Does this make any sense?
Submitted by gjohnsit on Sat, 02/29/2020 - 3:55pm
So Biden is surging in the polls.
Why?
What has happened to cause this surge?
The man who is running on 'electability' got crushed in Nevada.
This comes after underperforming the polls in Iowa and N.H.
Why would any of this cause a surge in approval?
It makes no sense.
That's why I think Biden will underperform the polls again, and will be lucky if he wins by a slim margin.
Comments
For $11 million without
local or national name recognition, no ground game, no institutional support, and a conflicting and weak message, Steyer came in third with over 11% in a state high in machine politics. So, I'd say that money at the wholesale level still works. (Bloomberg is counting on it working much better in states with more diverse populations and much weaker political machines.)
As already noted, we don't know the Pac and SuperPac spending. Not just on ads, but also contributions to the state and local DPs and donations to churches could also be a factor. Wouldn't rule out slipping big wads of cash into the right pockets either.
but not so reassuring
Well, the ill-advised and poorly-counseled voters of SC had their few days in the spotlight and have themselves their Biden, but let's hope the voters in the major states on SupTues simply ignore it, as Dem candidates will ignore the state for the remainder of the year, and get things back on track.
The young didn't show up.
According to exit polls 29% 45 and younger voted. 71% 45 and older voted.
When the young show up, Bernie wins. What was so important they didn't show up?
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Then who did?
The young did show up in '16 and the total votes counted were 368 thousand. The current total tally is over 420 thousand. Are the olds in SC cloning themselves?
Why don't you
go take a look at the data and find out if you're interested.
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
Very important question
Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl
Bullshit!
(eom)
This shit is bananas.
My despise for Warren is epic
.
Good grief we dodged the bullet with Warren when she refused to run last time because we are seeing who she really is. She says that she is staying in past Tuesday so she can derail Bernie. This shows that she had no intention of keeping her campaign promises. If she really wants for us to have nice things then she'd get behind Bernie and help him win so we can.
"#%%#^*£¥€, Liz!"
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Voting is like driving with a toy steering wheel.
For those too young to have seen
or heard, in 1974 MA drivers slapped "Don't blame me, I'm from Massachusetts" bumper stickers on their cars.
If today's MA Democrats can reach back to their 1972 roots, they would deliver a stunning defeat to Warren on Tuesday and a 50+% win for Sanders. Warren and all the others failing to reach 15%
Krystal Ball doesn't minse words.
All I want is the truth. Just give me some truth. John Lennon
R'men
Anyone who can't see what Warren is doing is not being honest with themselves because it's obvious her only role now is to keep Bernie from winning. But then wasn't that why democrats threw so many people into the race in the first place?
Some media squirrels are saying that she is the unity candidate, but how she is supposed to be that when she isn't even doing well? But it looks like the race is still wide open, but I don't trust the results. Too many things keep happening that is keeping people from voting. I haven't seen any coverage of places being shut down outside a few tweets.
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Voting is like driving with a toy steering wheel.
I don't believe it for a minute.
Unity candidate, bwahahahaha! When she keeps snubbing Bernie, yeah right.
This shit is bananas.
Get a load of this
Apparently this is about the virus and Trump's mishandling of it. Read it at the source.
For those who can't watch the video she says "Get In This Fight 5-6 times and then says this is our moment in history....blah blah...
Of course the crowd went wild! Ick.
But yeah I don't buy that every one went for Biden. Hell even Hillary didn't win that big. Can you say rigged? I thought you could.
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Voting is like driving with a toy steering wheel.
Hillary won every SC county in '16
and by much larger margins that Biden. Biden did get almost as many votes as Clinton, but total votes were up by 160,xxx this time around.
No retracting her claws after this.
(Bernie was cheated left and right in '16, and he always maintained his cool and never attacked Clinton.)
Whatever makes her think that a Biden or Bloomberg nominee would choose her for VP? Or maybe she got suckered into being the attack dog and a promise of a reward later which she took to mean VP. Either way, her inexperience and lack of political instincts are on display, and combined with her two previous attacks on Sanders, she's made herself look small, mean, and petty. Nothing is gained and much can be lost by being a bad loser -- and she's much too old not to have learned that long ago.
btw Liz, Amy is much higher on Bisden't short list than you are.
