Open Thread - Thurs 13 Apr 2023: AI - Not So Lovely

AI - Not so Lovely

Bill McKibben recently wrote a piece about AI called 'Regular Old Intelligence is Sufficient: Even Lovely'. The piece is really good. He said a lot of things in it that I agree with, but haven't the ability to express very well.

I've known about McKibben since I read his book 'The End of Nature' published in 1989. Recently, he helped start an environmental activism group for seniors called Third Act, and yes, I'm a member. And of course he was one of the founders of 350.org, and yes, I'm a member. But this piece he wrote recently isn't necessarily about the environment, although it does end up linked... doesn't everything?

He wrote a book about AI over 20 years ago called Enough (you get the book from openlibrary which also has links to worldcat, so you can get it from your local library too), it was well received and published in several different languages. But he says (see substack piece linked above),

like most warnings it came too early; indeed, warnings generally come too early until they are too late.

His piece, 'Regular Old Intelligence...' is about the current cascade of AI - ChatGPT, Bing, Bard, whatever, and how that cascade can seem overwhelming and dire. 10% of the people developing AI, for example, think it might eventually destroy us! (research done by Ezra Klein, mentioned in the above linked McKibben piece) But there might be some hope; hope that people will reject AI and accept that people, humans, are enough. We don't need AI. We are fine. It's a really good piece, like I said before. Give it a read if you can!

Cute Goat Pic Required!
max_jt_sep_04_sml.jpeg
Here's some of our first born baby goats, Max and JT, taking it easy!! This was in September 2004, almost 20 years ago. I'm kinda blown away by that. Has it really been that long?

So, thanks for reading and here's the open thread - and remember, everything is interesting if you dive deep enough, so tell us about where you're diving!

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Sima's picture

Hope it is a great Thursday. Stuff around the world and in the US is always interesting, so post whatever you are reading, learning, doing in the comments below.

I wanted to mention that EL posted some videos of the Stray Cats on the Monday Open Thread. I'm replying late, but I love them. I forgot how young I was, how young, and how like little kids the 1970s/80s Stray Cats look (to me now...).

Also, Earthling1 posted, in their open thread, about the rain. Just wanted to commiserate, it's like that here too. The mud in the goat enclosure, ohh my. And yes, the worms are drowning!

I wasn't able to read/comment in time on their threads, so I just wanted to do that here. Gonna finally plant up the tomatoes I've been growing from seed in the greenhouse. They are only 16 or more inches tall, growing in 1 inch opening seedling flats. They will go straight into 8 inch pots, skipping the usual 4 inch pot step. I guess they liked the fertilizer I've been giving them!

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If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

Lookout's picture

Without AI how would the three letter agencies (and tech companies) spy on every phone call, text, and email? Maybe we would be better off without it, but TPTB ain't gonna give up their control tools.

We've got our early tomatoes in. I like to plant a fall crop in July as well. We're harvesting lettuce and greens. Snow peas, cabbage, and broccoli should be producing in May.

Thanks for the OT, and happy gardening!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Sima's picture

@Lookout @Lookout
Exactly, AI won't go away because TPTB won't give up their control tools. And they'll enhance it and say we 'need' it because someone can write a paper without actually writing, or turn on their lights with only words instead of flipping a switch... bleh.

Tomatoes in July? That rocks. Around here, it's not good to do tomatoes for a 'late' season, because we usually get our first frost in mid Sept. But, because we grow in a hoop house/greenhouse, we don't have that problem. We get indeterminate tomatoes and let them grow 10 or 12 feet tall! Tomatoes all 'season' from June to mid-October/mid-November. Not bad. I bet you get even more tomatoes with the fall planting! We've got lettuce ready to harvest, we'll have broccoli in June, I'll get it transplanted in time. If it stops raining, of course. *shakes rainwater from her eyes*

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If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

soryang's picture

This episode of Redacted is focused on a potential military intervention in Haiti. After the first 6 minutes or so, there is a discussion of the so called Global Fragility Act:

This seems to be a permutation of the humanitarian right to protect. I didn't even know what it was before I watched the Redacted video.

