EMERSON POLL FAIL (only 3% polled were 18-26!!!!)
Submitted by new minas on Mon, 04/18/2016 - 11:10am
The Emerson poll just released shows Clinton with a 15 point lead
They actually put out cross tabs but they bundle up the age groups of 18-34 (only 22%)
But for the record they interviewed 438 registered democrats
and only 15 (FIFTEEN!) did NOT vote in 2012
That means that, even if ALL OF THESE VOTERS WERE AGE LIMITED TO VOTE then the 18-26 age group polled was 3.4%
AT LEAST one or two are older and just didn't cast a ballot in 2012.
Bernie takes this age group by 55+ points! turnout in this age group is likely going to be around 12% of the total vote!
now you know why the other polling groups don't put out detailed age crosstabs
LOL OMG ROTFG!!!!
cross tabs found here: crosstabs (excel spreadsheet)
Comments
Thank you for showing the bias
We The People have to uncover the truth and reveal the lies. This type of BS has run amok for the last few decades. Now with the advent of internet and social media we have the tools to expose and point out garbage and lies.
Appropriate that Hillarites are using...
the tactics of Tobacco and Fossil Fuel companies to sell their shit.
By their fruits shall you know them or some other version of mangled bible.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
When all you have is a hammer..
No, wait, wrong analogy. When all you have is a sycophantic entourage (including the fifth estate) all you hear is your inevitability. Bwaaaaaaahhaaaahhaaaaaaa!!!!
Bern, Baby, Bern!
Improve the Resilience Resource Library by adding your links.
Vote Smart - Just the Facts - 40,000 politicians by name or zipcode
plus it is a land line only poll
give me a F__ng BREAK!!!!
If you do not understand that being part of the "establishment" is a slur in the minds of 99% of the U.S. population then you are completely out of touch and probably are one.
I will say that if I had an incoming landline call
that said "Emerson" I would rush to answer.
lol
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
depends
do you have phone id for your rotary land-line phone that are the types called by the pollster?
If you do not understand that being part of the "establishment" is a slur in the minds of 99% of the U.S. population then you are completely out of touch and probably are one.
the youth vote has been historically low
I'm looking at a voting sheet for a project I just handled. Yes, I know there's a huge difference between voting on a municipal bond issue and voting in the presidential primary for a candidate who you care about but just for reference, in this particular town the 18-29 vote is 5% of the total. Adding the 30-39s, the under 40 vote is 12%. The 50+ vote is 76%.
I remember the first time I came across this. A local pollster had some small percentage of young voters in his model and I scoffed. Yet he turned out to be right. So we can discount the poll but unless the Sanders campaign works hard to get out the vote Emerson could be accurate.
The way you beat the polls
is to GOTV and beat the likely voter model. That part of polling is far more art than science.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
in new york
in the 2012 primary the 18-29 voting group was 18% of the vote and the 30-44 group was 29% for a total turnout of under 45 years old of 47%
If you do not understand that being part of the "establishment" is a slur in the minds of 99% of the U.S. population then you are completely out of touch and probably are one.
thanks. That's encouraging
then they *should* be using that model
But Hillary's numbers don't look so good
When you don't use a low turn out model.
And ever since OWS, the 18-26
And ever since OWS, the 18-26 group has a reason to vote Bernie, they are facing the life crippling student loan debts.
So long, and thanks for all the fish