IPCC Report: stumblings on the way to reality

Beat reporters are now panicked because they read the IPCC report released yesterday. Never mind that the IPCC reports are distillations of previously-conducted research and that they could have bothered to read that research. The IPCC has spoken!

IPCC report’s verdict on climate crimes of humanity: guilty as hell

This is a Guardian reporter's (Damian Carrington's) take on the report. Climate change is the crime of humanity. From the tenor of this piece we might assume that all humanity is equally responsible for the climate crisis, from the oil corporation CEOs to the rag-pickers of the slums of Manila and Mumbai, all bad. Okay, feel ashamed now, good liberals. And don't forget to recommend some action!

“If we do not halt our emissions soon, our future climate could well become some kind of hell on Earth,” says Prof Tim Palmer at the University of Oxford.

It is resolved, then, that all emissions be halted at once. (Why do they talk that way?) Shut down the society as a whole. Everyone starve to death now, unless you live on a farm and have solar-powered cookery. We are not going to truck food into your metropolitan area: emissions y'know. Moreover, all hospital ICUs must cease at once: the doctors are guilty of emissions and must go home. The alternative is hell on Earth, remember.

Of course, nobody thinks this way. Damian Carrington's cerebral repertoire apparently extends to quoting people and stamping his feet and not too much further. There must in reality be a transition plan. Kate Aronoff, who covers climate for the New Republic, knows this. Here is her article: Playing Nice With the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Climate Denial. Aronoff's virtue is that she puts thought into her pieces. Thought is good. Or at least that's what we should be telling our public school students.

Aronoff's thesis:

Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are at their highest point in two million years. We can no longer avoid some of the catastrophic warming coming our way. Avoiding the rest will entail “immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions,” per IPCC Vice Chair Ko Barrett. Most of those reductions need to come from polluting sectors the Biden administration continues to treat with kid gloves.

Of course, the Biden administration IS those polluting sectors. But whaddaya gonna do, vote for Republicans? More specifically:

It’s not that politicians in powerful countries have done nothing in the past two decades. The problem, rather, is that where they’ve done anything at all, it has tended to be the wrong thing, emphasizing subtle market tweaks and shiny new technologies instead of the core work of decarbonization: getting off fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

Life in a cult is hard. It gets worse when getting down to specifics. Aronoff continues:

So what is the White House doing to make good on its promise of sparking an E.V. revolution? Last week, the White House announced that it had reached a nonbinding deal with the country’s biggest automakers that half their new vehicles would be electric, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen-electric by 2030.

That target in fact falls short of what car companies themselves previously pledged. And the funding for the goal is pretty meager, too.

Joe is going to school those automakers. Watch and learn, corporate titans. THIS is how you do nothing while looking good. At any rate, Aronoff suggests a solution:

Decarbonization is fundamentally a planning problem. The U.S. (among other rich countries) has grown allergic to planning, at least in the areas that might help reduce emissions. Even in the places where it’s most bullish, like E.V.s, the best the administration can imagine is tweaks around the edges.

Sure, planning would be nice. But if, as Aronoff says, the US has grown allergic to planning, then there has to be a prior stage in which basic prerequisites are met, basically a revolution. I'd love to start one here -- my area is surrounded by climate-change-amplified fires (1) (2) (3), so my Air Quality Index is something like 200 or 250. Don't look to the (D) cult to complete that revolution. Absent such a revolution, btw, THIS is what you're going to get.

BONUS COVERAGE: A second sweep reveals two pieces. "The Conversation" released a report ahead of the release of the IPCC report, explaining to newbies what the conversation is about. And Justin Worland of TIME Magazine had a piece called "The Last Big Climate Report Changed the Conversation. Will This One Do the Same?" dumped into my mailbox. This piece doesn't show up on a Google search, so I have to assume it's subscribers-only, though the subscription service is free. At any rate, Worland wanted to comment at length about what other people would think about the IPCC report, and about would it change their thinking. Would the report change anyone's minds about the urgency of doing something about climate change? Worland's conclusion:

Will that change any minds? It’s too soon to say, of course. But I think there are reasons to be just a little bit hopeful. Opposition to climate change at the international level has always been about national interest, with countries only wanting to help insofar as it would pay dividends at home. But the dividends that come from ignoring the problem are drying up fast. Meanwhile, the latest IPCC report is an urgent, stark reminder that no one escapes what comes next.

