Welcome to Saturday's Potluck - May 27, 2023

Submitted by studentofearth on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 6:24am

“Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist.”
Pablo Picasso

A picture can be worth a thousand words. Or the beginning of a new path of thought to explore.

This photo from a May 23, 2023 Taiwan News article Taiwan’s security takes center stage at G7 Hiroshima Summit has prompted a fresh look at colonization by Western powers. Is the history of Taiwan the beginning of a new phase of colonization? The shift from controlling trade interactions and transport to controlling territory for production of goods or extraction of resources.

England in the leading the pack. Dutch born president of the European Commission is second. English Common Wealth member nation's Canadian leader has followed his father's path into political leadership. United States of America has a Special Relation with England and its leader displaying increasing signs and symptoms of dementia. Japan, a relative newcomer as a colonial power, had to be forced back into the natural pecking order of power with a nuclear bombing campaign. Trying to keep up with the first row are France and Germany. The original developers of sea trade routes from Europe Portugal and Spain are not included the current gang of world leader. Now one of the questions is who or what really controls the gang and sets the long term plans?

The story begins in Asia with an addictive substance, in this time period - sugar. The business development steps were done under control of the colonizing power; expanding a market, controlling all phases of the supply line and utilizing military forces for security enforcement.

Dutch Formosa - Wikipedia a place to begin.

The Penghu (/ˈpʌŋˈhuː/,[1] Hokkien POJ: Phîⁿ-ô͘ or Phêⁿ-ô͘ ) or Pescadores Islands are an archipelago of 90 islands and islets in the Taiwan Strait, located approximately 50 km (31 mi) west from the main island of Taiwan across the Penghu Channel, covering an area of 141 square kilometers (54 sq mi). The archipelago collectively forms Penghu County of Taiwan and is the smallest county of Taiwan. The largest city is Magong, located on the largest island, which is also named Magong.

The Penghu islands first appear in the historical record during the Tang dynasty and were inhabited by Chinese people by the Southern Song dynasty, during which they were attached to Jinjiang County of Fujian.[2] The archipelago was formally incorporated as an administrative unit of China in 1281 under Tong'an County of Jiangzhe Province during the Yuan dynasty.[3] It continued to be controlled by Imperial China with brief European occupations by the Dutch (1622–1624) and French (1885), until it was ceded to the Japanese Empire in 1895. Since the end of World War II, Penghu has been governed by the Republic of China (ROC). Under the terms of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and the subsequent Taiwan Relations Act between the ROC and the United States, Penghu is defined and geographically acknowledged as part of Taiwan.[4][5]
...
The Dutch demanded that China open up ports in Fujian to Dutch trade. China refused, warning the Dutch that the Pescadores were Chinese territory. The Chinese governor of Fujian (Fukien), Shang Zhouzuo (Shang Chou-tso), demanded that the Dutch withdraw from the Pescadores to Formosa, where the Chinese would permit them to engage in trade. This led to a war between the Dutch and China between 1622 and 1624 which ended with the Chinese being successful in making the Dutch abandon the Pescadores and withdraw to Formosa.
...
However, the Dutch found out that, unlike tiny Southeast Asian kingdoms, China could not be bullied or intimidated by them. After Shang ordered them to withdraw to Formosa on 19 September 1622, the Dutch raided Amoy on October and November.[11] The Dutch intended to "induce the Chinese to trade by force or from fear." by raiding Fujian and Chinese shipping from the Pescadores.[12] Long artillery batteries were erected at Amoy in March 1622 by Colonel Li-kung-hwa as a defence against the Dutch.
...
The first order of business was to punish villages that had violently opposed the Dutch and unite the aborigines in allegiance with the Dutch East India Company (VOC).
...
One area not under their control was the north of the island, which from 1626 had been under Spanish sway, with their two settlements at Tamsui and Keelung. The fortification at Keelung was abandoned because the Spanish lacked the resources to maintain it, but Fort Santo Domingo in Tamsui was seen as a major obstacle to Dutch ambitions on the island and the region in general.

After failing to drive out the Spanish in 1641, the Dutch returned in 1642 with reinforcements of Dutch soldiers and aboriginal warriors in ships, managing to dislodge the small Spanish-Filipino contingent from their fortress and drive them from the island. Following this victory, the Dutch set about bringing the northern villages under their banner in a similar way to the pacification campaign carried out in the previous decade in the south.
...
Although sugar cane was a native crop of Taiwan, the indigenous people had never been able to make sugar granules from the raw sugar.[45] Chinese immigrants brought and introduce the technique to turn the raw sugar cane into sugar granules. Sugar became the most important export item as the main purpose of producing sugar was to export it to other countries.

Many of the sources vary in the presentation of a narrative mixed with facts. Still in the sorting out phase of research.

________

The importance of trade routes in Geopolitics.

Pepe Escobar: Eurasian Heartland Rises to Challenge the West
Sputnik Globe by Pepe Escobar May 26, 2023

Xi’s China is once again mirroring lessons from History. What’s happening now brings us back to the first half of the first millennium B.C., when the Persian Achaemenid empire established itself as the largest to date, stretching from India in the east and Central Asia in the northeast to Greece in the west and Egypt in the southwest.
For the first time in history, territories that spanned Asia, Africa and Europe were brought together; and that led to a boom in trade, culture and ethnic interactions (what BRI defines today as “people to people exchanges”).
That’s how we had the Hellenistic world first getting in touch with India and Central Asia – as they set up the first Greek settlements in Bactria (in today’s Afghanistan).
By the end of the first millennium B.C. all the way to the first millennium A.D. an immense area from the Pacific to the Atlantic – encompassing the Han Chinese empire, the Kushan kingdom, the Parthians and the Roman empire, among others – formed “a continuous belt of civilizations, states and cultures”, as Prof. Edvard Rtveladze of the Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan defined it.
...
So slightly less than 2,000 years ago, that was the first time in human history that the borders of several states and kingdoms were immediately adjacent to each other along no less than 11,400 km, from east to west. No wonder the fabled Ancient Silk Road – actually a maze of roads -, the first transcontinental thoroughfare, emerged at the time.

That was a direct consequence of a series of political, economic and cultural whirlwinds involving the peoples of Eurasia. History, in the high acceleration 21st century, is now retracing these steps

________

More on trade routes
The inside story of Russia-Iran-India connectivity The Cradle by Pepe Escobar May 23, 2023

Make no mistake about what the G7’s Hiroshima Communique is all about.

The setting: a city in neo-colony Japan nuclear-bombed 78 years ago by the United States, for which it made no excuses.

The message: the G7, actually G9 (augmented by two unelected Eurocrats) declares war – hybrid and otherwise – against BRICS+, which has 25 nations on its waiting list and counting.

The G7’s key strategic objective is the defeat of Russia, followed by the subjugation of China. For the G7/G9, these – real – powers are the main “global threats” to “freedom and democracy.”

The corollary is that the Global South must toe the line – or else. Call it a remix of the early 2000s “you’re either with us or against us.”

