The Olduvai Theory was proposed originally in 1989 by Richard C. Duncan and was originally called The pulse-transient theory of industrial civilization. In 1996 Duncan published a paper The Olduvai theory: falling towards a post-industrial stone-age era and the theory was subsequently renamed The Olduvai Theory. Olduvai Gorge is considered the cradle of mankind because of the oldest human skeletal remains being discovered there, although that is controversial.

The Olduvai Theory is based primarily on peak oil theory and postulates that mankind progressed outward and upwards from its birthplace in the Olduvai Gorge and reached the apex of civilization brought on by cheap energy, and with the advent of collapse brought on by peak oil, will be on the march back to the metaphorical Gorge and the hunter-gatherer way of life.

The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization

1. Pre-Industrial Phase [c. 3,000,000 BC to 1765]

• A = Tool making begins (c. 3,000,000 BC)
• B = Fire use begins (c. 1,000,000 BC)
• C = Neolithic Agricultural Revolution (c. 8,000 BC)
• D = Watt's steam engine, 1765

Interval D-E is a transition period.

2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated]

• E = Industrial Civilization is defined to begin in 1930 when the leading-edge value of energy-use per person reached 37% of its peak value.
• F = Peak of Industrial Civilization, c. 1978: confirmed by historic data published by BP, IEA, USCB, UN, etc.
• G = World average energy-use per person continues to fall, 1996
• H = Industrial Civilization is defined to end when energy-use per person shrinks to 37% of its peak value, forecast to occur by 2025. Life-expectancy (X) is estimated to be less than 100 years.

Interval H-I is a transition period.

3. Post-Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond]

• J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.

Source & Image Attribution

The timeline is contentious, one can argue that the dates could be moved back or forward, but the premise of the theory is that the collapse is inevitable after the planet runs out of cheap accessible oil.

Please note the date of the transition period (H) and the start of the decline, 2025, as it's pertinent to my conclusion below.

Many times in the past here at c99 I've written about narratives and how our realities are formed by the various learning experiences that we've encountered from birth to the present. Parents, schools, books, movies, newspapers, television, the internet are just some of the input that form our perceptions of reality. We've been inundated with it since we were kids, although one would have to had their head in the ground to not notice how the narratives have shifted into overdrive the last three or four years.

For example, this article delves into how our concepts of the future may be influenced by dystopian film and literature. Intentional or not, we've been groomed for dystopia.

Are fictional dystopias blocking us from better futures?

Do grim sci-fi scenarios crush our hopes for real-world growth? Author Michael Harris looks elsewhere to unblock the road to a better future.

Key Takeaways:

• Since the 1970s the prevailing vision of the future in popular culture has tended towards the dystopian.
• Commentators of all stripes — from celebrated movie critics to novelists and today’s "effective accelerationists" — have addressed the lack of blue-sky thinking.
• Michael Harris argues that dystopias are not a failing of their creators’ imaginations — and that fears about the future are rooted in the mechanisms of power and control.

Snip...

A lot of popular science fiction since the 1970s has depicted dark futures, to the point that they’ve become our default visions.

Snip...

If we are called on to not fear the future, it might be better to persuade us that we have a place in it, that it is ours to make. Show us a future we want to believe in.

Source

I find it uncanny that the date 2025 was marked as the beginning of the decline of civilization. That date sounds familiar, does it not?

My question is: As the year 2025 approaches and we find ourselves inundated with multiple crises, is this date a remarkable prediction by Richard Duncan or has present circumstances been manufactured around it? Is it organic or a result of forces using it as a guideline to set artificial societal realities to suit an agenda?

Disclaimer: I'm not so sure I agree with the premise of the Olduvai Theory. It leaves out the possibility that alternative or wholly new technologies may arise that would affect the march back to the Gorge, although it does propose points in the timeline (J, K, and L) that represent failed attempts to right the ship.

My point is to highlight the remarkable coincidence between the shown date of the start of the collapse (2025) and Agenda 2030, and how it relates to the narratives that pervade our modern world.

Has the Olduvai Theory become a basis for a narrative that suggests "fears about the future are rooted in the mechanisms of power and control" as argued by Michael Harris in the article above about dystopias?

References and Further Reading:
The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization (PDF)

Richard Duncan speaks on Peak Oil and Olduvai Theory

Olduvai Theory

The Oil We Eat (PDF)