@gjohnsit

the vaccines? You know, those horrible mRNA jabs that were hardly even tested before being used on us humans? Note: https://www.oligotherapeutics.org/facts-about-mrna-vaccines-and-the-deca...

"Isn’t the technology too new to be trusted? If mRNA vaccines really work and can be produced so quickly, then why haven’t any been used before?

Technically, mRNA vaccines are not new. They, along with other RNA therapeutics, have been in development for decades, and many mRNA vaccines were in phase 1, 2, and 3 trials before the COVID-19 vaccines were created. There simply has not been the level of urgency to produce them to combat a virus as we have seen in this pandemic. The arrival of SARS-CoV-2 highlighted the critical need for solutions, and the development of mRNA vaccines along with other oligonucleotide therapies became an urgent priority. (Read more about oligonucleotide therapeutics in the fight against COVID-19 here.)

The potential of mRNA vaccines was restricted initially because mRNA is unstable, delivery is difficult, and they often created an undesirably strong immune response (1, 5). mRNA by itself is easily detected by the immune system, and it needs to avoid detection and be delivered into the cell (4). Each vaccine requires determining what portions of mRNA will create the desired response and what formulations will create an effective immune response without creating too strong an immune reaction (1).

Once these, and a myriad of other problems were solved, pharmaceutical companies were not eager to invest in mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases because there are many other effective vaccine platforms in use.

Moderna is one exception, and they have focused on developing and improving mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases for a decade. They have completed two phase 1 studies for influenza strains that were found to be both safe and effective (6). Another phase 1 trial for a Zika virus vaccine is underway, as is a phase 2 dose-finding trial for a cytomegalovirus vaccine. Undoubtedly, this contributed to their ability to respond so quickly during this pandemic and allowed them to produce one of the first vaccines to receive emergency authorization. So, while it is true that we do not have long term data on these specific vaccines, we do have data on vaccines with similar platforms and delivery methods that show longer-term safety."

I've noticed that peaking numbers have been showing up here and there...Missouri and some of the other southern states that were hit hard. There were those who thought that peaking would occur in mid- August, but it looks like it will be longer than that.

Thanks for writing this.

#1.1.1
Maybe I'm hearing this wrong.
But we're talking humans and viruses, and those dynamics haven't changed in roughly 200,000 years.
That's all I'm saying.

If you look at those COVID graphs from April/May 2020, COVID was a real killer. If you look at the most recent months, the COVID mortality rate has dropped through the floor.
You could assume one of two logical things from that: 1) COVID isn't as dangerous now, or 2) COVID isn't infecting the vulnerable population anymore.
Taking either of those two assumptions will lead you to the conclusion that this pandemic is petering out after 18 months. Which by coincidence, is historically when pandemics usually start petering out.

@gjohnsit
have changed significantly over the centuries. Especially since the advance of medicine in the last century.

The Black Death (also known as the Pestilence, the Great Mortality or the Plague) was a bubonic plague pandemic occurring in Afro-Eurasia from 1346 to 1353.[a] It is the most fatal pandemic recorded in human history, causing the death of 75–200 million people in Eurasia and North Africa, peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351.

How 5 of History's Worst Pandemics Finally Ended

1. Plague of Justinian—No One Left to Die
2. Black Death—The Invention of Quarantine
3. The Great Plague of London—Sealing Up the Sick
4. Smallpox—A European Disease Ravages the New World
5. Cholera—A Victory for Public Health Research

Pandemics That Changed History
As human civilizations rose, these diseases struck them down.

Communicable diseases existed during humankind’s hunter-gatherer days, but the shift to agrarian life 10,000 years ago created communities that made epidemics more possible. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox and others first appeared during this period.

The more civilized humans became, building cities and forging trade routes to connect with other cities, and waging wars with them, the more likely pandemics became. See a timeline below of pandemics that, in ravaging human populations, changed history.
...

BTW, I'd still like to see the global death/case graphs of COVID-19 to compare with the previous ones to better understand the relationship of the progression. Apples to apples so to speak.

#1.1.1
Maybe I'm hearing this wrong.
But we're talking humans and viruses, and those dynamics haven't changed in roughly 200,000 years.
That's all I'm saying.

If you look at those COVID graphs from April/May 2020, COVID was a real killer. If you look at the most recent months, the COVID mortality rate has dropped through the floor.
You could assume one of two logical things from that: 1) COVID isn't as dangerous now, or 2) COVID isn't infecting the vulnerable population anymore.
Taking either of those two assumptions will lead you to the conclusion that this pandemic is petering out after 18 months. Which by coincidence, is historically when pandemics usually start petering out.

@Marie

More Than You Ever Wanted to Know about Viral Mutation
May 11, 2020

Viruses mutate — meaning they change and evolve as they multiply and spread — and one of the big fears about SARS-CoV-2 is that at some point it could mutate into something even more deadly and even more contagious. Thankfully, so far that hasn’t happened. A University College London team analyzing virus genomes from more than 7,500 infected people identified 198 recurrent genetic mutations in the virus, and a lead researcher concluded, “there is nothing to suggest SARS-CoV-2 is mutating faster or slower than expected. So far we cannot say whether SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more or less lethal and contagious.”

While we shouldn’t count on it, there is a chance that mutation will work in our favor, eventually.

John M. Barry’s The Great Influenza is considered one of the most authoritative histories of the 1918 influenza pandemic. In that book, Barry discusses how the continuing mutation of that epidemic’s spectacularly lethal virus ended up saving people:

By nature the influenza virus is dangerous, considerably more dangerous than the common aches and fever lead people to believe, but it does not kill routinely as it did in 1918. The 1918 pandemic reached an extreme of virulence unknown in any other widespread influenza outbreak in history.

But the 1918 virus, like all influenza viruses, like all viruses that form mutant swarms, mutated rapidly. There is a mathematical concept called “reversion to the mean”; this states simply that an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event. This is not a law, only a probability. The 1918 virus stood at an extreme; any mutations were more likely to make it less lethal than more lethal. In general, that is what happened. So just as it seemed that the virus would bring civilization to its knees, would do what the plagues of the Middle Ages had done, would remake the world, the virus mutated toward its mean, toward the behavior of most influenza viruses. As time went on, it became less lethal.

#1.1.1

Another feature of the influenza viruses is that they tended to mutate into less virulent forms with each following wave.

The first wave was mild and the second wave was the killer.

There are so many different ways of interpreting the reported data (much of it not all that reliable or questionable) and so many variables that tend to be ignored that it's probably best not to buy into any claim. The science (other than masks, social distancing, and ventilation) is significantly lagging the pandemic. And we have yet to begin even considering morbidity which is always a risk for viruses and an excellent reason to take all viable measures to thwart a pandemic.

China successfully stomped on it. Vietnam did as well until the Delta variant hit this past spring. And yet, China hasn't struggled with the Delta variant. The claim is that the difference is in the vaccination rates -- very low in VN and approx 60% in China. Difficult to refute that based on the top line data. It also suggests that the Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines are effective. Perhaps more effective than what's being used in the US -- but the US vac rate is only 53% and the virus was endemic before vaccines became available. The vaccines may be the silver bullet, or the virus could run its course and die out, or it could keep evolving and defeat us. Anyone can guess, but nobody really knows which way this will go.