Meanwhile, in the real world – that of productive economies – the dogs of war bark while the New Silk Road caravans keep marching on.

The key New Silk Roads of emerging multipolarity are China’s ambitious, multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Russia-Iran-India International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC).
...
All about Chabahar

The recent $1.6 billion deal between Iran and Russia to build the 162-km long Rasht-Astara railway is an INSTC game-changer. Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazpash and Russia’s Minister of Transport Vialy Saveliev signed the deal in Tehran, in front of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and with Russian President Vladimir Putin attending on video conference.

Call it the marriage of Iran’s “Look East” with Russia’s “pivot to the East.” Both are now official policies.

Rasht is close to the Caspian Sea. Astara is on the border with Azerbaijan. Connecting them will be part of a Russia-Iran-Azerbaijan deal on railway and cargo transportation – solidifying the INSTC as a key connectivity corridor between South Asia and Northern Europe.
...
Russia, for its part, is now facing the Ukraine stalemate, relentless western sanctions hysteria, and serious trade restrictions to Eastern Europe. All that while Moscow consistently expands its trade with New Delhi.

So it is no wonder Moscow is now much more attentive to the INSTC. Last December, a key deal was clinched between Russian Railways and the national companies in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, and the Russians came up with a 20 percent discount for import-export containers going through the Russia-Kazakh border.

What matters most for Russia is that Chabahar operating at full speed reduces the cost of transporting goods from India by 20 percent. The Iranians fully understood the game, and started to heavily promote the Chabahar Free Trade-Industrial Zone to attract Russian investment. And that culminated in the Rasht-Astara deal.
...
China’s BRI, for its part, plays a parallel game. Beijing is heavily investing in the East-West transit route – also known as the Middle Corridor.

This BRI corridor goes from Xinjiang to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and then across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkiye, and further on to Eastern Europe – a total of 7,000 km, with a cargo journey of maximum 15 days.

________

Talking about the Specter of Conflict Hanging Over Taiwan with Xiangyu (in Taiwan) (1:15 min)
The New Atlas with guest Zhong Xiangyu, a Taiwanese resident who focuses on cross straight relations.

________

Team Biden Antagonizing Putin - Alastair Crooke fmr Brit ambassador (24:14 min) May 25, 2023
Also discuss US control of Italy since WWII

The the other livestream videos this week by Judge Napolitano channel ongoing discussions regarding current Ukraine/Russia conflict. the interviews are generally posted on Monday through Thursday if would like to view them in amore timely manner.

________

What is on your mind today?

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Comments

Submitted by QMS on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 7:47am

Good morning

Thanks for the OT. It is good to see the BRI and INSTC trade routes building thru out
the Eurasian continent. The G7 thugs may not like it, but the world does not spin
on their selfish axis.

Hope all is well on the Oregon ranch!

—

question everything

Submitted by studentofearth on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 8:45am

Good Morning - next day

@QMS Ranch is doing well. Long days of daylight in spring and early summer always bring changes faster than I can keep up. Plants are growing, birds singing, frogs croaking and young creatures exploring their possibilities. About late August when nature slows down I generally catch up with the basics.

The world in in a continual flux of change. Magnetic North has sped up its changed and it appears a new re adjustment of human societies is in the works.

—

Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

Submitted by enhydra lutris on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 11:09am

Good morning soe. Thanks for the OT and its content.

That is a really great picture from the G7. Back in the latter half of the 2000s I had a huge wall map of the Caspian region in my workspace, for various reasons, and learned to keep an eye on it and the states around it. I really wish I still had it.

Alistair Crooke referred to an area that he said he called "The Stans" and I thought "who doesn't", having learned that term ages ago. Interestingly, Pepe Escobar, also long ago referred to the area to the immediate west of the Caspian and the area between it and the Black Sea as "Pipelineistan", which was appropriate and telling, as often pipelines are as valuable as what they carry. (That area, FWIW, includes Georgia, which we color revolutioned, Chechnya, which we revolutionized, Azerbaijan with its port of Baku, a terminal of the Tbilsi-Baku-Ceyhan pipeline which was built to get Kazakh oil out of the region without going through Russia or Iran, etc.) Kazakhstan, also seems to be developing a lot of wind energy sources, freeing up yet more of it's petro resources for export.

The east coast area is, of course part of both the BRI and INSTC routes. The whole damned Caspian region/area is full of oil and gas, rail and ship routes and, of course, pipelines. In addition, Kazakhstan produces shitloads of wheat, or did, much of which it used to convert into pasta for export. Ripples from the area echo far and wide, including Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. (The potential for a hellaciously valuable pipeline from Uzbekistan to Pakistan/India was, many long ages ago, discussed in one of the Congressional committees with no less person than the head of Unocal testifying that it, unfortunately, could never be implemented as long as the Taliban was running Afghanistan, fwiw.)
Anyhow, now, more than ever, with the Arab States, India, Russia and China becoming a new "pole" in a bi/multi polar world, it is an area well worth keeping an eye on. If I had a clipping service I would definitely make sure that it was part of it.

be well and have a good one

—

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Submitted by studentofearth on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 9:06am

Knowledge of Stans was composed of fragmented bits of

@enhydra lutris information collected over the years, until I came across Escobar's writings on "Pipelineistan". The vibrancy of past interrelationship of cultures and how changes are shaping world future. Always appreciate the tidbits of information you provide.

That is a really great picture from the G7. Back in the latter half of the 2000s I had a huge wall map of the Caspian region in my workspace, for various reasons, and learned to keep an eye on it and the states around it. I really wish I still had it. Alistair Crooke referred to an area that he said he called "The Stans" and I thought "who doesn't", having learned that term ages ago. Interestingly, Pepe Escobar, also long ago referred to the area to the immediate west of the Caspian and the area between it and the Black Sea as "Pipelineistan", which was appropriate and telling, as often pipelines are as valuable as what they carry. (That area, FWIW, includes Georgia, which we color revolutioned, Chechnya, which we revolutionized, Azerbaijan with its port of Baku, a terminal of the Tbilsi-Baku-Ceyhan pipeline which was built to get Kazakh oil out of the region without going through Russia or Iran, etc.) Kazakhstan, also seems to be developing a lot of wind energy sources, freeing up yet more of it's petro resources for export. The east coast area is, of course part of both the BRI and INSTC routes. The whole damned Caspian region/area is full of oil and gas, rail and ship routes and, of course, pipelines. In addition, Kazakhstan produces shitloads of wheat, or did, much of which it used to convert into pasta for export. Ripples from the area echo far and wide, including Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. (The potential for a hellaciously valuable pipeline from Uzbekistan to Pakistan/India was, many long ages ago, discussed in one of the Congressional committees with no less person than the head of Unocal testifying that it, unfortunately, could never be implemented as long as the Taliban was running Afghanistan, fwiw.) Anyhow, now, more than ever, with the Arab States, India, Russia and China becoming a new "pole" in a bi/multi polar world, it is an area well worth keeping an eye on. If I had a clipping service I would definitely make sure that it was part of it. be well and have a good one

—

Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

Submitted by ggersh on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 11:56am

The appetite for a hegemon is over. the empire needs to go

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/27/an-appetite-for-a-world-wi...

