Historic pandemic charts

I know I said that I wouldn't write about this subject anymore, but the quickly approaching end of this pandemic seems to be news to people here..
We are about 18 months into this pandemic.

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Pandemics always end. And they rarely last more than two years.
Now let's compare this to COVID.

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Covid cases currently rising far faster than deaths tells me that the people being infected are not the vulnerable population.
Which I take to mean - this is almost over.

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CB's picture

They are not the same as the world charts for your comparison.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

We are more highly globalized and mobilized now so it will be more difficult to extrapolate. Also the varying virulence of the different historical pandemics needs to be accounted for.

I would like to compare death rates from the global south that have less access to the vaccines than us in the 'developed' world, especially as the various countries have learned how to deal with this pandemic.

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@CB

We are more highly globalized and mobilized now so it will be more difficult to extrapolate.

...these global pandemics can't compare because things are more global now? Wink

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit
the oceans by boat? Or continents by train? We do it in hours now. We also have a highly mobile population that travel to various countries just for holidays. China is one country where foreign travel has increased geometrically from 2003. This had allowed the COVID-19 pandemic to spread globally before air travel was shut down.

The H1N1 influenza virus of 1818 consisted of 4 waves from early 1818 until mid 2020. The H1N1 influenza virus of 2009 ran from mid 2009 until mid 2010.

An interesting feature is that these influenza pandemics killed mainly younger and more fit people due to severe cytokine storms. COVID-19 kills mainly older people with comorbidities.

When it is over we will become a more fitter and younger nation. /s

Another feature of the influenza viruses is that they tended to mutate into less virulent forms with each following wave. Unfortunately there is reason to believe that COVID-19 has been mutating into a more virulent form.

I still would like a study to show the actual efficacy of the brand new and relatively untested gene therapy vaccines. You do realize that they cut short the animal trials in order to push these vaccines out quicker? Not even a year and they were in mass production. WE are the lab rats.

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@CB
Maybe I'm hearing this wrong.
But we're talking humans and viruses, and those dynamics haven't changed in roughly 200,000 years.
That's all I'm saying.

If you look at those COVID graphs from April/May 2020, COVID was a real killer. If you look at the most recent months, the COVID mortality rate has dropped through the floor.
You could assume one of two logical things from that: 1) COVID isn't as dangerous now, or 2) COVID isn't infecting the vulnerable population anymore.
Taking either of those two assumptions will lead you to the conclusion that this pandemic is petering out after 18 months. Which by coincidence, is historically when pandemics usually start petering out.

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@gjohnsit

the vaccines? You know, those horrible mRNA jabs that were hardly even tested before being used on us humans? Note: https://www.oligotherapeutics.org/facts-about-mrna-vaccines-and-the-deca...

"Isn’t the technology too new to be trusted? If mRNA vaccines really work and can be produced so quickly, then why haven’t any been used before?

Technically, mRNA vaccines are not new. They, along with other RNA therapeutics, have been in development for decades, and many mRNA vaccines were in phase 1, 2, and 3 trials before the COVID-19 vaccines were created. There simply has not been the level of urgency to produce them to combat a virus as we have seen in this pandemic. The arrival of SARS-CoV-2 highlighted the critical need for solutions, and the development of mRNA vaccines along with other oligonucleotide therapies became an urgent priority. (Read more about oligonucleotide therapeutics in the fight against COVID-19 here.)

The potential of mRNA vaccines was restricted initially because mRNA is unstable, delivery is difficult, and they often created an undesirably strong immune response (1, 5). mRNA by itself is easily detected by the immune system, and it needs to avoid detection and be delivered into the cell (4). Each vaccine requires determining what portions of mRNA will create the desired response and what formulations will create an effective immune response without creating too strong an immune reaction (1).

Once these, and a myriad of other problems were solved, pharmaceutical companies were not eager to invest in mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases because there are many other effective vaccine platforms in use.

Moderna is one exception, and they have focused on developing and improving mRNA vaccines for infectious diseases for a decade. They have completed two phase 1 studies for influenza strains that were found to be both safe and effective (6). Another phase 1 trial for a Zika virus vaccine is underway, as is a phase 2 dose-finding trial for a cytomegalovirus vaccine. Undoubtedly, this contributed to their ability to respond so quickly during this pandemic and allowed them to produce one of the first vaccines to receive emergency authorization. So, while it is true that we do not have long term data on these specific vaccines, we do have data on vaccines with similar platforms and delivery methods that show longer-term safety."

