The March of Folly continues: Putin invades Ukraine
So Putin has launched the attack.
Russian troops launched their anticipated attack on Ukraine on Thursday, as President Vladimir Putin cast aside international condemnation and sanctions and warned other countries that any attempt to interfere would lead to “consequences you have never seen.”
Big explosions were heard before dawn in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as world leaders decried the start of an invasion that could cause massive casualties, topple Ukraine’s democratically elected government and threaten the post-Cold War balance on the continent.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law, saying Russia has targeted Ukraine’s military infrastructure.
Of course, it could have all been easily avoided were not the U.S. and the Ukraine run by fools.
What Putin Wants From Ukraine
The fact is that there have been many speeches over the years by Putin acknowledging full Ukrainian sovereignty since the 1991 breakup of the former Soviet Union, an authoritarian state in which Ukrainian Communists had played a major leadership role. Putin consistently has asked for two things of Ukraine.
First, decent good-neighborly relations based on mutual respect and mutual security, as between the U.S. and Canada. And second, as in Canada, respect for the full human rights of Ukraine’s numerous “French Canadians” – the 50-percent-plus of Ukrainians who share Russian native language and culture. This importantly includes a right to share in the formation of Ukraine’s national security policies and priorities. But the U.S. has at least since 2013 used Ukraine’s Nazis, and there are plenty of those, as the spearhead of its determination to make Ukraine monocultural, militarized and permanently hostile to Russia.
Just because Putin asserts these things does not mean they are not true.
Of course, that last part will be too nuanced for the rabid warmongers on the left and right. The same people who cried "Anti-vaxxers" will now be crying "Putin apologist". Despite being warned time and again that nazi's in Ukraine was probably not going to end well.
So how is this war likely to go? If the U.S.does not send troops, then Stratfor Intelligence advanced several likely scenarios about seven years ago. A Russian invasion of the Ukraine should look like this:
[video:https://youtu.be/LCMn-WDTIf8]
In the video above, they discuss several scenarios. We are only interested in the final scenario. It starts at the 3:40 mark of the video.
Two things are missing from the Stratfor analysis: The Russians are landing an amphibious force at Odessa and they've stationed an additional 100,000 troops in Belarus. If those troops drive down past Lviv, (pinning it down along the way) and link up with Odessa, they will have encircled the Ukrainian forces and that, as they say, will be that.
Comments
That February 24th will be an interesting day is an
understatement.
Who knows what will happen?
I have my doubts that Putin will blink!
Update: Christopher Miller of Buzzfeed confirms
that the Belorusan border is being crossed by Russians and troops from Belarus.
I am not smart enough to know the answer. Who is correct?
Maybe somebody could help me out.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550435-ukrainian-troops-laying-down-weapons/
See this guy's twitter for relatively reliable info
https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1496746695778000896
I have my doubts that anyone involved with OSINT is
What I would call a reliable source. That is almost like trusting what bellingcat says.
Edited: To add that Ukrainian sources said that they shot down 5 airplanes and one helicopter.
Baghdad Bob, PhychoSaki, Ned Peirce and Jake Sullivan are identical in what they preach.
Unreliable sources predicted Putin wouldn't invade
. . . which included me.
I'm flabbergasted.
I only comment what I come across doesn't mean it is true.
Anybody here have Russian stocks?
@Wally
Check the European and North American futures and also the price of gold and oil.
BTW back and forth is good and I agreed with your previous comments for the most part when you we active.
I'm in the dark as much as anybody
Maybe more so.
I'm just trying to figure shit out.
Thanks for all your work here.
I still like your contributions glad to see you once again
participating. Your incites could prove to be wecolmed when the dems surely become a minority party and the likely hood of dementia Joe's impeachment becomes a reality.
@humphrey I hope you meant
I hope you meant to say insights. As in, your insights prevented war, not you incited a war.
Probably my last comment of the night but this is a possibility.
