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"Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across."

-- Sun Tzu

News and Opinion

Washington Drops Ukraine, Israel Backs Down On Hamas Demands

The two big stories in the news today are the Trump administration saying Ukraine is going to have to give up territory and NATO ambitions in order to secure a peace deal, while Israel appears to retreat from its ceasefire standoff with Hamas.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the US “does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome for a negotiated settlement,” and that “returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.” This comes as Trump announces that he is in talks with Vladimir Putin to bring the war in Ukraine to an end.

Both NATO membership and recapturing all territory lost to Russia have been the goal of Ukraine’s President Zelensky and the NATO enthusiasts throughout the western world who adore him. Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp explains:

President Volodomyr Zelensky, although there have been signs in recent months that he’s accepted that’s unrealistic. But he is still calling for strong security guarantees from the US that involve the deployment of troops, which Hegseth also dismissed.

“Any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops. If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission, and they should not be covered under Article 5,” he said.

“There also must be robust international oversight of the line of contact. To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine,” Hegseth added.

“Hundreds of thousands of people would still be alive had Biden been willing to say this three years ago,” Aaron Maté wrote on Twitter regarding Hegseth’s comments. “Instead, Biden refused, fueled a proxy war, presided over Ukraine’s decimation, and then turned around and said that Ukraine isn’t ready to join NATO anyway. It was all a bait and switch with one goal only: use Ukraine to bleed Russia. Whoever went along with this epic disaster — and that sadly includes progressive lawmakers and media — should ask themselves if it was worth it.”

Hundreds of thousands of people would still be alive had Biden been willing to say this three years ago. Instead, Biden refused, fueled a proxy war, presided over Ukraine's decimation, and then turned around and said that Ukraine isn't ready to join NATO anyway.

It was all a… https://t.co/GeGxPJAeru

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) February 12, 2025

And now the US treasury secretary is meeting with Zelensky to negotiate a deal granting the US access to Ukraine’s considerable rare earth mineral wealth — not to continue the war, but to pay for a post-war “security shield” that the US would be supplying under President Trump’s plan. Ukraine has been scorched, shredded and spat on by its buddies in Washington, and now it’s being strip-mined.

Everyone who knew anything about anything said from the very beginning of the war that this would happen. Professor John Mearsheimer warned back in 2015 that the west was leading Ukraine down the primrose path and that the result would be Ukraine getting wrecked. Many other experts and analysts warned that NATO provocations would lead to disaster for Ukraine, long before the war began.

So much easily avoidable death. This war was provoked, and was provoked deliberately, solely to move a few pieces around on the grand chessboard to help the US secure planetary domination. The US and its allies refused off-ramp after off-ramp after off-ramp to this nightmare, both before Russia invaded and in the weeks immediately afterward.

Imagine being a Ukrainian fighting on the front lines right now as the US secretary of defense says you’re going to lose your territory and you’ll never join NATO while Kyiv signs over your nation’s rare earth mineral wealth to Washington. I would desert so hard.

Other US-aligned proxies take note: this is what happens when you put your country on the line for the advancement of US strategic agendas. I hope Taiwan is watching these events closely.

Report: Israel Says Gaza Hostage Deal Can Continue If Hamas Releases Three on Saturday
by Dave DeCamp@DecampDave #Gaza #Hamas #Israel #Palestinians #hostages https://t.co/W4GOrKFmLk

— Antiwar.com (@Antiwarcom) February 12, 2025

The other major story today is that Israel appears to be backing down on its ceasefire brinkmanship in Gaza. Barak Ravid reports for Axios that according to an unnamed Israeli official, Israel has told mediators that it will abide by the ceasefire terms as long as Hamas releases three hostages on Saturday as originally planned.

This would be a significant walk-back from the Netanyahu regime, who shortly beforehand had been insisting that Hamas must release “all” hostages on Saturday, which went against the terms of the ceasefire agreement.

