Hillary's problem with Independents
Way back in January the Washington Post noticed that Hillary Clinton had difficulty getting the votes of anyone that didn't self-identify as a Democrat. Hillary had a -31 rating with Independents according to Quinnipiac polling.
The headline was "Independents like Hillary Clinton less than in 2008".
A few weeks ago a new WSJ/NBS poll shows the problem is much, much worse.
An April Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that Mrs. Clinton’s favorability rating among independents had dropped 15 percentage points in the last four months alone. That poll found that 20% of independents viewed Mrs. Clinton positively, compared with 62% who viewed her negatively—a gap of 42 percentage points. In January, that same poll found her with a positive rating of 35% and a negative rating of 54%—a gap of fewer than 20 percentage points.
A year earlier, four months before she launched her presidential campaign, that gap stood at just four percentage points—35% positive to 39% negative.
What could have happened to turn independents away from Hillary by such an overwhelming margin? And who are these independents?
Nate Silver at 538 put two and two together and discovered that much of this deterioration in Hillary's support among independents can be found in one place - Bernie Sanders supporters.
As a result, about 40 percent of Sanders’s primary and caucus voters identify as independent, as Republican or with some party other than Democrats, according to my estimates.
Hillary dominates among Democratic voters, but her support outside of the party is almost non-existent. Many Hillary supporters online are untroubled by that, but that is called denial.
Silver explains it thusly.
Although Clinton’s substantial lead in pledged delegates (and larger lead in overall delegates) makes her the all-but-certain Democratic nominee, her lack of support from Sanders voters is harming her general election numbers....
But both surveys showed a large pool of undecided independents, potentially the Sanders voters that YouGov identified.
If Clinton wins over those voters, she’ll gain a few percentage points on Trump in national and swing state polls, and the race will potentially look more like it did in March and April, with Clinton having a fairly comfortable lead over Trump. If not, the general election could come down to the wire.
Most recent GE matchup polls have shown Trump closing on Clinton, and this unfavorable shift is happening at the exact same time that Sanders supporters have turned against Clinton.
According to the most recent YouGov poll, 61 percent of Sanders voters have an unfavorable view of Clinton, against just 38 percent with a favorable one. YouGov has been tracking these numbers for several months,1 and they’ve gradually gotten worse for Clinton:
What Nate Silver doesn't do is speculate about why Bernie supporters had a favorable opinion of Hillary as recently as January and now view her extremely unfavorably. There are no polls that will tell us why.
But I can make a few guesses.
Last winter the Clinton campaign started using a tactic rarely seen outside of a general election - slandering the entire base of a political opponent.
It’s become such an all-purpose, handy pro-Clinton smear that even consummate, actual “bros” for whom the term was originally coined — straight guys who act with entitlement and aggression, such as Paul Krugman — are now reflexively (and unironically) applying it to anyone who speaks ill of Hillary Clinton, even when they know nothing else about the people they’re smearing, including their gender, age, or sexual orientation. Thus, a male policy analyst who criticized Sanders’ health care plan “is getting the Bernie Bro treatment,” sneered Krugman. Unfortunately for the New York Times Bro, that analyst, Charles Gaba, said in response that he’s “really not comfortable with [Krugman’s] referring to die-hard Bernie Sanders supporters as ‘Bernie Bros'” because it “implies that only college-age men support Sen. Sanders, which obviously isn’t the case.”
...A USA Today/Rock the Vote poll from two weeks ago found Sanders nationally “with a 19-point lead over front-runner Hillary Clinton, 50 percent to 31 percent, among Democratic and independent women ages 18 to 34.” One has to be willing to belittle the views and erase the existence of a huge number of American women to wield this “Bernie Bro” smear.
BernieBros was always a myth, but never stopped the Clinton campaign.
Quite the opposite.
Instead of moderating the misogynistic slandering of Bernie supporters, Hillary fans have reacted by doubling down and calling Bernie supporters racists as well.
And unlike Trump, who is willing to acknowledge that some Mexicans might not be rapists, Hillary supporters have no problem making blanket statement that all Bernie supporters, every single one of them, are racist and sexist.
But it's only Bernie supporters that are the problem, not Hillary supporters. Riiiiight.
What makes this unusual is that this tactic is rarely applied outside of a general election. Oh sure, it's not unusual for things to get nasty between candidates during primaries. That's par for the course. Welcome to politics.