More than two years after a congressionally mandated deadline, the United States government finally sent lawmakers the 10-year country plans for implementation of the Global Fragility Act, a law meant to overhaul the U.S. approach to conflict and instability.

The plans govern how the Global Fragility Act will be implemented in the locations that will serve as a pilot of the U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability.

The plans are not public in their entirety due to sensitivities in laying out the current challenges in the selected locations — Haiti, Libya, Papua New Guinea, Mozambique, and the region of Coastal West Africa, which includes Ghana, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Guinea. They detail ways the U.S. government has engaged in the places in the past, and how it plans act differently in the future.

The “heart” of the GFA is to change the way the U.S. government works with partners “to build a more peaceful, inclusive and democratic world,” said Robert Jenkins, assistant to the administrator for the U.S. Agency of International Development’s Bureau for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization, at a virtual event Monday on the GFA.

https://www.devex.com/news/us-releases-global-fragility-act-country-plan...

Here's another "explainer" on the "change in US policy" the Global Fragility Act represents from the "Charity and Security" website:

As the Global Fragility Coalition shared in a statement welcoming the announcement, through the GFA, Congress “requires the U.S. government to center peacebuilding and conflict prevention at the heart of foreign assistance and diplomatic strategies in these priority countries and region.” The Strategy promotes a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy, creating a “whole of government” approach that serves “to prevent and mitigate conflict and build sustainable peace”. This is a welcome change from the military-first approach to foreign policy that has become the status quo.

C&SN is part of this broad coalition of humanitarian, peacebuilding, development and faith-based organizations that pushed for the passage of the GFA, and we applaud the administration for following through on its mandate to stave off conflict before it erupts, and for identifying priority countries and regions for GFA implementation. We look forward to working with the administration on its requirement of consultative engagement with civil society regarding implementation and prioritization of local leadership.

Too often, resources are deployed only to address the catastrophic consequences of conflict rather than to prevent it in the first place. Successful implementation of the GFA can help change that. By centering peacebuilding and conflict prevention, the GFA can also reduce humanitarian need globally, enabling humanitarian organizations to be more effective in meeting existing needs.

In an article in Just Security, the co-chairs of the Global Fragility Coalition (Liz Hume, Executive Director of the Alliance for Peacebuilding, and Kate Phillips-Barrasso, Vice President of Global Policy and Advocacy at Mercy Corps) welcomed the naming of priority countries and the priority region, and offered recommendations for the U.S. government to support the successful implementation of the GFA moving forward. Their recommendations included calling on Congress to fully fund GFA implementation based on the already authorized “$200 million for the Prevention and Stabilization Fund and at least $30 million for a Complex Crises Fund, as well as $25 million annually for a separate Multi-Donor Global Fragility Fund.” They also called on the administration to begin implementing programming under the GFA before the end of this fiscal year on Sep. 30, and to make requests to Congress to ensure that USAID and the State Department have the funding necessary to support GFA implementation.

https://charityandsecurity.org/news/white-house-announces-global-fragili...

Maybe the US could start with not starting wars and attempting to overthrow governments around the world on behalf of western interests.

Thanks to the reconstruction of my home's interior which mostly done, we will start the effort to move back in soon. My dog no longer fears going into the house, now that it is returning to a semblance of its former appearance, and the contractors helping us rebuild are so friendly. He still fears the back yard because of how the flood there engulfed our home more than six months ago.

The persistent noise from the children jumping in the apartment upstairs sometimes sounds like thunder and causes smokey to tremble with fear. I don't know how a parent could keep their children cooped up in a small crowded apartment virtually all day, every day. The constant loud noise reminds me of the low impact torture technique i learned about many years ago.