Additionally, the aid requirements Hamas had been demanding now appear to be flooding in from Israel. Palestinian journalist Abubaker Abed reports from the Gaza Strip:

Thousands of tents and caravans have entered Gaza. The situation is becoming more stable, and aid has been flowing in consistently over the past hours.

The same is true in terms of medical aid as local reports indicate that at least five medical aid trucks have gotten into Gaza during the last 24 hours.

The ceasefire will likely hold as Hamas gears up to release the three Israeli prisoners on Saturday in exchange for dozens of Palestinian hostages.

Israel is beginning to allow a surge of aid instead of a trickle.

It’s hard to see this as anything other than a win for Hamas. The ceasefire became jeopardized when Hamas announced it would be delaying the scheduled release of Israeli hostages until Israel began abiding by the ceasefire, and Israeli officials have been admitting to the press that Israel was violating the ceasefire while Hamas was not. Hamas demanded Israel hold up its end of the bargain and Israel made some threats, but apparently eventually backed down. Perhaps Tel Aviv was just practicing the Israeli tradition of “shitat hamatzliah” — just trying to do whatever you want to do and seeing if you get away with it.

So all is not lost. Amidst all the madness of this world, peace may yet get a word in edgewise.

Arab mediators scramble to save Gaza ceasefire as Israel bolsters troop numbers

Arab mediators are scrambling to save the Gaza ceasefire as the Israeli military bolsters troop and tank deployments to the strip’s periphery in advance of the possibility the truce breaks down this weekend.

A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Wednesday to “discuss ways to end the current crisis”, the Palestinian militant group said. Meanwhile, Egyptian and Qatari mediators were working “intensively” to compel Israel to address Hamas’s new demands before Saturday’s scheduled release of three Israeli hostages, Egypt’s state-run al-Qahera television reported.

Mahmoud Mardawi, a senior Hamas official, said there were “positive signals” that the hostage handover would go ahead as planned, but added it had “yet to receive Israel’s commitment to implement the full terms of the deal, especially the humanitarian protocol”. There was no immediate comment from Israeli authorities. ...

Hamas’s spokesperson, Hazem Qassem, said on Wednesday that Israel was “evading implementation of several provisions of the ceasefire agreement” and reiterated the group’s stance that hostages could only be released through diplomatic means. “Our position is clear, and we will not accept the language of American and Israeli threats,” he said.

"The World After Gaza": Pankaj Mishra on Decolonization & the Return of "Rapacious Imperialism"

Jordan King Privately Tells Trump No to Ethnic Cleansing

After King Abdullah II of Jordan left the White House on Tuesday with the impression he was open to President Donald Trump’s idea to ethnically cleanse Gaza of Palestinians, the king took to X to say he had instead categorically rejected the idea in private with Trump.
“I reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank,” Abdullah wrote. “This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation should be the priority for all.”

The king said:

“Achieving just peace on the basis of the two-state solution is the way to ensure regional stability. This requires US leadership. President Trump is a man of peace. He was instrumental in securing the Gaza ceasefire. We look to US and all stakeholders in ensuring it holds.”

[Much more at the link. -js]

COL. Lawrence Wilkerson : Trump Emulates Biden

Architect of so-called Generals' Plan admits Israel's 'absolute failure' in Gaza

The architect of Israel's so-called Generals' Plan to depopulate northern Gaza has described the country's war in the enclave as an "absolute failure". The original plan, also known as the Eiland Plan after its creator Giora Eiland, a retired major general and former head of the Israeli National Security Council, was seen by Palestinians and rights groups as part of a long-term project of ethnic cleansing that would result in the restablishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza.

However, writing in a comment piece for Ynet, Eiland said that Israel had failed to achieve its aims in Gaza. "Israel has failed in three-and-a-half out of the four goals of the war: we have not demolished Hamas’ military power; we have not overthrown Hamas’ rule; we are not managing to return the residents... safely to their homes [in Israel], and as for the return of the abductees, the fourth goal – we have partially succeeded," he wrote.

He claimed Hamas had, conversely, "achieved all of its goals, chief among them: continuing its rule in Gaza."

Prof. John Mearsheimer : Who Makes US Foreign Policy?