People are not liking what they are seeing from her
I'm seeing people saying that they once supported her, but ever since she turned on Bernie they are disgusted and disappointed with her. She really has gotten bad advice on how to run and I'm also seeing people saying she should be primaried. I'd be surprised if she wins her seat again. I hope not.
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Voting is like driving with a toy steering wheel.
What kind of person would
act on advice to turn on a colleague that had always been generous and kind to that person?
Whatever her actual strategy for the campaign was -- my guess half of Bernie's and half of Clinton's '16 support -- it didn't work. She only got half of Bernie's support -- the half that was softer and more easily conned, and it has hobbled him, and a smidgen of Clinton's. Now she's pissed because Bernie didn't hand her the balance of his support to her. If she wanted to run as Hillary 8.0 (the real Hillary used up 1.0 through 7.0), the woman, that's what she should have done.
The one with an earned right to be angry is Bernie, but he's too mature and experienced to go there publicly.
I think you are 100% right
I know I disparage Warren a lot here. I think it’s because I was duped for a while and I now see her as more of a wolf in sheep’s clothing than a force for any good. I think she’s running to win a brokered convention at this point and every day she gets more blatant about being a spoiler for Bernie. The only bright spot in my mind is, I don’t think TPTB are going to reward her loyalty in the way she’s expecting, if they do at all.
Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.
Can't say that I was ever duped
by Warren. Professionally she did have expertise and interest in equal protection in bankruptcy which doesn't exist in the country. The great recession widened the public interest "her thing" which happened to be absent in the WH and Congress. "Occupy" added to the mix of why she should be listened to.
Perhaps the empathy for working class people getting financially screwed by the banks and in bankruptcy that she displayed before the recession was less authentic than it appeared and was more PR to sell her book and by extension herself. What I didn't know then or even years after she was elevated to a political role was that she'd long been a Republican. Still don't know when she made that personal shift to the DP. Had I been aware of that, it would have been easier to detect that in her words and acts over the years. She's much like Hillary Clinton, a circa 1970 liberal female Republican.
Since 2009 I've viewed her as a decent person with a lot of depth in one area of public policy and no breadth. She's usually shaky outside "her thing" which leads to the appearance of flip-flopping. In her case it's more like having to act/speak on the fly without liberal/progressive core principles and insufficient time to think it through. I cut her a lot of slack because she doesn't have natural political instincts and hasn't been politically active long enough to develop them, but from early on it was apparent to me that that she was too inconsistent to be a solid liberal/progressive, but most Democratic politicians aren't even liberal/progressive.
One thing I blew off -- and iirc it first surfaced in her 2012 Senate campaign -- was "Pocohontas." The facts on this issue surfaced very slowly over the years and having originally dismissed it, I didn't pay attention to it. Now, however, it's very telling. It's one thing for a naive and/or not so educated person to casually claim NA ancestry. Plenty of people do that and it's of no import. However, even they know or have learned not to put the claim on official documents because even if the NA ancestry is true, they don't possess enough to qualify for the claim. White people in OK and a few other states might know this better than the general public. As an attorney, Warren should have known better than others not to make such a formal claim based on vague family lore, and not just once but repeatedly over many years.
Like all too many politicians, she embellishes and lies about herself and life to gain greater acceptance or respect. Like Biden's SA claim and all too many bogus claims Hillary as made. Warren wasn't fired from a public school teaching job for being pregnant, and she references her public school teaching job way too often when she only held it for for about a year. These are character issues.
This is a really good personal analysis
You cast the net far and wide enough to challenge most folks to question their own judgement in this matter. Like you, I blew off the Pocahontas issue. The Right was so obsessed with it that they looked deranged — or they were being orchestrated. That meant that Bankers and Wall Street were so threatened by Consumer Protections they would stick their necks out to crush it. And that meant that asset-stripping the American people was part of their business plan. This threatened the people's survival in an increasingly financialized world, so concerns about Pocahontas appeared trivial. Warren was taking a stand that no one else would take. By comparison, Biden had worked against consumers for his entire career.
