about its activities. Yet the British government has steadfastly refused to comment, citing a longstanding policy not to discuss matters related to national security.

Now, however, top-secret documents obtained by The Intercept offer an unprecedented glimpse behind Menwith Hill’s razor wire fence. The files reveal for the first time how the NSA has used the British base to aid “a significant number of capture-kill operations” across the Middle East and North Africa, fueled by powerful eavesdropping technology that can harvest data from more than 300 million emails and phone calls a day.

Over the past decade, the documents show, the NSA has pioneered groundbreaking new spying programs at Menwith Hill to pinpoint the locations of suspected terrorists accessing the internet in remote parts of the world. The programs — with names such as GHOSTHUNTER and GHOSTWOLF — have provided support for conventional British and American military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. But they have also aided covert missions in countries where the U.S. has not declared war. NSA employees at Menwith Hill have collaborated on a project to help “eliminate” terrorism targets in Yemen, for example, where the U.S. has waged a controversial drone bombing campaign that has resulted in dozens of civilian deaths.

The disclosures about Menwith Hill raise new questions about the extent of British complicity in U.S. drone strikes and other so-called targeted killing missions, which may in some cases have violated international laws or constituted war crimes. Successive U.K. governments have publicly stated that all activities at the base are carried out with the “full knowledge and consent” of British officials.

Turkey: 30 PKK Fighters Killed in Airstrikes Against Northern Iraq

The Turkish military has issued a statement claiming a series of airstrikes against the Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq have killed at least 30 PKK fighters, including a number of unnamed “senior figures” in the group, just a day after fighting in the southeast of Turkey led to a number of PKK fighters crossing into Iraq.

The PKK, a secessionist movement active mostly in southeastern Turkey, has had a presence in northern Iraq for years, and that presence grew significant during the ceasefire of 2014-2015, as fighters were encouraged to withdraw across the border to facilitate peace talks.

When the Erdogan government withdrew from the ceasefire in summer of 2015, military operations spanned both sides of the border, though in many cases Kurdish civilians in northern Iraq say that villages the PKK has long since left are still being targeted.

ISIS Launches Flurry of Bombings Across Syria, Killing 53

Over the past couple of weeks, ISIS has found itself increasingly forgotten in Syria, with the focus on Turkey’s invasion, on Nusra’s fighting in Aleppo, and on Kurdish expansion around the Euphrates River. Today, ISIS looked to reassert themselves with a flurry of simultaneous attacks, killing at least 53 people according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. ...

The blasts targeted both the Syrian military and sites belonging to the Kurdish YPG. Notably, none of the attacks went after territory seized by Turkey and its allies, which over the weekend took materially ISIS’ entire border region between Syria and Turkey.

Fighting in Yemen Oil Region, At Least 26 Killed

Heavy fighting was reported today in the Maarib Province, due east of the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa, where pro-Saudi forces attempted to advance deeper into territory held by the Shi’ite Houthis. Saudi airstrikes were reported during the fighting. ...

Maarib is one of several fronts on which the pro-Saudi forces have attempted to advance to get a route opened that would allow them to attack the capital city, but as with other attempts around Taiz, the offensives have been very slow going, with a lot of give and take, and no easy victories.

Maarib is also considered valuable as the primary oil-producing region in Yemen, though in practice Yemen’s oil production is fairly minimal, and often interrupted by tribal unrest.

An interesting article, worth reading in full for the details, including the American Legion's fascist history and Joseph Stalin's coining of the phrase "American exceptionalism."

Hillary Clinton’s ‘Exceptionalist’ Warpath

Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who’s the most right-wing presidential candidate of all?

The answer used to be Donald Trump, famous for his naked bigotry toward Mexicans and Muslims. But that was before Hillary Clinton supporters took a page from the old Joe McCarthy handbook and began denouncing their Republican opponent as “an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation” or arguing that criticism of Clinton and NATO somehow emanates out of Moscow.

Now comes Clinton’s speech at an American Legion convention in Cincinnati, her most bellicose to date, in which she savages Trump for failing to embrace the ultra-imperialist doctrine of “American exceptionalism.” ...

It’s either American tutelage or Armageddon, in other words, which is why countries that are smart and sensible know better than to resist. To round out her pro-war package, Clinton also promised to respond to foreign cyberattacks with military means – perhaps sending out drones to bomb Wikileaks? – and promised to deal with the world’s bullies as well.

“I know that we can’t cozy up to dictators,” she said. “We have to stand up to them.”