Trump's ethnic cleansing plan for Gaza derails recovery of Red Sea shipping

US President Donald Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza has dashed hopes of a return to the Red Sea shipping route after more than a year of disruption, The Financial Times (FT) reported on 11 February.

According to shipping executives, Trump’s shocking announcement has raised fears that the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) could renew its threat against US and UK commercial ships crossing the Red Sea.

Trump announced this week that he would “clean out” Gaza of its roughly 2 million Palestinian inhabitants so the US can “buy and own” the devasted strip.

Jan Rindbo, chief executive of commodities shipping group Norden, told FT that Trump’s plan added “to this picture of turmoil and tension in the Middle East, and that could prolong the Red Sea issue.” The announcement increased “the risk that the Houthis [Yemen] are not just going to sit tight,” Rindbo went on to say.

Red Sea shipping has not picked up due to the persisting uncertainty. Shipping firms continue to prefer the longer and more expensive route that travels south around the Horn of Africa and then north to Europe. The number of transits through the Bab al-Mandab strait that enters the Red Sea past Yemen rose just four percent in the week following Yemen’s announcement, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Putin and Trump shock world. Zelensky downgraded. EU, UK got played

Trump Opens Up Talks with Putin to Finally End Bloody Ukraine War

Trump says he has spoken to Putin and agreed to negotiate Ukraine ceasefire

Donald Trump has said that he and Vladimir Putin have agreed to begin negotiations to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, later adding that it was unlikely Kyiv would win back all its territory or join Nato if a deal is to be reached. Trump also said that he was “OK” with Ukraine not having Nato membership and that it was “unlikely” that Ukraine would take much land back in the negotiations. ...

Trump said he was not closely concerned with which territories were handed over. “I’m just here to try and get peace,” he said. “I don’t care so much about anything other than I want to stop having millions of people killed.”

The rapid entry into negotiations with Russia and open demands that Ukraine concede land will have set alarm bells ringing in Kyiv and among its European allies that the Trump administration will offer minimal resistance to Putin’s demands in order to cut a deal as quickly as possible. ...

Earlier on Wednesday, the US negotiating position was outlined in Brussels, where secretary of defence Pete Hegseth delivered public remarks that Kyiv must acknowledge that it cannot win back all the land occupied by Russia. ... Though Hegseth set out some positions for achieving peace in Ukraine, few experts believe there has been any serious diplomatic progress. Russia, which has been gaining ground on the battlefield, remains keen to press home its advantage and has demanded that Ukraine cede further territory and in effect be demilitarised as part of a deal.

Russia’s demands could mirror those made on the eve of its full-scale invasion in 2021: that Ukraine adopt a neutral status and that Nato cease deploying weapons to member-states that joined after 1997, when the alliance began accepting former communist nations. That includes much of eastern Europe, including Poland and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Pete Hegseth's Shocking Message to NATO Allies Reveals Major U.S. Policy Shift

The headline writer forgot to characterize the "fears of a pro Russia stance" as the fears of lunatics.

Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as intelligence head despite fears of pro Russia stance

Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman who has been publicly questioned over her affinity for foreign dictators and promoting conspiracy theories, has been confirmed as director of national intelligence by the US Senate.

The Senate voted 52 to 48, with just one Republican – Mitch McConnell of Kentucky – voting against her confirmation.

After being sworn in at a ceremony in the Oval Office, Gabbard promised to “refocus our intelligence community” and repeated a common Donald Trump talking point that the US intelligence agencies had been used as political tools.

“Unfortunately, the American people have very little trust in the intelligence community, largely because they’ve seen the weaponization and politicization of an entity that is supposed to be purely focused on ensuring our national security,” she said.

How Musk Empire Benefits as He Slashes Fed. Gov't; Trump Cryptocurrency Schemes

Judge rules Trump can downsize federal government with worker buyouts

A federal judge has cleared the way for Donald Trump’s plan to downsize the federal workforce with a deferred resignation program.

It was a significant legal victory for the Republican president after a string of courtroom setbacks.