I've noticed that peaking numbers have been showing up here and there...Missouri and some of the other southern states that were hit hard. There were those who thought that peaking would occur in mid- August, but it looks like it will be longer than that.

Thanks for writing this.

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

@Fishtroller 02

Could "mortality dropped through the floor" also be due to the vaccines?

Good catch. I hadn't thought of that. Which kinda sorta fits into the non-vulnerable population.

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@gjohnsit

unscientific nonsense had faded away, we will see clearly that the mRNA vaccines were what SAVED millions of lives.

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

CB's picture

@Fishtroller 02
the death rate to drop.

If you look at some data about death/case rates vs vaccination rates there is no direct relationship in many cases.

Here's the ratio of vaccines vs death rate for the US. It's current trajectory is not favourable.

Unfortunately that graph doesn't tell us about other factors that may be at play such as masking, social isolating or any prophylaxis used. There has been an inverse rate in the US possibly because people are more active and they felt safer having been vaccinated or efficacy of vaccine has been reduced or virus has mutated or ???.

It is apparent that the vaccines are going to have to be re-administered at least on a yearly basis. This doesn't bode well for it's efficacy, especially as they have SIGNIFICANT side affects, including death.

The greatest problem with these new gene therapy vaccines (as compared to the standard killed virus vaccines) is they have a significant failure rate, both in preventing transmission and protection.

The jury is still out on the overall efficacy of the mRNA and viral vector vaccines.

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@CB
Something is wrong with that map. South Africa is listed as not using Ivermectin.

However, SA approved giving it to Covid patients in January.

And that's from just a 3 minute Google search. How many other flaws will I find in the next 10 minutes?

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit
that used ivermectin for the traditional purposes

COVID-19: The Ivermectin African Enigma

Ivermectin has been used all over in African countries. Nobody has to be a scientist to compare the maps of countries of Africa where Ivermectin was used versus the Corona virus 19 today. It is obvious and not a co-incidence. Credit to the master in Japan, Prof.
...

...
There is another study done of the Ivermectin in Africa, specific regarding Covid 19 virus and the citizens of certain countries that used Ivermectin.

The low frequency of cases and deaths from the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 virus in some countries of Africa has called our attention to the unusual behavior of this disease. Data from 19 countries that participated in the WHO sponsored African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC), from 1995 until 2015, intended to treat over 90 million people annually and protect an at-risk population of 115 million, were compared with thirty-five (Non-APOC), countries that were not included. The statistics show a significant 28% lower mortality (0.72 IC 95% 0,67-0,78) and 8% lower rate of infection (0.92 IC95% 0,91-0,93) due to COVID-19. It was concluded that the incidence in mortality rates and number of cases is significantly lower among the APOC countries compared to non-APOC countries. Additional studies are needed to confirm it.
...

Ivermectin had been previously banned in South Africa. It is now allowed but they made it difficult and not off the shelf.

• Section 21 compassionate use programme
• Being individually compounded at a compounding pharmacy under Section 14.

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@CB

It is now allowed but they made it difficult and not off the shelf.

So you are telling me that South Africa is messing up by not allowing a medicine that you can easily poison yourself with to be off-the-shelf?
And that's your take-away? Not "my source has a flaw" so maybe there might be something wrong with it?

Besides not including South Africa in the IVM countries, there is also selective cropping.
Specifically, (this is from your link) Brazil.

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Because Brazil has one of the worst Covid outbreaks in the world. So it would dramatically change the results.
(sigh) But it doesn't matter because everyone has made up their minds and no one really cares how many flaws I point out. I've already been down this road with a friend of mine. It didn't matter how many times I pointed out that his Covid anti-vax sources were proven wrong, he kept recycling them as if he didn't hear me, or didn't understand me because I was speaking another language.
Which is a damn shame that this has come to C99P.

[edit] What really drives me up the wall is that there ARE real scandals and real crimes going on here, but nobody is bothering to look at them.
For instance, I was just looking over one of your links and I found this:

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Do you really think that the upper 10-20% of the population are disproportionately being impacted by Covid? Of course not!
What is obviously going on here is that the working class and the poor 1) aren't being tested, and 2) aren't being treated.