How much of this can be blamed on established corruption and how much can be blamed on character flaws?
Warren became a bridge too far for me during the 2016 Convention. Warren's public pandering to Clinton was nauseating. The entire convention was a perversion, but Warren struck me as uniquely obscene. I don't often mention her in the 2020 line-up because her political destiny had already collapsed. The fact that she is still in the race is an entirely artificial construct. Money has come in to create a bandwagon for her political corpse to ride on. The less astute can vote for this thing, but it cannot be revived.
Elizabeth Warren is one of many artificial constructs that the Party will employ along the way to replace Bernie Sanders with their preferred Centrist. Dementia is a plus in US politics, if it comes to that. Make no mistake, he will be replaced.
While the Voter preference Primaries have no meaning, legally, and the Party is free to pick anyone they wish to be the nominee — they will try hard to alter the election outcome to match their pick and avoid blowback. They will rig a few elections along the way. Find a list of primary states without back-up paper ballots and you will know exactly where that will occur. The company that conducts exit polls will erase anomalies and match the vote counts, just as they do in all US elections.
Caucus states are more difficult. They had to build an app that would deliberately fail, in order to null Iowa's returns in 2020, because the winner of Iowa is always the Democratic nominee. (Something to keep in mind.) Nevada was supposed to use the app, as well, after some "retraining." But they didn't, and that was a glitch.
Forcing a contested election under the current Party rules will work out fine for the Democrats, if they are certain their preferred Centrist will win on the first ballot. If not, they will change the rules and include Super-Delegates. Thus, the nominee will not the People's choice, and the Democrat's preferred candidate will again lose to Donald Trump in 2020.
I think it is clear to everyone that the Democratic Party would prefer Donald Trump over Bernie Sanders. That's is certainly the Oligarch preference.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Yoiu've taken a bit further than I diid
and agree with what you've said. Warren't refusal to endorse during the primary should have been confirmation as to the real Warren or a rad flag for those enamored by her. She owed the national DP and Clinton nothing. They objected to her running against Scott Brown in '12; they were in fact fine with Brown. It was longing by leftist liberals for a liberal in that seat that began the draft Warren effort. She didn't have to do more than sound liberalish to get their support and welcome support from Sanders and a few others.
As there's little cost for an elected official to support a primary candidate that loses (many supported Clinton in '08), why did she not endorse in line with those that had put her in office? Opting instead to play coy and only endorsing after the June primaries? Continue to hide her true colors and continue her post-2012 election positioning as in-between her original supporters and the neoliberalcons. Voters need to get much smarter in reacting to politicians that shift from where they said they were during an election and where they plop down after in office. Obama began revealing himself before he took office and by June 2009 I was done with him, but also recognized that he would be reelected in 2012 and his 2008 staunch supporters would never move away from their hope on election day 2008; they were blinded by their love.
Very good nuance on this
I entirely agree with this more complex view.
Again, I did miss some of the flags you mention. With better focus, they would have been clear at the time, I think.
Ugh. It's dreadful this wasn't analyzed thoroughly. I know it was visible at the time but her ambitions were unclear.
I wonder if that happened before as dramatically as it did with Obama. There was a great deal of confusion, and everyone pretended he was playing a long game beyond their understanding. It was their first experience with retail bait and switch, perhaps.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Bait and switch
Oh, sure. Often chalked up to something in the water in DC.
However, I think it did become more prevalent after 1974. From '32-'74 New Dealers stayed New Dealers and that was one thing voters wanted and counted on. By the standards of today, Richard Nixon was more of a New Dealer than any president after Carter, but for Nixon it was more a matter of the times. Although Carter did initiate deregulation within the DP.