All this from a woman whose family foundation has received up to $25 million from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, perhaps the most repressive government on earth, plus up to $50 million from other Persian Gulf sources. (The Saudis also donated $10-million to the construction of the Bill Clinton presidential library.)

G20 – moving towards a ceasefire for Syria?

US investigates if Russia may be trying to influence election

US intelligence officials are investigating the possibility that the Russian government is attempting to influence the US election, according to a new report.

Director of national intelligence James Clapper is leading an inquiry into whether and how Russian officials may be attempting to influence the election and “provide propaganda fodder to attack US democracy-building policies around the world”, the Washington Post reported on Monday,

Officials who spoke to the Post on condition of anonymity said there was no confirmation of any executed or planned attack, but according to one “even the hint of something impacting the security of our election system would be of significant concern”. He added: “It’s the key to our democracy, that people have confidence in the election system.” ...

The investigation comes just months after over 20,000 Democratic National Committee emails were released by WikiLeaks in a hack that has been linked to Russian intelligence. Reports suggest that US officials suspected Vladimir Putin’s administration was involved in the hack, but a senior Obama administration official told the Guardian in July that they could not “unequivocally” attribute the attack to a “Russian state actor”.

Not sure if serious: US suspect Moscow of meddling in election, admit no evidence at all

Obama Hypes US Cyberwar Capabilities, Warns Russia to ‘Act Responsibly’

Following a sideline meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Obama delivered a press conference centering on cyberwar, claiming that the United States has “more capacity than anybody, both offensively and defensively” in fighting such a war.

He demanded Russia “act responsibly” and warned against launching a “cyber arms race,” saying he didn’t want to see countries engaging in “unhealthy competition” on their capacities. While refusing to directly address the matter, it was clear these comments were related to Democratic Party allegations that Russia is attempting to hack the US election. ...

Intelligence officials have conceded that despite the investigation, there is no solid proof of any Russia hacking attempts on the election process, or even evidence that Russia might have any intent to do so. Obama’s comments, while not directly addressing this, clearly are intended to keep the matter in the public eye, as indeed it’s become a centerpiece of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign to accuse Trump’s candidacy of being a Russian plot.

France will tear down the Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp that houses 7,000

France is vowing to dismantle the temporary camp known as the 'Jungle' in Calais, where nearly 7,000 refugees, plagued by a food shortage, have been living while trying to cross into England. ...

Bernard Cazeneuve, French minister of the interior, said that the thousands of migrants at the camp would be give alternative housing elsewhere in France. According to the minister, more than 5,500 migrants had already been resettled from Calais.

The Calais refugee camp sits on the northern-most tip of France, just on the Strait of Dover. The port town has been a hub for migrants hoping to cross through the EuroTunnel to the United Kingdom, or to hop a ferry to take them across.

The French government, however, has long tried to keep migrants from setting up camp in the area. Repeated police raids have shut down the camp, but it has always reconstituted itself. ...

Quality of life for the migrants inside the camp, meanwhile, has deteriorated. Food is running scarce as donations have slowed in the two years since the migrant crisis exploded in France.

The Trump Supporter Running Hungary Is Building a Wall to Keep Muslims Out

Having successfully hogged the media spotlight for a day with his surprise trip to Mexico City this week, Donald Trump might now be scanning the globe for another foreign capital to visit. If so, don’t be surprised to see Trump Force One landing soon in Budapest, and being greeted warmly by Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban.

Twice in recent weeks, Orban has effectively endorsed Trump, praising the American’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, aimed particularly at Muslims, as in keeping with the Hungarian leader’s own efforts to seal his country’s southern border with a wall and to block the resettlement of Syrian refugees in order “to keep Europe Christian.”

Hungary is even holding a Brexit-inspired referendum on immigration policy next month, which will most likely give Orban’s government a mandate to reject the European Union’s plan to compel the country to accept about 1,200 refugees. And last week, as the Hungarian journalist Szabolcs Panyi noted, the prime minister announced plans to build “a more massive defense system” on Hungary’s border with Serbia to reinforce the tall fence erected last year to block migrants seeking refuge from war and poverty.

US Shows Support for New Brazilian Gov., But Did It Play a Role in Rousseff's Ouster?

Massive protests in Brazil end with tear gas, stun grenades, and water cannons

A massive demonstration to protest the ousting of Dilma Rousseff from the presidency of Brazil ended with clashes, tear gas, stun grenades, and water cannons.

Organizers claimed 50,000 Brazilians took to the streets of São Paolo on Sunday, four days after the senate voted to impeach Rousseff and swore in her former vice president, Michel Temer, to serve out the rest of her term.

