08/19 OT: It's The 19th; Heyyyy 19

-

Transformations XIX

Transformations XIX public domain

So yeah, 19, as in Covid-19 for starts.

We have assorted experts making projections, predictions and posbbibly WAGs about the future, starting, specifically, with 2021.
A "news feature" in Nature, August 5, 2020 entitled:How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond, sub-titled This "coronavirus is here for the long haul — here’s what scientists predict for the next months and years." takes a somewhat in-depth look.
(https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5?utm_source=pocket&utm... ) There are a lot of variables, known and unknown (and ye olde unknown unkonwns) so there are a lot of possible scenarios that play out. One big variable, or variable cluster is recited as follows:

What happens in 2021 and beyond?
The pandemic’s course next year will depend greatly on the arrival of a vaccine, and on how long the immune system stays protective after vaccination or recovery from infection. Many vaccines provide protection for decades — such as those against measles or polio — whereas others, including whooping cough and influenza, wear off over time. Likewise, some viral infections prompt lasting immunity, others a more transient response. “The total incidence of SARS-CoV-2 through 2025 will depend crucially on this duration of immunity,” wrote Grad, Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch and colleagues in a May paper14 exploring possible scenarios (see ‘What happens next?’).

Different values result in different timings of periodic eruptions, as might well be expected. (Seemingly not factored in is the possible effect of the anti-vaxxers expanded by all the covid sonspiracists leading to 50% or more of the US population remaining unvaccinated.) Social distancing and masking might be required periodically for many years to tamp down periodic outbreaks. So all in all, I think it is worth a read.

Possibly iffy good news on this front

-

UC Irvine scientists get ‘initial hit’ in developing drug to treat COVID-19 ( https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/uc-irvine-scientists-get-ini... ) Per the article, they have developed a molecule known as a macrocycle that sits in the site of an enzyme that is critical to the covid-19 virus' reproduction, blacking it and preventing reproduction. This sounds like a wind, but it appears that the molecule isn't ready for the big time yet and they still need to do more work:

Now that Nowick’s lab has a prototype called an “initial hit,” researchers need to make additional molecules that are more effective in blocking the protease. Then they must figure out how to actually deliver the best molecule to infected cells.

This means that, while the new macrocycle is a promising first step, Nowick said, “people need to understand that it’s a long way from a drug candidate.”

-

Less iffy, but ...
‘AeroNabs’ Promise Powerful, Inhalable Protection Against COVID-19 ( https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/08/418241/aeronabs-promise-powerful-inhal... )

In an aerosol formulation they tested, dubbed “AeroNabs” by the researchers, these molecules could be self-administered with a nasal spray or inhaler. Used once a day, AeroNabs could provide powerful, reliable protection against SARS-CoV-2 until a vaccine becomes available. The research team is in active discussions with commercial partners to ramp up manufacturing and clinical testing of AeroNabs. If these tests are successful, the scientists aim to make AeroNabs widely available as an inexpensive, over-the-counter medication to prevent and treat COVID-19.

Annnd here it is, simply one a day to keep covid away. The article makes it sound like this stuff works, as is and is ready to go except for the mandatory testing and such. BUT, s"...eeking a commercial partner...", ah, there's the rub. How soon abnd how affordable. "Inexpensive" means many things to many people, and "over-the-counter" means that nobody's insurance will cover it. A dose a day for how long? Forever? Only 'til 2025 or so? Of course, if it works well enough and is distributed to and used by all, the virus dies off and goes away, but what are the odds of that. Maybe in China or some other socialist hellhole, but never, not if our very lives depended on it, in the good old capitalist USofA.

This article, FWIW, is an interesting read because of the information on the Llama link. The active ingreadient in these AeroNabs is based on the nanobodies used by Llamas and other Camelidae as part of their immune system repertire.

Though they function much like the antibodies found in the human immune system, nanobodies offer a number of unique advantages for effective therapeutics against SARS-CoV-2,” explained co-inventor Aashish Manglik, MD, PhD, an assistant professor of pharmaceutical chemistry who frequently employs nanobodies as a tool in his research on the structure and function of proteins that send and receive signals across the cell’s membrane.