The difference is that you always want to get your opponents voters' support after the primaries are over.
That's why slandering those voters, all of them, is a stupid, self-defeating, long-term strategy.
I could go into why trying to attribute a small number of abusive, anonymous, online posters who claim to be Bernie supporters as representative of all of them is obviously dishonest.
I could go into the fact that some of that abuse never came from Bernie supporters at all, and was wrongly misattributed.
I could go into the fact that the internet is not a nice place, and pretending that this is something new is dishonest.
You can read it all here.
Instead I'm going to focus on the idea that Clinton supporters can slander and belittle all Sanders supporters and still think they can guilt them into voting for Hillary.
Just how Stockholm Syndrome'd do you think progressives are? These people are self-identified independents. They don't feel any loyalty to your candidate from the start. Calling them names isn't going to work.
So what exactly were you thinking? That you didn't need the independent vote?
Congrats then, because you don't have it.
Comments
I'm about to drop this on TOP
Should get a very nasty reception.
Damn!
You are a glutton for punishment, aren't you? LOL
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Yep
Until they finally ban me, I'll keep poking the bear with a stick.
Bears are nice.
You're poking a croc in the eye.
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Good!
Looking forward to the explosion ...
There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.
Link please
I have a hard time finding the new TOP posts.
Would love to T & R it , also a positive comment
and fun to watch the frothing..
President Sanders
wasn't worth the effort imho
but i went and recced and tipped you and then got out of Dodge
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
They're feeding on a diary supportive of King leaving the D...
I'll come tip and rec.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
What's the collective noun for feeding zombies?
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
A brainhunt of zombies?
a shamble?
They won't understand.........
Making sense is beyond them.
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
T and Red
in spirit anyway, since I haven't logged back in since I was punished with a time out.
Beware the bullshit factories.
I'll go for the Rec. and Tip
Don't think I'll stay for the foaming of the mouths.
I want a Pony!
I believe the DNC and Hillary
I believe the DNC and Hillary campaign believe they don't need us. Whether they believe moderate republicans will vote for Hillary in sufficient numbers or they have rigged enough aspects of the election to ensure a win, I don't know.
I Go With Vote Rigging
You're right in thinking that HRC and the DNC don't care about us. But HRC has been plotting to be POTUS for a very long time. She's not about to let a silly thing like cast ballots get in her way. And now she even has a thin-skinned fascist buffoon to run against. The GOP doesn't even respect her enough to run a dignified statesman against her. Lucky for her, eh?
In WI they(Rs) would rather
In WI they(Rs) would rather sit home than vote for a Dem, So I expect most Rs to hold their nose and vote for Trump here. I would shock me to see polling after the election saying otherwise about Wi Rs
My theory
The Clinton camp does not want the support of the left. They do not want to have to deal with the issues that are so important to us. What they are counting on is getting some of the vote from the left and poaching a lot of voters from the right, include registered Republicans. It is a risky electoral move, but if it works and apparently they believe it will work, it puts Hillary in a stronger position to work with a Republican Congress. The current Democratic party (since Bill Clinton) has successfully transitioned to the former Republican party.
The Democratic party is the party of Bill and Hillary Clinton. They remade it into Republican lite. They really (and I am serious about this) want to destroy the left and all the vestiges of the New Deal. Neo-liberalism is all about funneling wealth and power to those who "deserve" it based upon their idea of meritocracy. All the rest of us who are left behind get what we "deserve" which is nothing because we did not work hard enough to rise to their levels.
I have been writing about this in the morning open threads and the more I research the ideology behind meritocracy and neo-liberalism, the more I am convinced that people like the Clintons simply do not care. They would rather lose the election than give up their ideology.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Bottom line: They don't care if we live or die unless they're
gonna make a profit from it.
The 2 Rules of Neoliberalism
(from Naked Capitalism, IIRC Lambert Strether)
1. Because markets
2. Go die
It’ll be like Israel versus Gaza.
They’ll ration us just enough to eke out an existence and barely survive. At the same time, everything they do allow us to have, we have to buy from them, at higher than normal markup.
also sounds like one of Rockefeller's company towns, but
on a national level this time around. USA Inc, and we are granted the right to eek out a living here so long as we buy only from the high-priced company store and bow before the company guards.
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth.-Lucy Parsons
Sounds like the coal company towns
You load sixteen tons and what do ya get?
Another day older and deeper in debt.
St. Peter don't ya call me cause I can't go.
I owe my soul to the company store.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Joo90ZWrUkU]
My grandfather worked in management for the mining company (R & P Coal) and he hated that song. It was way to close to the truth.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Good article
http://www.salon.com/2016/04/30/clintonism_screwed_the_democrats_how_bil...
And, can't remember if I posted this here?
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/democratic-convention-insiders-223384
“Democrats cannot remain tone-deaf to the concerns of the party's grass roots,” added an Iowa Democrat. “Many of the people supporting Sanders are new to the process and the party. They are supporting ideals, not a party. It is foolish to think that they will join something they were never a part of and something that they feel is not very welcoming to them.”
The Salon story
is more great background material for my series on neo-liberalism. Thank you for the links.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
It's like a trainwreck...
I just had to look.
Boy,they jumped you quick.
I want a Pony!
So the smears and slanders from the Clinton campaign and
her supporters, like Daily Kos, are the reason most Bernie supporters won't back Clinton and not the fact that she's an unhinged war criminal who could take the world into WWIII and a full fledged servant and member of the ruling elite? Does that mean if they had played nice and didn't use smears and slanders most of the indie Sanders supporters would vote for an unhinged war criminal Wall Street tool?
You gotta admit
that Hillary's record hasn't changed in six months.
She was, and is, a neoliberal warhawk.
However, her support among independents has dropped through the floor.
So something besides her record made them turn against her.
Do you have other theories?
I suppose you're right in part, but if that's the measure
some Sanders supporters are using, smears and slanders instead of war and economic crimes, then that's pretty weak imo. It makes it sound like if only they weren't insulted they would vote for a war criminal, I can't come to any other conclusion. I think those Bernie supporters that are thinking this way should reevaluate what they're dealing with here. Who cares what they say, Clinton is Clinton, that's the thing.
From what I've gathered many on this site are not voting for Clinton because she is who she is.
Not everyone
is a high info voter - even in the Bernie camp.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Does the primary reason
actually matter? I think the shit sandwich she presents us is now offered with an extra helping of shit. One who is an historically horrible candidate with an historically horrible political past is showing she has nothing new to offer except new improved horrible with a side of nasty attitude. How do her unfavorables not increase as well? The more people who come to know her the more they dislike her and don't want her anywhere near the levers of power.
What's really new? The elephant has filled the room, is spilling out into the street, and cannot be ignored any longer.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Well ya, frankly the only reason she's winning and will
probably win is because of a rigged and corrupted political process. Sanders has won something like 11 out of the last 14 primaries, I think largely because as you say more people have realized what she's about, what's she's done and what she will do as President. So she's riding on the initial surge and trying to hang on for dear life with alligators surrounding her evil self, when the best gauge for who Democratic voters want as the nominee has occurred in the last 4-5 months. .
But perhaps this idea that the smears against Sanders supporters is counterproductive because it does insinuate that if that hadn't happened things would be different. The case should be clearly made that Clinton is an unacceptable candidate no matter what insults she and her supporters and the DNC throw Bernie and his supporter's way (I guess that throwing shade nowadays). The Clinton camp will use that after the convention, along with Bernie's probably endorsement, to try to woo those Bernie supporters whose primary reason for opposing Clinton now is because of the atmosphere created.
I think Steven did that well the other night in his article.
I don't think the insults were the motivating factor...
I think the insults were, however, a prod for many to look deeper into her record and they didn't like what they saw.
It could also be that many were willing to hold their nose despite her policies, but when it became her policies AND her disdain for progressives in general a lot of us said, "Well, fuck! Why hold my nose to vote for someone that not only doesn't support my goals, but actively insults me to boot."
I doubt it was a primary factor, more like the final proverbial straw that broke the progressives back...
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
That sounds about right
Never underestimate the natural inclination to say "Fuck You! I won't do it" when someone gets disrespected.
I think it goes a little
I think it goes a little deeper than that. For me, at least, it's not just the fact of the insults, it's what that change tells us about her mindset. As long as she was keeping up the facade of appealing to progressives, it meant that she believed that she needed us, which meant that we might still have some small amount of leverage to get some things we want. But once she decided to go full bore "Fuck you - I don't need or want you", that was the end of that. For her to decide that she can insult us with impunity, it means that she has decided that she can win without us. Which means that we no longer have any leverage at all.
Her support with indies was never all that, AFAIK
It's just that now it's utterly abysmal.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
fugwb has a point
What she's done in a really obvious way, over the past couple months, that she hadn't done before, is steal elections.
She's not really bothering to hide it.
And the Nevada thing really rubbed people's noses in it--deliberately.
So that's one of those things that makes a politically involved indie--as opposed to one that's indie b/c they don't want to think about politics--see red.
Actually, it makes people angry across the ideological spectrum. You're not gonna win many friends in this country by rigging vote counts.
If this weren't a racist country, they would have figured all this out 16 years ago--but, to be fair, 16 years ago it appeared that only the Republicans were engaged in election rigging and voter suppression. Even I fell for that one. Jeb Bush made me a gung-ho Democrat--until about 2010.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
She did quit pretending to be a progressive.....
She also quit pretending to be nice. Trump focusing on her is new. Wait till he puts Bill on the Lolita Express to visit Rush's favorite playground. I'm sure a lot of Bernie's people who would have voted for her won't now because she and DWS are being so ugly.
I still want to know what she never shuts that gaping hole in her face that is suppose to be her mouth.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Sent this out on the links to FB and Twitter....
If any of you are out there, please repost and circulate it.
Thanks,
dk
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Lack of TRUST for one.
Lack of TRUST for one.
Even her supporters don't trust her
But they think it is a feature not a bug. For neocons, they have the doctrine of the Nobel Lie. For the rest, they use it to massage her into a shape they find acceptable.
I think part of it...
...might be that at least some of the independents who weren't as knowledgeable about $hillary are now a lot moreso than they were. And their opinions have tanked as a result.
I know I was waffling on the hold-my-nose thing until the lie about lying under sniper fire came out and then I started looking a lot harder.
Love of power is a puppet string. - Makana, Fire is Ours
It is not just the smears and slanders
It is and has always been about policy and issues. The smears and slanders are just icing on top of their very entitled neo-liberal cake. Al, you know that most of us here who probably are better informed than the average voter, have said from the beginning that we cannot support a corrupt warmonger.
Quite honestly, I truly believe that there will be a huge drop off in votes from those under 40 too. Clinton represents the status quo and they are not having it.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Early in the year
when I was still commenting at top, I made a statement that basically said if any Bernie supporter didn't support clinton in the general, should she win the primary, is a dumb fuck. I wrote that. Now, 4 months later you'd have to put a gun to my head to get me to vote for her and then I might just take the bullet instead. Why? I can honestly say it isn't clinton's dogs and their constant barking, the MSM, the in-the-bag-pundits. None of these slimy bastards could persuade me to vote or not vote for clinton. They mean less than nothing to me. What has caused me to make such a dramatic change is the stealing of elections in this primary. This is the lowest thing I can think of. It makes me boil with anger.
We cannot reward this injustice by voting for her should she win the primary. The most important right we have, voting, has been stolen. One of the definitions of rape is "an outrageous violation". In this context Bernie and his supporters were raped. And they did it so unabashedly, so in your face what are you going to do about it. You can say what you want about the republicans this primary but no where did you see this level of corruption. If there was, Trump wouldn't be the presumptive nominee. If a person really cares about Democracy, I can see no avenue to support hillary clinton in the general election.
Bernie or Bust...
u wrote
^^^ this 1000x ^^^
it's my issue also. I hate her policies, I hate what she stands for and the grifters who associate w her. I care about the Scotus. I really do.. but disenfranchising voters, stealing votes, etc is my line in the sand.
Don't believe everything you think.
The Nevada swift boat attacked election process
Not only was it done, it was done in the context of an election event
Well, the Dean Scream swift boating was also done during an election event
And even Swift Boating attacked a "war hero" at his strong poing
We know that one of Karl Rove's tactics is to attack the strongest point of the opponent and to attack someone's war record and carry it off was a coup
Hillary folks are trying to attack Bernie for the sin of bringing up the New Deal
As more and more corruption comes out in this primary, the issue of election integrity might just get the necessary attention.
The election integrity folks were at the Left Forum at NYC this weekend along with an all star group of radicals
Probably more to come on the election integrity front
Great Essay.
In 2008, 40 percent of Clinton's supporters said they wouldn't vote for Obama. However, the fact that Obama didn't demonize and try to humiliate the supporters for supporting Clinton, and as a way of discrediting Clinton, likely made it easier to leave the door open for them if they changed their minds in the future. The fact that those supporters were also attached to the party and life long Democrats, in ways that a large part of Sanders base is not, made it easier for them to reconcile the loss and support Obama in 2008.
The Clinton team has actively been erecting barriers inside the party and really bullying people into falling in line. They have been doing that for months now, and what it does is build up resistance to do the exact opposite.
Here's an article from the that had many echoes for this campaign. The difference is, Clinton wasn't the nominee in 2008, so we didn't have a chance to test the hypothesis. I do think a large part of Sanders support will coalesce around Clinton if she's the nominee. But 25-30 percent in exits say they won't support Clinton and I suspect those are probably much harder "Nos". There are also people who could go either direction depending on how the party manages the end-game.
Obama low negatives then too
Obama - that old word, charisma!
Did anyone watch & listen to him, and see him SMILE, and not smile back at the screen? I doubt it.
Broke my heart when he made Rahm COS, and put Geithner at Treasury, sold out on Single Payer, a few other things, and I STILL think he is wise,intelligent, humane, and probably potentially the best POTUS we're gonna have for our lifetimes. Unless Bernie is elected.
I no longer think Obama is wise or humane at all.
Best POTUS at faking it, maybe.
The main thing is honesty. If you can fake that, you’ve got it made
I don't think a large part of Sanders support will coalesce
around Clinton if she is the nominee. I think some will. How about a wager? If it's more than 40%, I'll owe you a drink; if it's more than 50%, I'll owe you lunch.
Here's the thing: following AZ up with even more obvious voter purges and election rigging in NY, followed up by NV, is a great counter to OMG Trump!!! Must vote against Trump!
If you've got a cheater on the other side, that's offensive to people. An establishment Democrat--a former congressman who was supporting Hillary, a Hillary delegate, in fact--tore up his Hillary ballot and walked out of the NV caucus. I doubt he'll be voting for Hillary. If even people like that are changing their mind about her, I seriously doubt that a majority of Bernie supporters are going to "rally" behind Hillary Clinton in the fall.
And the primary's not over--she still has plenty of time to do more extraordinarily rotten things, and is clearly planning to do some at the convention.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
How many of those unhinged war criminal
stories are coming through the MSM, where most of her supporters go for a fair and balanced take on current events?
Oops. This was a response to Big Al a few entries back. Not sure how it got here.
They are not needing us
Because she is going to go after the Republicans who think the TP is just too crazy. Anyone who missed that she was going after the Republican donors late last month, would miss this little tell. The DNC and Clintons do not want or need the progressives/independents.
She may be surprised
A lot of Republicans are more likely to fall back into line and vote for Trump than Sanders' Dems and Indies are to vote for Clinton.
GOP voters are hard wired that way.
If she wins, my money is that key states will have votes flipped by electronic voting machines because the GOP establishment will side with her over him.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
The GOP leadership won't sabatoge Trump for Hillary.
He's already mending fences with a lot of them and the recent NRA endorsement doesn't hurt one bit. As you say, Goopers are hardwired for unity. By the time the election rolls around, most if not all the honchos will be riding the Trump train.
Can't say the same about the Dem leadership if Bernie gets the nod though.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
All Trump has to do is run as
All Trump has to do is run an ad citing God ,Guns and religion and all will be well with the Rs , seen bumper stickers with that slogan in Wi
WI, MI, OH, PA...
You're right. It won't take much, and especially when he's running against someone they already despise as much as Hillary.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
In '92
~20% of Ohio & Michigan voters voted for Perot.
I think Trump is sending out signals that he will be malleable
to party dictates. For one, how is his ego going to take stonewalling from his own Party? More than anything on earth his self image is predicated on SUCCESS. So, in order to be viewed as having a successful Presidency, I foresee him possibly morphing into Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell's yes man as opposed to the opposite.
" “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR "
Agree! The DNC & FSC will likely garner two camps of Repub
'elites' from everything that I'm reading and hearing.
The 'fiscal' conservatives and the neocons.
They're in the bag for her, already.
(I doubt that there is very little that Trump can do to change that.)
But, I agree that not that many of 'rank and file' Repubs will vote for FSC, if they can't stomach Trump.
Mollie
In Tribute To 'Barabas'
Please Visit Save Our Street Dogs [SOSD]
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
That's correct, but I think she's miscalculating
The "moderate" Republicans hate her too. If you're talking about the rank-and-file voters, which is where the numbers are.
No, her real "firewall" is neither black people nor moderate Repubs, but her allies in the election-rigging business.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
I really want to see some 3 Way GE polling
I know what Bernie has said about no 3rd Party/Green Party Sanders/Stein; but I do think that if the HRCDNC slander-bully-machine continues to act ham-handedly as it has the entire campaign, and particularly at the convention with a shut out of Bernie and his supporters, I could see him doing it; if he felt he had a serious chance.
Independents are like 43% of the vote. Of that number, I would suspect about 2/3 to 3/4's would choose Bernie to avoid HRC or Trump.
I think he could also get about 25% of the self-identified dems. That's 3/4*43% +1/4*32%=40.25% of the vote; which in a 3 way race is called a winner, unless one of the other two really bombs/blows it.
And short of trump choosing to drop out, or dying; there is not much he can do to blow it with his base that would send it to HRC.
HRC, on the other hand could be indicted in which case her people will 80%+ go to Bernie to avoid Trump
But we need to see some polls as to how likely this hypothesis is.
And I cannot stress how concerned I am that she will be indicted. Given the evidence, any normal person, criminal intent or not, would be indicted and in jail for a fraction of what she's done with that server, ignore pay for play for now. Comey's been after her and Bill since the 90's. The only way he doesn't get an indictment is Obama interfering. And I'm not sure he's willing to destroy his legacy for HRC.
____________________________________________________________________________
"I'm not interested in preserving the status quo; I want to overthrow it. "
-Niccolo Machiavelli
"Sorry Hillary"
-TheJerry
40.25% of the vote; which in a 3 way race is called a winner...
In a pure democracy. Not when the Electoral College determines the winner. 40.25% probably cannot meet the Electoral College threshold to elect a President, so it goes to the House (and Paul Ryan) to decide.
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
Not f that 40% is enough to win the states. EOM
What This Independent Thinks
Let's start at the top: Who is giving her money? We already know that Wall St can't give her enough, knowing that they will own her if she were to win. She will in return betray us to them without a second thought.
Next, look at how often she shifts positions. As soon as a certain issue trends a certain way, she's visibly attempting to catch up with the parade. If it doesn't work out that it benefits her, she drops that issue and pretends to have had an entirely different stance on the topic. The trail of dropped topics would be enough to lead a blind man to Judge Crater, Amelia Earhart, AND Jimmy Hoffa. And, in particular, when she sees that Sanders has some traction with the voters on an issue, she immediately attempts to usurp his support by claiming to share the position, and any evidence -especially video evidence- to the contrary be damned as being a Bern Bro lie.
Lastly, what has she ever accomplished which benefited ME? NOTHING!
I honestly hoped that her medical care provisions would live up to all the hype we were given once Bill first won election. But when she went before Congress to attempt to win their support for passage, I couldn't believe how convoluted the entire package was. I bet she shouldn't find her way through it from one end to the other even if she had GPS, a Girl Scout, a guide dog, a lantern, and a trail of bread crumbs.
So I don't care if she makes nasty comments about my parentage, my intelligence, or any other personal attribute. I remain too aware of her inabilities to do the job she seeks to allow her to win my support to attain it.
Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.
Rbt. Borsage suggests with some shift in strategy, and Bernie's
support, she could win over 'young voters and Democratic leaning independents'. Which makes no sense after what he says about that same demo in regard to Trump.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-l-borosage/what-does-bernie-want_b_...
Other than that its an okay essay.
He lost me with his first sentence,
Does Borosage actually believe that we don't realize that he is a part of the Democratic Establishment?
Seriously, he says,
Not sure, but I figure that he wrote this piece in order to 'gauge,' or measure the responses [i.e., the degree of negativity] of Bernie's supporters.
If that's not the purpose, then I'd say that Borosage is in massive denial. Especially, if he thinks that FSC simply parroting Bernie's policy proposals will mollify his supporters--most of whom, wouldn't believe a word that FSC says on a good day!!!
Mollie
"I think dogs are the most amazing creatures; they give unconditional love. For me they are the role model for being alive."