The newspaper O Globo reported that the clashes began after military police blocked the progress of the march. The authorities also accused the marchers of destroying turnstiles at a subway station.

"The resistance and the taint of coup bothers the executioners of democracy," Rousseff tweeted on Friday, ahead of the weekend's protests. "The constitutional right to free expression must be respected."

President Temer, who was officially sworn in just hours after Rousseff was impeached on Wednesday, sought to downplay the tension, telling reporters that the protesters were "small groups" and that "in a population of 204 million Brazilians, they are not representative."

Indians Staged One of the Largest Strikes in History, But No One on U.S. Cable News Covered It

Ten Indian trade unions staged one of the largest strikes in human history on Friday, with tens of millions of public sector workers participating in a shutdown of parts of the Indian economy to protest Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s economic plans.

But if you’re an American relying on cable news, it would be hard to know it ever happened.

Not a single American cable news network ran a segment focused on India’s massive strike, even on Labor Day, the U.S.’s annual holiday dedicated to workers.

The strike came after Modi began a push for increased foreign investment and privatization of some state-run industries. Unions fear these policies will undermine both wages and employment.

The US Federal Reserve has created a 'false economy', Trump says

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who has previously accused the Federal Reserve of keeping interest rates low to help Barack Obama, said on Monday that the US central bank has created a “false economy” and that interest rates should change.

“They’re keeping the rates down so that everything else doesn’t go down,” Trump said in response to a reporter’s request to address a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September. “We have a very false economy,” he said.

“At some point the rates are going to have to change,” Trump, who was campaigning in Ohio on Monday, added. “The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market,” he said.

Does Wall Street Do “God’s Work”? Or Even Anything Useful?

In the wake of the 2008 crisis, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein famously told a reporter that bankers are “doing God’s work.” This is, of course, an important part of the Wall Street mantra: it’s standard operating procedure for bank executives to frequently and loudly proclaim that Wall Street is vital to the nation’s economy and performs socially valuable services by raising capital, providing liquidity to investors, and ensuring that securities are priced accurately so that money flows to where it will be most productive. ...

There’s just one problem: the Wall Street mantra isn’t true.

Let’s start with the notion that Wall Street helps companies raise capital. If we look at the numbers, it’s obvious that raising capital for companies is only a sideline for most banks, and a minor one at that. Corporations raise capital in the so-called “primary” markets where they sell newly-issued stocks and bonds to investors. However, the vast majority of bankers’ time and effort is devoted to (and most bank profits come from) dealing, trading, and advising investors in the so-called “secondary” market where investors buy and sell existing securities with each other. ...

So, what benefit does society get from all this secondary market trading, besides very rich and self-satisfied bankers like Blankfein? The bankers would tell you that we get “liquidity”–the ability for investors to sell their investments relatively quickly. The problem with this line of argument is that Wall Street is providing far more liquidity [...] than investors really need. Most of the money invested in stocks, bonds, and other securities comes from individuals who are saving for retirement, either by investing directly or through pension and mutual funds. These long-term investors don’t really need much liquidity, and they certainly don’t need a market where 165 percent of shares are bought and sold every year.

Finally, let’s turn to the claim that Wall Street trading helps allocate society’s resources more efficiently by ensuring securities are priced accurately. This argument is based on the notion of “price discovery”–the idea that the promise of speculative profits motivates traders to do research that uncovers socially useful information. ... The well-established fact that very few actively-managed mutual funds routinely outperform the market undermines the claim that most trading is driven by truly superior information. But even more significantly, the fact that a trader with superior information can move prices in the “correct” direction does not necessarily mean that society will benefit. ... Most Wall Street trading in stocks, bonds, and derivatives moves information into prices only days–sometimes only microseconds–before it would arrive anyway. No real resources are reallocated in such a short time span.

Happy Labor Day! There Has Never Been a Middle Class Without Strong Unions

The entire Republican Party and the ruling heights of the Democratic Party loathe unions. Yet they also claim they want to build a strong U.S. middle class.

This makes no sense. Wanting to build a middle class while hating unions is like wanting to build a house while hating hammers.

Sure, maybe hammers — like every tool humans have ever invented — aren’t 100 percent perfect. Maybe when you use a hammer you sometimes hit your thumb. But if you hate hammers and spend most of your time trying to destroy them, you’re never, ever going to build a house.

Likewise, no country on earth has ever created a strong middle class without strong unions. If you genuinely want the U.S. to have a strong middle class again, that means you want lots of people in lots of unions.

