An actual setback for Putin

Submitted by gjohnsit on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 2:04pm

Most of the 'Putin is losing. Russia is being crushed" news I don't believe. Most of the time it is obvious propaganda.
However, this news I actually believe, and it makes a difference.

In January, Kazakhstan’s new President asked Putin and other former Soviet republics to send a few thousand peacekeeping troops to quell a violent uprising mounted by a former dictator. But in June, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said on Russian Television with Putin sitting beside him that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was unjustified.

One outraged Russian politician later warned that such defiance could result in Ukrainian-style consequences. Undaunted, the Kazakh leader publicly offered on July 4 to increase its oil shipments to Europe, and Moscow immediately shut down the Kazakh pipeline through Russian territory that delivers oil to Europe. The Kazakh leader then announced new export options will be explored by his government.

This is the first major crack in the Asian continent to turn on Russia, and this time it's right on Russia's doorstep. If Kazakhstan can defy Russia then anyone can.

In 2020, Turkey and Kazakhstan signed a military cooperation agreement, as did Ukraine that year, which includes the defense industry, military intelligence sharing, joint exercises, information systems and cyber defense. More symbolically, in 2021 the Kazakh government announced it would scrap the Russian Cyrillic alphabet and transition the country’s written language Kazakh to a Latin-based alphabet like Turkey’s.

And this May, Toyakev scrapped the traditional Soviet May 9 Victory Day celebrations, in protest against the invasion of Ukraine, and flew to Ankara to meet with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

It's strange that our news media wants to invent divisions between Russia and China that don't exist, as an example, while ignoring this actual split.

The West has failed to isolate Russia. The rouble is strong. Russia is opening a new trade corridor.
But this only works if Asia continues to stand with Russia.

Tags: 
kazakhstan
Russia
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Comments

Submitted by humphrey on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 3:24pm

On following your link I found that the source of the article to be somewhat questionable.

In tiny letters (almost invisible) was "The New Voice of Ukraine".

Here is their twitter feed and it does not appear to be fair and balanced.

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Ese...

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Submitted by gjohnsit on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 3:33pm

@humphrey
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/25/tensions-flare-between-russ...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/24/whats-behind-kazakhstan-not-rec...
https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-russia-frictions-over-ukraine-war-go-p...

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Submitted by humphrey on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 4:10pm

@gjohnsit

I appreciate and enjoy your work. I was simply pointing out the source could actually be a propaganda outlet. The additional links also are not my go to locations to find accurate reporting.

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Submitted by gjohnsit on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 4:14pm

@humphrey You questioned my source, so I showed you that lots of sources are saying the same thing.
That's all. Nothing more.

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Submitted by CB on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 3:54pm
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should have signed the agreement that was being discussed in Turkey.

In Conversation with President Tokayev
June 21st, 2022

H.E. Kassym-Jomart K. Tokayev, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan joins Bloomberg’s Manus Cranny at the Qatar Economic Forum. (Source: Bloomberg)

Tokayev: "Speaking on behalf of Kazakstan, as far as Russia is concerned, we have no problems. Speaking about Europe we recognize, we acknowledge that they have problems... we need to find ways to a resolution."

Q: Is Mr Putin a staunch and reliable ally for Kazakhstan?

Tokayev: "Mr Putin a staunch and reliable ally for Kazakhstan. I am very much pleased to have a close relationship with Putin."

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Submitted by gjohnsit on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 4:04pm

@CB
Shortly before Russia blocked Kazakhstan's main oil export pipeline.

I'm not saying that Kazakhstan is going to join NATO or something like that. But I am saying that this split is not something that Putin can afford to get any wider.
Putin has about 6 more months that he can dictate terms. If he hasn't forced a way to end this war by then, then Russia is in trouble. That's my prediction.
Take that for what it's worth.

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Submitted by CB on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 4:41pm
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@gjohnsit
last January. The west is making more out this difference than it warrants. The friendship is sound despite a difference of opinion on Ukraine.

Putin, Tokayev confirm intention to strengthen allied relations between two states. Russian and Kazakh presidents held a telephone conversation on Tuesday

MOSCOW, July 12. /TASS/. Russian and Kazakh presidents, Vladimir Putin and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, confirmed their intention to strengthen allied relations between the two countries in a telephone conversation on Tuesday, the Kremlin press service said in a statement following the talks.

"Relevant issues of bilateral cooperation were discussed in the wake of agreements reached at the top-level Russian-Kazakh talks in St. Petersburg on June 17. The intention to further strengthen the strategic partnership and alliance of the two countries, to consistently implement particular projects in the trade-economic and energy areas was confirmed," the statement said.

