Ukraine Situation Shifting

In wars you can take it for granted that much of the information you are getting is at best nuanced. Information and propaganda is considered one more tool to be used.

When Ukraine first began using it's Himars there were many videos online of Russian ammunition warehouses and supply dumps blowing up and exploding. Of course they could be anything at all. Something exploding on a video.

With time and multiple sources it's possible to make some assumptions.

What we do know is that things have quieted way down. Russia has reduced it's attacks on Ukraine. The first targets were ammo and also command and control. Now Ukraine is targeting roads, bridges, and infrastructure. Russia moved much of it's ammunition storage far back from the front lines close to it's border but that seems to have had little effect on the himar's accuracy.

As Russia has logistical problems supplying it's artillery and infantry, Ukraine gets better at it. The himars are able to operate beyond the reach of Russian artillery.

Ukraine has warned its citizens in Kherson to evacuate if possible as they are going to attempt to retake the city. Russia has done more to unite the different factions in Ukraine than just about anything else.

Of course now one starts to hear talk of peace from Russia, yet polling shows 90% of Ukraines want a return of all lost territory before any talks. For three years the Ukraine President tried to call Putin. Putin wouldn't take the call. Putin took parts of two provinces already last decade, now they tried to take the entire country, it's probably best if Russia negotiates after Ukraine has a few thousand Russian POWs and when the front lines are at the Russian border. I've seen places where hydrophobia runs through the dog population, there's no negotiating.

Russia has killed a lot of people. Putting the same value on all life you would have to count Russian soldiers as well as Ukraine soldiers and Ukraine civilians. Neither side gives casualty figures that can be assumed legit but most observers count in the tens of thousands with millions displaced and the world economy thrown into a tizzy.

Putin has already lost. Ukraine didn't fall in three days and he lost vast numbers of infantry and tanks. Nato, Europe, and the big industrial democracies of east asia have been united like never before. Putin still figures he has won as he has taken the industrial heartland of Ukraine and his popularity in Russia is high. It looks highly possible that Russia could lose Crimea and following that much of what they took in the east. When Putin begins to feel like he lost is when things will look bleak.

Frankly I'd hoped that Putin would have a technical failure of his aircraft on the return from Iran. I doubt his generals have the stomach for this war.

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OOPS!

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CB's picture

In wars you can take it for granted that much of the information you are getting is at best nuanced. Information and propaganda is considered one more tool to be used.

You have given zero backup for the veracity of ANY of those statements in this diary. It appears that you are just dragging these talking points directly from DKos.

C99% has higher standards which you should respect...

Intelligence Says West Doesn't Trust HIMARS Completely To Ukraine: Operated By NATO Military, Guarded By Mercenaries Near Pentagon
22 Jul 2022

JAKARTA - The High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) operated by the Ukrainian military is said to be manned by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military personnel, with information about the advanced weapons operating system not being transferred to Kyiv due to lack of trust, Russian security sources told Sputnik, citing intelligence received from sources within the Ukrainian military.

"According to information received from sources in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, at least two HIMARS are operating in the southern area, with the remaining 10 scattered in the northern arc, in an active hostilities area in Donbass," said the source who requested anonymity, citing Sputnik News July 22.

"The artillery installation crew is manned by unstaffed NATO military personnel, and manned by private military contractors close to the Pentagon," the source added.

The source further indicated that targets were selected using US military satellites, and HIMARS operated in a Hit and Run manner, rapidly changing their position after firing to avoid retaliation, and never returning to the position where they had previously been deployed.
...

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enhydra lutris's picture

@CB

"According to information received from sources in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, at least two HIMARS are operating in the southern area, with the remaining 10 scattered in the northern arc, in an active hostilities area in Donbass,"

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

CB's picture

Kharkov: routine artillery work, slight advances. Donbass: Ukrainian command recognizes for the first time that battles are going on in Solidar itself. Russian actions near Avdeyevka confirm indirectly the British forecast about the future development of the operation that threatens to put out of the war the entire Ukrainian group in Donbass. Kherson: albeit the Russians managed to fend off a 12-rockets HIMARS attack on the crucial Antonovski bridge yesterday, reports say that Ukrainians plan to amass a group of up to for HIMARS launchers, a number of Uragans and drones to try to destroy the bridge, and stage a counter-offense with objective to disrupt the referendum on accession to Russian Federation, scheduled for September in the area. State of the fronts: 13:00 CEST July 22

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CB's picture

HIMARS, M777, ATACMS. Conclusion

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enhydra lutris's picture

@CB

A handful, but they ARE all caps. Reminiscent of the Nebelwerfer, the screaming mimi, and an old Russian folk Tune -

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

CB's picture

Update on Russia Operations in Ukraine for July 21, 2022

  • Pentagon admits Ukrainian troops are not stopping Russia’s advance;
  • Pentagon admits HIMARS cannot “win” a war on their own;
  • US allies are repairing Ukrainian equipment Ukraine is not capable of repairing itself;
  • Media and US officials float idea of training Ukrainian pilots to fly Western warplanes;
  • US claims Russia’s advances are slow and incremental, omitting that Donbass is the most heavily fortified region of Ukraine and yet Russia continues to advance;

References:

US Department of Defense - Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army General Mark A. Milley Hold a Press Conference (July 20, 2022):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3100301/secr...

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Two of the largest armies are facing off. Hundreds of thousands of troops. Thousands of pieces of armor/artillery on both sides. A dozen artillery pieces are a game changer? All it does it make the lazy back lines of the Russian forces disperse. Himars is now a pricey artillery piece that is just as effective as the millions of artillery rounds the Russian produce.

Meanwhile, in the real world, Germany and the EU in general are having massive economic problems due to restricted fuel from sanctions.

Ted Cruz is happy because Texas oil/natural gas companies are making billions. His donations are through the roof. America/EU people...not so happy. Putin? Smiling like crazy as he makes tons of money with the high fuel prices.

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CB's picture

“The closest thing I’ve ever seen to hell."

Foreign soldiers flocked to Ukraine after Russia invaded. Five months on, the fighting is taking a heavy toll.
July 21, 2022

After a thrilling first few months of unexpected success that boosted morale among the Ukrainian ranks, the reality of the bloodiest European conflict since World War II has taken its toll among some of the thousands of foreign fighters who traveled from abroad to battle the Russian invaders.
...
An American fighting for Ukraine who served in the U.S. Army with combat tours in the Middle East described the constant Russian bombardment of the city of Severodonetsk in Ukraine’s Donbas region as “the closest thing I’ve ever seen to hell.”

