The 2017 Assembly election held last week resulted in the end of the Unionist majority in Northern Ireland. From here Unionism will continue to wither away as their predominantly older voters die and are replaced by predominantly younger Nationalist voters. The final leg of the journey to re-unification has begun with the impacts of a hard Brexit a border poll for re-unification will be held and won within five years.

Where Does Northern Ireland Come From?

Northern Ireland came about during the Home Rule struggle begun in the 1860s. In the 1868 election the Liberals had 85 seats, Conservatives 53 in Ireland with 150k voting out of a population of 4million. In 1874 Home Rule 60 seats, Conservatives 31 and Liberals 10 (225k voting). In the 1885 election it was Irish Parliamentary Party 85, Conservatives 15 (450k voting). 1910 it is 83 Nationalist, 20 Unionist, 200k voting, population 4 million. 1918 it is 83 Nationalist, 22 Unionist, 1 million voting.

The first Home Rule bill to grant Ireland a regional assembly with less powers than Scotland currently has, was attempted by Gladstone in 1886. It was defeated in the House of Commons. The second in 1893 was defeated in the House of Lords. The third Home Rule bill of 1912-1914 only passed because the power of veto of the House of Lords had finally been removed. The bill passed the House of Commons, was defeated several times in the House of Lords, then passed into law and was then suspended for the duration of WWI.

Winston Churchill's father Earl Randolph Churchill whipped up Orange/Unionist sentiment in the north of Ireland during the Home Rule period for the same reason John Major stymied the 1994 IRA ceasefire - the Conservatives could become or retain a majority with Unionist MPs. As home rule became inevitable, Unionism retreated into partition, a homeland with an artificially constructed majority. Essentially an apartheid state until it exploded in the 1960s.

From GFA to Today

Good Friday Agreement brought an end to the Troubles. It was followed by another 8 years of sniping by the DUP until Paisley has a near death health experience and we get the 2006 St Andrews Agreement. Power sharing is established, Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness become "the Chuckle Brothers". This pisses off the DUP base, turns them against Paisley, he is forced out and Peter "Swish Family" Robinson succeeds him. Both Robinsons are MPs, MLAs and employ their family in the various constituency offices. The Dodds were the same. Alas, the gravy train all crashed when Irisgate exposed how the whole sordid practice to the light of the public's gaze.

After Paisley's head the DUP base have demanded a steady diet of red meat, or jamming their thumb in the eye of Nationalists as often as possible. The Maze development cancelled (and how it was cancelled), no Irish Language act, no NI Bill of Rights. Mocking the Irish language in the assembly, petty middle school taunting exemplified by Gregory Campbell's "curry my youghurt".

For years Sinn Fein just weathered it as the price of being in government in the north while they made inroads in the south (now the third party and gaining ground still). In last May's Assembly elections they paid a heavy price for it. Nationalist voters disgusted at what they saw as "rollover nationalism" stayed home and Nationalism received 40 seats out of 108 and for the first time since the GFA a drop in Nationalist votes. The DUP and their new leader Arlene Foster were delighted and then proceeded to double down on sticking it to Sinn Fein and Nationalism.

The Current Crisis

The Renewable Heating Initiative scandal broke in December. Foster was minister of the dept. that oversaw its design and implementation. At best it's a financial cock up of career ending proportions, or at worst a half a billion pound corruption scandal that encompasses the DUP and supporters. Wwe will be finding out shortly, the courts are deciding to release the names of scheme beneficiaries. Foster refused to admit incompetence, corruption and went on an offensive offensive. The DUP cancelled the 50k Liofa bursary that takes Belfast kids to the Gaeltacht to speak Irish for a week in the summer. Talk about straw and camel's back metaphor leaping to life. The base snapped and informed the SF leadership that something needed to be done and done now and that something needed to be an election and/or Foster gone. But be Jaysus that something needed to be loud.