It seems to me, though, that the dividends accruing to the politicians will remain unchanged. If the politicians do nothing of substance, they will get money from the capitalists. If they rock the boat, the capitalists will cut off the money.

SECOND BONUS COVERAGE:

A webpage called "Fourth International" (Trotskyists?) suggests:

The catastrophe can only be stopped in a manner worthy of our humanity by a double movement consisting of reducing global production and radically reorienting it to serve real human needs, those of the majority, democratically determined. This double movement necessarily involves the suppression of useless or harmful production and the expropriation of capitalist monopolies - first and foremost in energy, finance and agribusiness. It also requires a drastic reduction in the consumption extravagances of the rich. In other words, the alternative is dramatically simple: either humanity will liquidate capitalism, or capitalism will liquidate millions of innocent people to continue its barbaric course on a maimed, and perhaps unliveable, planet.

I like the mention of "worthy of our humanity" in this paragraph. Here one thinks of Cordelia Fine's book "A Mind Of Its Own" -- are we really capable of stopping the tendency to fool ourselves long enough to see this?

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QMS's picture

China has developed 5 year plans for many decades now.
And met those goals for the improvement of masses.
It may not completely improve the quality of the biosphere
but it is taking the raging bull by the horns. Improving the lives
of the people.

Begs the question .. why can't the US develop a 5 year
plan for the betterment of the people and the environment?

Is it the 4 year election cycle or capitalism got in the way?

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zed2's picture

They want to force people to buy electric cars just as the price of electricity and naturaol gas is supposed to double or triple? (once the new LNG terminals go online)

This is the cost of ending the export controls on natural gas and letting energy costs rise to average world levels?

They want to export natural gas, because they get more for it elsewhere. But Americans dont want to pay the prices its worth, they would rather go without? No, we just cant afford it is it costs 100% to 400% more. (as predicted)
[Video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQZq2hhbGZA]

We could save a lot of energy by doing what Europeans do build public transport. Except we swore not to, we swore to only privatize public services, not build more of them.
But there is another way. In many cities few people have cars. Those are the cities with the kick ass public transportation that other cities let GENERAL MOTORS destroy. Dooming us to war after war over cheap oil.

Sound relevant?

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Cassiodorus's picture

@zed2 There are three nearby fires. As a result, my Air Quality Index is about 200 right now. I should add: one of these fires has burned more than 400,000 acres and destroyed a town of 800 people. And temperatures, having reached 115 degrees in late June, will reach 107 degrees this week. All of this is climate-change-related, and completely anomalous to any historical weather pattern of where I live.

Eventually the whole of the West is going to die in drought and in fire. At some point there will be no water available to fight endemic urban fires. The East Coast will have to deal with storms which will eventually plunge most of Florida underwater.

At some point there will be famines because climate change will induce multiple crop failures.

Okay, so where were we? Electric cars, right. What about them?

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

zed2's picture

Are you talking about an industrial policy?

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Cassiodorus's picture

@zed2 nmi

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

QMS's picture

@Cassiodorus

Weird how money trumps survival.
Who gains and what is lost.
Simple questions.
Sorry about the loss of breathable air.

Can't be fixed without redirecting the war funds.
In this, the greatest show on earth.

People suffering and dying doesn't even make the news anymore.

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@QMS That will make a nice dent in the pollution and fossil fuel extraction and burning forest scenario.

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NYCVG

easy enough to do in a generation. no new tech required.

seems to me this should be part of the solution.

but doesn't seem to be part of the discussion.

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The Liberal Moonbat's picture

“Where all are guilty, no one is; confessions of collective guilt are the best possible safeguard against the discovery of culprits, and the very magnitude of the crime the best excuse for doing nothing.”
- Hannah Arendt

Mr. Carrington, you're no Hans Rolfe, and even HE only gave that argument as a 'Hail-Mary pass' in obligatory defense of a case he knew deserved to lose (and did)!

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In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.

Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!