The bad news, of course, is that the U.S. is going in exactly the opposite direction. Union membership has collapsed in the past 40 years, falling from 24 percent to 11 percent. And even those numbers conceal the uglier reality that union membership is now 35 percent in the public sector but just 6.7 percent in the private sector. That private sector percentage is now lower than it’s been in over 100 years.



the horse race



Inside Bill Clinton’s nearly $18 million job as ‘honorary chancellor’ of a for-profit college

The guest list for a private State Department dinner on higher- education policy was taking shape when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton offered a suggestion.

In addition to recommending invitations for leaders from a community college and a church-funded institution, Clinton wanted a representative from a for-profit college company called Laureate International Universities, which, she explained in an email to her chief of staff that was released last year, was “the fastest growing college network in the world.”

There was another reason Clinton favored setting a seat aside for Laureate at the August 2009 event: The company was started by a businessman, Doug Becker, “who Bill likes a lot,” the secretary wrote, referring to her husband, the former president.

Nine months later, Laureate signed Bill Clinton to a lucrative deal as a consultant and “honorary chancellor,” paying him $17.6 million over five years until the contract ended in 2015 as Hillary Clinton launched her campaign for president.

There is no evidence that Laureate received special favors from the State Department in direct exchange for hiring Bill Clinton, but the Baltimore-based company had much to gain from an association with a globally connected ex-president and, indirectly, the United States’ chief diplomat. Being included at the 2009 dinner, shoulder to shoulder with leaders from internationally renowned universities for a discussion about the role of higher education in global diplomacy, provided an added level of credibility for the business as it pursued an aggressive expansion strategy overseas, occasionally tangling with foreign regulators.

Hillary Clinton told the FBI she didn't think drone strike plans were classified

Some of the classified information Hillary Clinton discussed in emails sent on her private server appears to have centered around planned drone strikes and attacks against US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan, according to 58 pages of documents released by the FBI Friday detailing the bureau's investigation into the Democratic presidential candidate's email practices.

"After reviewing an email dated [redacted], with subject line [redacted], Clinton stated she did not remember the email specifically. Clinton stated deliberation over a future drone strike did not give her cause for concern regarding classification," the FBI's memorandum said, suggesting that Clinton's responses to specific questions she was asked during a 3-hour interview at FBI headquarters July 2 centered around classified information contained in her emails about the Obama administration's targeted killing program. "Clinton understood this type of conversation as part of the routine deliberation process ... Clinton believed the classification level of future drone strikes depended on the context."

Donald Trump Once Wanted Third Parties in Presidential Debates, But Not Now

The three presidential debates and sole vice presidential debate will likely exclude third parties, and GOP nominee Donald Trump is just fine with that.

“I’d rather have head to head and right now they’re not getting any numbers,” Trump told The Washington Post in August, saying he wanted to debate Democrat Hillary Clinton and exclude the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson.

But when Trump himself was slated to be excluded from the debate stage, he had a different opinion.

In January of 2000, the Reform Party held a press conference that, among other things, discussed the exclusion of third-party candidates from the presidential debates. Then-Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura, one of the party’s few endorsed candidates to hold a major office, denounced the exclusion as “despicable.”

Ventura was joined by Trump, who was at the time was considering running for president on the Reform Party ticket.

“I agree 100 percent with Jesse. It’s disgraceful. It’s amazing that they can get away with it,” Trump said during that press conference in 2000.



the evening greens


Soaring ocean temperature is 'greatest hidden challenge of our generation'

The soaring temperature of the oceans is the “greatest hidden challenge of our generation” that is altering the make-up of marine species, shrinking fishing areas and starting to spread disease to humans, according to the most comprehensive analysis yet of ocean warming.

The oceans have already sucked up an enormous amount of heat due to escalating greenhouse gas emissions, affecting marine species from microbes to whales, according to an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) report involving the work of 80 scientists from a dozen countries.

The profound changes underway in the oceans are starting to impact people, the report states. “Due to a domino effect, key human sectors are at threat, especially fisheries, aquaculture, coastal risk management, health and coastal tourism.”

Dan Laffoley, IUCN marine adviser and one of the report’s lead authors, said: “What we are seeing now is running well ahead of what we can cope with. The overall outlook is pretty gloomy.

“We perhaps haven’t realised the gross effect we are having on the oceans, we don’t appreciate what they do for us. We are locking ourselves into a future where a lot of the poorer people in the world will miss out.”