-

Something else needing a cure; testilying

The Police Lie. All the Time. Can Anything Stop Them? - Would the criminal justice system collapse if cops were forced to tell the truth? By Mark Jospeh Stern, 8/4/2020, in Slate. ( https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/08/police-testilying.html )

The article first presents and then goes into detail on this not news and on at least one thing that jump-started a seeming surge in this age old behavior. You know, when they outlawed torture, then cops had to lie about torturing, etc. Each new restriction led to another specific type of falsehoods until today, the truth is pretty much absent. Some places are experimenting with developing databases of some of the worst liaars in blue and refusing to let them testify about anything, which tanks some of the bogus cases they generate. Whether such techniques will have a material effect, as whether or not they will become widespread is up in the air. There is a possible solution partly given and partly only hinted at, but it is unlikely to come to pass:

What would happen if a city really tried to eliminate testilying? I posed this question to Bennett Capers, a former federal prosecutor and Fordham Law professor who studies police lies. “In all honesty, I think my initial reaction would be that the system cannot exist without it,” he told me. “It would grind to a halt.” Capers said that “run of the mill policing would have to change. We are doing about 13 million misdemeanor arrests a year. With a lot of those small crimes, there’s fudging. Nobody’s paying attention.”

Police, in other words, would have to stop arresting so many people for minor crimes. Once cities stopped deploying officers to harass misdemeanants, they could shrink their police force, reducing the number of encounters between cops and civilians. Agencies might then dedicate those resources to investigative and detective work in order to build solid cases against suspects, thereby creating a higher bar for which cases to pursue. Prosecutors would be forced to make a more careful calculation about the risk of bringing a case to trial and drop cases that rested on a search of dubious legality. In the short term, the legitimacy of the entire system might take a hit—though only because its participants confronted the illegitimate basis of so many convictions. Over time, however, the system might regain the legitimacy it lost with a preference for punishment over justice.

The article is worth a read.

-

Are we doomed to drown in plastic?

A short must-read, Can Cities Go Zero-waste? One Japanese Town Tried - Kamikatsu famously declared its goal was to go waste-free by 2020, but it didn’t quite get there. Their experience shows we can’t move further without systemic changes.- .An op ed by Olivia Sullivan in The Revelator August 7, 2020.

Covid-19 may have exacerbated the problem some. Thanks to Covid-19, a lot of places have banned reuesable bags, reusable mugs and cups and the like. Take out goof with disposable utensils proligerated. This gave the plastics industry an opportunity to lobby like crazy for a return to maximun disposable plastic living. But, all in all, the problem was insoluble already.

The town only met 80% of it goal, stymie by plastic packaging, mixed materials and unrecyclable plastics. These things will continue to be non-ecyclable, and will continue to fill landfills, reivers, lakes and oceans for as long as they continue to be made. Companies must stop making so much plastic and non-recyclable mixed materials.

According to the author:

We must also shift the paradigm by holding producers responsible for the waste they create. By requiring new plastic products to contain recycled plastic and making producers fund the collection and recycling of plastic products, producers would be incentivized to design longer lasting products that can actually be reused and recycled.

The author makes nts of some proposed legislation in the US, the Break Free From Plastic Pollution Act, but notes that it has stalled. They further note:

Requiring producers to stop making nonrecyclable products designed to be thrown out is the first step toward achieving that goal. Only then will Kamikatsu and other towns, cities and countries around the world finally be able to eliminate plastic pollution and reach 100% zero waste.

Not news, but important to know. Not mentioned is that "comsumers" need to stop buying crap in plastic packaging, single use plastic crap, and stuff made from or packaged in non-separable mixed materials.

-

Be that as it may there may be fully recyclable and biodegradable flip flops in out future, should we happen to have one. The new science behind algae-based flip-flops By Cynthia Dillon and Mario Aguilera, UC San Diego
Wednesday, August 12, 2020 ( https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/science-behind-algae-based-f... ) is a quick read that will get you up to speed on the matter. More importantly, if they are real, what else might lie down this path?