THIS IS THE SCANDAL! Right here!

But it seems I may be the only one that cares about the real scandal. Everyone else is worried about their feelings if someone laughs at them for doing something dumb.
And I'm getting really frustrated by this bullsh*t.

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit
has been used for decades.

The map YOU are using shows the countries where Onchocerciasis (RIVER BLINDNESS) – Parasite: Onchocerca volvulus is found. The ivermectin program in Central and South America was focused on particular native groups which were successfully concluded from 2003 to 2017. The only current one in South America is for 400 tribes consisting of 30,000 Yanomami people living in the forests of Brazil and Venezuela (see the inset on the map). Ordinary Brazilians (212.5 million) and Venezuelans (28 million) never received this treatment unlike the nations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Ivermectin is a not a cure-all preventative. It is just a prophylaxis that can reduce the worst effects of COVID-19 if taken early. It sure beats staying at home twiddling your thumbs in bed until you can't breath and then calling for an ambulance.

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TheOtherMaven's picture

@CB @CB

poison yourself with ivermectin - you have to seriously overdo it by some outrageous amount.

Tylenol is FAR more dangerous, because it is actually easy - frighteningly so - to misestimate the dosage and damage or destroy your liver. But nobody's going to take Tylenol off the market.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

@TheOtherMaven

Again this morning a headline about IVM poisonings. People even managed poisoning themselves with doctor prescribed IVM.

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

TheOtherMaven's picture

@Fishtroller 02

If someone takes the full dosage intended for a horse, that's about 5-10 times the recommended dosage for a human, and it would be surprising if they *didn't* show some adverse effects.

(ALL medications - and some foods - have potential side effects, even when used correctly, so that really doesn't justify cranking up the Mighty Wurlitzer to FEAR FEAR FEAR. What does "justify" it is Big Pharma's fear of losing its outrageous profits.)

Where we should be is having a variety of effective treatments for COVID, for the inevitable instances when someone catches it with or without vaccination.

Where we are, is hoping and praying the vaccines are effective enough to prevent severe sickness - and with nothing but hope and prayer when (not if) they aren't.

And this is considered acceptable?

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

@TheOtherMaven

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

TheOtherMaven's picture

@Fishtroller 02

Where we should be is having a variety of effective treatments for COVID, for the inevitable instances when someone catches it with or without vaccination.

Where we are, is hoping and praying the vaccines are effective enough to prevent severe sickness - and with nothing but hope and prayer when (not if) they aren't.

And this is considered acceptable?

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

@TheOtherMaven

poison control center report?

Also, I don't pray. I'm an atheist.

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"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

@Fishtroller 02 the right has the memory capacity of a goldfish.
Like WMD's in Iraq, trickle-down economics or bailouts, the right has a history of never admitting they were wrong.
They'll be ranting some other nonsense and idiots who should have learned better will still listen to them. No one will look back at vaccinations and say anything at all.
No one ever does.

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit
to a point where they had approx. 20% vaccination rate.

COVID-19 vaccinations vs. new COVID-19 deaths, Dec 2, 2020 to Aug 31, 2021 - United States

Something has definitely gone side-wards with the vaccination program.

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@CB
"what is the death rate for unvax'd vs. vax'd" because that will tell you more accurately if something is wrong with the vaccine.
However, I don't/won't argue this any further.
The field is yours.

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit
It currently doesn't look too promising for the vaccines. Neither does the European equivalent.

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@gjohnsit
have changed significantly over the centuries. Especially since the advance of medicine in the last century.

The Black Death (also known as the Pestilence, the Great Mortality or the Plague) was a bubonic plague pandemic occurring in Afro-Eurasia from 1346 to 1353.[a] It is the most fatal pandemic recorded in human history, causing the death of 75–200 million people in Eurasia and North Africa, peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351.

How 5 of History's Worst Pandemics Finally Ended

1. Plague of Justinian—No One Left to Die
2. Black Death—The Invention of Quarantine
3. The Great Plague of London—Sealing Up the Sick
4. Smallpox—A European Disease Ravages the New World
5. Cholera—A Victory for Public Health Research

Pandemics That Changed History
As human civilizations rose, these diseases struck them down.