Can't wait to get out of here. We don't have much personal property left but its still too much for us, and we will still need some help moving. The local Korean-American church has been so helpful to us, we are indebted to them, my wife is trying to enlist their aid again. She and her colleagues have been feeding those college kids authentic Korean cooking on Sundays for years to remind them of home, I think they'll come through for us.

Thanks for the OT Sima. I'm not a big AI fan. I do like to use the naver.com dictionary site. It's probably AI, much better than Google. I don't think it's spying on our personal privacy as much as Google.

(edited comments)

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語必忠信 行必正直

enhydra lutris's picture

@soryang

that our interventions in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan "failed to stabilize" those nations but utterly failed to note that it was our actions which de-stabilized them in the first place. Something is seriously wrong with our view of stable, stability and stabilization, starting with the fact that a nation not within our orbit is somehow automatically deemed less than stable.

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Sima's picture

@enhydra lutris @enhydra lutris
Boy, do I agree with your take on this!

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If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

Sima's picture

@soryang
of reacting to 'global fragility' that'll be great. I'm not holding my breath, we need to just stop interfering in other's business. But then, that's the way of humans, isn't it?

I'm glad you are about ready to move back home. And I'm glad Smokey will be ok with that. Years ago, someone shot at Jaska, I think because she looks so much like a fox. Before that, she'd go hunting with people, just for fun. After that, she runs at the sound of a gun (well, she did run, now she hobbles and can't hear so well, so she doesn't notice... heh). So I can understand why Smokey is freaked at loud noises that sound like thunder now.

I hope the Korean American church helps! I bet they will. Have a great weekend!

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

snoopydawg's picture

And so it begins.

2 days ago

Click to see more tweets.

Last night

Situation much worse this morning. The water cut into the road and cut a sewer line.

This morning the heavily traveled canyon to Park City from SLC had a massive mud slide blocking all, but one lane going east. Lots of people live in SLC and work in PC and vice versa so lots of people either stuck at home or on the freeway. We hit 83 Monday which was a new record. A few days of cooler temps and then headed back up.

I’d ask for prayers, but THE church has that covered. :). Kidding aside, Mormons make great neighbors.

…it’s snowing hard this morning.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

usefewersyllables's picture

@snoopydawg @snoopydawg

get some rain early and maybe 1-2" of snow late from that storm when it gets to the Denver metro area tomorrow. We'll just see about that- we need the moisture. The last 2 days have been in the 80s, with today in the low 70s and tomorrow in the low 40s before the snow starts. Springtime in the Rockies. Gonna be dry here, but it will definitely be Biblical flooding out west...

Stay as safe as you can, and keep to whatever passes for high ground!

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Twice bitten, permanently shy.

snoopydawg's picture

@usefewersyllables

I’m away from the areas that will see problems like those living close to rivers and people who built houses on the hills that I’ve never thought was a good idea.

This article is about the first tweet and you can see the damage from the runoff, but you can also see how much dirt surrounds the homes that are still being built. They are on the foothills and I’ve driven by them for years thinking yeah good luck with that if there’s an earthquake or heavy runoff. With the 20 year drought lots of homes have been built in flood plains…yeegads how dumb was that?

https://www.ksl.com/article/50620429/a-utah-snowpack-for-the-records-mea...

There has been more snow this year than 40 years ago when we had so much water coming down they diverted it down 2 main streets of SLC and flooding and mudslides then.

And for crying out loud why did they wait so long to start emptying the dams knowing that we have a ton of water that is going to fill them up? It’s what is causing some of the rivers running so high and causing problems downstream! Even I am smarter than that.

California's orchards and farms have been flooded so crops weren’t planted and it’s the same thing here which will affect the food supply…see the video I posted below.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

Sima's picture

@usefewersyllables
Springtime in the Rockies for sure! That's like normal summer 'hot' temp here to normal winter 'cold' temp here. In a few days. Sweat... brrrrr...

