that Wisconsin residents are sick and tired of Scott Walker and the morass that WI politics has become and vote for a shot at real change.

I posted a comment yesterday with a link to the extremely byzantine delegate selection process in place in Wisconsin.

Momentum May Matter (Just This Once) In Wisconsin

micah: Yeah, mark down this moment “Nate Silver Endorses The Big Mo’!”
harry: Nate has gone mainstream media. Sad day for journalism.
natesilver: Just for the Republicans, though! I don’t think momentum matters that much for the Democrats.

natesilver: Bernie winning by 15 would be a big deal, but not a huge, epic surprise. Like a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, not an 8.0.
... With all that said, the contrarian devil on my shoulder is saying that since it seems obvious to everyone that Sanders will beat his polls in Wisconsin, maybe we’re heading for a Clinton upset instead.

Is 538 in the Bag for Hillary?

I’ve based several articles on Silver’s flawed analyses of the primary races and have predicted a Clinton win, as most MSM pundits have, because Sanders doesn’t have and won’t get the delegates he needs to win in the upcoming big primary contests in New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey. I’ve never been more pleased to admit that I just may be wrong.

Enter Doug Hatlem, ... Hatlem’s peregrinations have quixotically led him to stop and consider numbers: specifically, the old adage about lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Hatlem claims that in 18 of 21 states outside the South, Silver’s predictions have a pro-Clinton bias of 12.5%. He bases his analysis from what polls predicted, on what 538 forecasted, and on the results from those primaries.

Was there a DPW pollwatcher present? In a rare fit of feeling the need to do something, the Dem Party of WI has been soliciting volunteers to poll-watch, to record issues with Walker's/Koch's voter ID law. I was #256 in my small, rural township (an hour SW of Madison) and it was interesting to see a pollwatcher present. While I was there, no one had problems as they had WI licenses, but the general feeling here is rightfully anti-Walker for the id law.

Did your poll workers offer to register the MN license guy on the spot? He would have had to have other items with him (the stupid list--most college ids are not ok, but a concealed carry permit is!) but they should have at least offered, I think.

Glad to say our township, like many others, is scrupulous about counting and reporting the vote--everyone is encouraged to be present after polls close and to observe the count and the "call in" when the totals are reported to the county clerk. I am so nervous about vote reporting elsewhere--both from Clinton dirty tricks, and from the expected voter suppression from the Repugs.

Some places are predicting GE levels. Dane County could be 60-70%, versus 50% in 2008 primary.