-

We should return from our far too brief camping trip sometime today, but well after this posts.

-

be well and have a good one.

.

-

It's an open thread, so have at it. The floor is yours
.

-
-
Share
up
18 users have voted.

Comments

QMS's picture

Two little bits of sorta good news.

AOC nominates Sanders

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1295951897300480000/photo/1?

and

USPS to put hold on changes till after elections

https://www.wsj.com/articles/postmaster-general-dejoy-to-testify-before-...

have some fun

up
5 users have voted.
enhydra lutris's picture

@QMS
act, even if it gets nowhere.

be well and have a good one

up
4 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Raggedy Ann's picture

The universe is in charge and when it says we can move past the covid is when we will. We are in a worldwide societal change that humans cannot control, so it's fun watching them try.

Enjoy the day! Pleasantry

Edited to add: Here's another time the universe was in charge of changing the world:
https://medium.com/publishous/the-virus-that-crushed-the-roman-army-f675...

up
5 users have voted.

"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Anja Geitz's picture

@Raggedy Ann

You beat me to it. That’s exactly the song that went through my head. Smile

up
4 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Raggedy Ann's picture

@Anja Geitz
that song began playing on my mind's victrola, lol! Pleasantry

up
4 users have voted.

"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

enhydra lutris's picture

@Raggedy Ann

be well and have a good one.

up
1 user has voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

earthling1's picture

@Raggedy Ann @Raggedy Ann
Does anyone really know how our armed forces are enduring this pandemic?
Of course, tptb would downplay any effects. Citing Nat. Sec. for reasons.
I do know an aircraft carrier was waylaid in some foreign port weeks ago.

up
2 users have voted.

After six years, still getting robo-calls from Marriot Hotels.
They're like herpes.

Anja Geitz's picture

Thanks for the science news and possible Covid treatments. I imagine being a scientist right now working on Covid is unlike anything they’ve encounter before. Let’s hope for humanities sake, they get it right.

up
4 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

enhydra lutris's picture

@Anja Geitz
to do real science, with funding problems unless they're coming from pharma pigs which will really restrict what one can and cannot look at.

be well and have a good one.

up
4 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

ridges and valleys just in from the coast. Some reached out to the coast, and evacuations just south of where we were camped, We could see flames quite close to our location, so we packed in in and rolled home late last night. Now clean-up and unloading and all that good stuff starts.

be well and have a good one.

up
5 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Anja Geitz's picture

@enhydra lutris

But mostly in Azusa which is about 14 miles away. Woke up Saturday morning and the sky was completely brown with the acrid smell of the smoke in the air. The worst it ever got here was a few years ago when ash rained down on everything in the neighborhood. Scary is the only word for it.

up
5 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

enhydra lutris's picture

@Anja Geitz
big one was 850 acres about 20 miles away. When we got up this morning everything had a fine coat of ash. Air has been fairly bad sinceabout 3 or 4 days ago. A lot of folks are wearing masks not for covid-19 but for smoke

be well and have a good one.

up
2 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@Anja Geitz
big one was 850 acres about 20 miles away. When we got up this morning everything had a fine coat of ash. Air has been fairly bad sinceabout 3 or 4 days ago. A lot of folks are wearing masks not for covid-19 but for smoke

be well and have a good one.

up
0 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Granma's picture

@enhydra lutris I’ve just been reading about the fires. Many people had to evacuate in the middle of the night. One woman said she was barefoot and in pajamas, grabbed glasses and a mask, but not even a wallet, they had to leave so fast.

up
1 user has voted.
usefewersyllables's picture

and all the ships at sea...

Recycling. Back when we used to live in CA in the Bay Area, where they know how to do these things, we were militant recyclers. We sorted everything, and put all of our carefully sorted bins of glass and paper and metal and plastic out for the yellow recycling trucks to come pick up. And then the regular green trash trucks would come pick up our trash. We were Doing The Thing! We were Helping! We were Making A Difference! And it felt really good.