New Investigation Names Wall Street Banks Behind $3.8 Billion Dakota Access Pipeline

Dakota Access Pipeline Company Attacks Protesters With Dogs and Mace

The ongoing Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) protests were hit with violence on Saturday, as private security forces reportedly hired by the pipeline builders descended on the Native American activists with pepper spray and dogs that bit and threatened the protesters.

Democracy Now!, which was on the ground at the time, posted several photographs and video of the attack.

In the video, security forces can be seen pushing the dogs to charge at protesters, while others raise cans of pepper spray at the crowds. One man shows a deep bite mark on his arm to the camera, stating, "I was walking, he threw the dog at me, straight, without any warning." A security guard on the scene shakes his head at the man, smiling.

Democracy Now! host Amy Goodman also separately confronts a woman on the security force, stating, "Ma'am, your dog just bit that protester. Are you telling the dogs to bite the protesters?" The woman refuses to answer.

The tense standoff ends as the security team eventually pulls their dogs away from the crowds and drives away.

According to Indigenous activist Martie Simmons, the ordeal saw six protectors, including one pregnant woman, attacked. The dogs also reportedly bit the guards that brought them in. Standing Rock Sioux tribe spokesperson Steve Sitting Bear also told the Associated Press that a young child had been bitten, and 30 people were pepper sprayed.

Tribal officials also said Saturday that construction crews destroyed Indigenous burial and cultural sites on private land in North Dakota.


Michigan Proposes Approval for Controversial Mine Near Sacred Tribal Sites

The State of Michigan on Friday announced its intention to approve, over tribal protests, an open pit mine near burial and other culturally important sites in the Upper Peninsula.

The mine would provide an economic boost to the region and metals such as gold, zinc, copper and silver that fuel our tech- and gadget-driven lifestyle. But would come at the expense of land and water that is central to the existence of the Menominee Tribe of Wisconsin. The decision comes as Native Americans across the country are unifying to buck the trend of development on off-reservation land.

The mine, dubbed the Back Forty, straddles the Michigan-Wisconsin border and has been in the works for more than a decade. The mine would cover about 83 acres near the headwaters of the Menominee River. The company seeking the mine permit, Canada-based Aquila Resources Inc., estimates the mine will yield 532,000 ounces of gold, 721 million pounds of zinc, 74 millions pounds of copper, 4.6 million ounces of silver and 21 million pounds of lead—metals crucial for cell phones, computers, cars and other modern-day conveniences.

But within the broader footprint of the mining site are burial grounds and former raised garden beds from the Menominee tribe, who used to live in the region before an 1856 treaty forced them onto their current reservation, 60 miles southwest of the proposed mine site. The mouth of the Menominee River is the center of their creation story.

In response to the state’s proposed approval, tribal chairwoman Joan Delabreau said the tribe was “sickened.”


Also of Interest

Here are some articles of interest, some which defied fair-use abstraction.

Why the Founder of Standing Rock Sioux Camp Can’t Forget the Whitestone Massacre

Dissecting the Propaganda on Syria

America: The Indispensable Nation…Not!

The Unrelenting Pundit-Led Effort to Delegitimize All Negative Reporting About Hillary Clinton

Let’s All Drive Putin Crazy, and Vote With Hand-Marked Paper Ballots, Counted by Hand in Public!

In Turkey, a Chechen Commander Makes Plans for War in Syria

'Prisoners of Europe': the everyday humiliation of refugees stuck in Greece

Don't worry! Clinton and Trump are going to fix Israel/Palestine

America and the Plague of ‘Moral Idiocy’

The Non-Nuclear Option

Database Reveals U.S. as Financial House of Horrors Since Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act


A Little Night Music

Johnny Adams - One Foot in the Blues

Johnny Adams - After All The Good Is Gone

Johnny Adams - I Won't Cry

Johnny Adams - There is Always one More Time

Johnny Adams with the Gondoliers - Nowhere To Go

Johnny Adams - Who's Gonna Love You

Johnny Adams - Up And Down World

Johnny Adams - Georgia Morning Dew

Johnny Adams - I Live My Whole Life at Night

Johnny Adams with George Porter Jr. - Lost Mind

Johnny Adams - Going to the City



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JekyllnHyde's picture

Thanks, joe.

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A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

joe shikspack's picture

thanks for the colorful graphic, have a great evening!

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Unfortunately Stein couldn't take advantage of it
polls_2.PNG

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joe shikspack's picture

i guess stein just has to figure out a way to get some attention from the public. it's an enormous hill to climb, but that's what the founders wanted (see federalist 10).