The fragmenting world order was visible at the Group of Seven (G7) summit of rich democracies in Hiroshima last weekend. It was attended by leaders from India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea and Australia, who were invited by the host Japan. A surprise guest was President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine. President Lula of Brazil was one of the few who didn’t meet him.

The G7 communique’s pledge to de-risk, not decouple, economic relations with China was dismissed by Chinese spokesmen as tantamount to containment. At a China-Russian summit during the week their recent commitment to a limitless partnership was reaffirmed, undermining G7 hopes that China might play a more active role in Ukraine peacemaking.

The preoccupations of the European Union and United States with the Ukraine war and Chinese trade are not shared by the rest of the world. The war is regarded as mainly a European question, while Latin American, Asian, Middle Eastern and African states want to keep their economic and political relations with China open, and not subject to a new round of richer country sanctions.

Realisation that the international liberal order and institutions is fragmenting and coming to an end is obscured by the fog of war, by a re-assertive US military and by strategic hegemony here in Europe.

In that light a recent provocative and contrarian speech by Fiona Hill, a former national security adviser on Russia to Donald Trump, helps reframe and better understand the issues at stake from within the Washington policy bubble. Hill, who grew up and was educated in Britain and then trained in the US, broke with Trump to testify against him. He dismissed her as “a Deep State stiff with a nice accent”. She is now in the Brookings think tank and heading back to the UK.

The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone
— Fiona Hill

Speaking in the Estonian capital Tallinn, she argued that what we are living through is not a proxy war between the US, or a collective West, and Russia. “In the current geopolitical arena, the war is now effectively the reverse – a proxy for a rebellion by Russia and the ‘rest’ against the United States. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone.”

Middle powers or swing states in the major world regions, like those invited to Hiroshima, seek to cut the US down to size, assert their own interests and values in their neighbourhoods, and exert more influence on world affairs. “They want to decide, not be told what’s in their interest. In short, in 2023, we hear a resounding no to US domination and see a marked appetite for a world without a hegemon,” Hill said.

From this rebellion there is emerging a new pattern of limited partnerships and mini-lateralism, whose fragments are perhaps trending towards the more balanced and equal multipolarity that China and Russia advocate for.

Hill recognises the appeal of such rhetoric and acknowledges the loss of US credibility in most world regions after US unilateral action in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq. That has undermined trust in its actions. “For some, the US is a flawed international actor with its own domestic problems to attend to. For others, the US is a new form of imperial state that ignores the concerns of others and throws its military weight around.”

A new vocabulary to describe the emerging world is needed, she argues. “Why in fact are they labelled ... the ‘Global South’, having previously been called the Third World or the Developing World? Why are they even the ‘rest’ of the world? They are the world, representing 6.5 billion people. Our terminology reeks of colonialism.”

This is a salutary perspective from which to understand contemporary world change. The US and the EU recognise it is happening as they canvass support for policy and trade advantage, and compete with China on new forms of aid. Many states sympathise with the African leader who said you get a bridge from China, but a lecture from the US or the EU.

Securing support from them for de-risking trade with China will be difficult, because they see the choices involved and fear being caught in a superpower struggle with the US involving economic sanctions. The EU has a common interest with other world regions to keep relations with China open, even with more political rivalry in play. Ukraine also realises it must compete with Russia for worldwide support.

—

I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

Submitted by snoopydawg on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 12:28pm

Wow some truth from Fiona?

@ggersh

The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone
— Fiona Hill

Speaking in the Estonian capital Tallinn, she argued that what we are living through is not a proxy war between the US, or a collective West, and Russia. “In the current geopolitical arena, the war is now effectively the reverse – a proxy for a rebellion by Russia and the ‘rest’ against the United States. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone.”

Maybe she should have thought about this before she lied her ass off to congress during the first impeachment. Of all the things Pelosi could have impeached Trump for she picked the one thing to make sure to manufacture consent for war against Russia.

Btw Rachel who still says that she is anti war is going to host a convention for Lockheed Martin… go figure. She wrote a book about being anti war, but she is one of the major players that manufactured consent for war against the country with the most nuclear weapons…

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/27/an-appetite-for-a-world-wi... The fragmenting world order was visible at the Group of Seven (G7) summit of rich democracies in Hiroshima last weekend. It was attended by leaders from India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea and Australia, who were invited by the host Japan. A surprise guest was President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine. President Lula of Brazil was one of the few who didn’t meet him. The G7 communique’s pledge to de-risk, not decouple, economic relations with China was dismissed by Chinese spokesmen as tantamount to containment. At a China-Russian summit during the week their recent commitment to a limitless partnership was reaffirmed, undermining G7 hopes that China might play a more active role in Ukraine peacemaking. The preoccupations of the European Union and United States with the Ukraine war and Chinese trade are not shared by the rest of the world. The war is regarded as mainly a European question, while Latin American, Asian, Middle Eastern and African states want to keep their economic and political relations with China open, and not subject to a new round of richer country sanctions. Realisation that the international liberal order and institutions is fragmenting and coming to an end is obscured by the fog of war, by a re-assertive US military and by strategic hegemony here in Europe. In that light a recent provocative and contrarian speech by Fiona Hill, a former national security adviser on Russia to Donald Trump, helps reframe and better understand the issues at stake from within the Washington policy bubble. Hill, who grew up and was educated in Britain and then trained in the US, broke with Trump to testify against him. He dismissed her as “a Deep State stiff with a nice accent”. She is now in the Brookings think tank and heading back to the UK. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone — Fiona Hill Speaking in the Estonian capital Tallinn, she argued that what we are living through is not a proxy war between the US, or a collective West, and Russia. “In the current geopolitical arena, the war is now effectively the reverse – a proxy for a rebellion by Russia and the ‘rest’ against the United States. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone.” Middle powers or swing states in the major world regions, like those invited to Hiroshima, seek to cut the US down to size, assert their own interests and values in their neighbourhoods, and exert more influence on world affairs. “They want to decide, not be told what’s in their interest. In short, in 2023, we hear a resounding no to US domination and see a marked appetite for a world without a hegemon,” Hill said. From this rebellion there is emerging a new pattern of limited partnerships and mini-lateralism, whose fragments are perhaps trending towards the more balanced and equal multipolarity that China and Russia advocate for. Hill recognises the appeal of such rhetoric and acknowledges the loss of US credibility in most world regions after US unilateral action in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq. That has undermined trust in its actions. “For some, the US is a flawed international actor with its own domestic problems to attend to. For others, the US is a new form of imperial state that ignores the concerns of others and throws its military weight around.” A new vocabulary to describe the emerging world is needed, she argues. “Why in fact are they labelled ... the ‘Global South’, having previously been called the Third World or the Developing World? Why are they even the ‘rest’ of the world? They are the world, representing 6.5 billion people. Our terminology reeks of colonialism.” This is a salutary perspective from which to understand contemporary world change. The US and the EU recognise it is happening as they canvass support for policy and trade advantage, and compete with China on new forms of aid. Many states sympathise with the African leader who said you get a bridge from China, but a lecture from the US or the EU. Securing support from them for de-risking trade with China will be difficult, because they see the choices involved and fear being caught in a superpower struggle with the US involving economic sanctions. The EU has a common interest with other world regions to keep relations with China open, even with more political rivalry in play. Ukraine also realises it must compete with Russia for worldwide support.