Previously Putin and Tokayev had a meeting on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 17. They also participated in a plenary session of the forum on the same day.

Putin is a skilled negotiator and knows the game. Tokayev is currently working on a huge deal with a German company to turn Kazakhstan into a major hub for green hydrogen so he has to toe the EU line. Russia intends to follow suit with hydrogen production using Nord Stream II to send it to Europe in the future.

World's biggest green hydrogen project announced for Kazakhstan
June 28, 2021

Germany's Svevind has announced plans for a colossal green hydrogen project that will place some 45 gigawatts of wind and solar energy generation on the vast steppes of Kazakhstan to produce around three million tonnes of green hydrogen annually.

This project will utterly dwarf the biggest project currently in planning or underway; it boasts more than twice the production capacity of the Asian Renewable Energy Hub that's just been deemed "clearly unacceptable" by Australia's conservative environment minister, and it's projected to produce five times more than the Enegix Base One project in Brazil. The biggest green hydrogen plant in the world today, Air Liquide's facility in Canada, marshals just 20 MW of peak electrolyzing capability – this Svevind project plans to run a monstrous 30 GW of electrolyzers.

The development is at an early stage; Svsvind has just signed an MoU with the Kazakh Invest National Company JSC after presenting its plans to the Kazakh government in May. The overall development, engineering, procurement and financing phases are expected to take about three to five years, and then the construction and commissioning phases are predicted to take around five years.
...

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Submitted by CB on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 4:58pm
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@gjohnsit
All's well that ends well. It was just a little tiff between friends!

Kazakhstan’s oil exporters relieved after Russian court lifts pipeline ban – diplomat
July 29, 2022

Pipeline politics continues to make headlines in Kazakhstan. When a Russian court ordered the Caspian Sea Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to start implementing an order stop operations, quote Administrative Violations On July 6, Kazakh exporters questioned how to send oil to their foreign customers, since 80 percent of the country’s exports go through the pipeline.

Political and commercial pressure helped reverse the court’s July 11 decision, in which the 30-day suspension was renegotiated into a fine equivalent to just $3,250. The oil industry in Kazakhstan sighed with relief.
...

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Submitted by CB on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 4:13pm
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defence spending in the coming years it will be with Russia followed by China and Turkey.

Russia to Deliver Four Su-30SMs to Kazakhstan
August 31, 2021

Kazakhstan expects to receive four Su-30SM multirole fighters from Russia in 2022, as announced by Russia’s Federal Service Director for Military-Technical Cooperation, Dmitry Shugayev.

According to the defense director, the contract details are still being worked out. However, Russia is expected to deliver the Su-30SM fighters in addition to the 20 units that they have delivered so far. The deliveries of this model began in 2015, with units coming from the Irkutsk Aviation Enterprise.

Initial discussions surrounding the Su-30SM purchase began in 2017 when Kazakhstan expressed interest in the fighter jet as part of its military modernization.
...

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Submitted by enhydra lutris on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 5:19pm
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It is very interestng that most Kazak oil still goes through Novorossiysk even after the US and allied entities worked so hard to get the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline built and functioning. Looks like it is only going to service Azerbaijan after all. Kazakhstan is neutral, last I heard, as to Ukraine, but one must always keep in mind that for a loooong time now two of the major players in Kazakhstan have been Chevron-Texaco and Exxon_Mobil, who are, as of today, the two largest shareholders in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

be well and have a good one

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—

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Submitted by Linda Wood on Mon, 08/01/2022 - 7:25pm

@enhydra lutris

documented the presence of the Standard Oil companies in the Soviet Union in his 3-volume research project for the Hoover Institution at Stanford:

Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development: 1917-1930

Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development: 1930–1945

Western Technology and Soviet Economic Development 1945-1965

The Standard Oil companies have been in Russia and have been developing Soviet and Russian resources for over a century.

Exxon and Halliburton have just recently published their decisions to stop projects in Russia this Spring as part of the sanctions related to the Ukraine war, but I haven't seen such announcements during all the previous years of sanctions.

Wherever there is oil or gas or related industry, the Standard Oil companies are there. And they have been there. And they will be there. It's hard to believe they have abandoned projects in Russia currently after all the work, investment and descriptions on their websites about their industrial projects and developments there. I kind of think it is ongoing, is profitable, and doesn't stop, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Jake Sullivan, and Tony Blinken notwithstanding.

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