Then, it came time for us to relocate to CO. We packed everything up, but had a few larger items that we wanted to get into the recycling flow that were too large for them to pick up with the yellow trucks. So I put them in our vehicle and drove them over to the big transfer facility in Redwood Shores, and did the necessary song and dance needed to get the items into the recycling queue- there was a little pile just for that! And it felt really good.

And as I was leaving the building I noticed that a little Bobcat skid-steer came and pushed the little pile of recycling over into a much bigger seagull-covered pile. I then noticed that sure enough, the stream of the green trucks and the yellow trucks were all dumping everything out into the same much bigger seagull-covered pile, which was then mooshed together with big front-end loaders and put into big semi trailer trucks to be taken Somewhere Else.

Ouch. That was a brick added to the cynicism wall well over 20 years ago, and it still stings.

Anyway, we still "recycle", in that we put some things in a different bin that gets picked up by a different truck. We aren't particularly militant about it anymore, though. I suppose that I should take a drive over to the transfer station here and see if they can surprise me...

up
10 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

enhydra lutris's picture

@usefewersyllables
recycling facility. Most of the Bay Area was Waste Management, and I don't trust them at all. We still have serious sorting to do here and I suspect from the periodic bulleting from the local sanitation district about people not doing a good enough job that at least some of it is handled right.

be well and have a good one.

up
3 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

ak.PNG

ak1.PNG

up
4 users have voted.
enhydra lutris's picture

@gjohnsit

be well and have a good one.

up
2 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@gjohnsit Obviously, not dead enough. Then again zombies.

up
1 user has voted.
magiamma's picture

et al

lightening storm pic from Sunday. It went up the coast and started many fires. It took two hours to pass here. From my back window. Stayed up watching for fires in the reserve.
lightening_0.jpg
.
Woke up this morning to this from the fires up in Davenport and Pescadero. They have evacuated some of Boulder Creek and Ben Lamond. Just now have included Bonny Doon.

0 containment
Smoke in neighborhood.jpg
.
Ashes all over everything here. Eerie colors now.

These fires started 40-50 miles up the coast coming inland toward Ben Lomond now. Are there fires near you?

Then I saw this also. wtf?

Amazon data services unit grabs sites near Gilroy

A 66-acre site in Gilroy next to U.S. Highway 101 between Leavesly Road and Gilman Road, showing a section outlined in white that roughly depicts parcels purchased by an Amazon subsidiary in August 2020. Amazon's cloud and data services unit has bought big chunks of farmland in Gilroy in an unexpected deal that suggests the e-commerce behemoth maintains a wide-ranging appetite for places to expand in Silicon Valley.

Glad you got out sooner than later. Too many fires.

Take good care and have a good one, everyone.

up
6 users have voted.

Stop Climate Change Silence - Start the Conversation

Hot Air Website, Twitter, Facebook

enhydra lutris's picture

@magiamma

Marsh Creek/Sunol, about 850 acres. Over on the cost I can't recall all of them, Big Basin, Waddell Creek and more to the south and east, Butano and Pescadero were a bit to our north. (we were on a bluff just east of HWY 1 across from the northern end of Añ0 Nuevo right across from the Franklin Point Trail, just south of Gazos Creek/Pigeon Point.

Sounds like Amazon, and, of course, the US, pave all the great cropland for suburbs and business centers. Stupido!

be well and have a good one

up
4 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@magiamma

Glad you got out sooner than later. Too many fires.

I just learned that our campgrounds was evacuated later on last night. It ws still pretty full when we left, so I bet it was a zoo when it happened, and I hate to think what HWY 1 was like, about 60 RV/Trailer sites plus 150 or so tent cabins, lots of tent sites and some wood cabins. Mostly full, all bumped onto Hwy 1 at one time. Whoooeee.

up
3 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

snoopydawg's picture

Stupid Trump digs himself an even deeper hole with these convention speakers

Kos must not have noticed all the republicans the dems have speaking at their convention because if he did he wouldn't have uttered those words. Unless......