—

Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.

Submitted by randtntx on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 2:54pm

When the neocons

@snoopydawg , have no choice but to start walking everything back, you know the writing is on the wall. It becomes more apparent every day that a good portion of the rest of the world has had it with the US. Hill's statements throughout the article are an exercise in walking back.

The rest of the world is seeing that the emperor has no clothes. Still, the whole exercise is quite an amazing thing to behold. Pretty much everything Hill said in that article is gob-smacking.
This is not the script you generally hear from D.C.

Submitted by randtntx on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 2:55pm

Great article

@ggersh , thanks for posting.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/27/an-appetite-for-a-world-wi... The fragmenting world order was visible at the Group of Seven (G7) summit of rich democracies in Hiroshima last weekend. It was attended by leaders from India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea and Australia, who were invited by the host Japan. A surprise guest was President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine. President Lula of Brazil was one of the few who didn’t meet him. The G7 communique’s pledge to de-risk, not decouple, economic relations with China was dismissed by Chinese spokesmen as tantamount to containment. At a China-Russian summit during the week their recent commitment to a limitless partnership was reaffirmed, undermining G7 hopes that China might play a more active role in Ukraine peacemaking. The preoccupations of the European Union and United States with the Ukraine war and Chinese trade are not shared by the rest of the world. The war is regarded as mainly a European question, while Latin American, Asian, Middle Eastern and African states want to keep their economic and political relations with China open, and not subject to a new round of richer country sanctions. Realisation that the international liberal order and institutions is fragmenting and coming to an end is obscured by the fog of war, by a re-assertive US military and by strategic hegemony here in Europe. In that light a recent provocative and contrarian speech by Fiona Hill, a former national security adviser on Russia to Donald Trump, helps reframe and better understand the issues at stake from within the Washington policy bubble. Hill, who grew up and was educated in Britain and then trained in the US, broke with Trump to testify against him. He dismissed her as “a Deep State stiff with a nice accent”. She is now in the Brookings think tank and heading back to the UK. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone — Fiona Hill Speaking in the Estonian capital Tallinn, she argued that what we are living through is not a proxy war between the US, or a collective West, and Russia. “In the current geopolitical arena, the war is now effectively the reverse – a proxy for a rebellion by Russia and the ‘rest’ against the United States. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone.” Middle powers or swing states in the major world regions, like those invited to Hiroshima, seek to cut the US down to size, assert their own interests and values in their neighbourhoods, and exert more influence on world affairs. “They want to decide, not be told what’s in their interest. In short, in 2023, we hear a resounding no to US domination and see a marked appetite for a world without a hegemon,” Hill said. From this rebellion there is emerging a new pattern of limited partnerships and mini-lateralism, whose fragments are perhaps trending towards the more balanced and equal multipolarity that China and Russia advocate for. Hill recognises the appeal of such rhetoric and acknowledges the loss of US credibility in most world regions after US unilateral action in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq. That has undermined trust in its actions. “For some, the US is a flawed international actor with its own domestic problems to attend to. For others, the US is a new form of imperial state that ignores the concerns of others and throws its military weight around.” A new vocabulary to describe the emerging world is needed, she argues. “Why in fact are they labelled ... the ‘Global South’, having previously been called the Third World or the Developing World? Why are they even the ‘rest’ of the world? They are the world, representing 6.5 billion people. Our terminology reeks of colonialism.” This is a salutary perspective from which to understand contemporary world change. The US and the EU recognise it is happening as they canvass support for policy and trade advantage, and compete with China on new forms of aid. Many states sympathise with the African leader who said you get a bridge from China, but a lecture from the US or the EU. Securing support from them for de-risking trade with China will be difficult, because they see the choices involved and fear being caught in a superpower struggle with the US involving economic sanctions. The EU has a common interest with other world regions to keep relations with China open, even with more political rivalry in play. Ukraine also realises it must compete with Russia for worldwide support.

Submitted by enhydra lutris on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 7:14pm

Thanks, gg, good stuff.

@ggersh @ggersh

be well and have a good one

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/27/an-appetite-for-a-world-wi... The fragmenting world order was visible at the Group of Seven (G7) summit of rich democracies in Hiroshima last weekend. It was attended by leaders from India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea and Australia, who were invited by the host Japan. A surprise guest was President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine. President Lula of Brazil was one of the few who didn’t meet him. The G7 communique’s pledge to de-risk, not decouple, economic relations with China was dismissed by Chinese spokesmen as tantamount to containment. At a China-Russian summit during the week their recent commitment to a limitless partnership was reaffirmed, undermining G7 hopes that China might play a more active role in Ukraine peacemaking. The preoccupations of the European Union and United States with the Ukraine war and Chinese trade are not shared by the rest of the world. The war is regarded as mainly a European question, while Latin American, Asian, Middle Eastern and African states want to keep their economic and political relations with China open, and not subject to a new round of richer country sanctions. Realisation that the international liberal order and institutions is fragmenting and coming to an end is obscured by the fog of war, by a re-assertive US military and by strategic hegemony here in Europe. In that light a recent provocative and contrarian speech by Fiona Hill, a former national security adviser on Russia to Donald Trump, helps reframe and better understand the issues at stake from within the Washington policy bubble. Hill, who grew up and was educated in Britain and then trained in the US, broke with Trump to testify against him. He dismissed her as “a Deep State stiff with a nice accent”. She is now in the Brookings think tank and heading back to the UK. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone — Fiona Hill Speaking in the Estonian capital Tallinn, she argued that what we are living through is not a proxy war between the US, or a collective West, and Russia. “In the current geopolitical arena, the war is now effectively the reverse – a proxy for a rebellion by Russia and the ‘rest’ against the United States. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone.” Middle powers or swing states in the major world regions, like those invited to Hiroshima, seek to cut the US down to size, assert their own interests and values in their neighbourhoods, and exert more influence on world affairs. “They want to decide, not be told what’s in their interest. In short, in 2023, we hear a resounding no to US domination and see a marked appetite for a world without a hegemon,” Hill said. From this rebellion there is emerging a new pattern of limited partnerships and mini-lateralism, whose fragments are perhaps trending towards the more balanced and equal multipolarity that China and Russia advocate for. Hill recognises the appeal of such rhetoric and acknowledges the loss of US credibility in most world regions after US unilateral action in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq. That has undermined trust in its actions. “For some, the US is a flawed international actor with its own domestic problems to attend to. For others, the US is a new form of imperial state that ignores the concerns of others and throws its military weight around.” A new vocabulary to describe the emerging world is needed, she argues. “Why in fact are they labelled ... the ‘Global South’, having previously been called the Third World or the Developing World? Why are they even the ‘rest’ of the world? They are the world, representing 6.5 billion people. Our terminology reeks of colonialism.” This is a salutary perspective from which to understand contemporary world change. The US and the EU recognise it is happening as they canvass support for policy and trade advantage, and compete with China on new forms of aid. Many states sympathise with the African leader who said you get a bridge from China, but a lecture from the US or the EU. Securing support from them for de-risking trade with China will be difficult, because they see the choices involved and fear being caught in a superpower struggle with the US involving economic sanctions. The EU has a common interest with other world regions to keep relations with China open, even with more political rivalry in play. Ukraine also realises it must compete with Russia for worldwide support.