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JekyllnHyde's picture

From 538.com.

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

2. What’s the degree of uncertainty?

Higher than people might assume. Between the unusually early conventions and the late election — Nov. 8 is the latest possible date on which Election Day can occur — it’s a long campaign this year. But just as important, many voters — close to 20 percent — either say they’re undecided or that they plan to vote for third-party candidates. At a comparable point four years ago, only 5 to 10 percent of voters fell into those categories.

High numbers of undecided and third-party voters are associated with higher volatility and larger polling errors. Put another way, elections are harder to predict when fewer people have made up their minds. Because FiveThirtyEight’s models account for this property, we show a relatively wide range of possible outcomes, giving Trump better odds of winning than most other statistically based models, but also a significant chance of a Clinton landslide if those undecideds break in her favor.

And, from Politico.

Five reasons Hillary could be blowing it

Everybody who has ever worked for Hillary Clinton, covered her, supported her with clutched rosary and gnarled innards through the darkest days — or even watched her with educated interest from afar — knew this moment would come.
With two months to go before the presidential election, a major poll released this morning (CNN/ORC) revealed that the “prohibitive favorite” (Clinton) is down by two points nationally to one of the worst presidential candidates since the advent of the indoor flush toilet: Donald J. Trump.
Story Continued Below

Which just goes to show: No one — not the bullpen of the New York Mets, not the French army, not Wile E. Coyote, not even Al Gore — is better at squandering a commanding lead than the Queen of Coasting, Hillary Rodham Clinton. And nobody is better at handing her adversaries talking points to undermine trust, on emails, on the Clinton Foundation, on her own refusal to do something as simple as talking to the reporters who cover her every day.

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A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

snoopydawg's picture

2. Clinton made her campaign exclusively about Trump. Bad idea. One of the underlying realities of 2016 – a quotidian truth swept away by the tangerine tornado – is that Clinton is running for Barack Obama’s third term, and no Democrat since Harry S. Truman has succeeded when following a multi-term POTUS. The electorate is restless and wants change, and no candidate is less equipped by virtue of history, temperament or the tenor of the times to take advantage of that sentiment than Clinton. In fact, the only reason she commands a natural advantage (apart from her party’s innate grip on the Electoral College) is the fact that she is running against Mr. Unacceptable, and is marginally less detested.
It’s the obvious strategy to hammer Trump for everything he’s said – and the campaign has slashed at his jugular with mechanical consistency, producing a series of devastating ads intended to slay the GOP nominee with his own words. They have succeeded in pushing the Republican nominee off the popularity cliff (or at least nudged him as he jumped), trapping Trump below the critical 40 percent threshold in the vast majority of national and battleground state polls.
It’s not enough. It was telling that when Clinton did briefly emerge from her late-summer gilded hibernation, it was to attack, not to endear – delivering a blistering speech in Reno, Nevada that labeled her opponent a racist and xenophobe, a speech several of her top advisers thought was her best of the campaign. In the days that followed, the dial moved, but not in her direction.
The problem, and it has dogged Clinton since she first ran for office in 2000, is that she’s lousy at self-definition, doesn’t like to make the campaign about her (not one of Trump’s problems) and reveals herself only in jagged broken-mirror shards, not a portrait in full for voters to warm themselves by. Back in July, Clinton’s campaign manager Robby Mook told me he thought the only way people would get to know Clinton was to watch her govern. “I don't think people will fully appreciate who she is until, knock on wood, she's elected president, because when she is president, I think — I think she will be phenomenally successful because she's a workhorse,” he said

I saw many comments on TOP that said Hillary needs to keep attacking him about his not releasing his taxes.
I noticed that there wasn't a write up on her speech to veterans where she talks about how exceptional America is. Joe linked to it and I hope people read the whole article.

Nor was there a write up on this article if I can quote teacherken is a must read!
http://www.veteransnewsnow.com/2016/09/03/1008921the-neocon-in-the-oval-...

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

snoopydawg's picture

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

joe shikspack's picture

the clintonbots are so warped. they seem to think that people really deeply care about whether trump releases his taxes. of course, they also seem to think that mccarthyite smears are a big win for them.

the american people know that they are being screwed and they want it to stop. trump is smart enough to play to that. clinton isn't.

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joe shikspack's picture

not that they would ask, but i think that hillary is running the worst campaign since mike dukakis. if she loses the election, she'll have nobody to blame but herself. not that that will stop hillary or the hillbots from blaming everyone in sight.

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...on her own refusal to do something as simple as talking to the reporters who cover her every day.

