So I wrote a diary responding to the 'Why Hillary is Winning' stuff.

Here it is for those of you who won't see it over there.

If you really want to understand why Clinton may very well not win

Pretty much everyone agrees that she had every single advantage a candidate could wish for going into this campaign. Yet, here we are in April and she doesn’t have it locked. In fact, the momentum is going against her. Why is that? Why?

Well, here’s the thing. The vast majority of eligible voters in this country do not follow politics day in and day out over decades. In that respect, the vast majority of eligible voters in this country do not look like Daily Kos bloggers and commenters.

What 50% of the eligible voters in this country look like is responsible, moral people trying to provide for themselves and their families on less than $53k a year household income. It is totally not helpful for a presidential candidate who occasionally professes to be progressive to diss them, or their children, or their grandchildren by ‘feeling sorry for them’ because they haven’t done their ‘research’.

NEWSFLASH! — People who don’t have much money are not necessarily ignorant. Neither are they clueless. Neither are they lazy. Neither are they undeserving of a voice, although you’d never know that if you get much of your news from the mainstream media.

Okay, let me get back to my point. Clinton is at risk of losing the nomination because she isn’t fighting for the right things, and she’s dissing people who are. She told our young people that she feels sorry for them because they don’t do their research and that they believe lies. That’s just silly. We have more young people getting higher education now than we’ve ever had. They know how to do research and they do it. They believe that they’re gonna graduate with mortgage sized student loan debts that will keep them from getting real mortgages on real houses to raise their families in. Hillary’s got tons of housing in whatever state she wants to be from. She doesn’t really seem to care. She got hers, and if they don’t, well, they’re just not doing their research.

She is also at risk of losing the nomination because she asks people who ask her legitimate questions about race and diversity policies, “Why don’t you just go run for something, then?” She doesn’t bother to address their question. She just asks them something that sounds like, “Why don’t you be me?” Then she gets back to the ‘issues.’ Well, guess what? There’s a ton of people doing great work in our communities who teach kids, collect garbage, fix plumbing and roofs, counsel people who are in crisis, care for people who are dying, clean homes and hotel rooms and conference rooms at ritzy hotels where $30,000 a plate fundraisers (more than the aforementioned workers or their spouses make in a year) have just been held. Many of those full time, dedicated workers support the Big Brothers Big Sisters in their communities, or Planned Parenthood, or even less organized but amazingly effective groups that help children and adults be responsible community members. They do it with their time. They are the boots on the ground.

“Why don’t you run for something, then?” It’s an okay question to ask, if you know something about the person you’re asking it to, if you are asking them in an encouraging way, as in, “You are impressive to me. Why don’t you run for something?” That’s not the way she asked it.

These aren’t all the reasons, but if you really want to understand why Clinton may very well not win, it’s a start.