—

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Submitted by studentofearth on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 10:11am

Great article on a different view point

@ggersh on world events. Found the lecture on youtube.

Fiona Hill's Lennart Meri Lecture 2023 (34 min - started after intro) (transcript of lecture)

On a different note. Read the book China Called Me, My Life Inside the Chinese Revolution within the last couple of years.Through his autobiography the subtle methods various countries ability to shape the destiny of another's is on display. British pattern of selecting a leadership class from the native population of a colony, encouraging them to vacation in England, send their children to Boarding schools in England and an adoption of English law creates the opportunity for longstanding influence of London financiers and Royalists.

The Transantlantic community appears to be continuing the tradition with non-governmental organization (NGO) using the United Nation (UN) terms of understanding.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/27/an-appetite-for-a-world-wi... The fragmenting world order was visible at the Group of Seven (G7) summit of rich democracies in Hiroshima last weekend. It was attended by leaders from India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea and Australia, who were invited by the host Japan. A surprise guest was President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine. President Lula of Brazil was one of the few who didn’t meet him. The G7 communique’s pledge to de-risk, not decouple, economic relations with China was dismissed by Chinese spokesmen as tantamount to containment. At a China-Russian summit during the week their recent commitment to a limitless partnership was reaffirmed, undermining G7 hopes that China might play a more active role in Ukraine peacemaking. The preoccupations of the European Union and United States with the Ukraine war and Chinese trade are not shared by the rest of the world. The war is regarded as mainly a European question, while Latin American, Asian, Middle Eastern and African states want to keep their economic and political relations with China open, and not subject to a new round of richer country sanctions. Realisation that the international liberal order and institutions is fragmenting and coming to an end is obscured by the fog of war, by a re-assertive US military and by strategic hegemony here in Europe. In that light a recent provocative and contrarian speech by Fiona Hill, a former national security adviser on Russia to Donald Trump, helps reframe and better understand the issues at stake from within the Washington policy bubble. Hill, who grew up and was educated in Britain and then trained in the US, broke with Trump to testify against him. He dismissed her as “a Deep State stiff with a nice accent”. She is now in the Brookings think tank and heading back to the UK. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone — Fiona Hill Speaking in the Estonian capital Tallinn, she argued that what we are living through is not a proxy war between the US, or a collective West, and Russia. “In the current geopolitical arena, the war is now effectively the reverse – a proxy for a rebellion by Russia and the ‘rest’ against the United States. The war in Ukraine is perhaps the event that makes the passing of pax Americana apparent to everyone.” Middle powers or swing states in the major world regions, like those invited to Hiroshima, seek to cut the US down to size, assert their own interests and values in their neighbourhoods, and exert more influence on world affairs. “They want to decide, not be told what’s in their interest. In short, in 2023, we hear a resounding no to US domination and see a marked appetite for a world without a hegemon,” Hill said. From this rebellion there is emerging a new pattern of limited partnerships and mini-lateralism, whose fragments are perhaps trending towards the more balanced and equal multipolarity that China and Russia advocate for. Hill recognises the appeal of such rhetoric and acknowledges the loss of US credibility in most world regions after US unilateral action in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Iraq. That has undermined trust in its actions. “For some, the US is a flawed international actor with its own domestic problems to attend to. For others, the US is a new form of imperial state that ignores the concerns of others and throws its military weight around.” A new vocabulary to describe the emerging world is needed, she argues. “Why in fact are they labelled ... the ‘Global South’, having previously been called the Third World or the Developing World? Why are they even the ‘rest’ of the world? They are the world, representing 6.5 billion people. Our terminology reeks of colonialism.” This is a salutary perspective from which to understand contemporary world change. The US and the EU recognise it is happening as they canvass support for policy and trade advantage, and compete with China on new forms of aid. Many states sympathise with the African leader who said you get a bridge from China, but a lecture from the US or the EU. Securing support from them for de-risking trade with China will be difficult, because they see the choices involved and fear being caught in a superpower struggle with the US involving economic sanctions. The EU has a common interest with other world regions to keep relations with China open, even with more political rivalry in play. Ukraine also realises it must compete with Russia for worldwide support.

—

Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

Submitted by snoopydawg on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 12:23pm

Will WWW3 start in earnest in 3 weeks?

Not the first time I’ve heard that the huge upcoming NATO exercises in Europe are just a ruse for attacking Russia.

BRAVADO BEFORE CAPITULATION – WILL RUSSIAN DEFEAT OF US PATRIOT MISSILE BE FOLLOWED BY “UKRAINIAN F-16” ATTACK DURING THE NATO “AIR DEFENDER 23” EXERCISE ON JUNE 12

There is a grave risk that in three weeks’ time US and NATO forces will attempt direct combat against Russia.

The operational plan is to strike from Romanian airspace in the south and the Baltic states in the north, in camouflage of the NATO exercise called “Air Defender 23”, and under cover of US F-16 fighter aircraft purportedly operated by Ukrainian pilots but fuelled, directed, and guarded by more than two hundred US and NATO aircraft, including the most advanced US air war fighter, the F-35.

“This [is] the largest deployment exercise since the foundation of NATO”, according to the cover story published by NATO headquarters. “ Commanded at US bases in Germany, ostensibly led by German officers, a Bundeswehr “fact sheet” claims “100 [US] Air National Guard aircraft from 35 different states will make the leap across the Atlantic to participate in Air Defender 2023. In addition to the world’s most modern jets, the F35, more than 20 different types of aircraft and Airmen from 24 nations will practice air warfare operations together over Germany, but also over eastern Europe on the NATO border. Among them Eurofighter, F18, F16, A10, [Saab] Gripen jets.”

*****
In design since the start of the Russian Special Military Operation in February 2022, this plan of US and NATO air operations against Russia follows the defeat of the Ukrainian ground forces at Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and the strategic defeat of the US Patriot missile system at Kiev by the Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile on May 16.

