Some numbers and some primary optimism
Just looked at the Guardian's WI results page and it looks like Clinton only won Milwaukee county. That means she has won a total of one county in the last 4 primary/caucuses - is this some king of record in a two horse primary race?
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/apr/05/wisconsin-...
I know that its all about the delegate count but this is just embarrassing for Team Clinton
But everything is OK in Clinton land because someone has made some pretty graphs that show that everything is OK
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/4/7/1511484/-Clinton-vs-Clinton-An-up...
From what I can gather Clinton may not win any counties on Saturday which means that the Hill would be averaging 0.2 counties per state over the last five.
On a related note I saw an interesting number today that I haven't checked but want to pass on. If the pledged delegate difference stays the same as it is currently then Sanders will need to win California 75%/25%.
A couple of things - if Sanders continues over-performing the delegate margin will shrink a lot. Even if something completely unforeseen happens and Clinton stops the rot it is still not over.
In other words there are no must win states before California. Even a loss in NY would not be a mortal wound for the Sanders campaign.
Numbers aside, Clinton's campaign has nowhere to go rhetorically whereas Sanders has nothing to worry about - he can just reiterate what he has been saying for decades. The public, especially in the West, are sophisticated enough to separate the facts from the media spin (media have yet to catch up with that concept).
Seems like a cause for optimism - and a glass of wine.
Comments
Represent.
"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey
Yes, I noticed the same at the Guardian...
But then again, Wisconsin is very white and rural in the Bernie parts.
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
Sure but he even over performed
in Milwaukee I think the predictions were running about -10% and he lost by less than 4%
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
NY will be telling
I think we can win NY if they don't steal it. The machine is powerful and dark.
Let's hope the people movement out shines them! One step at a time.
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”
I have a good feeling about NY
mostly due to the complete meltdown at Camp Clinton. They know something that is making them deeply unhappy probably some internal polling.
-cool cartoon
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
Great cartoon.
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
I'll drink to that!
Cheers!
Going to an official campaign rally in Kingstn, NY Saturday (Hudson Valley). Enviros and fracktavists will be speaking, including Bill McKibben. Then we fan out and canvass. Not sure if I'll get into the city for the Bernie rally in Washington Square Park on the 14th but still working on it. Lawn signs are blooming! There's a young man who created a super pac in this area and they've bought 900 yard signs to spread around Dutchess a County!
Onward!
Sounds like
its going to be a great day - would love to hear McKibben speak. Hope Bernie doesn't wear his voice out as I think he has a debate that evening - most definitely looking forward to that.
Love the idea of a super pac for yard signs
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
Just a couple of nice things to share...
The first is this Tweet...
Hillbilly Dem... I get your signature...
"There's been a lot of progress in this country over the last 75 years.
And the Republicans have been against all of it."
But it is no longer accurate...
https://twitter.com/billmon1/status/717360745277575169/photo/1
That belongs to the Hillary Supporters now...
And Seth Abramson at Huffington Post "The Democrats Are Headed for a Contested Convention Too"
Things are looking up!
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."
~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
The radical change number
is great cause for optimism because it shows that this movement is not going away. There are big changes coming - its not a matter of if but rather when.
Aside from anything else the conventions this year will certainly be interesting - both of them.
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
Bernie doesn't need a 75-25 win in California
if the delegates split that way then Bernie would gain a net of 240 or so, which would put him slightly ahead in pledged delegates.
However we've got other states that are voting. Oregon, for one, will help Bernie and will lower the amount he needs in California.
On the other hand, I took a look at the superdelegates the other day. I think we might be screwed. Besides the congress people (House and Senate) the other super dels are DNC members and business guys, the kind we don't like and who don't like us.
Which potentially puts us back into that situation
Where the voters have chosen Sanders, but the delegates choose Hillary. Then...it's going to get interesting.
"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X
Superdelegates are politicians
but they're not stupid -- if they see that the only region Clinton does well in happens to be the South (which the Democrats aren't going to win anyway), it doesn't matter how many political chips Hillary tries to cash in. And especially if Sanders continues to do well with the independents ("no party affiliation" folks) who don't have the Democratic party loyalty. If you know someone's going to come out and vote for your Presidential nominee, half your work is done -- you just have to make sure they vote for all the other Democrats on the ballot as well. (Reportedly many of the Sanders voters in WI only voted for Sanders, not for any of the other races especially the state Supreme Court.)
Can't see the
Supers overriding the vote - it would lead to civil war on the Dem side and destroy the party. I think that they will go with Bernie but then the establishment Dems will regroup and possibly attempt to engineer a scandal and challenge in 2020. If it wasn't so important this election would be more fun than Game of Thrones.
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
I think that the 75/25 split
was based on all the states breaking even - I didn't check it though (which thinking about it wouldn't be difficult). So any state Bernie wins tilts the CA numbers required in his favor. If he has good results in NY and PA that could really make a dent. Indiana also looks like its going to do him a solid.
The Superdelegates don't worry me - using them to overturn the will of the party base will destroy the party. I think that the establishment party will use the four years to regroup.
A bit of conjecture: If Clinton craterered earlier in the cycle I think that she would have been persuaded to have an illness forcing her to drop out and Biden would have been parachuted in - too late for that now I suspect.
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
Going to a "Bernie Camp" on Saturday.
Signed up for field work earlier today. Webpage said only 36 others did too.
Doesn't matter. My last foray into in-your-face activism for Kerry we turned out the highest voter count in the precinct in decades.
Improve the Resilience Resource Library by adding your links.
Vote Smart - Just the Facts - 40,000 politicians by name or zipcode
Excellent!
I suspect that turning people out for Sanders will be a lot easier than turning them out for Kerry.
Hope that it works and hope that its a lot of fun.
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
There's ALWAYS good cause for a glass of wine....
Heck, do you really even need a cause?
"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it."
-- John Lennon
Cause? Whaddya mean Cause?
Isn't wine one of the four basic food groups?
Improve the Resilience Resource Library by adding your links.
Vote Smart - Just the Facts - 40,000 politicians by name or zipcode
I used to think
the other three were caffeine, nicotine, and pizza
Got older and more sensible somewhere along the way though
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
I still do.
Improve the Resilience Resource Library by adding your links.
Vote Smart - Just the Facts - 40,000 politicians by name or zipcode
Heh
Did the full set yesterday and suffering for it this morning - other than a cigarette that is. Haven't smoked for 10 years now but still miss it occasionally.
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
duplicate
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
ha no - just thought it made me sound responsible n/t
“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.” -Voltaire
That ship sailed a long time ago, my friend
"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it."
-- John Lennon