Communicable diseases existed during humankind’s hunter-gatherer days, but the shift to agrarian life 10,000 years ago created communities that made epidemics more possible. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox and others first appeared during this period.

The more civilized humans became, building cities and forging trade routes to connect with other cities, and waging wars with them, the more likely pandemics became. See a timeline below of pandemics that, in ravaging human populations, changed history.
...

BTW, I'd still like to see the global death/case graphs of COVID-19 to compare with the previous ones to better understand the relationship of the progression. Apples to apples so to speak.

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@CB
The Black Death was a bacteria. Not a virus.

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit
Why don't you use the global graph showing cases/deaths instead of just the US for a direct comparison to view the global trajectory? After all this IS a pandemic.

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@CB
You can't compare bacteria to virus because their transmission vectors are entirely different. For example, virus can travel/infect by air. Bacteria not so much. That's a big deal.
Honestly, I'm not being difficult here.

As for using U.S. rather than global, simply I don't think anyone in America really cares about the global situation. Americans are a**holes that way.

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CB's picture

@gjohnsit
I personally do not think that we're going to get out this mess using vaccines only, And I think it was a grave mistake by Fauci and his ilk banking the health of the entire country on this one horse race.

Unfortunately, prophylactics are not money makers and big pharma has mutated into a greedy and immoral monster.

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@gjohnsit

Airborne bacteria include:

tuberculosis
pneumonia
whooping cough
strep
scarlet fever
bronchitis
meningitis
diptheria
anthrax
pneumonic plague
along with a variety of opportunistic infections

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@Reverend Jane Ignatowski
My bad.
I always thought that tuberculosis and pneumonia were viral. Live and learn. Thanks for teaching me something.

That being said, the Black Death was not airborne, which was my original point.

Also, Bronchitis is viral.

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@gjohnsit

From what I've read bronchitis is typically viral, but can also be bacterial. I think this is true of one or more of the others on my quick list too but idk for sure, my interest in the area is casual, no professional experience.

Somewhat tangentially related to the discussion, you (and others here) might appreciate the dark humor in this weird bit of history, if you've not already read about the New England vampire panic of the 1800s, enjoy!

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@Reverend Jane Ignatowski
With their stunning good looks, custom tailored clothes, and teenage angst.
Haven't we already suffered enough for the vampires?

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@CB

Another feature of the influenza viruses is that they tended to mutate into less virulent forms with each following wave.

The first wave was mild and the second wave was the killer.

There are so many different ways of interpreting the reported data (much of it not all that reliable or questionable) and so many variables that tend to be ignored that it's probably best not to buy into any claim. The science (other than masks, social distancing, and ventilation) is significantly lagging the pandemic. And we have yet to begin even considering morbidity which is always a risk for viruses and an excellent reason to take all viable measures to thwart a pandemic.

China successfully stomped on it. Vietnam did as well until the Delta variant hit this past spring. And yet, China hasn't struggled with the Delta variant. The claim is that the difference is in the vaccination rates -- very low in VN and approx 60% in China. Difficult to refute that based on the top line data. It also suggests that the Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines are effective. Perhaps more effective than what's being used in the US -- but the US vac rate is only 53% and the virus was endemic before vaccines became available. The vaccines may be the silver bullet, or the virus could run its course and die out, or it could keep evolving and defeat us. Anyone can guess, but nobody really knows which way this will go.

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CB's picture

@Marie

More Than You Ever Wanted to Know about Viral Mutation
May 11, 2020

Viruses mutate — meaning they change and evolve as they multiply and spread — and one of the big fears about SARS-CoV-2 is that at some point it could mutate into something even more deadly and even more contagious. Thankfully, so far that hasn’t happened. A University College London team analyzing virus genomes from more than 7,500 infected people identified 198 recurrent genetic mutations in the virus, and a lead researcher concluded, “there is nothing to suggest SARS-CoV-2 is mutating faster or slower than expected. So far we cannot say whether SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more or less lethal and contagious.”

While we shouldn’t count on it, there is a chance that mutation will work in our favor, eventually.

John M. Barry’s The Great Influenza is considered one of the most authoritative histories of the 1918 influenza pandemic. In that book, Barry discusses how the continuing mutation of that epidemic’s spectacularly lethal virus ended up saving people:

By nature the influenza virus is dangerous, considerably more dangerous than the common aches and fever lead people to believe, but it does not kill routinely as it did in 1918. The 1918 pandemic reached an extreme of virulence unknown in any other widespread influenza outbreak in history.