The use of NATO exercises to conceal active attacks on Russian targets was first demonstrated last September when the Nord Stream pipelines were blown up following the BALTOPS naval exercise. More recently, on May 13 a US-directed ambush of Russian aircraft was rehearsed when an Su-34 fighter-bomber, an SU-35 air-defence escort, and two Mi8 helicopters were hit simultaneously and downed in Russian airspace, over Bryansk region.

*****
The post-operational Russian intelligence reports of May 18 and May 20 indicate “a multifunctional radar station, as well as five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured by the United States were hit and completely destroyed.”

In the days following, Russian military operations have intensified long-range missile attacks targeting anti-aircraft defence complexes, rail marshalling yards, fuel and ammunition stocks, equipment parks, and reserve assembly areas in the west of the Ukraine, including Khmelnitsky, Rivne, Zhitomir, and Lvov. The scope of targeting goes beyond the Electric War of previous months, a NATO forces veteran comments. “It’s now a full-on campaign. Now that the US/NATO air defence has proven to be useless against Russian strike capabilities, I expect them to take to the sky. It’s all they have left.”

*****
If Russian military intelligence moves from suspicion to conviction that air attacks by US and NATO aircraft are being readied under cover of the Ukrainian F-16s, Moscow sources anticipate “asymmetrical response”. The sources believe that if and when Poland or Romania allows a “Ukrainian” F-16 to take off from a local airfield to attack Russian forces, Polish and Romanian air bases will become Russian missile targets, just as the Patriot batteries were. US and NATO air support for such an F-16 sortie, including AWACS and RC-135 warfighting systems in the air at the same time, would become collateral targets.

Russia put its nuclear defense program on high alert last year when NATO played its war games close to their borders and they have not stood down from it. Recently Lavrov said that the Atlantic Ocean isn’t big enough to deter a Russian attack….Russia has been warning about crossing red lines and Biden has kept crossing them. Russia promised that if the Patriot missiles arrived in Ukraine that they would be destroyed. Promise made, promise kept. They are saying the same thing about F-16 jets…do we need to find out if they will keep that promise too? Ukraine cannot win the war without NATO support which means boots on the ground and jets in the air.

Obama killed what was left of the anti war movement and now those people who used to be against wars and the military budget sucking up the money are itching for NATO to get involved and drive Russia out of Ukraine. They should really consider what they are asking for!

—

Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.

Submitted by Blue Republic on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 9:40am

yeah...

@snoopydawg

Massive NATO exercises to coincide with the Ukraine 'big offensive' - what could possibly go wrong?

Maybe the Russians take the initiative and go offensive first?

Can't help but think of Stalingrad - Red Army on the defensive, falling back and falling back until they didn't. And when they did counter attack it was decisive and the Germans on the defensive all the way to Berlin.

Simplicius' latest well worth checking out (as usual):

Latest Headlines Digest - The West's Tone Drastically Shifts

.

Not the first time I’ve heard that the huge upcoming NATO exercises in Europe are just a ruse for attacking Russia.

BRAVADO BEFORE CAPITULATION – WILL RUSSIAN DEFEAT OF US PATRIOT MISSILE BE FOLLOWED BY “UKRAINIAN F-16” ATTACK DURING THE NATO “AIR DEFENDER 23” EXERCISE ON JUNE 12

There is a grave risk that in three weeks’ time US and NATO forces will attempt direct combat against Russia.

The operational plan is to strike from Romanian airspace in the south and the Baltic states in the north, in camouflage of the NATO exercise called “Air Defender 23”, and under cover of US F-16 fighter aircraft purportedly operated by Ukrainian pilots but fuelled, directed, and guarded by more than two hundred US and NATO aircraft, including the most advanced US air war fighter, the F-35.

“This [is] the largest deployment exercise since the foundation of NATO”, according to the cover story published by NATO headquarters. “ Commanded at US bases in Germany, ostensibly led by German officers, a Bundeswehr “fact sheet” claims “100 [US] Air National Guard aircraft from 35 different states will make the leap across the Atlantic to participate in Air Defender 2023. In addition to the world’s most modern jets, the F35, more than 20 different types of aircraft and Airmen from 24 nations will practice air warfare operations together over Germany, but also over eastern Europe on the NATO border. Among them Eurofighter, F18, F16, A10, [Saab] Gripen jets.”

*****
In design since the start of the Russian Special Military Operation in February 2022, this plan of US and NATO air operations against Russia follows the defeat of the Ukrainian ground forces at Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and the strategic defeat of the US Patriot missile system at Kiev by the Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile on May 16.

The use of NATO exercises to conceal active attacks on Russian targets was first demonstrated last September when the Nord Stream pipelines were blown up following the BALTOPS naval exercise. More recently, on May 13 a US-directed ambush of Russian aircraft was rehearsed when an Su-34 fighter-bomber, an SU-35 air-defence escort, and two Mi8 helicopters were hit simultaneously and downed in Russian airspace, over Bryansk region.

*****
The post-operational Russian intelligence reports of May 18 and May 20 indicate “a multifunctional radar station, as well as five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured by the United States were hit and completely destroyed.”

In the days following, Russian military operations have intensified long-range missile attacks targeting anti-aircraft defence complexes, rail marshalling yards, fuel and ammunition stocks, equipment parks, and reserve assembly areas in the west of the Ukraine, including Khmelnitsky, Rivne, Zhitomir, and Lvov. The scope of targeting goes beyond the Electric War of previous months, a NATO forces veteran comments. “It’s now a full-on campaign. Now that the US/NATO air defence has proven to be useless against Russian strike capabilities, I expect them to take to the sky. It’s all they have left.”

*****
If Russian military intelligence moves from suspicion to conviction that air attacks by US and NATO aircraft are being readied under cover of the Ukrainian F-16s, Moscow sources anticipate “asymmetrical response”. The sources believe that if and when Poland or Romania allows a “Ukrainian” F-16 to take off from a local airfield to attack Russian forces, Polish and Romanian air bases will become Russian missile targets, just as the Patriot batteries were. US and NATO air support for such an F-16 sortie, including AWACS and RC-135 warfighting systems in the air at the same time, would become collateral targets.

Russia put its nuclear defense program on high alert last year when NATO played its war games close to their borders and they have not stood down from it. Recently Lavrov said that the Atlantic Ocean isn’t big enough to deter a Russian attack….Russia has been warning about crossing red lines and Biden has kept crossing them. Russia promised that if the Patriot missiles arrived in Ukraine that they would be destroyed. Promise made, promise kept. They are saying the same thing about F-16 jets…do we need to find out if they will keep that promise too? Ukraine cannot win the war without NATO support which means boots on the ground and jets in the air.

Obama killed what was left of the anti war movement and now those people who used to be against wars and the military budget sucking up the money are itching for NATO to get involved and drive Russia out of Ukraine. They should really consider what they are asking for!

Submitted by snoopydawg on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 1:46pm

Glad you posted this

@Blue Republic

I look forward to his updates because he always packs them with lots of information that I don’t see elsewhere. His substack is the only one I pay for because of how much work he puts in his writing.

—

Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.