Ukraine might soon become a landlocked country.
Already is
if we listen to Pepe Escobar.
NYCVG
On the bright side,
concerns about global warming may soon become needless worry. If there is enough particulate matter launched into the upper atmosphere, globule temperatures will begin a significant downturn. Hopefully the dose will be just right.
The collective wisdom of humanity continues to underwhelm. I can only hope the insanity of our M.A.D. policy actually works and that Branden isn’t actually making any decisions.
I’ll be outside most of today, finishing up a project. I figure it will be a while before we find out what is actually going on.
I can wait.
“ …and when we destroy nature, we diminish our capacity to sense the divine,and understand who God is, and what our own potential is and duties are as human beings.- RFK jr. 8/26/2024
Looked up the location of Belarus
Since it was mentioned in the articles, but didn't see it on the maps ..
The country is aligned politically with Russia, not so much with Poland in my understanding.
Correct me if I am wrong. The geopolitical wrangling of eastern Europe are beyond my ken.
Well, apparently
Russian forces have now taken Chernobyl/Pripyat, so they aren't very far from rolling into Kyiv- only 100km or so. Wonder if they'll trash the New Safe Confinement structure there, which was only finished and put in place in July of 2019... There's no earthly reason to do so, but then who knows what is going to happen next? They own their own mess again, anyway.
As the old Chinese curse goes: we live in interesting times.
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
For the more geography challenged, here is a map
I added Belarus to it and added what I think is the actual Russian invasion plan. The reports on the ground seem to bear this out. It is my own personal opinion that they will eventually link up from Kyiv to Odessa, but the strategy seems sound.
However, they could also use the capture of Odessa and Kiev to roll up the flanks along the Dnieper and take out all opposition that way instead. This latter strategy would roll back the defenses methodically, but leave the supply lines open and allow the reserves to commit. A quick blitz and encirclement as I think they'll attempt has it's own risks but would quickly cause the entire Ukranian front to collapse as ammo and supplies run out.
This would be a great time for China
to go after Taiwan if they wanted to tie up the US like a pretzel. The US has meddled (is still meddling) all over the world. While Russia invading the Ukraine would be like us invading Mexico or Canada, we have sort of done the same to Cuba with the Bay of Pigs. We have lost the high ground since WW2 in so many conflicts, following the Capitalist Party to hell, all the while waving flags and bibles. The sad part is no matter how it turns out, and no matter how many lives are lost, the Capitalist Party will win, they always win, and we will lose.
Update
The Russians flew 34 helicopters to Hostomel airport and dropped paratroopers. The russians took the critically important airfield near Kiev. The Ukranians counter attacked and retook the airfield. They also wiped out a column of Russian mechanized infantry that had come in to occupy the airfield. As of two hours ago, the Russians are sending in a second wave of helicopters to paradrop more troops in.
To the north, Kharkiv looks to have fallen quickly to armor that is now racing towards Kiev, however the Ukranians blew two bridges to slow them down.
The initial attack on Cherniev (sp?) was repelled but a larger armored column is now coming to engage. Meanwhile, having failed to take Hostomel, paratroopers were dropped south of Cherniev, probably in support of the armored column coming down.
Where are you getting your news?
I’m trying to find sites that are credible but not having much luck. No American media and RT is hit and miss. Sputnik?
Was Humpty Dumpty pushed?
Two sites
Liveuamap.com and UKrStreams.tv
Looking at the situation now, looks like the russians took that airfield and are now fighting near the Kiev zoo.
Other forces are moving in from the other side of the river.
I'm guessing Kiev falls in a day or two.
You can glean much from what
You can glean much from what you don't see on those maps.
Yesterday, armored columns were sweeping down from Sumy Oblast region. Today nothing near there.
Either the tanks stopped to refuel or they brokethrough and are nearing the river.
I'd guess the latter.
Either way, there are no more
reports of Ukranian resistance