Collin Powell the guy who lied to the UN and the world about Saddam having chemical weapons dared to show his mug and root for Joe Biden who pushed for the Iraq war that had dismantled the Middle East and killed millions of civilians. Meg Whitman who wanted to cut California's Medicaid by half? Kasich who is so anti woman and anti abortion was given a prime speaking spot.

Who does kos picture in his diary? The kid from Covington that has just won millions of dollars from media sites for slander. Groan.......

HIs claim to fame, as is almost always the case in Trump’s modern GOP, was being an asshole to an American Indian protester.

Well except if you watch the whole video you see that didn't quite happen the way everyone thought it did from a edited video. Think the kid would have won his lawsuits without going to court?

Your gut reaction is the same as mine: instant revulsion that this piece of shit would elevate these deplorable humans.

Pot/Kettle, Markos.

This after he once again attacked Bernie for something he didn't know the details on and then when called out he doubled down. Well redeeming feature for him is that Russia Gate has made another comeback. I think every person that has worked hard to debunk it during the last 3 plus years should just ignore the Russia Gaters. I will because they have made their minds up that a foreign government is in control of their president and the democrats didn't bother to impeach him for obvious treason.

It's going to be fun to watch as Biden doesn't reverse any of the damage Trump has done because both parties are on board with it. Will heads explode? Hope so because who could ignore Biden's history and think that he is going to save the country?

Hey let's talk about the DNC convention:

"Our leaders know how to use the right salad fork"

up
8 users have voted.

It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

enhydra lutris's picture

@snoopydawg
denialism at play there. Whatever will impair the narrative is just elided.

be well and have a good one.

up
4 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Azazello's picture

@snoopydawg
Global warming
Racism
Imperial wars and interventions
Gouging by for-profit medical industry

What Biden will end:
All investigations of Russiagate, Obamagate, Corruption in Ukraine and the Clintons

up
7 users have voted.

We wanted decent healthcare, a living wage and free college.
The Democrats gave us Biden and war instead.

snoopydawg's picture

@Azazello

All investigations of Russiagate, Obamagate, Corruption in Ukraine and the Clintons

But after the senate report yesterday stating that Trump did indeed collude with Russia I am not sure that Durham and Barr are going to do much anyway. That this report came out just after Clienburg (sp) plead guilty for changing the FBI's report on Page makes me think this was released to derail what Durham will find. But then I think Trump could have done much more to derail the Russia farce before now. Why hasn't he highlighted that CrowdStrike told Schiff that there was no evidence that Russia hacked the DNC? Or any of the other reports that blow Russia Gate out of the water? Is he and the GOP in on the ruse or just dumb? What happened to Rudy's info he got from Ukraine on Biden and Hunter? What happened to that?

Of course Barr would never have gone after Obama and Biden, but it has been reported that Durham hasn't even interviewed Comey, Brennan or Clapper who were the ringleaders. Just Fitzmas part 2?

up
6 users have voted.

It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

snoopydawg's picture

@Azazello

that it is now Iran and China who have joined Russia to put bounties on our troops in Afghanistan? Will that wake them up to their buying into a psyop? I doubt it, but it should.

Tehran has issued a strongly-worded denial after US media reports accused it of paying Taliban-linked militants to attack American forces in Afghanistan, calling the claim baseless misinformation.

CNN reported on Monday that the Iranian government provided cash to a Taliban-linked terrorist group, the Haqqani network, in exchange for six attacks on US and coalition forces in Afghanistan last year. The allegation came from unnamed sources within the US intelligence community.

up
5 users have voted.

It is not until the tide goes out that you discover who has been swimming naked.

enhydra lutris's picture

@snoopydawg
simple re-run with a new villain.

be well and have a good one.

up
4 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

@Azazello
money.

be well and have a good one.

up
3 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

enhydra lutris's picture

The place we wee at was evacuated later in the night, but we don't know exactly when. Much later would've been a real PITA, however, especially in a crowd, on the roads out to the nearest freeway, mostly 2 lane, sometimes seriously winding and wafting smoke.

up
3 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --