Somewhere last week, I lost track of the days, but I know today is T-1 :=) HuffPo Pollster averaged polls has Clinton 55-42; a 13-point lead. In other news, I hear there's a NY bridge either for sale or crumbling under neoliberalism. Yesterday, it had Clinton 53-43; a 10-point lead. Some digging into the numbers below.

Here's Steppenwolf with my NY election prediction.

Thank you to the c99ers volunteering for Bernie's NY campaign. You can phonebank and facebank and offer logistical help from out of state. The reddit Bernie volunteering clearing house is at https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/new/

NY Race
There's an interesting thing happening in the NY polls. All week, the "catch-up" horns of the trend lines have formed, unformed, half-formed, and now broken. Bernie's trend line went from pointing steeply upwards to now wavering. Notice the Clinton trend line - which was wavering over the weekend in stead of curling downward - now pointing upward again. What's up?

Well, some pollsters have their thumbs on the scale is what.

Here's what I said yesterday about it's heavy-thumbed polls:
NBC/WSJ/Marist has been the most regular pollster in NY and they are not to be trusted much. Their latest poll to 13/04 has Clinton 57-40. "Ridiculous!" I've pointed out their failings in this series. To recap: NBC/WSJ by themselves have a 538 A- rating. But Marist has a B- rating, a 1.5 GOP lean, and a simple average error of 5.0! They use a live phone method and it sucks :=)

The other poll was CBS/YouGov up till 13/04, which has Clinton 53-43. It is an internet poll with a much bigger pool. But heavens, CBS is a B rated pollster and YouGov is rated C+

And today's gem came from Emerson, which has a poll out to 16/04 with Clinton 55-40. Ye gods, about that bridge...The poll was conducted over the weekend 16-17/04 with a 438-sized sample (yeah, I know.)
Here's their "methodology":

The Democratic primary consisted of 438 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.63% and weighted by age and gender based on 2008 and 2004 exit polling. The General Election sample consisted of 1,047 likely general election voters, and weighted by 2012 general election returns with a margin of error of +/- 2.95%. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.

The only other thing you need to know is that Emerson's 538 rating is C+

The polls have under-counted the Bernie vote more often than not. To me, here at T-1, Clinton has maybe a 3-point lead, if that. Plus, the last 48 hours of the races so far have generally seen Bernie close fast and furious. If this cycle's poll performances hold for NY, tomorrow's election night could top Iowa's thrill ride. I am highly optimistic about NY.

BTW: I wrote this on 1 April:
"The Bernie campaign turned the corner last night and the magic carpet ride is on. "All right, G! What are we smoking today?" :=) I've watched a whole lotta Bernie speeches. Last night's speech was in a whole different league. Remember the pleas for Bernie to "draw the contrasts" sharper? Heh, heh, heh, if you watched last night's speech, you woulda done the same chair dancing I did. He waited until NYC. Why? Bernie is smarter than us."
http://caucus99percent.com/content/bernies-magic-carpet-ride-victory-beg...

National Race
The national trend lines are looking pretty, but have been stuck this past week at Clinton 48-45. Bernie had started to check into the passing lane, but a series of thumb-heavy polls are keeping him from passing. Look for the National Rave polling to bust wide open later this week after the coming NY thunder clapper.

Thank you to all you wonderful c99ers working so hard out there for Bernie's campaign.
I look forward to your thoughts, data, and opinions.

Peace be with us, if we toughen our minds and work hard for Bernie's campaign,
gerrit

PS: From the Department of The Dogs Bark But The Caravan Marches On
Let's remember this nonsense from Bloomberg. We're gonna keep old Helmut here and laugh at him on 19 April.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-04-06/clinton-can-t-get-...

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at New York's Stony Brook University, said while Sanders has been “on a roll” lately, Sanders would need to buck historical trends and peel off a significant chunk of those superdelegates to have a shot at turning the contest around. He said New York is one of his last chances to make that case.
“If she lost, that would be a shock and that might really put some pressure on super-delegates,” Norpoth said of the New York primary. Given Clinton's deep political connections in New York, however, and a significant minority voting population more likely to favor Clinton, Norpoth said, Sanders is likely to find that “New York's going to be very difficult.”

Tsk, tsk, tsk, "very difficult"...bit of a faux clutch of faux pearls there, eh, Helmut?