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

usefewersyllables's picture

@Sima

I've ever experienced was here. One January we had a roast doing the low-and-slow thing on the grill on one of those occasional 68degF winter days, and had one of those beautiful Alberta Clippers roll down the Front Range. It dropped from 68degF and sunny to -10degF and heavy snow in 6 hours: by the time I took the meat off the grill, it was developing horizontal icicles from the wind and the snow. The front rolling through looked just like something from Close Encounters. Life here certainly can be an adventure at times...

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Twice bitten, permanently shy.

Sima's picture

@snoopydawg
and west coast have too much water. Dang. And a record hot temperature for you? We've had near record cold temps (for here). Today the high was about 48 degrees in my little town. That's about 15 degrees colder than normal. It's weird having the wood stove going in April.

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

different and have different capacities to take on additional news burdens. My limit is just about reached with the current real problems to ponder and depress over, namely Ukraine/looming WW3, AI, CBDCs, likely 2023 Recession/Depression, and now, what I learn today at CHD about efforts in Missouri (and maybe elsewhere) at the state lege level to introduce mRNA vaccines into our food supply via plants and animal livestock. I barely have enough concern energy and time left to follow. East Palestine let alone Palestine.

I find it necessary to try to counter the relentless onslaught of negative news with time spent viewing some entertaining 1A Auditor videos, NBA Playoff action, and, oddly, some End of the World videos. I suspect the latter helps to cope with the stark reality of what's happening in Ukraine. Greatly enjoy viewings of a quirky Ray Milland-directed small drive-in movie, Panic in the Year Zero! Co-starring Frankie Avalon. Available on YT.

The 1A auditors, not much mentioned on this blog, are a very mixed bag, but particularly amusing are some of the videos of Amagansett Press and his colorful NY street verbal style. Major points for his efforts at upholding citizens' constitutional rights in public, with points deducted for his misguided 2A tendencies. Long Island Audit is a good guy who has done a good job with his legal homework and isn't afraid to call out the tyrants in blue when they act like thugs. Danbury, CT is one of the peculiar places of inbred public corruption he seems to have uncovered. Audit the Audit and Civil Rights Lawyer much better at explaining the legal angles.

Just some of the ways I try to stay sane these days. If I had more of a green thumb and patience, I would do some gardening too.

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snoopydawg's picture

@wokkamile

Taking down developed countries…gee was that why NAFTA was done in 1992 the same year that the parasites developed this plan? Was the bookend of the plan started in 2020 when they closed the global economy and watched as hundreds of thousands of small businesses were shut down for good and why we dare seeing attacks against food plants and poisoning of rural areas from train wrecks and other disasters? I remember hearing that agenda 21 was a conspiracy theory of course, but we can look back at the actions that the parasites have taken since 1992 and see how far they’ve come and how close they are to their goals.

I’m wondering if China and Russia creating the BRICS and the other organization that will bypass America is just another way to crash the dollar that has been long planned. I have started seeing articles saying that the dollar is losing its position…

I sure hate being paranoid and cynical, but looking at everything that is happening shouldn’t I be?

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

enhydra lutris's picture

@snoopydawg

vast numbers of agenda 21 that have been published without reading the actual document. I remember the first few, how the blue helmets would soon fill up the US and force us all to build bike paths and parks against our will, etc. Funny how 2021 came and went without any takeover by the UN forces of darkness. Heck, just looking at the signers casts doubt on that whole spiel.

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Sima's picture

@wokkamile
in the world/news is about like mine. And it gets too depressing, too much at times, on top of the crap going on with my aged parents and disabled sister. I'm gonna haveta check out the 1A videos. I spend too much time watching dashcam videos right now, just to get my mind in 'another' place.

Thanks for giving a few of your ways of staying sane. I am going to try some of them (probably watch rodeo instead of NBA but... heck, it's entertainment). I used to watch music videos from other countries, that was really fun and distracting. I need to do that again! Thanks for stopping by!