Gaggle!

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WindDancer13's picture

Two days ago, HRC was at +3.4. Just prior to that +3.9.

An article that I read the other day, when it was at +3.9, stated that usually the person ahead on Labor Day went on to win in November...with two notable exceptions: Bush II and Reagan. Wasn't there some news about polls oversampling Democrats?

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass

Citizen Of Earth's picture

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Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.

joe shikspack's picture

i guess that you're just a stoner's throw away from the good times. Smile

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Citizen Of Earth's picture

I'm sure my bro will roll me a fattie. I'm betting my ant farm this will pass. Smile

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Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.

The Lawrence Welk version of One Toke Over the Line:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8tdmaEhMHE

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riverlover's picture

On Friday (9/4) I got mail from AT&T, my cell provider, announcing that my service would be terminated if I did not pay up by 9/4. Eh--long weekend screw them.

I ordered my bank to pay the bill (will be paid 9/8). My cell phone service is OFF. [I just checked now]

Unaware they had pulled the plug, I called the 800# provided and option 2 seemed to be a human. First I had to enter my ATT passcode by phone. WTF? Passcode? I will try again later to discuss "paying my bill" and ask for a paper bill which they have never sent me in 8 months. Not that I have not been paying by finding my bill, billing date seems to be variable. So I cannot talk to my phone company by phone, it would be funny but there is so much like this now... But no email of bill, no paper bill, what are they thinking???

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

joe shikspack's picture

at+t is a pretty funny bunch. they seem to think that i am one of their customers (though i haven't been for decades) and they keep inundating my poor mailbox with junk mail solicitations to add features and services available because (they think) i'm an at+t customer.

i think that i'm going to heat my house with junk mail this winter.

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snoopydawg's picture

“I know that we can’t cozy up to dictators,” she said. “We have to stand up to them.”

Except for the ones that the US installs after overthrowing elected governments that won't let US corporations steal their resources.
Didn't the US allow Papa and Baby Doc kill, torture and murder their citizens and when Baby Doc was finally deposed, they let him keep the billions he stole and let him run for president again without arresting him.
I'm pretty sure that Hillary was secretary of state during that time when he came back to Haiti. I like the way she stood up to him.
This is even funnier, but what's sad about it is that so many Americans believe this.

“When we say America is exceptional, it doesn’t mean that people from other places don’t feel deep national pride, just like we do. It means that we recognize America’s unique and unparalleled ability to be a force for peace and progress, a champion for freedom and opportunity. Our power comes with a responsibility to lead, humbly, thoughtfully, and with a fierce commitment to our values. Because, when America fails to lead, we leave a vacuum that either causes chaos or other countries or networks rush in to fill the void.”

America's so called lead in the Middle East and left a vacuum that caused both chaos and 'networks' rushing in to fill the void.

Clinton’s Cincinnati speech referred to U.S. troops reductions in the Middle East: “We have redeployed well over 100,000 troops from Iraq and Afghanistan so they can go home, rest, and train for future contingencies.”
What might those contingencies be? Another round of intervention in Syria is the likeliest, although neocons no doubt have their eyes on other targets as well: the eastern Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics, and the Pacific as well. The more Clinton’s election prospects brighten, the bolder the neocons’ ambitions will grow.

God help the human race if she gets back in the WH!

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

lotlizard's picture

Not satisfied with making Orwell’s “1984” reality, the Deep State now seems to be working on the science-fiction classic A Canticle for Leibowitz.

http://www.public.wsu.edu/~brians/science_fiction/canticle.html

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Gerrit's picture

as always, but you frame it well. We'll keep the brave Dakota folks in thought and prayer. It makes my blood boil to read about the violence perpetrated on the valiant protestors. Folks, donate if you can and stand with them where you can. Here in Canada, we support Idle No More as they fight the dogdamned pipelines here.

Cheers mate,

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

joe shikspack's picture

the news always sucks, but i'm addicted to knowing what the hell is going on.

i suspect that this pipeline action is far from over. the court is due to decide on an injunction against further construction this week (i think by the 9th) but the big money behind this is not going to back off, i'm pretty sure.

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Crider's picture

Hi folks. I just saw this here.

Authorities plan to bring charges against Green Party president candidate Jill Stein after she joined protesters of the Dakota Access Pipeline in spray painting graffiti on equipment at a construction site Tuesday.

Morton County Sheriff Kyle Kirchmeier said his office is working up information through the state's attorney to pursue charges of trespassing and vandalism against Stein after video of her spray painting the blade of a bulldozer was posted online.