Ukraine Armed Forces estimate that Russia is using eight times as many artillery munitions each day, firing thousands more shells than the Ukrainians and stymying their efforts.
...
The Ukrainian losses have been steep: as many as 100 to 200 casualties per day at the worst points in the war, according to Ukraine’s own estimates. These brutal losses have eroded morale within the ranks and in other units, five non-Ukrainian soldiers said in interviews over the past month. Four of the soldiers have not made their identities public and asked that their names not be used out of concern for their security and so they could speak freely about their experiences.

“The number of people that are upset and have low morale has increased, and that’s partly because of the way the Russians have chosen to fight,” Ripley Rawlings, a retired U.S. Marine Corps lieutenant colonel and author, who is providing supplies to foreign fighters in Ukraine through his U.S.-based organization, Ripley’s Heroes, said.

Rawlings, who traveled to Ukraine recently and is sending everything from scopes and goggles to trucks and e-bikes to the troops there, said that “about half of the units that we support have taken terrible hits lately.”
...

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You decide. Seems genuine enough to me...

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earthling1's picture

@Blue Republic
quite a number of Patrick Lancaster's video reports, all from the frontline, and I mean artillery shelling in the background on camera and bullets whinging past frontline.
He and his cameraman are courageous beyond belief. His on the spot interviews are as credible as they come.
Some of the stories he elicits from these people are so heartbreaking they couldn't possibly be made up.
A Pulitzer award is sorely needed here, and not for some talking head sitting in a studio half a world away.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

dystopian's picture

Consider the source. I would suggest you consider the reality of the OP. Here is an example from a prior post:

Happy Fourth of July!!!
Submitted by ban nock on Sun, 07/03/2022 - 4:08pm
First words: "The official beginning of summer ...

OK, So according to OP The official beginning of summer is July 4.

Did y'all know that? The official beginning! He has spoken!

How many of you would agree with the premise that the OFFICIAL start of summer is July 4? I doubt I have ever heard anyone assert that the official beginning of summer is July 4. And I am an old man.

From a reality based factual standpoint there are two primary widely accepted official starts of summer, and one widely held populist view. Officially there are Astronomical summer, and Climatological summer.

Astronomical summer runs from the Solstice in late June to the Equinox in the fall, late September. My sense is that for many, for most, the official start of summer is June 21 or so, whatever date the solstice is that year. Astro summer is based on the position of earth on its axis relative to the sun.

Perhaps less widely accepted and used, but fairly common still, is Climatological summer. It is based on the climate. Climatological summer is June, July and August (in N. hemisphere). Many people consider this summer. It is based on the temperatures.

A third very widely held common belief about the beginning of summer which is not official but very popular, maybe most popular amongst the less scientifically inclined, is that summer starts on Memorial Day. The first 3 day weekend of the summer season. Sure it is a few days before Clima summer starts, but close enough. It heralds it in.

I think the most widely held concept of summer, relating to holidays is that summer runs from Memorial Day to Labor Day. From a holiday standpoint summer is framed by those two big 3 day holiday weekends. Often fairly close to when school is out. I have lived on both coasts and in Texas (which is "a whole 'nother country" if you missed the ads in the 80's) and this is one of the most widely held beliefs regarding summer. Unofficially, it begins on Memorial Day weekend. See the beaches.

Right in THE MIDDLE of summer is the other big 3 day holiday of summer, the Fourth of July. Except in OP's parallel universe where reality and the facts don't matter, the Fourth of July is the OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF SUMMER.

I suspect if we asked a million Americans if the Fourth of July was the beginning, middle, or end holiday of summer, they would virtually all say the middle holiday of summer. Not the beginning.

I point this out so folks consider the source if or when reading anything OP writes. It does not seem to be strongly fact and reality based IMHO. The Fourth of July is not the official beginning of summer. The OP is a gaslighter or severely uninformed, and trying to severely uninform me. About things as trivial as when summer begins. Sure I'll believe him on Ukraine when he doesn't know the seasons.

We don't let people put their fingers in our food for the dangers that poses. Putting sh!t in people's heads has the potential to do far more damage than fingers in food would do. Since the OP insists on doing so, I just want to remind folks how reality based OP is regarding the smallest simplest of things, like the official beginning of summer, and would come here to BS us about that, pretending to know what they are talking about authoritatively.

sorry it had to be this way...

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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein

@dystopian if I had 9 bots here, you'd have gotten 10 thumbs up.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

snoopydawg's picture

@dystopian

of summer outside the stuff you said? Why yes I’m pretty sure that it is. Just goes to show how wrong this poster usually is. Shitlibs are reporting that Russia is using 85% of its military in Ukraine and has used up most of their weapons too. Like I said the propaganda is very good and it’s why many people think that Russia is losing the fight. Oh and they are just grabbing people off the streets and sending them to Ukraine. Actually that’s what Ukraine is doing because so much of the regular military has been wiped out. Men in bars or stores are detained and sent to military recruiting places as are women of a certain age.

But what will be really funny is that Russia won’t go on to conquer all of Europe as shitlibs are predicting. They might have to clean up a few border countries depending on if NATO starts arming them. Putin stated the goals for what they are going to accomplish. De-militarization and
de-Nazification of Ukraine. Everything else they are accused of doing is just made up garbage to get the shitlibs on board with war and extremely high military budgets whilst this country goes down the crapper. And more people end up living on the streets.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

pswaterspirit's picture

@dystopian 4 th of July is considered widely by those of us who live in the Pacific Northwest to be the official start of summer based on weather patterns. This is when it stops raining and actually gets warm, consistently, since they have been keeping track of such things. We tend to be as much a part of our environment as the elk currently snacking on my rose bush. We seem to have lots people who try to tell us we have to do this or that based on their superior knowledge of everything. They like to tell us how and what to think. How we should do this or that. That they know everything and are superior. The majority of those folks don’t live here, know nothing about the place, and would not know a real forest if they were standing in it. Most of what they are saying would be detrimental to our environmental health and we all know it.
We celebrate the first day of summer on the 4 th of July. Even the local TV stations announce it on the news. I can guess just by that line about the 4th the author is a northwesterner and you are not. Reality is people see things differently everywhere. In the future maybe before you offend whole regions by referring to them as delusional, you might want to consider not everyone lives and thinks as you do. When someone gleefully wishes you happy spring in late May it means they live in Alaska, break up is running a bit late and the iced over rivers are finally flowing. Where we all are we live with the rhythm nature it decides when the seasons start, not the stars, and not you.

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@pswaterspirit I wonder what they do in the southern hemisphere.

I notice the 4th because it seems everyone starts taking vacations about then, and we get the horrible scorching heat waves. By labor day the campgrounds again become available, and there are fewer on the hiking trails. For me labor day is the end of hot days at the beach and the beginning of school.