The US district judge George O’Toole Jr in Boston found that the unions didn’t have legal standing to challenge the program, commonly described as a buyout. He did not address the legality of the so-called “Fork in the Road” program itself.

Uline turned to Mexico to staff warehouses, but paid them a fraction of US workers, sources say

Uline, a Wisconsin-based office supply company owned by one of Donald Trump’s biggest financial backers, paid workers it brought from Mexico to work at its US warehouses just a fraction of what their US counterparts were paid, according to four sources who spoke to the Guardian.

The workers from Mexico earned per day about the same as their US counterparts were paid by the hour, according to the American and Mexican sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of nervousness about speaking out publicly against the company. One pay stub, which was seen by the Guardian, showed that a Mexican worker was paid about $38 per day, plus a weekly bonus of about $225 before taxes. Separately, they were also paid daily food expenses.

In comparison, a former warehouse worker, who is American, said based on his experience, Uline’s American warehouse staff were earning between $30 to $35 per hour when he left the company in 2023. The American workers also received health insurance and 401(k) benefits. Most Uline warehouse positions in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania currently pay between $25 and $35 per hour, with some offering as much as $38 per hour, according to postings on the job listing website Indeed.com.

The new revelations follow a story the Guardian published in December, about a so-called “shuttle program” at the company, which Uline used to bring workers from its warehouses in Mexico to its warehouses in the US, especially Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

The Mexican workers traveled to the US using tourist visas and visas meant for employees who enter the US temporarily to receive professional training, known as B1 visas, and not for regular work. Sources with direct knowledge of the matter alleged the Mexican employees stayed for one to six months and performed normal work at the company.

CNBC FREAKS As Inflation Stays High

Inflation picks up speed after Trump promised to ‘rapidly’ bring down prices

Inflation ticked higher in the US in January as Donald Trump returned to office with a pledge to rapidly reduce prices. The consumer price index rose by 3% last month – up slightly from December’s annualized 2.9% reading. The closely watched index rose 0.5% on a month-to-month basis, stronger than the 0.3% forecast by economists.

The so-called “core” index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose from an annualized rate of 3.2% in December to 3.3% in January.

Wednesday’s data appeared to rattle investors, with Wall Street coming under pressure. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average were each down by about 1% after New York opened for trading. The 10-year US treasury yield – a key barometer for US economic expectations – rose to about 4.629%. ...

Asked by Fox News when families will be able to “feel prices going down” this weekend, the president changed the subject and claimed other countries were taking advantage of the US.

Dem Leader 'CLUELESS' In Jon Stewart Confrontation

Trump names oil and gas advocate to lead agency that manages federal lands

Donald Trump has nominated a longtime oil and gas industry representative to oversee an agency that manages a quarter-billion acres of public land concentrated in western states.

Kathleen Sgamma, president of the Colorado-based oil industry trade group Western Energy Alliance, was named Bureau of Land Management director, a position with wide influence over lands used for energy production, grazing, recreation and other purposes. An MIT graduate, Sgamma has been a leading voice for the fossil fuel industry, calling for fewer drilling restrictions on public lands that produce about 10% of US oil and gas.

If confirmed by the Senate, she would be a key architect of Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda alongside the interior secretary Doug Burgum, who leads the newly formed National Energy Council that Trump says will establish US “energy dominance” around the world. Trump has vowed to boost US oil and gas drilling and move away from Joe Biden’s focus on the climate crisis.

The former interior secretary David Bernhardt relocated the land bureau’s headquarters to Colorado during Trump’s first term, leading to a spike in employee resignations. The bureau went four years under Trump without a confirmed director. The headquarters for the 10,000-person agency was moved back to Washington DC under Biden, who installed the Montana conservationist Tracy Stone-Manning at the bureau to lead his administration’s efforts to curb oil and gas production in the name of fighting the climate crisis.

Sgamma will be charged with reversing those policies, by putting into effect a series of orders issued last week by Burgum as part of Trump’s plan to sharply expand fossil fuel production.

