South Korea's conservative party shaken after Yoon's dismissal

Former President Yoon's dismissal from office by the Constitutional Court April 4 may have cleared the way for Democratic Party leader, Lee Jae-myung's rise to the presidential office as the Democratic Party's candidate in the election that must be held by June 3, to fill the office.

Korea Pro published a full English translation of the Constitutional Court's announcement on the unanimous dismissal of former President Yoon Seok-yeol from office.

The PPP conservative party suffered major defeats in city and county elections two days prior to the Constitutional Court's impeachment order.

Current polls favor democratic party leader Lee Jae-myung against prospective opponents in the imminent presidential race:

(Source-언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube April 5; Real meter poll )
So Lee Jae-myung is 25 points ahead of Kim Moon-soo (Labor Minister); More than 30 points ahead of Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon; 30 points ahead of Daegu Mayor Hong Joong-pyo; and more than 35 points ahead of Han Dong-hoon, in these graphics based on the real meter polling.

Poll numbers against other potential candidates:

(Source-언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube April 5; Real meter poll )
In a four way race, Lee Jae-myung, Democrat, 48.7 %; Kim Man-su, PPP 20.8%; Lee Nak-yeon, independent center, 4.7%, and Lee Jun-seok, independent right at 4.2%.

(Source-언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube April 5) Prime Minister and Acting President Han Deok-soo

The conservative party (PPP) Yoon's party may change its brand, after this disaster. There are few suitable candidates that aren't tainted one way or another in relation to supporting Yoon after the martial law episode. Some may be considering having Han Deok-soo, the Prime Minister and current acting president run for the office. Some other candidates may fear the stigma of running under the current circumstances before the party can change its name (it apparently takes 180 days) too much of a liability. Let the Deok do it. Han has an image as a colorless technocrat who knows the nuts and bolts. He doesn't seem suited for campaigning. He established his bona fides by refusing to appoint three Constitutional Justices to Constitutional Court vacanies, thus impeding the impeachment process, but the CC let him off the hook when Deok himself was impeached. This seems so unusual. We'll see.

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QMS's picture

sounds like the weak tea of the DNC -
better messaging will solve their problems.
In other words, do not take blame or responsibility,
do not chart a new course. Just leave the tainted brand
name behind. What delusional world do they inhabit?

He who cannot describe the problem will never find the solution to that problem.
-- Confucius

诈欺

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Thought is the wind, knowledge the sail, and mankind the vessel.
-- August Hare

@QMS who supported Yoon doing now? What's going on in the streets after the impeachment?

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

soryang's picture

@on the cusp @on the cusp

I haven't seen anything on the streets since right after the court decision dismissing Yoon was announced. There were a couple of scuffles with Yoon supporters and police. One guy dressed up like a cop in riot gear smashed a police bus window but got away and then was arrested several hours later. I don't know how police found him.

I saw one report right after that said the "zero tolerance" police rule was in effect. There were 3700 police mobilized. Other than that, the last I heard was demonstrators went home "after cleaning up after themselves." I think this was a reference to those protesting for Yoon's dismissal. I haven't seen any live coverage since.

Yoon has a criminal trial coming up on the 14th. the trial court reportedly is across from his private apartment at the Acrovista apartments. He hasn't left the official residence yet and people are wondering why not. (edit: my guess is they're destroying evidence). Former president Park Geun-hye left after 2 days. Seems as if he and Kim Gon-hee are stalling. People living and working in the Seocho district of Seoul in or near the Acrovista don't want him back because of potential security issues, guards, gawkers and demonstrators. Yoon's personal guard I think is cut down quite a bit to just a few guards. He lost his pension and quite a few other privileges.

The constitutional court justices will probably have more security until police determine that there is no longer a security threat to their safety.

I'll be watching this as it unfolds. Yoon also lost his presidential immunity, so he may be facing additional indictments, in addition to the insurrection indictment already issued, trial pending. This means he could face pretrial detention again.

edit: I think Yoon and Kim may be saying they may not move back to the Acrovista for security reasons, and therefore need more time to find another place to live.

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語必忠信 行必正直

soryang's picture

@QMS

...consistently. They don't want to wake up, because they can't deal with the mess they created. They made fools of themselves. They don't know how to recover. I beginning tot think Han Deok-soo is looking better to them as time passes.

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Socialprogressive's picture

mean for South Korean and US relations and for South Korean and North Korean relations?

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We come from dust. We will return to dust.
That's why I don't dust. It my be someone I know.

soryang's picture

@Socialprogressive

I uploaded it improperly. Thanks for your question. It wasn't easy to address, like an open book college question. I had to go back to some of posts I'd written over the last seven years to respond.