The unfair part is that the first official by the calendar days of summer, the solstice, is when days begin to get shorter. I water and it's not very light at 5.

I did read part of the comment about me saying the fourth was the beginning of summer. I mostly don't read those kinds of things so it mostly flew by me. Takes all types. Wink

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dystopian's picture

@pswaterspirit IF the OP had said "IN THE PNW" it would be completely different wouldn't it? It would not have meant what it did, had the whole truth been told. This is not a PNW board, it is national and even international. The PNW can call whatever they want summer, which does not make it official to the rest of us. Even if you heard it on the news. It is incredibly egocentric to think others outside that very small area would understand or agree with the statement that July 4 is the official beginning of summer. It would be the wrong answer on any test ever given. How could folks NOT question the sanity of it? Does the PNW not know that is not how others see it?

When you buy a calendar in the PNW does it say 'first day of summer' on July 4? Or does it say that on June 21 or so on the solstice? When you get a Farmers Almanac in the PNW does it not list climatological summer as June July and August? Or astronomical summer as beginning on the solstice? When you go to school in the PNW is it taught in that the official start of summer is July 4, and not the solstice? The PNW summer is not THE OFFICIAL one on a national level (what the c99 audience largely is).

My examples of 'official' summers are widely accepted as such in countless sources no matter where one is in America, or the world for that matter. It seemed like someone might have needed examples of what real official beginnings of summer look like. They have been determined by the scientific governing bodies that attend to such matters. The PNW version of official summer starting July 4 is not recognized officially, or by 9/10 Americans is my guess, much less further afield. What maybe 5% of the land area and population of America has ever heard of this? Ten percent tops? So it is not appropriate since not factually correct outside of a strictly PNW audience, to tout the PNW official beginning of summer as THE official beginning of summer. Y'all should know it is your thing, and most do not see understand it like that. It should be cited as what it is, a PNW thing. Then no one will think y'all are smokin' too many pine needles. To not say so is deceitful because it is not the whole truth. It is half the truth. It is not trying to communicate all the facts of the matter. As such it lacks purity of intent. It is just more of the same trying to stir shat.

It is egocentric, arrogant, authoritarian pontificating to present the PNW start of summer as THE OFFICIAL start of summer to a non PNW audience. The PNW is not the center of the universe. Official well-accepted well-defined terms are relevant *and understandable* no matter where you live, and important if one wants to actually convey facts and truths. That is real cute the PNW made up the dates for their own seasons but to think, speak or act like that makes it official for everyone everywhere else is past ridiculous moving into assinine. It is to disregard what summer is to MOST others, half the nation has felt like they have been in summer since May. All except one tiny area consider July 4 the middle holiday of summer. And people in that tiny area shout at the others that theirs is the official beginning of summer. What do you expect them to think? Billions of calendars say otherwise, and you expect no one should think WTF?

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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein

Pricknick's picture

that cnn and msnbc had a reporter working here.
Not a good look.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

this is not the first time
Do you actually think you have the ability to educate us in the correct interpretation
of the propaganda used to support your views?
The ability to assess conflicting reports presumes critical thought and reasoning
abilities. Not parroting whatever the warmongers want you to believe.
Here's something you won't find in your sources: war is bad, peace is good.
Try to assimilate these facts.

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Doesn't take back Crimea. Because the Russian government will fall and a military coup will take over if that happens.
At that point nuclear weapons are on the table.

But then saying Putin has lost is rediculous.
The only reason Ukraine hasn't already lost is because tens of billions in gifts from the west

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@gjohnsit @gjohnsit @gjohnsit
Putin lost.

He lost whatever legitimacy he had with governments of the world, including China. Oh they'll buy oil from him, but he's never to be trusted again. And China isn't selling him arms.

Putin lost the most casualties in a Russian conflict since WW2, tens of thousands, maybe 30, maybe 50, I'll bet they don't even know, or care.

Putin has lost most of his heavy arms, tanks, etc. His army is now the laughing stock of the world, old technology, things fall apart and don't work, looks like everything is 50 years old. They don't even have anything close to air superiority, against Ukraine on their border no less.

Nato which had been a very loose alliance is now united with Sweden and Norway to join, and Ukraine and Georgia wana bees. I'll bet all the Stans are way nervous.

Economically, I'd think Russia is in for a bad time. Europe is very dependent on his petro, but they will do everything to break loose as soon as they can. Knowing a mad man controls their gas is scary.

Russia today is begging for safe passage of it's soldiers out of Kherson. They are collapsing in the south. Bridges are bombed, they've no way out and no way to get supplies in.

Putin is to losing.

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@ban nock

Putin lost.
He lost whatever legitimacy he had with governments of the world, including China.

And how did he do that? By starting an unprovoked war, right?
You mean like Saudi Arabia did with Yemen? Like how the U.S. has done with Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc?

I'm not saying this for whataboutism. I'm saying this because to be consistent, you have to admit that the U.S. has also lost legitimacy.

Oh they'll buy oil from him, but he's never to be trusted again. And China isn't selling him arms.

Actually China is doing a Hell of a lot more than that with Russia. Including conducting war games with them, and pushing for a competing economic BRICS system.

Putin lost the most casualties in a Russian conflict since WW2, tens of thousands, maybe 30, maybe 50, I'll bet they don't even know, or care.

So if they don't know, how do you know?

Nato which had been a very loose alliance is now united with Sweden and Norway to join, and Ukraine and Georgia wana bees. I'll bet all the Stans are way nervous.

The Stans are way nervous of what? If Russia is a laughing stock then they wouldn't be scared of Russia. The same goes for Sweden and Finland (it's Finland. Norway has been part of NATO for decades). Why would they be scared of a laughing stock?

Europe is very dependent on his petro, but they will do everything to break loose as soon as they can.

Yeh, there's something called physics that you can't just ignore. Europe won't be able to ignore it either.

Knowing a mad man controls their gas is scary.

Ah yes. The mad man Hitler. Funny how everyone political enemy is both Hitler and a madman. And it's always Munich in 1938.

Russia today is begging for safe passage of it's soldiers out of Kherson. They are collapsing in the south. Bridges are bombed, they've no way out and no way to get supplies in.

I just did a search and Ukraine has been declaring victory at Kherson since july 3rd.

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On this thread and elsewhere, there is an ongoing debate over source material and ultimately the objective reality of who is winning the war between Russia and Ukraine. In both sports and war, the only pertinent question is not Who is winning?

What matters is Who won?