Noaa imposes limits on scientists, sparking concerns over global forecasts

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) has placed onerous new restrictions on its scientists that people within the agency say could hamper the quality and availability of the world’s weather forecasts, among other key services. The new requirements have created a sense of unease within the agency, according to current and former high-level Noaascientists and officials the Guardian spoke with, and alarmed partners at European agencies.

“My expectation is that it’s going to be a crackdown on climate,” said a senior Noaa scientist. “People are just somewhere between disturbed and terrified.”

Last week Noaa’s office of research sent a message to all staff saying that “effective immediately”, the agency’s headquarters will implement a new layer of oversight over its scientists’ email and “virtual meetings” with foreign nationals. The new restrictions also require all Noaa employees and affiliates to document “all international engagements” in an internal spreadsheet for approval by a Trump political appointee on a case-by-case basis. “We haven’t stopped anything yet,” the scientist said, but “it’s a crazy amount of stuff to do. Working internationally is so routine, it’s just hardly thought of.” ...

The Noaa directive did not outright bar its scientists from continuing ongoing international collaboration, but the additional administrative burden appears to be especially onerous for the National Weather Service (NWS) – the division of Noaa that underpins all weather forecasting in the US and provides a constant stream of data on the atmosphere and oceans to the world for free as a public good.

Staff within Noaa are also preparing for further budgetary and staffing cuts which would place further strain on the agency. According to reporting from CBS, “current employees have been told to expect a 50% reduction in staff and budget cuts of 30%”.

California insurance plan asks private insurers for $1bn after wildfires

California’s home-insurance safety net does not have enough money to pay all of the claims from damage caused by the Los Angeles wildfires and has asked private insurers to contribute $1bn toward those claims.

All private insurers operating in California are required to contribute to the Fair plan, a plan of last resort established so all Californians would have access to fire insurance. More than 450,000 California homeowners got their insurance through the Fair plan in 2024 – more than double the number in 2020. As of 4 February, the plan had received more than 4,700 claims from the Palisades and Eaton fires, almost half of which were for “total losses”.

But, at a time when property insurers have already begun leaving the state, the record assessment may trigger insurers to stop doing business entirely in California. Although recovery efforts are still under way, the Los Angeles wildfires may have been the costliest disaster in California history, with estimated economic losses as high as $57bn.

“We must take action to improve the financial standing of the FAIR Plan and prevent this situation from recurring,” Ricardo Lara, California’s insurance commissioner, said in a press release. The assessment is the first time since the 1994 Northridge earthquake that the plan has called on private insurers to contribute additional funds to pay out claims.

The $1bn assessment will be carried by private insurers, according to their market share. In 2023, California’s largest insurers included State Farm, Farmers Insurance Group and CSAA Insurance, according to Moody’s, a credit rating service. Insurance companies are responsible for half of that assessment, according to the state’s insurance department, but may pass off the other half to customers as a temporary supplemental fee. The assessment cannot be passed off in future rate hikes.

Also of Interest

Here are some articles of interest, some which defied fair-use abstraction.

Trump Risks Repeating Biden’s Disasters in Gaza

Hamas Report to Mediators Accuses Israel of Pervasive Gaza Ceasefire Violations

Trump Tells Ukrainian War Party That The Game Is Up

Trump’s Actions Are Opportunities

Mr. Treasury Market Tells Fed It Is Even More Worried About Inflation

Trump’s Shock Doctrine: Uncertainty and the Repudiation of Contracts

Tulsi Gabbard BLASTS 'Weaponized' Intel Agency After SWEARING In; Bolton, Schumer ATTACK Her

A Little Night Music

Jimmy Reed - Wanna Be Loved

Jimmy Reed – Found Love

Jimmy Reed - You Don't Have To Go

Jimmy Reed - The Moon Is Rising

Jimmy Reed - Ain't That Lovin' You

Jimmy Reed – You Know You're Looking Good

Jimmy Reed - High And Lonesome

Jimmy Reed - Jump And Shout

Jimmy Reed - Boogie In The Dark

Jimmy Reed - Bright Lights Big City