Submitted by Blue Republic on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 9:41am

yeah...

@snoopydawg

Massive NATO exercises to coincide with the Ukraine 'big offensive' - what could possibly go wrong?

Maybe the Russians take the initiative and go offensive first?

Simplicius' latest well worth checking out (as usual):

Latest Headlines Digest - The West's Tone Drastically Shifts

.

Not the first time I’ve heard that the huge upcoming NATO exercises in Europe are just a ruse for attacking Russia.

BRAVADO BEFORE CAPITULATION – WILL RUSSIAN DEFEAT OF US PATRIOT MISSILE BE FOLLOWED BY “UKRAINIAN F-16” ATTACK DURING THE NATO “AIR DEFENDER 23” EXERCISE ON JUNE 12

There is a grave risk that in three weeks’ time US and NATO forces will attempt direct combat against Russia.

The operational plan is to strike from Romanian airspace in the south and the Baltic states in the north, in camouflage of the NATO exercise called “Air Defender 23”, and under cover of US F-16 fighter aircraft purportedly operated by Ukrainian pilots but fuelled, directed, and guarded by more than two hundred US and NATO aircraft, including the most advanced US air war fighter, the F-35.

“This [is] the largest deployment exercise since the foundation of NATO”, according to the cover story published by NATO headquarters. “ Commanded at US bases in Germany, ostensibly led by German officers, a Bundeswehr “fact sheet” claims “100 [US] Air National Guard aircraft from 35 different states will make the leap across the Atlantic to participate in Air Defender 2023. In addition to the world’s most modern jets, the F35, more than 20 different types of aircraft and Airmen from 24 nations will practice air warfare operations together over Germany, but also over eastern Europe on the NATO border. Among them Eurofighter, F18, F16, A10, [Saab] Gripen jets.”

*****
In design since the start of the Russian Special Military Operation in February 2022, this plan of US and NATO air operations against Russia follows the defeat of the Ukrainian ground forces at Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and the strategic defeat of the US Patriot missile system at Kiev by the Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile on May 16.

The use of NATO exercises to conceal active attacks on Russian targets was first demonstrated last September when the Nord Stream pipelines were blown up following the BALTOPS naval exercise. More recently, on May 13 a US-directed ambush of Russian aircraft was rehearsed when an Su-34 fighter-bomber, an SU-35 air-defence escort, and two Mi8 helicopters were hit simultaneously and downed in Russian airspace, over Bryansk region.

*****
The post-operational Russian intelligence reports of May 18 and May 20 indicate “a multifunctional radar station, as well as five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured by the United States were hit and completely destroyed.”

In the days following, Russian military operations have intensified long-range missile attacks targeting anti-aircraft defence complexes, rail marshalling yards, fuel and ammunition stocks, equipment parks, and reserve assembly areas in the west of the Ukraine, including Khmelnitsky, Rivne, Zhitomir, and Lvov. The scope of targeting goes beyond the Electric War of previous months, a NATO forces veteran comments. “It’s now a full-on campaign. Now that the US/NATO air defence has proven to be useless against Russian strike capabilities, I expect them to take to the sky. It’s all they have left.”

*****
If Russian military intelligence moves from suspicion to conviction that air attacks by US and NATO aircraft are being readied under cover of the Ukrainian F-16s, Moscow sources anticipate “asymmetrical response”. The sources believe that if and when Poland or Romania allows a “Ukrainian” F-16 to take off from a local airfield to attack Russian forces, Polish and Romanian air bases will become Russian missile targets, just as the Patriot batteries were. US and NATO air support for such an F-16 sortie, including AWACS and RC-135 warfighting systems in the air at the same time, would become collateral targets.

Russia put its nuclear defense program on high alert last year when NATO played its war games close to their borders and they have not stood down from it. Recently Lavrov said that the Atlantic Ocean isn’t big enough to deter a Russian attack….Russia has been warning about crossing red lines and Biden has kept crossing them. Russia promised that if the Patriot missiles arrived in Ukraine that they would be destroyed. Promise made, promise kept. They are saying the same thing about F-16 jets…do we need to find out if they will keep that promise too? Ukraine cannot win the war without NATO support which means boots on the ground and jets in the air.

Obama killed what was left of the anti war movement and now those people who used to be against wars and the military budget sucking up the money are itching for NATO to get involved and drive Russia out of Ukraine. They should really consider what they are asking for!

Submitted by studentofearth on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 10:21am

Valid concern - the War Games are a good cover

@snoopydawg for other nefarious activities. The Nordstream explosions destroyed the myth they are only for training and testing equipment. Perception change is as profound as freezing Russia's dollar accounts is having on use of US dollar as a safe haven of wealth.

Thanks for bringing to the conversation.

.

Not the first time I’ve heard that the huge upcoming NATO exercises in Europe are just a ruse for attacking Russia.

BRAVADO BEFORE CAPITULATION – WILL RUSSIAN DEFEAT OF US PATRIOT MISSILE BE FOLLOWED BY “UKRAINIAN F-16” ATTACK DURING THE NATO “AIR DEFENDER 23” EXERCISE ON JUNE 12

There is a grave risk that in three weeks’ time US and NATO forces will attempt direct combat against Russia.

The operational plan is to strike from Romanian airspace in the south and the Baltic states in the north, in camouflage of the NATO exercise called “Air Defender 23”, and under cover of US F-16 fighter aircraft purportedly operated by Ukrainian pilots but fuelled, directed, and guarded by more than two hundred US and NATO aircraft, including the most advanced US air war fighter, the F-35.

“This [is] the largest deployment exercise since the foundation of NATO”, according to the cover story published by NATO headquarters. “ Commanded at US bases in Germany, ostensibly led by German officers, a Bundeswehr “fact sheet” claims “100 [US] Air National Guard aircraft from 35 different states will make the leap across the Atlantic to participate in Air Defender 2023. In addition to the world’s most modern jets, the F35, more than 20 different types of aircraft and Airmen from 24 nations will practice air warfare operations together over Germany, but also over eastern Europe on the NATO border. Among them Eurofighter, F18, F16, A10, [Saab] Gripen jets.”

*****
In design since the start of the Russian Special Military Operation in February 2022, this plan of US and NATO air operations against Russia follows the defeat of the Ukrainian ground forces at Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and the strategic defeat of the US Patriot missile system at Kiev by the Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile on May 16.

The use of NATO exercises to conceal active attacks on Russian targets was first demonstrated last September when the Nord Stream pipelines were blown up following the BALTOPS naval exercise. More recently, on May 13 a US-directed ambush of Russian aircraft was rehearsed when an Su-34 fighter-bomber, an SU-35 air-defence escort, and two Mi8 helicopters were hit simultaneously and downed in Russian airspace, over Bryansk region.

*****
The post-operational Russian intelligence reports of May 18 and May 20 indicate “a multifunctional radar station, as well as five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured by the United States were hit and completely destroyed.”