In the mean time, I really do not understand the energy and anxiety that animates this utterly irrelevant "debate." I have observed that almost every time this becomes a topic of internet contention -- here and elsewhere -- it is the folks who say that Ukraine is winning who are pushing the discussion.

This strikes me as very weird. If Ukraine is going to force the Russians out of all the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, what does it matter whether random internet posters believe it is going to happen or not? It is exactly like Yankee fans knowing that they will wax the Red Sox. It makes them feel good to shout that truth out in front of Boston fans. But it is really up to Aaron Judge and company to win the fricken ball game.

On the other hand, if the goal is to persuade American citizens to support the effort to assist the Ukrainians, saying that they are winning -- whether true or false -- cuts against that goal.

Whatever.

I'll quote the greatest Geo-Political Strategist of all time, Yogi Berra. "It ain't over until it's over."

.

Turning briefly to the actual dispute about who is winning the war. The OP candidly refers to it as a set of assumptions. Those assumptions have been greeted by pretty much a dog pile of disagreement about the objective reality asserted.

Here is my response:
.

Strawman made out of things that never happened don't work for me.

.

Note the folksy subject and verb disagreement, making me more credible? I love the internet.

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I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

@fire with fire well we can tell who will win by who is winning, or at least it's a good indication.

Support for Ukraine is not so much a popularity contest anyway, though most of America seems to support. It's about our President, congress, and our allies.

What we can determine is what has happened. Most people are ok with agreeing on a broad set of facts. It's when people seek to make their own reality that it gets messed up, just like Trump claiming he won the election, or vaccine denialism. Caucus 99 often seems like I've wandered into an alternate reality complete with CT videos and alternate histories. Except for extreme right wingers, I've yet to hear similar.

Putin has a history, and what he has said and what he has done is a matter of public record. Many on here seem to want to ignore it, why I've no idea. Right winger authoritarians is my guess. How people go from supporting Bernie Sanders to Putin is beyond my ken.

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@ban nock
.

Thanks for replying.

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I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

@ban nock
that c99 doesn't live up to your patriotic ideals. If only we all marched in lockstep, the world would be such a better place, especially for our esteemed politicians who only have our best interests at heart. Right?

How about a c99 diktat that all members MUST think exactly like user ban nock because, of course, you have all the best answers that the AP wire service can supply.

How very un-American of us.

Edit to add: I'm really growing weary of you slamming this site.

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@JtC

Russia, an expansionary fascist state that so many of you fake dirtbag leftists have blinders on for because America is helping Ukraine avoid extermination.

There is such a huge propaganda push to, not so much support Ukraine, but to oppose Russia. It sets off alarm bells to me. The last time the pro-war crowd was this loud we invaded Iraq.

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@gjohnsit I'm not aware of any pro Russia leftists, or none I've read about anyway, only the right wing, and pretty far right at that. I run across Trump supporters in other places and at first they were pro Putin but after the first week or so, no more. I don't watch TV but I don't know what Tucker Carlson thinks, nor do I much care. Is there any particular group of US lefties that support Russia's invasion?

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@ban nock understanding what the US did to push Russia into their military operation, is not pro Putin. It is an understanding of why this is happening, and who caused it.
I hate war. I am a peacemonger. But I understand self defense, and I would expect the USA to take similar action in our defense in similar circumstances.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

@ban nock would approve of, with the lone exception of challenging American hegemony.
He's almost, but not quite, as much of a warhawk as the U.S. is. He's no socialist that I am aware of. Nor is he a friend of liberty.
So the world would be better off without him...except for his challenging American hegemony.
American hegemony is poison, for the environment, for freedom, for peace, and it must be stopped.
It's just too bad the guy challenging it is Putin.

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@gjohnsit US or US/Nato hegemony is quite a lot, no? It's like saying, Sure, other than finding a cure for cancer, what else has he done?

Putin -- certainly no saint, and just as certainly no Hitler or anything remotely such. Most effective leader on the world stage in the past 20 yrs. Or am I forgetting someone? Who do you think has been better? Remember, he went into UKR only as a last resort, when it was obvious that further discussions w the US/Nato/UKR would be futile and as there were clear signs that UKR was about to launch an offensive into the Donbas. Putin also sought an alliance w the US during Obama. But the US public wasn't told about it, thanks to our MSM, and Obama turned him down.

As for Chechnya, you'll have to give me those details. Did he make mistakes? Undoubtedly, esp as he was in the early stages of his presidency. But the terrorist situation there seems to have greatly quieted down, which is a plus. But it's not a subject I'm greatly familiar with.

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@wokkamile

US or US/Nato hegemony is quite a lot, no? It's like saying, Sure, other than finding a cure for cancer, what else has he done?

I think of it more like Stalin challenged Hitler. Putin didn't set out to challenge American hegemony. He had the choice of either challenging it or leaving behind no legacy.

Putin -- certainly no saint, and just as certainly no Hitler or anything remotely such. Most effective leader on the world stage in the past 20 yrs. Or am I forgetting someone? Who do you think has been better?

Putin, considering everything arrayed against him, has been extremely competent. Far more competent than any western leader in my lifetime. And unlike every western leader in my lifetime, Putin actually cares about the fate of Russia. (that's not to say that he isn't brutal in his methods. Only that I consider every American president in the last 45 years to be traitors)
But I would rank one modern leader above Putin for sheer influence - Hugo Chavez.
Chavez changed an entire region.

As for Chechnya, you'll have to give me those details. Did he make mistakes?

There was a lot of war crimes committed in Chechnya.
But even before that I believe that Putin was behind the Moscow apartment bombings. And then there was the mishandling of the terrorist hostage crisis, such as the Moscow theater and the Belsan school.

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snoopydawg's picture

@ban nock

You are the one who has continued to ignore what Putin said for why he started the military operation. I have posted a link to his speech which you ignore and I posted 2 of his goals again here. Now who is making up his own reality. CB has also posted some great stuff, but apparently his comments are too long for you to read so you stay misinformed about what is happening in Ukraine. But sure pretend that it’s everyone but you who is stupid on this site.

Every time you have posted about Ukraine here the comments point out how misinformed YOU are, not us. And if it bothers you so much then why stay here just to insult those you disagree with? Like you did in the comment I’m replying to.

This conflict could have easily been avoided, but it’s been the goal to own Russia since the end of WW2. When the USSR broke up Clinton had the chance to turn to peace. Instead he and those who followed him have expanded NATO so it could threaten Russia. Russia decided that letting Ukraine join was a direct threat to their country. Just like putting nukes in Cuba was a threat to us. If you can’t see that then you are being willfully blind. Again think about Russia overthrowing Mexico’s president and filling the country with Russian weapons that could hit Washington in 5 minutes. You think we’d tolerate that? Be honest.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@snoopydawg I've read translations of Putin's off the cuff hours long monologue. He's an imperialist, and wants all of Ukraine, and also slightly crazy. To tell you the truth I don't much read long comments that seem antagonistic or link to dubious sources. I assume you write for others to read, not me.