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Gerrit's picture

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Resilience: practical action to improve things we can control.
3D+: developing language for postmodern spirituality.

joe shikspack's picture

oh my, that jill stein, what a badass! Smile

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Crider's picture

At least so far.

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WindDancer13's picture

from the guy who is testing out his comedy routine:

He [anonymous intelligence official] added: “It’s the key to our democracy, that people have confidence in the election system.”

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass

joe shikspack's picture

where were these guys during the brooks brothers riot? or when the supreme court made sure that only 9 votes out of millions counted?

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Wink's picture

the audio clip of Her Highness attempting to open a speech somewhere recently? Not sure if it was last night or the night before, or maybe earlier, but when HRC opened with, "I'd like to thank congress critter so-and-so for inviting us... " that intro was nearly immediately followed by a steady one solid minute (or more) of coughing and hacking. What was weird was nobody stepped to the podium, say, after 10, 15 seconds, to allow her to step aside for a moment to grab a sip of water and regroup. It was literally one solid minute of coughing and hacking, and seemed longer. Imagine standing at the podium for what must've seemed like forever, barely able to grab a breath of air only to continue coughing and hacking.
I don't know if it was one of el Rushbo's hack jobs, but if it wasn't somebody needed to step up and allow HRC to regroup. Funny, during that one min. of coughing there were cheers of USA! USA! Just weird.

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

joe shikspack's picture

i dunno. i can't bear to hear flush rimshot's voice, so i never listen to anything he does if i can physically avoid it. i heard that clinton had a coughing fit, but don't know how long it lasted.

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Wink's picture

disturbing I couldn't listen anymore, flipped it to the sports talk station. Amazing no one came to her aid, which leads me to believe el Rushbo may have "doctored" it.

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

Unabashed Liberal's picture

to say 'hi,' and thanks for tonight's excellent rendition of News & Blues.

I had planned to post an interesting 'dog story,' but after a very hectic 10-12 days of visiting with Family, and taking care of my Brother's business matters, I'm trying to fend off a summer cold--so, think I'll take a pass this evening.

I enjoyed your essay very much, Joe--I was replying to it when the site went down yesterday. My main suggestion would be to leave all current (or former) lawmakers out of a People's Movement--at least, those who are still strongly affiliated with the two major legacy Parties.

Obviously, those folks so inclined can still work with Bernie in his new organization--if they desire to work within the system/Dem Party.

But, as for me, I agree with the biblical scripture, "You can't serve two masters."

I pretty much think there's quite a bit of truth in that axiom, and that this is what makes it near impossible to make headway with a social movement that has a politician leading the way--even if they are very well-intended--which I believe that Bernie was.

Wink

(Again, that's my 2 cents--others mileage might vary.)

Anyhoo, we're trying to recharge our batteries, so that by time the Lame Duck Congress convenes, we'll have the energy to once again fight for our pet issues--Social Security, etc.

A major heat wave is projected to be headed our way by the end of the week, so we're trying to get a few outdoor chores completed, pronto.

Hey, Everyone have a nice evening--and stay cool!

Bye

Mollie


“I believe in the redemptive powers of a dog’s love. It is in recognition of each dog’s potential to lift the human spirit, and, therefore, to change society for the better, that I fight to make sure every street dog has its day.”
--Stasha Wong, Secretary, Save Our Street Dogs (SOSD)

National Mill Dog Rescue (NMDR) - Dogs Available For Adoption

Misty May - NMDR

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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.

joe shikspack's picture

heh, if the our revolution people want to pursue (what i consider to be a futile effort) to work within the system, that's fine with me. there are items on their political agenda that i agree with them on, so when they want to get out in the streets and demand single-payer health care for example, then perhaps we can work together. if they want my time or money to work the system, um, well, not a chance.

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Unabashed Liberal's picture

that I wanted to 'exclude' folks who participate in OR--or any activist organization--from participating in a broad-based grass roots progressive 'People's Movement.'

Just that I'd like to see the formation of a 'People's Movement' which is not 'led by' a politician (no matter how well meaning). Sorry, gotta be more careful with the ol' syntax!

Biggrin

Mollie


“I believe in the redemptive powers of a dog’s love. It is in recognition of each dog’s potential to lift the human spirit, and, therefore, to change society for the better, that I fight to make sure every street dog has its day.”
--Stasha Wong, Secretary, Save Our Street Dogs (SOSD)

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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.

joe shikspack's picture

not to worry, i was pretty sure that was where you were coming from without the clarification.

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