In the days following, Russian military operations have intensified long-range missile attacks targeting anti-aircraft defence complexes, rail marshalling yards, fuel and ammunition stocks, equipment parks, and reserve assembly areas in the west of the Ukraine, including Khmelnitsky, Rivne, Zhitomir, and Lvov. The scope of targeting goes beyond the Electric War of previous months, a NATO forces veteran comments. “It’s now a full-on campaign. Now that the US/NATO air defence has proven to be useless against Russian strike capabilities, I expect them to take to the sky. It’s all they have left.”

*****
If Russian military intelligence moves from suspicion to conviction that air attacks by US and NATO aircraft are being readied under cover of the Ukrainian F-16s, Moscow sources anticipate “asymmetrical response”. The sources believe that if and when Poland or Romania allows a “Ukrainian” F-16 to take off from a local airfield to attack Russian forces, Polish and Romanian air bases will become Russian missile targets, just as the Patriot batteries were. US and NATO air support for such an F-16 sortie, including AWACS and RC-135 warfighting systems in the air at the same time, would become collateral targets.

Russia put its nuclear defense program on high alert last year when NATO played its war games close to their borders and they have not stood down from it. Recently Lavrov said that the Atlantic Ocean isn’t big enough to deter a Russian attack….Russia has been warning about crossing red lines and Biden has kept crossing them. Russia promised that if the Patriot missiles arrived in Ukraine that they would be destroyed. Promise made, promise kept. They are saying the same thing about F-16 jets…do we need to find out if they will keep that promise too? Ukraine cannot win the war without NATO support which means boots on the ground and jets in the air.

Obama killed what was left of the anti war movement and now those people who used to be against wars and the military budget sucking up the money are itching for NATO to get involved and drive Russia out of Ukraine. They should really consider what they are asking for!

—

Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

Submitted by snoopydawg on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 12:56pm

Let’s cross more red lines dammit!

"To liberate more provinces, Ukrainians could have to strike hard, far, and again and again. Washington will have to decide just how much it is prepared to help them," @dblock94 writes: https://t.co/dGjoRfyGpC

— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) May 27, 2023

Remember that the Atlantic is funded by the US and many foreign governments. Hopefully people remember the essays that wrote about this.

—

Putin isn’t going to make you homeless or kill you or deny you health care.
Your government will allow it to happen though.

Submitted by EyeRound on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 2:49pm

Good compilation SOE

I was wondering, though, if the photo from the G7 conference is doctored? What catches my eye is the back row of "world leaders" behind Biden. Macron appears to be in front of Schulz if you look at Macron's left arm. But if you look at the 2 men's feet, Schulz's right foot seems even with Macron's left foot, and Schulz may be walking on air. . . Did others see this? Anyway, this post is worth a good read. Thank you!

Submitted by enhydra lutris on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 7:16pm

They might be holding hands. n/t

@EyeRound

—

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Submitted by studentofearth on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 1:34pm

Thank you

@EyeRound The photo is probably real and selected from a series of stills from an autoshoot setting during the walk showing all the participants. There is no reason to doctor the results. It was included in a very a positive article of the summit. It simply triggered a reaction in me. Probably because I have been focusing on exploring patterns of shifting global trade and migration patterns in the 1600's compared to today.

Thanks for taking the time to evaluate and question.

—

Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

Submitted by randtntx on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 3:18pm

Thanks for the

excellent collection of articles. This whole subject amazes me. It's such a shift.
Here are some more maps to go along with Escobar's.
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=BRE%2FINSTC+maps&ie...

Wikipedia has an entry on INSTC
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_North–South_Transport_Corridor

Edited to add link on how the Belt and Road Initiative changed countries’ bilateral economic relationships with China over time.
https://www.cfr.org/article/belt-and-road-tracker

Submitted by studentofearth on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 1:35pm

The Belt and Road track is a special find- Thanks n/t

@randtntx

—

Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

Submitted by on the cusp on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 4:46pm

Maybe I will be able to read Escobar tonight.

We are going to one music venue after another, admiring the deer, wild turkeys, and turtles at the pond on this remote ranch house in the Texas Hill Country.
I gotta say, you cannot get a bad taco anywhere around here.
I actually look forward to the time when the US isn't in control of anything other than the US. May not help us, but the world will be a better place.
Enjoy your weekend, soe, and I so enjoy your OTs! Always interesting and well done.

—

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Submitted by enhydra lutris on Sat, 05/27/2023 - 4:50pm

Good afternoon, otc. Glad you're having a good time and

@on the cusp

enjoying nature. Say hi to tu esposa tambien.

be well and have a good one

—

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Submitted by studentofearth on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 1:36pm

Enjoy your weekend n/t

@enhydra lutris

—

Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.

Submitted by Blue Republic on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 9:04am

That Pescadores account...

in a backhanded way, while establishing that the Pescadore Islands (now under Taiwanese control)
were historically (from the 12th Century, anyway) under Chinese rule *also* points to the fact that the Chinese did not control the main island of Taiwan. In fact, the only Chinese presence there until the 16th Century was a couple trading posts with a seasonal population to buy deer hides from the indigenous population. The first permanent non-local settlements were by Europeans, first Spaniards then Dutch.

The Dutch encouraged immigration by Chinese farmers to establish agricultural communities, but under Dutch administration. The first independent ethnically Chinese polity was established by Zheng Chenggon around 1661. Zheng was loyal to the Ming Dynasty, which had mostly lost out to the Qing (Manchu) elsewhere.

With the fall of the Ming on the mainland Zheng proclaimed an independent kingdom and expelled the Dutch. In negotiations with the Qing emphasized that Taiwan had never been part of China. The Qing did eventually prevail by conquest - but only by conquering an independent kingdom well over a century after Europeans had established the first non-indigenous settlements.

So. Taiwan historically part of China? Yeah, but..

Anyhow, what Taiwan people think about that should be what counts.

Submitted by studentofearth on Sun, 05/28/2023 - 1:26pm

Here is one of my questions. What are consider the land & sea

@Blue Republic claims of the Taiwan people wanting to be an Independent nation? Republic of China (Taiwan) claims a larger land mass of the Asian continent than Peoples Republic of China and South Sea claims to the 11 dash line. Does Vietnam lose some Islands granted by The Peoples Republic of China to Taiwan? If any country acknowledges Taiwan as an Independent nation they have either ignored the issue or prenegotiated borders and territorial claims.

According to Zhong Xiangyu in the video above Taiwan people have a path in their constitution to use a voting process for altering current legally defined land and sea boundaries and move to being an Independent nation. It seems a better path than starting a multi-nation war in the Pacific and South Sea using Mutual Defense treaties as a first step.

The history of the Pescadore Islands shows repeatedly island of Formosa being used as base to enter into China mainland for military conquer or trade. Multiple G7 members have staged troops on the island over the centuries. How many lives should be destroyed for Taiwan independence before the people of the island clearly identify their territorial claims and take all necessary non-violent actions to clarify position meets legal framework?

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Still yourself, deep water can absorb many disturbances with minimal reaction.
--When the opening appears release yourself.