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@ban nock you don't read very deeply.
Remain forever ignorant, ban nock. Not a problem for me. Might be for you, unless you have friends in high places, and your bills guaranteed paid.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

snoopydawg's picture

@ban nock

I write for you. Why would I write for someone else? I’m not responsible for you having the attention span of a gnat and can’t read long comments. But would you read them if they just post a link? Probably not because only your AP propaganda source is true for you. Only you can decide to read comments and see if you learn something or not. But not reading them is what is keeping you so ignorant of the facts and believing that the propaganda you are reading is true. Just why can’t you read comments longer than your attention span? Just what is your point then to keep posting your propaganda here? Why not go somewhere where people will think you are a genius for the crap you post here? This I do not get. You get owned every time you post here but keep doing it and if you keep doing it you’ll continue to show that you have swallowed the government’s propaganda hook, line and sinker. It’s people like you that are their target audience.

Time will tell if what you think Russia is going to do happens or not. I’m not holding out for a mea culpa from you if you are proven wrong.

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7 users have voted.

Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@fire with fire

The fact that the conflict is not over itself is relevant because people acting in our name are largely responsible for the fact that it *isn't*.

There's also the matter that, although we are not (yet) experiencing the business end of kinetic war, ordinary Americans, Europeans and others are, in fact, losing. Losing economically, losing in terms of credibility, military capability (that there might actually be some legitimate need for elsewhere) degraded, the list goes on.

Maybe most importantly, losing the opportunity to have peaceful and productive relations with people and countries that is being denied us by these serially ginned-up conflicts.

So, as this crap is being carried out in our name, we have some responsibility not only to the innocent people being slaughtered and displaced on the ground but to OURSELVES to voice some opposition to the lies and madness and rein in the warmongers.

Note that the propaganda machine is trying, and not without effect, to induce the sheeple to lump skepticism about vax/Covid policy, election integrity and opposition to forever war in Ukraine together representing a deranged existential threat that likely needs to be expunged violently.

Note, too, that the people who got this conflict going - through the Maidan coup and subsequent anti-Russian actions - are literally the same people who brought you Russiagate, the failed impeachment attempts against Trump, and the current congressional J-6 show trial.

https://www.revolver.news/2020/09/meet-norm-eisen-legal-hatchet-man-and-...

Would it be cynical to believe that possibly they are not going to all that trouble just because they have your best interests at heart and want to make the world a better place?

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@Blue Republic Not sure if you realize it but Russia invaded Ukraine.

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CB's picture

@ban nock
"FUCK the EU!" - Victoria Nuland
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSxaa-67yGM]

The US has a shameful history of meddling in Ukraine
February 3, 2022

The current narrative on Russia and Ukraine is simple: Russia is big and aggressive. Ukraine is a small, harmless state just minding its own business. Russia wants to reconstitute its old Soviet empire, and Ukraine is now in its crosshairs.

But a lot more than that is going on. The U.S. spouts lots of freedom and national sovereignty talk, but in fact, it has a long history of meddling in the weak post-Soviet state, which is so corrupt that it can't get into NATO and has poisonous internal politics. For years, Ukraine has been like a cat's plaything to outside forces, and the U.S. is no stranger to it.

"The extent of the Obama administration's meddling in Ukraine politics was breathtaking," wrote the CATO Institute's Ted Galen Carpenter, in a clear discussion of the extent of U.S. involvement in the coup that overthrew Ukraine's President Yanukovych.
...
What actually occurred is that the Obama-era assistant secretary of state, Victoria Nuland, working with Geoffrey Pyatt, our ambassador to Ukraine at the time, manipulated the political situation in the overthrow of the democratically elected president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, whose sin was that he favored a realistic relationship between his government and Russia, when interlopers from the U.S., notably Sen. John McCain, urged anti-government demonstrators in Kiev, in December 2013, to bring Ukraine into the West's orbit.
...

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@Blue Republic
.

for one detail.

This war is bullshit coming and going. It is an intentional disaster for the US and its alleged allies who are simultaneously bankrupting ourselves while doing nothing but forcing hell on earth to the truly cursed people of Ukraine.

Where we may be in disagreement is whether the interim battle reports have any significance whatsoever. The American and NATO side does not care what happens to Ukraine and they will continue with this suicidal policy no matter how the battles go. According to Ban Nock and his sources, Ukraine will fight until it kicks Russia out of every square foot of turf that used to be in Ukraine. That is not going to happen any time soon. My money is on never. So this economic suicidal sanctions regime will never end, until we give up.

A recipe for disaster for the entire planet.

My post was a specific response to the discussion provoked by Ban Nock who continues to argue for accounts of Ukrainian success -- poorly documented at best and just made up out of bile and bullshit for the most part. Rather than take the bait, and argue that Russia is "winning" I condemn American policy as both insane and motivated by other considerations than our government proclaims.

I believe that this voice and all similar voices on the net are totally disingenuous. Their goal is to paint the dispute as a question of Russia's behavior -- as Ban Nock put it, it is up to "western liberal democracies" to "allow" other countries to do only what "we" deem appropriate. A fantasy of infinite power is the subtext of every word this character posts on this board. The stubborn refusal to join issue directly on anything is the tell that we are not facing somebody who really wants to persuade anybody of anything.

The authors of the propaganda never discuss the feasibility of "weakening" Russia. Nor do they discuss the point of weakening Russia other than asserting that Putin has a mental illness that makes him want to conquer the whole world -- or some such blue sky fantasy.

Finally, the war in Ukraine itself should be called American Cowardice. Ban Nock and their allies shamelessly argue that Russia is just like Nazi Germany, bent on global domination. But of course we can't get involved directly. At least not yet. No, we are only supporting Ukraine for long term tactical reasons. Yes, we will fight Hitler II to the last Ukrainian.

They can't have it both ways unless we let them have it both ways. Russia cannot be an existential threat but not such a threat as to oblige us to get our own ass in the cross hairs of this hopelessly inept Russian military that is losing this fight they started.

The contradictory bullshit is more clever than it looks. It gets people to explain why Russia will win this war. Mission accomplished for the propagandist.

Best response to the Ban Nock claims -- who cares?