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soryang's picture

...would be a starting point for South Korea for Lee's approach to both relations with the US and North Korea.

The simple minded US approach which essentially boils down to the neo-con like "you wit us or agin us" views this as very negative. Yet, South Koreans generally, including Lee and the democrats, are partial to the US. This is going to continue unless the US gets too heavy handed. Having an alliance should be cause for stability not disputes, resentments and instability. Honestly, the US leadership just doesn't get that because of South Korea's affinity for both US and Chinese cultures, they are a useful weathervane for conduct of Northeast Asian policy. It is primarily the US Indo-Pacific Command which overestimates US power, and certain lobbies in the National Security orbit that resent liberal inclinations in South Korea which try to carve out a new or different course, in the tradition of Kim Dae-jung, and Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in, referred to as the Sunshine Policy. Lee is in this Sunshine policy tradition which is liberal rather than "leftist" or "communist," as it is labeled by the neo-con US establishment. It's common sense really, it's called diplomacy, even though even this is an oversimplification. North Korea historically speaking isn't a "foreign country" from a Southern nationalist perspective. The US made it so, and the US and Japan want to keep it that way, permanently.

I think that Lee would like to create a more stable status quo with North Korea. Yoon did everything he could to undermine former President Moon's accomplishments in this respect. Particularly, he undermined the Sept 19 Military Agreement, which governed military activities in and around the the DMZ and Nothern Limit Lines (NLL) in the East and West Seas. This agreement precluded military exercises in those areas proximate to NLL on both sides, so to limit the opportunity for military confrontations to arise. Also, flight restrictions, fixed wing and helos were implemented north and south of the DMZ for the same reason. The US resented all of this, and their proxy Yoon, did all he could to violate the agreement and in effect dismantle it. Moon and the democrats even passed a law barring propaganda leaflets going across the DMZ. The 9.19.2018 MA resulted in reduction of heavy arms in the DMZ and cessation of loudspeaker propaganda. Yoon undermined all of this leading to various national security lapses and scares, with worsening military tensions with North Korea, including a series of propaganda and trash balloon incidents, and drone violations of the DMZ by both sides.

The neo-cons in the US deliberately crashed and burned the negotiations with Kim Jong-eun focused on denuclearization. Trump went along with this. As a result, Kim turned to Russia. So Trump walked away not only from negotiations with North Korea, but also the South Korean initiatives, which Lee would be inclined to follow. As a result, North Korea basically cut off the improving relations with South Korea, shut down emerging, cultural, social and economic contacts, with the South and turned to Russia.

So Lee's moves I think would involve curtailing military activities in the buffer zones established by the 9.19.2018 MA, pulling back the scale of US and South Korean exercises, perhaps going largely to a desktop model, and perhaps even reducing bilateral military contacts with Japan. These moves could be made to put North South relations on a more stable foundation, in spite of North Korean indifference or intransigence. There would definitely be resistance from the UNC, USFK, Washington, etc. The idea here is that South Korea has to take some initiatives with regard to its national security because the US and the Yoon supporters on the right are a poor judge of what is good for South Korea, and Northeast Asia generally. The polarization of the region into the old cold war orientation needs to be walked back.

I think on the economic side, some sort of South Korea, Japan, China understandings will be established if possible, despite the almost pathological US anti-China drive. I'm not sure how much the trilateral partnership will be walked back, but the military relationships will be deemphasized with an attempt to reestablish some sort of South Korea national interest in the direction of sovereignty rather than being merely the obsequious puppet of US and Japanese interests.

My knowledge about this topic concerning the Sunshine Policy, and the September 19, 2018 Agreement, Moon's rapproachement with North Korea, and how it was deliberately undermined and rolled back during the Yoon administration comes almost exclusively from South Korean media sources rather than any western English language sources, which I have rarely if ever seen. I would anticipate measures from Lee to roll back the presence of US strategic assets such as B-2s, B-52s, nuclear submarines, fleet ballistic missile submarines, and live fire military in the buffer zones established in 2018 in negotiations with the North, whether by Moon or Trump reached at Singapore. There is a more remote possibility of the South and North agreeing again to negotiate cultural exchange and communication initiatives such as those reached during the Spring is Coming thaw in relations in 2018. This because of the North's distrust of both the changes in policies by the US and South Korea since that time.

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Socialprogressive's picture

@soryang

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We come from dust. We will return to dust.
That's why I don't dust. It my be someone I know.