Drives me nuts that most Democrats still refuse to honestly evaluate Clinton. GHW Bush had three things on his "to do" list: NAFTA, capital gains tax cuts, and a flag burning amendment. The Democratic congress (still with a majority of New Deal Democrats in it) was correctly having none of that. NH primary voting Democrats squandered their duty to carefully consider the candidates by wasting their time and votes on a neo-liberal, two-term House with major health issues and a long-term governor from a small, poor, southern state. Ignore a well qualified, competent, and personally decent candidate. They were blinded by a deep longing for a Democratic president and the bs narrative that only a southern Democrat could win the WH -- based on a single instance and he only lasted one term.
(And Nafta and the cap gains tax cuts were the least of the damage Clinton did.)
Likely also became more prevalent as the MSM became less informative (in part because it was allowed to shift from a loss leader to a profit center and crap sell better than information) and industrial unions continued to decline. People have no easy and ready access to the information they need. Twenty years on there are very few real reporters in alternative media (a sustainable funding model is elusive) and social media is crap, an time wasting alternative to mindless TV programming. Individual citizens just can't keep up with the armies of lobbyists running Congress.
I see three possibilities:
A. Her advisors advised her to be ugly, because they're incompetent; and she witlessly followed their advice, because, you know, they're the experts.
B. Her advisors advised her to restrain herself, and she ignored them.
C. Her advisors neglected to advise her at all on the matter, because they're incompetent; and she just went with how she was feeling.
I think the most likely choice is "C" in the case of stuff like refusing to shake hands.
However, "C" can't be in play for anything that's a formal statement. So it's gotta be A or B. And, primed by my general contempt for the consultoriat, I'm going with A.
Regardless, none of A, B or C reflect very well on the candidate herself.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
The new Delegate Count
Well, the wall being well graffitied and all, we are nonetheless
left with one question for hapless speculation.
Currently, with 98% of precincts reporting, they've counted 520,000 votes. That's a lot of votes! Like .. more than 30% more than the most votes they've every recorded in a Democratic Primary. I don't see any other reasonable conclusion but that a lot of Republicanish types decided to get their butts down there for this. A lot. And the question is, who the hell did they vote for and why?
I expect most folks around here will fall on the side of "ratfucking" -- these crossover voters did so just to create chaos in the Dem primary, or maybe to help Biden because they think he's less likely to beat Trump than Sanders is, or something.
Personally I doubt it. I mean, I'm sure that different voters will have had different motivations, but my guess is that the majority of GOPish folk who voted tonight voted for Biden, because they think Trump is likely to lose either way, and if they're going to be stuck with a Dem President, they'd rather have a conservative dick like Biden in the office.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
Uh, in 2008
530,xxx voted in the SC Democratic primary. Republicans had their own "hot" primary; so, they weren't a factor in the Democratic primary.
We were told that young people showed in unusually high numbers in '08.
In '16 turnout was only 368,xxx. Sanders only garnered a disappointing 96,xxx. We were told that young people didn't vote.
At this point the count is 527,xxx. (Only one county isn't reporting 100% of precincts, but it's almost there.) Grinding though the county level numbers should reveal if Republicans played a role in any significant numbers.
hmm, sorry, weird, i'd thought i'd seen someone quoting
a number closer to 400K for 2008. but then, my mind isn't what it used to be, and i'm still not used to needing to recheck every damned thing that i think i remember, before putting it out there in the world.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
90% of the time I check myself,
because I don't want to mislead others, and I still flub some of the time when I don't check and I always get called on those.
Yes, well, as I mentioned it's a new phenomenon for me.
And very disconcerting.
What a drag it is, getting old.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
MSNBC called it the instant the polls closed...
Why? because corporate money backs Biden and Mayor Pete and all the others.
"The enemy is anybody who is going to get you killed, no matter which side he's on." Yossarian
Can you imagine that the German magazine Der Spiegel titled
a Biden victory article with the headline "Southern Comfort"?
That's the ice on the cake of my discomfort.
What a cake. Hope the carrots of that cake will get stuck in the author's trachea.
redacted - double entry/nt
Why do these two stories remind me of the US election cycle?
[video:https://youtu.be/lPrOFbCFs44]
and the French have the solution for you, of course:
Which Lame Duck Quacks the Loudest (my title) - Ducks in a row: French farmer wins dispute over quacking (real title) .
Ducking...
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