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I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

janis b's picture

@fire with fire

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CB's picture

Who started this conflict in 2014? It was the US staging a coup in Kiev. From your post at this site, it is painfully obvious that you do not have a fucking clue of how the conflict in Ukraine started. All you can do is parrot the DKos "Putin bad", "Russia bad" fucking bullshit!

Here, educate yourself. This MSM source should be acceptable for you:

It's not Russia that's pushed Ukraine to the brink of war
Wed 30 Apr 2014
The attempt to lever Kiev into the western camp by ousting an elected leader made conflict certain. It could be a threat to us all

The threat of war in Ukraine is growing. As the unelected government in Kiev declares itself unable to control the rebellion in the country's east, John Kerry brands Russia a rogue state. The US and the European Union step up sanctions against the Kremlin, accusing it of destabilising Ukraine. The White House is reported to be set on a new cold war policy with the aim of turning Russia into a "pariah state".

That might be more explicable if what is going on in eastern Ukraine now were not the mirror image of what took place in Kiev a couple of months ago. Then, it was armed protesters in Maidan Square seizing government buildings and demanding a change of government and constitution. US and European leaders championed the "masked militants" and denounced the elected government for its crackdown, just as they now back the unelected government's use of force against rebels occupying police stations and town halls in cities such as Slavyansk and Donetsk.

"America is with you," Senator John McCain told demonstrators then, standing shoulder to shoulder with the leader of the far-right Svoboda party as the US ambassador haggled with the state department over who would make up the new Ukrainian government.

When the Ukrainian president was replaced by a US-selected administration, in an entirely unconstitutional takeover, politicians such as William Hague brazenly misled parliament about the legality of what had taken place: the imposition of a pro-western government on Russia's most neuralgic and politically divided neighbour.
...
So you don't hear much about the Ukrainian government's veneration of wartime Nazi collaborators and pogromists, or the arson attacks on the homes and offices of elected communist leaders, or the integration of the extreme Right Sector into the national guard, while the anti-semitism and white supremacism of the government's ultra-nationalists is assiduously played down, and false identifications of Russian special forces are relayed as fact.

The reality is that, after two decades of eastward Nato expansion, this crisis was triggered by the west's attempt to pull Ukraine decisively into its orbit and defence structure, via an explicitly anti-Moscow EU association agreement. Its rejection led to the Maidan protests and the installation of an anti-Russian administration – rejected by half the country – that went on to sign the EU and International Monetary Fund agreements regardless.

No Russian government could have acquiesced in such a threat from territory that was at the heart of both Russia and the Soviet Union. Putin's absorption of Crimea and support for the rebellion in eastern Ukraine is clearly defensive, and the red line now drawn: the east of Ukraine, at least, is not going to be swallowed up by Nato or the EU.
...
In fact, one outcome of the crisis is likely to be a closer alliance between China and Russia, as the US continues its anti-Chinese "pivot" to Asia. And despite growing violence, the cost in lives of Russia's arms-length involvement in Ukraine has so far been minimal compared with any significant western intervention you care to think of for decades.

The risk of civil war is nevertheless growing, and with it the chances of outside powers being drawn into the conflict. Barack Obama has already sent token forces to eastern Europe and is under pressure, both from Republicans and Nato hawks such as Poland, to send many more. Both US and British troops are due to take part in Nato military exercises in Ukraine this summer.

The US and EU have already overplayed their hand in Ukraine. Neither Russia nor the western powers may want to intervene directly, and the Ukrainian prime minister's conjuring up of a third world war presumably isn't authorised by his Washington sponsors. But a century after 1914, the risk of unintended consequences should be obvious enough – as the threat of a return of big-power conflict grows. Pressure for a negotiated end to the crisis is essential.

Who exacerbated this conflict in Ukraine in February 2022?

https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/osce-reports-reveal-ukraine-started
The Biden Administration, U.S. political officials, and the corporate media are lying the American public into World War III.
Jun 17, 2022

American history is replete with examples of politicians, the corporate media, and the military-industrial complex using lies, false pretenses, and propaganda to sell war to a public that would otherwise be hesitant to send their sons and daughters off to fight on foreign soil.
...
It is important to remember that the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine started in 2014 after the Obama administration and U.S. Congress members installed a new government in Ukraine, in what the head of the “private CIA” firm Stratfor called “the most blatant coup in history.”

In response to the U.S.-backed coup, the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the Donbas held a referendum on seceding from Ukraine, in which 96% of Luhansk and 89% of Donetsk voted for the creation of two new self-described independent republics in eastern Ukraine.

Moscow said the vote reflected the "will of the people," but the European Union called the elections "illegal and illegitimate", which quickly turned violent and descended into an all-out conflict between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatist forces of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Between 2014 and 2022 the War in Donbas killed an estimated 14,000 people, forcing millions of people to flee the region, and turning the conflict zone into one of the world’s most mine-contaminated areas.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has had observers on-the-ground monitoring the situation in Donbas since the outbreak of open conflict began in 2014.

The OSCE has been the only international civilian observer mission allowed to collect information from both sides of the contact line, and its data, while incomplete, remains the best available.

The OSCE observer mission provides maps in daily reports documenting the location of ceasefire violations and explosions along the contact line between the Ukrainian military and the Donbas republics.

These maps clearly show that Ukraine began artillery strikes against the Donbas republics on February 16th, 2022.

In other words, Ukraine began shelling the independent republics of Donetsk and Luhansk nine days before Russia announced its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.

While the western corporate media remained completely silent, explosions documented by the OSCE increased from 76 on February 15th, to 316 on February 16th, to 654 on February 17th, and to 1,413 on February 18th.

When you look carefully at the daily maps of these explosions, it is clear that the vast majority of explosions occurred on the Russian separatist side of the ceasefire line.

Feb 14: 174 ceasefire violations, 41 explosions

Feb 15: 153 ceasefire violations, 76 explosions

Feb 16: 509 ceasefire violations, 316 explosions

Feb 17: 870 ceasefire violations, 654 explosions

Feb 18: 1,566 ceasefire violations, 1,413 explosions

Feb 19-20: 3,231 ceasefire violations, 2,026 explosions

Feb 21: 1,927 ceasefire violations, 1,481 explosions

Feb 21: Russia recognizes independence of Donetsk and Luhansk

Feb 22: 1,710 ceasefire violations, 1,420 explosions

Feb 24: Russia launches ‘special military operation’

DKos was wrong about Afghanistan, wrong about Iraq, wrong about The Arab Spring, wrong about Libya, wrong about Syria, wrong about China, wrong about Russia-gate, wrong about Ukraine and now wrong about Russia.

I suggest you don't drag this unverified DKos shit into C99% unless you can back up your data with at least a minimum of cites.

