Error message

Deprecated function: Array and string offset access syntax with curly braces is deprecated in include_once() (line 20 of /home/caucusni/public_html/includes/file.phar.inc).

Happy VJ Day 광복절 光復節 光复节

Share
up
5 users have voted.

Comments

Kim Jong-tae, is a well known South Korean geopolitical military analyst who appears often on their independent media. He just made an historical comparison to the president's blunder in Iran where he virtually exhausted the US inventory of air defense and stand off offensive weaponry. The comparison or analogy is imperfect but the significance rings true. He compares the outcome of the Iranian tactical strategy against the US forces in the mideast to Zhuge Liang's strategy against Cao Cao in the battle of Red Cliffs 赤壁 208-209 CE. This battle marked the beginning of the end for the Han Dynasty and the transition to the Three Kingdoms Period.

This quote below is from one of those Shenzen sponsored you tube channels learn chinese short video. I couldn't find an good outtake of the scene from the movie Red Cliff that I was looking for. I've watched the part of the movie that shows this scheme described below.

The first hurdle they ran into was when the allies realized that they were way short on arrows, and they wouldn’t have time to manufacture new ones. So Zhuge Liang built a bunch of dummy boats filled with strawman soldiers and with straw roofs. He sent them swiftly across the river at Cao Cao’s forces. Cao Cao thought it was a surprise attack and ordered his archers to shoot down all the troops before they could get to his boats. He peppered the boats with arrows until they finally stopped and retreated back to the allied shore. Cao Cao thought he won a victory, but really, it was just a ploy, as the dummy boats came back, and the allies now had 100,000 extra arrows. To this day, Chinese people use the idiom 草船借箭 (cǎochuánjièjiàn) to describe Zhuge Liang’s genius move.

Use straw ships to take advantage of their arrows.

Kim Jong-tae believes that Gen. Kaine advised Trump before the war against Iran started that the US would deplete it's missile resources to the point that challenges in other strategic venues such as the far East could not be addressed. He believes that the US now is really not in much of a position to assist its allies in East Asia in the event of a military conflict, and really has little to work with except for nuclear weapons.

Another analyst who worked previously as a civilian advisor to the South Korea Ministry of Defense stated in another broadcast that it would take 3 years to reach a level of missile and ammunition levels that preexisted the war with Iran, assuming that war would be resolved now. But that in order to be ready for any conflict in the Far East with China, it would take ten times that long for the US to reach the required inventories to present a credible defense for a major war in Asia that involved the Chinese mainland.

up
7 users have voted.

己所不欲,勿施于人。

QMS's picture

.
Never been there. But, this recent push toward militarization is
concerning at the outset. Not sure east Asia needs another nuclear
state as a counter balance given their historical aggression. Doubt
China and Russia will ignore their threats. I don't trust the motives.

Thanks for the background info.

up
4 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

@QMS @QMS

...twice in my life on the way to or from Seoul. I wouldn't learn much from being there anyway because I don't speak or understand Japanese. I remember once at Narita the locals were in an uproar because the runways were being extended or something like that. I'm okay with that. Mt. Fuji is nice.

Ms So. has been to Japan several times. It's no big deal to take a ferry from South Korea to get there. She goes with her friends when she visits South Korea. She usually stays several weeks in South Korea to shake off the jet lag, so she has plenty of time to visit Japan. They use a South Korean tour guide, it's cheaper than gateway. None of them speak Japanese. The guides of course, do. They make all the arrangements. Some of it's a ripoff. Now, all the travel fees are increasing. Immigration fees as well. Takaichi is doing the same anti immigrant act as we have here.

The tough talk against Russia and China is quite dangerous, but they do it in part to compensate for the bad economic conditions. It's a distraction that serves the ruling class interests. But the government is serious about becoming a military power with offensive capabilities. It's stupid to provoke China and Russia. Japan still has a natural gas project in Sakhalin with the Russians. Does Japan want to lose it? The Philippines are the same way. They lost the Chinese capital infrastructure projects to return to the old US military patronage.

The defense minister Koizumi went to the Yasukuni Shrine today, while Takaichi stayed away. If we live long enough, Koizumi will probably become prime minister. I'm dreading that. I get a weekly from Japan Times in English by email. I also like Asia Pacific Journal Japan Focus. I've read a fair amount concerning Japan's imperial adventures.

I watch a lot of Japanese news coverage lately in the Korean media and from Japanese sources that are in English. I've been following Hosaka Yuji videos, a Japanese born naturalized South Korean, for years. He just got an award from the new prime minister of South Korea. He's an expert on the history of Japanese-Korean relations.

On August 3, 2026, Prime Minister Han Seong-sook presents the Presidential Commendation to Hosaka Yuji, Distinguished Professor at the Graduate School of Public Administration at Korea University, during the awards ceremony honoring contributors to the 80th Anniversary of Liberation, held at the Government Complex Seoul in Jongno-gu.

Thanks your comment Q.

up
3 users have voted.

己所不欲,勿施于人。

@soryang
for some decades, I don't really have a problem per se with Japan having a real military, but when it comes to what that should look like and how organized and commanded, there are real issues that are mostly unaddressed, at least that I'm aware of.

If Japan develops a defense posture that is, well, defensive - and suited for 21st Century conditions (like the Iran conflict is proving the US military *not* to be) then fine. Japan is unlikely to develop - or even be very interested in developing - the ability to project power offensively. But there is a danger of its being sucked into broader conflicts due to its close integration with the US military.

For my money (well, I do have to help pay for this stuff) Japan would be better off transitioning to armed neutrality, something along the lines of an island version of Switzerland or pre-NATO Finland.
This though, would require decentralization of command structures (as with Switzerland or what Iran has done), extensive shelters and planning to protect and support the populace and an armed and trained population.

The latter in particular is anathema to the ruling class though, and AFAIK there are no active measures in support of anything resembling the above.

Anyway, Takaichi has been promising to relieve consumers from inflation pressures, not to greatly expand debt, build out more military and make huge investments aimed at re-shoring and revitalizing key industries.

That is, wants to have her cake and eat it, too.

The only thing that might work to finance all that is selling off the world's largest stash (over US $1 trillion) of US debt that they hold. But the US is desperate to avoid that and wants them to buy more.

up
4 users have voted.

@Blue Republic @Blue Republic

The perspectives of people like you who know something about Japan from experience are valuable. I remember when this happened-

Defense Secretary Announces U.S. Forces Japan's Upgrade to Joint Force Command

The department originally announced in 2024 that USFJ would be upgraded from a primarily administrative command to a joint force headquarters, meaning it would have more warfighting and operational responsibilities.

Hegseth said the USFJ upgrade will help improve the command's ability to operate with Japan's Joint Operations Command, which was just established March 24, 2025, and is responsible for commanding branches of the Japan Self-Defense Forces.

"We certainly welcome JJOC's establishment this past week," Hegseth said during his opening remarks.

I saw some critical reports on Japan unifying its intel branches as well last week.

Saw this today

Pitch Black strengthens Australia-Japan interoperability, sees debut of India fighter jets

(edit: my grammar is awful)

up
2 users have voted.

己所不欲,勿施于人。

QMS's picture

.

Had two stop-overs at Narita via Delta from Detroit.
Not much cultural exposure there. On another line,
there is noise in the media about mending relations
between the two Koreas suggested by the south. Is
there any substance to that?
Thanks.

up
3 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

@QMS @QMS

...in South Korea is more aligned to a tradition of nationalism and sovereignty that hoped for an ultimate reunification with the North. But ordinary people on the street don't think it's practical at this point. The political policy then of the current administration is aimed at reducing tensions, increasing dialogue, opening whatever type of exchange is possible. The war in Europe and North Korea's role in that war makes all of this more difficult. Also, the US is opposed to it, which makes execution of any "normalization of relations" much more difficult for the South. After normalization, a peace treaty, with the North was desired by the Southern left of center leadership. How could a nationalist leader abandon the desire for reunification? I think ordinary Koreans are too preoccupied for the most part with their personal challenges, to take on the burdens they envision by moving closer to North Korea.

The North at the same time, adopted a new policy of rejecting a unification vision, and treating South Korea as a "separate state." This is a kind of slamming the door shut on the South. Why is this? Kim concluded that the South is just a colonial subject of the US, and doesn't have agency. So what's the point? Conservatives in the PPP in the South have a view toward sanctions and maximum pressure bringing down the North Korean government. So they are all in with the US policy. Yet, the South Korean government still has a Reunification Ministry, as a cabinet department to handle relations with North Korea.

A lot of experts believe that any thaw or opening to exchange between North and South will erode party discipline in the North, and weaken the dictatorship. South Korean culture is regarded as having a corrupting allure that must be kept out.

up
4 users have voted.

己所不欲,勿施于人。

QMS's picture

@soryang
.
US is unwilling to see reunification happen. That would
be against their grand strategy of coercing Asian 'allies'
to ultimately fight China. So. Korea is dependent on military
and financial support from the west, so they comply.

up
2 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

@QMS

They are reliant on the large US consumer market, rather than financial "support." They are also reliant on the US post war international financial infrastructure. Somehow, that reliance needs alternative pathways for financial commerce.

In terms of military dependence, the main areas of dependence are largely ISR in nature, and the strategic deterrence element that only the US is in a position to provide. In terms of conventional military power, that leg of US military support other than the two aforementioned are steadily eroding. South Korean conventional military power is actually something the US is counting on. It's large conventional ground forces, it's MIC producing tanks, artillery, ships, aircraft, etc. Japan is in a similar position land both are feeling somewhat uncomfortable in this respect. The US war in the Persian Gulf, tariff extortion, sanctions regime, and arm twisting for capital investment in the hundreds of billions is stressing South Korea and Japan particularly in the energy and financial sectors.

up
3 users have voted.

己所不欲,勿施于人。

QMS's picture

@soryang
.
USN is pulling their last carrier group out of East Asian waters to
beguile western Asian fantasies about control of that region. It becomes
more apparent the US juggernaut is becoming ineffectual. Perhaps the
Koreans are reading the tea leaves - better to partner with China?

up
4 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

@QMS

...had made nice with Russia, Syria, Iran... instead of employing sanctions, subversion, proxy wars, etc. against them, then they would have had far less incentive to develop as close ties with China as they now have.
Russia in particular has had longstanding rivalry with China - which has coveted Eastern Siberia and its vast resources (previously they had territorial claims to a big chunk of it, although dropped, for now at least).

up
3 users have voted.
usefewersyllables's picture

@Blue Republic
China can now use the US as its all-too-willing proxy *against Russia*. We are now their ever so convenient Ukraine, pecking at the Rus around the edges. Win-win, amirite? We have taught the world exactly how to conduct such activities.

Our leadership is too ego-blinded to realize that they might just be being played. I'm sure that the thought has never crossed their minds.

up
5 users have voted.

Twice bitten, permanently shy.

...raises concerns on both sides of the aisle domestically. I read a computer translated transcript and give my reactions to some portions of the speech-

Through this, we may also discuss effective measures to halt the advancement of the North’s nuclear capabilities.

출처 : 최보식의언론(https://www.bosik.kr)

Lee didn't call for "denuclearization of North Korea," as some critics claim. This isn't Pompeo's CVID which ran prior talks with North Korea into the ditch and into Russia's arms seven years ago.

Trust comes from sincerity—understanding the other side’s pain and empathizing with one another.

Even today, there are victims and bereaved families living with the wounds and suffering of the past.

The history of Korea-Japan relations has included conflict, but it has also included efforts, such as the 1998 Kim Dae-jung–Obuchi Joint Declaration, to open the future together on the basis of courage and sincerity in facing the past.

At a time when Korea-Japan cooperation is more important than ever, the new light of Korea-Japan relations that we create must provide warmth to those who still endure pain in the shadows of history.

출처 : 최보식의언론(https://www.bosik.kr)

Platitudinous, uninspiring? Perhaps. And what is the pain on the Japanese side that wasn't self inflicted or otherwise invited? That wasn't the result of it's unchecked aggression and cruelty? I think this aspect of his speech regarding "mutual pain," is poorly delivered and might have been better expressed.

What people need to understand about this speech is that it is intended primarily for consumption by foreign audiences: particularly the US, Japan, China and Russia. Therefore he had to be "practical" as he puts it. In this respect the speech fails to deliver adequately to his supporters and their aspirations that put Lee in office. Yet at the same time, the speech is not the great gaffe or failure that otherwise friendly political elements claim in their critique. Yet, I'm sure this part is quite distasteful to his former partisan enthusiasts.

At a time when Korea-Japan cooperation is more important than ever, the new light of Korea-Japan relations that we create must provide warmth to those who still endure pain in the shadows of history.

Upon such deeper trust, I hope we can open together a new 60 years of peace and prosperity, not as “neighbors who are close yet distant,” but as “neighbors who are close and even closer.”

출처 : 최보식의언론(https://www.bosik.kr)

If anything it smacks of a betrayal of national sovereignty values on the anniversary of Liberation Day.

As our great forebears proved, the scale of a dream shared by the people determines the destiny of a nation, and a common will toward hope can change the course of history.

Our responsibility is to carry the light inherited from our forebears farther and make it shine brighter—toward better lives for our people and toward the future of the world.

To accomplish this, we must first tear down the barriers within ourselves.

Differences must not become hostility, nor should hatred, exclusion, and conflict obstruct the nation’s progress.

출처 : 최보식의언론(https://www.bosik.kr)

"barriers within ourselves" Is this the equivalent of the approach of US diplomats looking toward the anti China block? You know the US diplomats who avidly supported the former president Yoon Seok-yeol they portrayed in the media falsely as a "beacon of democracy?" Or US diplomats who complain, "when are they going to get over it?" Now that Yoon is in prison for insurrection and treason, the truth is that people like US Ambassador Michelle Steele still support Yoon and the far right and perpetuate the myth of a Chinese conspiracy to rig South Korean elections.

In this global competition, as the landscape of the world economy is being transformed, the people and the government, central and local governments, businesses and workers are all one team.

No matter how different our thoughts and interests may be, there is only one country in which we and future generations will live.

All citizens share the aspiration to “leave behind a better country.”

The People’s Sovereignty Government will take the lead in pursuing a politics of compromise and coexistence.

출처 : 최보식의언론(https://www.bosik.kr)

The reality of international monopoly enterprises and the US drive for neo mercantile blocks drives South Korean cartels into the fold. This is why KCTU (labor) and other civil society organizations on the left, including the candlelight movement leadership are critical of this rightward drift by South Korea's President Lee. Maybe he is blowing smoke here, but Lee needs to demonstrate independence not acquiescence to restore confidence. Did the ministry of foreign affairs really say it would consider ways to provide "military support" for the war against Iran?

And what is the US response?

additional text-

He also referenced the "unrelated(?)" fact that South Korea is not helping the US denuclearize Iran.
Japan is also not helping the US in the Iran War and Japan sees North Korea as a major threat.
What does this sudden move by Trump mean for US-Japan relations?

up
2 users have voted.

己所不欲,勿施于人。