But the 1918 virus, like all influenza viruses, like all viruses that form mutant swarms, mutated rapidly. There is a mathematical concept called “reversion to the mean”; this states simply that an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event. This is not a law, only a probability. The 1918 virus stood at an extreme; any mutations were more likely to make it less lethal than more lethal. In general, that is what happened. So just as it seemed that the virus would bring civilization to its knees, would do what the plagues of the Middle Ages had done, would remake the world, the virus mutated toward its mean, toward the behavior of most influenza viruses. As time went on, it became less lethal.

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CB's picture

@Marie @Marie
between the vaccines we are getting to the Chinese vaccine.

The vaccines authorized in the US are mRNA (RNA) and viral-vector (DNA) which have engineered genes that are coded to make the 'spike' proteins that stick out of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The main difference in the two (other then how the vaccine is first taken up by your cells) is that the DNA viral-vector uses the nucleus of the cell to first strip the DNA into RNA and send it into the cytoplasm. Once in the cytoplasm both of these RNA genes function the same. These RNA genes are then run through thru the ribosomes (contained within the cytoplasm) and are decoded to synthesize the spike proteins. These proteins are then ejected by the cell and presented to your anti-bodies that then go to work to protect you.

The Chinese Sinovac is a traditional vaccine that uses inactivated chopped up parts of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the injection. This effectively presents dozens more proteins that your anti-bodies can recognize and fight against which helps make it less susceptible to future mutation of the virus.

BTW, this problem was encountered when they tried to make an mRNA vaccine against the influenza virus. That virus mutates much too often unlike SARS-CoV-2. They basically were/are gambling with the new vaccines by playing the odds. Frankly, I think they are losing.

Note: China has given out over 2 billion vaccinations now. The are 1.4 billion people so that's a fantastic rate. Another 800 million and they will have given their populace the required 2 doses and it should be effective for a significant period against possible mutations.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhRb5hnTseU
I would say something like "the pandemic will continue until Bill Gates finds a way to patent ivormectin." but that is getting too close to CT land. Much more likely is to say that the vaccines were designed to reduce the severity of the disease, not the transmissability, so it looks like the virus is declining. Note also that the NHS admitted to a methodological error where patients that were admitted to hospital THEN contracted covid were counted as being hospitalized FOR covid, more than doubling their numbers. And in America facts are dependent on the political loyalties of the reporter.

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On to Biden since 1973

@doh1304 To quote:

Much more likely is to say that the vaccines were designed to reduce the severity of the disease, not the transmissability, so it looks like the virus is declining.

The lead guy on This Week in Virology podcast makes this point. The vaccines are meant to keep you from severe illness and death. He says the distinction is between infection and disease prevention. He says that the reporting does not put this into context.

Lots of data to look at, but here is my perspective from a layman's experience.

1. The governor of my state said that once the state reaches a 70% vaccination rate, mask mandates would be removed from the vaccinated in most instances.
2. State reaches 70% vaccination percentage.
3. I go out masked (vaccinated but have underlying health conditions) and just playing it ultra safe.
4. As I go about shopping etc, almost nobody has on a mask except me and people like cashiers.
5. If somebody asked me given my day-to-day going about, and if people were obeying governor that unvaccinated people must wear a mask, what percentage of the people around you have been vaccinated?
6. My answer to the question above would be "oh it looks like everybody around me has been vaccinated." 100% vaccination rate.
7. My layman's conclusion is that once the governor rescinded mask mandate, everybody in the state on the same day, went out maskless in the middle of a pandemic. Even the vaccinated along with the unvaccianted.
8. I am not sure the delta variant is more transmissible as it found a huge group of people (unvaccinated) to infect as a people removed a basic protection. Plus even the vaccinated probably found themselves in constant contact with the virus.
9. What the hell. Record infections.

BTW, as I walked around stores, etc, people would be giving me dirty looking for masking.

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@MrWebster
Teacher's left the room! The parents are on vacation! It's PARTY TIME!!!
Junior's big enough now, we don't have to futz with that damn car seat any more. (btw, Junior isn't "big enough")
The governor says we don't have to wear those damn masks any more! Cake and ice cream for supper every night!

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On to Biden since 1973