(Of course, I don't expect you to read any of this. After all, it will take more than 1 1/2 minutes.)

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@CB I'd recommend you stop reading DK, and your comments are tldr. Nothing is proven to me by anger and cursing nor using wild sources.

here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War

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CB's picture

@ban nock

using wild sources

For FUCK sake... the sources I used were MSM:
The Guardian https://www.newspapersland.com/united-kingdom/#top-newspapers

and reports from the OSCE. The OSCE is an independent source which works with the US feds:

US Mission to the OSCE

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

With 57 States drawn from Europe, Central Asia and America, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is the world’s largest regional security organization, bringing comprehensive and co-operative security to a region that stretches from Vancouver to Vladivostok.

It offers a forum for political negotiations and decision-making in the fields of early warning, conflict prevention, crisis management and post-conflict rehabilitation, and puts the political will of the participating States into practice through its unique network of field missions.

The OSCE approach to security is comprehensive and cooperative: comprehensive in dealing with a wide range of security-related issues including arms control, preventive diplomacy, confidence- and security-building measures, human rights, democratization, election monitoring and economic and environmental security; cooperative in the sense that all OSCE participating States have equal status. Decisions are taken by consensus on a politically, but not legally binding basis.
...
Our Relationship

The U.S. Mission to the OSCE represents the interests of the United States government in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The United States strongly supports the work of the OSCE and views it as the paramount instrument for building a region of stable, open societies in which every country lives at peace with its neighbors. The U.S. Mission to the OSCE engages with the diplomatic representatives of the other participating States and with OSCE staff in promotion of this vision.

The OSCE is a major forum for issues of peace, security and human rights in Europe and Central Asia. A legacy of the historic 1975 Helsinki accords, it is the only fully inclusive trans-Atlantic/European/Eurasian political organization. Every state from Andorra to Kyrgyzstan is represented among its 57 participating States. Over more than thirty years, commitments to democracy, rule of law, human rights, tolerance, pluralism and media freedoms were hammered out at the OSCE and its predecessor mechanisms — and agreed to by all the participating States. The OSCE is unique among international organizations in the acceptance by the participating States of the principle that open societies built on human rights and democracy are a necessary component of true security.
...

So what's your FUCKING excuse for not reading these reports now?

Everyone knows WIKI is useless for any information the runs contrary to the establishment.

Wikipedia co-founder says site is now ‘propaganda’ for left-leaning ‘establishment’
July 16, 2021

Wikipedia co-founder Larry Sanger has warned that the website can no longer be trusted — insisting it is now just “propaganda” for the left-leaning “establishment.”

Sanger told UnHerd’s Lockdown TV Wednesday that he started the “encyclopedia of opinion” in 2001 purely on the basis it would offer true neutrality and offer “multiple points of view” on “hot button issues.”

Now, he insisted, conservative voices are “sternly warned if not kicked out” if they try to add a different take on establishment views — which Sanger deemed “propaganda.”
...
Now you can only rely on the site to “to give an establishment point of view,” rather than the diverse range of opinions it was set up to give, he insisted.

“If only one version of the facts is allowed then that gives a huge incentive to wealthy and powerful people to seize control of things like Wikipedia in order to shore up their power,” he said.
...
“And they do that,” he continued. “There’s a very big, nasty, complex game being played behind the scenes to make the article say what somebody wants them to say.

Sanger said there are “all sorts of tricks people can play to win it,” including the use of dedicated PR companies to influence listings.
...

Swearing? You ain't seen nothing yet. Here's what a young Ukrainian women thinks of the Zelensky regime in Ukraine who are skimming untold millions from the tens of billions the US taxpayers have sent while their ordinary soldiers are coming home with no arms or no legs or in a body bag.

Have a good day! Good

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@ban nock

as they generally are (when they don't involve China) are fine.

Wikipedia should be read and cited with caution, it is systematically edited to slant to pro-narrative viewpoints on controversial topics.

For instance, as many have pointed out to you, the Euromaidan coup of 2014 - which the current conflict stems from - was substantially engineered by US intelligence under the Obama Administration. Yet the Wiki discussion of Euromaidan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan

only gives a single passing mention to accusation of foreign involvement - when the neo-libs were involved up to their eyeball.

It also states as completely factual that all the demonstrators that were shot were shot by police forces and fails to mention the many accounts of at least some having been killed by mercenary forces of the anti-government side.

Ironic, but not unexpected that Victoria Nuland and others on the Obama team who were instrumental in implementing a real violent, white-supremacist insurrection against a democratically elected government now want to arrest Trump - accusing him and his (overwhelmingly peaceful) supporters of insurrection over a single mostly peaceful demonstration... What violence did occur on J6 being mostly provoked by police violence and provocateurs.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wetleAB1XmY]

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@Blue Republic I'm sorry but I'll stick with Wiki. Telling me of CIA plots is a big turn off. I don't do CT.

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snoopydawg's picture

@ban nock

You are just not aware of it. The mainstream media has long been captured by the defense industry and every big business and its why only 9 men own all mainstream media sources including the AP. CT/propaganda is there any difference? There’s none in my mind.

If you want a good rundown on how Russia is doing in Ukraine here’s an excellent essay on it. But since you have already dismissed the author I doubt you will even open it.

https://thesaker.is/five-months-into-the-special-military-operation-a-su...

But it got even worse. Far from being deterred by western promises of fire and brimstone, the Russian then proceeded to methodically destroy the Ukrainian armed forces. In spite of the Ukrainian military being the best proxy force in US history, in spite of BILLIONS given to the Nazi regime each month, in spite of all sorts of super-dooper Wunderwaffen deliveries, in spite of economic warfare, Russia is now pounding the Ukie+western forces in the Ukraine day after day after day and while the US is ordering the Ukrainians to fight to the end and never withdraw, the many waves of Volkssturm reinforcements have had no impact on Russian warfighting capabilities.

Hope that isn’t too long for your attention span?

Guess I forgot. You already know everything about how Ukraine is going to kick Russia out of Ukraine. Boy are you in for a surprise.

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5 users have voted.

Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

CB's picture

An excellent discussion as to the futility of US supplied HIMARS in the Ukraine conflict. Russia has a superior system in much greater quantities.

Janes - Ukraine conflict: Russian forces employ guided rockets

Evidence is emerging from the conflict in Ukraine appearing to show that Russian forces are utilizing guided rockets – the 9M544 and 9M549 – with video and photographs of the remains of these types appearing across social media.

The 9M544 and 9M549 are understood to be the latest guided rockets fired from Russia's Tornado-S system. According to official information, these have a range of 120 km and a circular error probable (CEP) of 5–10 m. Images of rocket fragments with the guidance and control unit code 9B706 have appeared in areas where the 9K515 Tornado-S multiple rocket launch (MRL) system has been active.
...
Russia deploys the Tornado-S system, or complex, in brigades of four battalions. A battalion consists of three batteries with four launchers in each. Accompanying each launcher is a 9T234-2 trans loader vehicle based on the MAZ-543A 8×8 chassis, and this carries 12 rounds and is equipped with a crane.

Apart from the 12 launchers, the Tornado-S battalion includes the battalion and battery 1K 123 Vivary FCS and command-and-control (C2) units, which are housed in a K4310 fully enclosed box unit mounted on a KamAZ-4310 6 × 6 truck chassis. Each of these has its own power generator and a secure data and radio communications system that will support VHF communications to a range of 50 km and HF communications to a range of 350 km. The elements of the Vivary FCS can undertake automated or non-automated command-and-control of a Smerch-equipped MRL brigade.
...
In addition to the guided rockets, the Tornado-S can fire 9M55K rockets that carry 73 HE frag 9N235 or 9N210 bomblets, the anti-armour parachute retarded MOTIV-3F top attack 9M55K1 rocket, the anti-tank mine laying 9M55K4, the thermobaric fuel air explosive 9M55S, and the 9M55K7, which has a high-explosive anti-tank warhead, among others. These rockets also have extended range versions that enable them to engage targets at a range of 90 km.

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orlbucfan's picture

thought Kiev was a Russian city. Then I went back and looked at history and realized my mistake. I wish the RF and what's left of Ukraine would sit down at the (oh, the horror) peace table. Won't happen as too many international craporate interests like the MICC here are cleaning up $$$$$$$$$$$. There are no winners in this one. Why do I think that? I'm a lifelong peacenik, and then there is the matter of Chernobyl. Neither Russia nor Ukraine had any military reason to send young folks into that radioactive hellhole. Neither gained any advantage. A lot of victims suffering from fatal doses of radiation poisoning were bused out of that zone, and the rest cleared out. You all familiar with radiation poisoning? It's a nasty form of death, worse than dying from bullets or shrapnel. I'm over the screaming bought media here over this conflict. It's worse than Iraq cos the media is louder and more hysterical. Anywho, interesting discussion. FWIW.

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Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.

CB's picture

@orlbucfan
to understanding the Ukraine conflict.

Minsk II: Two Words You’ll Never Hear on Mainstream News
by Walt Zlotow Posted on April 23, 2022

Ask a hundred Americans and you’ll be lucky to find even one who’s ever heard of Minsk II. But ask those same Americans how the Ukraine war started, and you’ll likely get "Russian President Putin woke up one day and decided to re-establish the Soviet empire, starting with Ukraine."

That is because our government and its slavishly loyal media have created a false narrative for maximum propaganda to support pouring billions in weaponry into the Ukraine war zone, ensuring that death and destruction will proceed endlessly.

Minsk II was the 2015 agreement hammered out by Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany to end the civil war in Ukraine between the pro west, ultra nationalist government and the pro Russian Ukrainians in the eastern Donbas provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk.
...
Thus began the civil war in the Donbas that has killed over 14,000 Ukrainians in Kiev’s effort to subjugate and marginalize the hated Russian leaning Ukrainians. And leading the carnage for the past 3 years is current president Volodymyr Zelensky. Calling him the new Churchill doesn’t quite fit.

But Ukraine had an off ramp from civil war early on in the form of the Minsk and then the Minsk II agreements in 2014 and 2015. The latter called for autonomy for the breakaway provinces Donetsk and Lugansk, amnesty to the combatants and representation in the Ukraine government.

But goaded by the US and the ultra nationalists with the real power, both post coup presidents Poroshenko and Zelensky opted to continue the civil war to both retake the breakaway provinces and recapture the Crimea, seized by Russia after the 2014 coup threatened their naval base at Sebastopol in the Crimea.
...
Millions of words have been spilled by our government and our media framing this war as the madman in the Kremlin and his dreams of a reconstituted Soviet empire. But they could do better with just two words that Ukraine and US refused to honor and implement: Minsk II.

Minsk Agreement 2 or Minsk II (Full Text Agreement)

Minsk II (Minsk Agreement Two) refers to the list of measures focused or meant to stop the fights in the Donbas, that was agreed to on on 12 February 2015. The full text of the Minsk II agreement is as follows:

1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.
...
4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
...
9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
...
11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.

12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
...
Signatories:

  • Former President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma as a representative of Ukraine
  • Switzerland's diplomat Heidi Tagliavini to represent The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)
  • Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov as a Russian representative.
  • Rebel heads Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky

The US understood that the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts were overwhelmingly Russian speakers (as was Crimea) so they ensured that the Minsk agreements would not be honoured by the federal government in Kiev. In fact, the Ukrainian government passed a law outlawing the Russian language - including in all schools.

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5 users have voted.

@CB

The US understood that the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts were overwhelmingly Russian speakers (as was Crimea) so they ensured that the Minsk agreements would not be honoured by the federal government in Kiev.

The Donbass was a majority Russian speaking region, but it wasn't overwhelming. It was more in the area of 60% Russian. Crimea, OTOH, was well over 80% Russian speaking.

In fact, the Ukrainian government passed a law outlawing the Russian language - including in all schools.

That's not totally accurate either. The law mandated Ukrainian language, in a way similar to how some U.S. states mandate the English language, but it didn't outlaw Russian. However, considering that Ukraine had 30% Russian speakers, this was not a wise move.

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@orlbucfan

Y'know, for a while there, I thought Kiev was a Russian city. Then I went back and looked at history and realized my mistake.

The birthplace of Russia is the Kievan Rus in the 9th Century.
However, the Kievan Rus was completely destroyed by the Mongols in the 13th Century. At which point the Russian identity switch to Novgorad, and then eventually to Moscow and Leningrad.

I wish the RF and what's left of Ukraine would sit down at the (oh, the horror) peace table. Won't happen as too many international craporate interests like the MICC here are cleaning up $$$$$$$$$$$. There are no winners in this one

The weapons industry (aka merchants of death) disagrees.

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TheOtherMaven's picture

@gjohnsit

to not destroy Novgorod. He had enough troubles with the Teutonic Knights in the West, at least until he kicked their butts in 1242, and didn't need any more enemies.

So Novgorod survived, under very nominal Mongol supervision, and eventually budded off a trading post at Moscow, which gradually became bigger and more important than its parent city.

As for Kiev...it got rebuilt, eventually, but not until the Muscovites were able to remove the "Mongol Yoke".

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.