Lookout's picture

1. We're past multiple interconnected tipping points. Regardless of what we do climate chaos is inevitable.

2. Fossil fuels were/are the primary cause and all new extraction and pipelines should be halted.

3. Massive reforestation and the transition from corporate farms to local regenerative production could help slow the disaster.

4. Capitalist consumption needs to stop and become need based rather than desire based.

5. Global cooperation is required and all militarism must shift to regional mitigation ventures.

etc.

...but we all know that the goal of discussing climate is to drive panic and more clicks, not to really address the dilemma. In fact the UN report doesn't offer a single example of a solution...just be worried, very worried, when we've known this was coming for at least 50 years. IMO the scientists are sincere, but in reality just blowing smoke up our ass (literally and figuratively).

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Cassiodorus's picture

@Lookout is to avoid offending the rich and powerful people who don't want a solution.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

@Cassiodorus from another planet? Cuz unless their children won't be growing up here....

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Cassiodorus's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain They're cultists.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

how in past fires what happened to all the people who were wiped out? Were they helped by any agencies? Government or otherwise? In the past there would be organizations that would step in to pick up the slack where government aid left off, hold fundraisers, buttonhole zillionaires.

Today, that doesn't seem true. Not even GoFundMe's. I am asking because there are a lot of people, like me, that still think the world runs the "old way". That there are means and entities in place to come to peoples aid. I'm always shocked when something like Katrina happens and watch as our government treats the victims as grifters and enemies, a burden. Over and over, the way things used to work don't anymore.

It seems if you're old enough, pretty much everything you thought as a given is no longer valid, by design.

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lotlizard's picture

@Snode  

Everything you know is wrong
Up is down, black is white, and short is long
And everything you thought was just so important, doesn’t matter
Everything you know is wrong
Just forget the words and sing along
All you need to understand is
Everything you know is wrong

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Cassiodorus's picture

@Snode My understanding of the fire that wiped out my neighborhood (the "Almeda Fire," though likely there were multiple fires on September 8th of last year in Talent and in Phoenix, Oregon that are being called "one" fire) is this: a number of people received assistance from FEMA, though that was itself sketchy as to whether or not FEMA would pay out. The people who are rebuilding around now (I say "around now" because the AQI around where I live jumped to about 300 and who wants to be outside in that?) are doing it on insurance money.

After the fires of last year was a GoFundMe for a Buddhist soul who staffed the Hermeticus Bookstore in Talent, Oregon and who lived in clandestine fashion in the back of the bookstore before it burned to the ground on September 8th. (The landlord decreed that he wasn't allowed to do that. Why I don't know.) After the GoFundMe netted $10,000 he took it down. I guess that was all the money he needed. I think he's living with a friend up in the hills, or maybe he's living in his van.

There were an awful lot of people who were living in trailers and in manufactured homes in Talent and in Phoenix who were evacuated and many of whom will not come back. I presume that they had no renter's insurance and have found lodgings elsewhere. At any rate, it's been 11 months since the fires, and the reconstruction of whatever will be built on the bulldozed grounds of those trailer parks has barely begun.

I really don't know what's going on in places like Paradise, California. Here was a piece in the Sacramento Bee: "Paradise’s population surges, fueled by new housing construction in wake of Camp Fire." The 2010 census counted more than 26,000 people in Paradise. Now, claims the article, said population went from a low figure of 4,600 to a whopping total of 6,000. So we might assume that there are 20,000 people who have pretty much dropped the ball on Paradise. Maybe they're not collecting insurance or FEMA money, or maybe they've just decided that the fire risk of living in Paradise California isn't worth it. After all, the Dixie Fire, currently raging over more than 400,000 acres in the Sierras, is not far from Paradise.

There are also, of course, charitable agencies helping the fire victims around here. I don't know much about them. My neighborhood was wiped out but my house is standing, so I don't receive charity (though I did borrow a friend's Internet until my service was plugged back in after I evacuated and moved back into my house). There are also a couple of people around here who have decided to operate what amounts to a Really Really Free Market for those who need food.

That's what I know.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

@Cassiodorus All I see here back east on national news is video of huge fires, firefighters/tankers and dried up resevoirs. Some human interest of people escaping, then returning to their burned homes. Also mention of *cough* global warming. For all of 2 minutes. Then it just drops off the radar.

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