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

enhydra lutris's picture

that has, unfortunately, become a fad and the latest thing. You can include a bunch of hard-wired logic circuits or just go totally wild neural net but everything depends upon what you feed it, and, very possibly, upon the order that the stuff it is fed is fed to it.

One hypothesis:

We evolved into hellacious pattern discerning devices and even pattern matching ones too. As a result, we frequently discern important information in the data stream, and are also hellaciously prone to pareidolia, seeing shit which isn't there. So, one top level question is whether AI, will likewise be subject to pareidolia. We already know that it can't do facial rec worth shit, but possibly because it what it was fed and how and constraints and such driven by the human failings of its designers and operators. Without monitoring and intervention there will be a lot of errors.

It isn't just pattern discerning, it is correlation discerning and correlation making. A smart assed paper in The New England Journal of Medicine once noted that countries that consumed mucho chocolate also won lotsa Nobels. AI not only could but assuredly would do that. Without monitoring and intervention there will be a lot of errors.

As more errors leak out past human watchdogs there will be more people bitten in the ass by relying on same, and the fad should, hopefully, cool off, though not without some suffering and pain for non-critical early adopters.

be well and have a good one

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5 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Sima's picture

@enhydra lutris
and good analysis. I like the ending 'As more errors leak out past human watchdogs there will be more people bitten in the ass by relying on same, and the fad should, hopefully, cool off, though not without some suffering and pain for non-critical early adopters.' I sure hope that comes true, and none of us are bitten in the ass!

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4 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so

The Liberal Moonbat's picture

I've always said that artifical intelligence scares me far less than natural stupidity.

From what we've seen so far, the most worrisome thing about the former has turned out to be its continued subservience to the latter.

Star Trek famously owes its origins to speculation among some 20th-Century radicals that alien visitors would side with the lower-classes against capitalism/feudalism - why has no one yet suggested that the same could be true of a machine uprising?

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In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!

enhydra lutris's picture

@The Liberal Moonbat

it is simply the structure of the universe. One simply cannot carry water in a sieve; things that seek out patterns and correlations, if well made, will find them, whether or not they are false impressions.

be well and have a good one

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4 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

achievements?

Translation:

“With these elections, Türkiye will send a signal to the West. This country no longer pays attention to what the West would say, either in the fight against terrorism or in determining its economic policy. The level of localization in the defense industry has increased from 20 to 80 percent.

This is a step towards success. The West, if you pay attention, says that it is against Erdogan.

Pay attention, the West says that he is against Erdogan. In fact, this position is not only against me, it is against the entire Turkish nation. But my people will derail this game on May 14th.

Election day will be a turning point [in the life of the country]”

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@humphrey

dictated by his masters. The State Department is losing on every front around the
world. Their adversaries far outnumber their friends at this point. Saving face is
not in their playbook. As more independent nations cotton to the fact there are
other, better alternatives to achieve security and financial strength, the US
hegemony role in international affairs weakens.

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6 users have voted.

Thanks for the ot, sima!
My legal profession is trending toward AI for decisions on whether to take a case or appeal it. Nobody is will to be prepared, persuasive, and bold. Those were the 3 concepts taught to us in law school by a former attorney general of the state of Florida. She was teaching is to just go for it.
now, with caution, advice from our AI betters.
I am glad I am old and nearing retirement.
Give Jaska a hug from on the cusp, please?

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Sima's picture

@on the cusp
Jaska sez thanks and gives a lick and a nuzzle back!

AI in the legal profession? I didn't think of that, but of course. I wonder after AI is into everything, how we will humans determine 'smart'? I mean, will people know how to do research? How to evaluate it? How to prep for court? I guess things are changing too much, because I'm kinda glad to be old too. Maybe we all get this way as life changes?

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3 users have voted.

If you're poor now, my friend, then you'll stay poor.
These days, only the rich get given more. -- Martial book 5:81, c. AD 100 or so
Nothing ever changes -- Sima, c. AD 2020 or so