Martin McGuinness resigned as Deputy First Minister, Sinn Fein declined to nominate a replacement and that triggered the election.

Election Results #AE17

Voter turnout increased from 694k to 803k, 65% and the highest since the GFA. The voters that came out to vote Remain in the Brexit referendum in June came out again in this election. Overall Nationalists gained 70k, Unionists 26k and Others 11k. The assembly reduced the number of MLAs from 108 to 90 (6 to 5 MLAs for each of the 18 Westminster constituencies). Unionists have 40 seats, Nationalists 39 seats, Others 11 - the PBP socialist party and candidate are Nationalist but do not designate so in Stormont officially, but the party has TDs elected in the south. The DUP are the largest party by 1 seat giving them the First Minister title. A hundred votes in one constituency and SF would be First Minister and Unionist heads would be exploding like confetti bombs. It is doubtful to very unlikely Unionism would go back into the assembly if SF was FM and not DFM. Entirely silly but that's the place for you.

Brexit

Unionism no longer has a majority of votes or seats in Northern Ireland, they are no longer a majority on Belfast City Council (google fleggers for the saga). The newly drawn districts for Westminster remove the lingering Unionist gerrymander. In the next Westminster election (2020 at the latest) there will be Nationalist majorities in 9 of the 17 constituencies. That will flow through to the Assembly constituencies and there will be 50 Nationalist seats (out of 90) in five years.

This reflects the demographic trends predicted by the 2001 and 2011 census (The Horseman being one of the several anoraks that poured over census and election results for the last 50 years to make these predictions.) The Nationalist and Unionist communities have reached demographic parity. Every year 65% of the 15k that die are Unionist and Nationalists are a majority in every age group under 18.

Lucid Talk Quarterly Tracker poll shows the Unionist sentiment on Brexit. 8% already prefer United Ireland within the EU (UI/EU) over UK/Brexit. Another 30% want the UK to remain within the EU and unless every single one of those crosses over to pick UK/Brexit that is 53% of the electorate in favour of reunification. Which means it becomes a turnout battle when the border poll is called.

It is looking like it will be a hard Brexit. Which means a hard border between the north and the south. EU payments keep the agriculture sector alive in the north, it will die quickly without their replacement.

But Wait There Is More

The election is over but now the negotiations start and perhaps not in good faith. Initial murmurings indicate the DUP think this was a fluke, an angered Nationalism came out, had their hissy fit and won't come out again in a rerun. Wrong. Nationalism just woke up and realised that a United Ireland is near and that it is time to get out there, put their shoulder to the wheel and push as hard as possible to make it happen.

Nationalism have a clear mandate now to demand all outstanding items must be delivered before Stormont is re-established. I suspect that SF will also demand a border poll and Justice ministry run under d'Hondt. At this point Stormont is a sideshow to Nationalism, but it is critically important to Unionism. Sinn Fein don't sit in Westminster and in the next election will hold 9 of the 17 seats. Can you think of any national parliament on the planet where people win elections and refuse to sit? That is as clear a revocation of sovereignty as one can peacefully make.

I do not know what will unfold over the next few weeks, but it will be interesting in the Interesting Times sense. In five years time Ireland will be reuniting, Brexit is merely bringing the inevitable forward ten years. David Ervine's comment about knowing the colour of the wallpaper in the homes of prominent Unionist politicians is proving to be true as the various "constitutional" Unionists start to make worried remarks about how moving too fast might upset the wrong kinds of people and innocent Catholics may get killed. How even raising the idea of a border poll would be divisive. How dare Nationalism peacefully pursue their democratic objectives, because the opposition might get upset. The only way to fix the problems in the north is to end it and a majority now sees that.

That same inevitability is happening here too. The same disillusionment with the status quo. The same hunger for something better. The knowledge that we are right, that we are the majority and we have power. From Greece to Trump to Brexit to Ireland, people are making changes, not always good but we are lurching around aiming for the light. So get out there and push, push hard, now is the time.