----Gilda Radner, Comedienne
A Tribute: 'Lily, Keeping The Promise Alive,' National Mill Dog Rescue
[National Mill Dog Rescue, A Rescuer's Creed, YouTube]
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
I thought he made some good points about midway thru
but he definitely began and ended with an establishment spin. Seems that, despite the fact that not all the votes have been counted yet, unifying the party is the topic of interest. And proposing that these young and democratic leaning independent voters, who might easily stay at home, could be enticed back into the fold by some 'I support a $15 minimum wage' spiel, and not understand that such a move would receive the same negative response that it got when she tried it at the last debate, was one of those statements that falls into the category of cognitive dissonance (which appears to be highly contagious). But I liked that he put the onus on Hillary to bring the party together for a change.
Hey, mbeitchman--agree about
putting the onus on her, not Bernie.
But, in our case (meaning my entire Family)--it's simply 'too little, too late.'
IOW, there's nothing she can do, to get our vote.
BTW, I don't have a personal axe to grind with Borosage. I guess he's okay for an Establishment-type.
Hey, have a good one!
Mollie
“If a dog won’t come to you after having looked you in the face, you should go home and examine your conscience.”-- Woodrow Wilson
"If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went."--Will Rogers
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Bob Borosage and his org are the best of the
establishment Democrats. But they are the establishment. More so than Bernie is, IMO.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
The moral rot is deep
The moral rot of "American exceptionalism".
Hillary The Hypocrite is a Pentagon pork-hustler who claims guns are terrible things... unless they're being used used to kill gooks and greasers and hajjis in one of Kissinger's colonies. Yeah, she's got a problem with this independent.
Hillary is the Anti-Independent Candidate
Not only does she not attract Independents, she actually motivates them to vote against her. As I said yesterday, she's a big reason a lot of them are independents in the first place.
And if you think her numbers with Indies are bad now? Just wait until that trainwreck of a coronation in Philly.
Bottom line: she's the consummate establishment candidate running in what may be the most anti-establishment election cycle any of us have ever witnessed.
So keep hunting for all those phantom liberal-Republican crossover votes Hilary. You're gonna need every last one to make it even close enough to steal from Trump.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
I'm an independent.
Voted against bush 1. Voted against al gore (we didn't need 4/8 more years of Clinton sleaze.). Didn't have a dog in the fight in 2008, but I thought Edwards was fake & didn't support him, knew Hillary was fake & didn't support her. Was v. Moved by the stories of African Americans who were alive during Jim Crow & had a chance to vote for an African American president. But felt that we didn't have enough if a record on Obama to know what he really believed. Boy, was that right. But I wasn't going to vote for palin.
Didn't know much about Bernie. Had heard about his filibuster of the budget bill. When I learned that he might be running for prez on Kos I was interested. But made myself wait to support him until I heard his kick off speech in Burlington. I fell hard. A candidate who id'd the disease infecting this country, not just proposing band aids. Still, I made myself give O'Malley a chance (Never considered Hillary. All the negatives and as old as Reagan.): Band aids.
I've gone from funding Bernie to get his much-needed message out to funding him so he has a chance to win. I've gone from it's Bernie or Jill Stein in the general to considering if it isn't Bernie I'll rat fuck Hillary in the general. Alabama is safe red, I want that vote to be resoundingly in the anti-Hillary column (although I'm long in the camp of she won't beat Trump.) because if she somehow gets elected, I want her presidency to be illegitimate from day one (which it will be), and running up the score in red states could deny her the claim of winning the popular vote. Because at this point my visceral hatred of her is as intense as that of any RWNJ.
I just cant vote for her
I just cant vote for her either ,ive been an indy for 40 years and enough is enough
Registered Democrat, and I
Registered Democrat, and I hate Killary and her neo-libberalism infection of the party, I feel the Bern!
So long, and thanks for all the fish
Love this diary, great work.
I have a related one up on the list there as well... Getting buried in hate in the comments but it has stayed high in the list all day and includes a fundraising pitch for Bernie, so, I'm happy. Jason Linkins thing on Huffpost today is nice as well... he basically argues that uniting the party is on the nominee, not the defeated candidate. First time commenting; nice place you all have here! Glad to be aboard!
I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
I went to TOP and tipped
but there was no button to let me rec the diary. Looks like they decided to limit the recs.
Movement
On both sides of the duopoly, oddly the Republican establishment fell first. The Clintons next. I prefer Sanders and if he is not a choice, Trump.
Thanks for posting here.
I just really really really don't want to share diaries from another website.
Now I can post this with the quotes that support a lot of what is already being discussed on FB:
We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when we are afraid of the light.
--Plato
Fantastic Diary/Essay!
So clear and succinct.
" “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR "