Sweden Now Number 33

Submitted by fire with fire on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 10:51am

On this board, I have read it asserted that Sweden did lock down and that is the only reason why their numbers improved. This false assertion is apparently based on a law that was passed early in 2021 that would allow the government to impose the same orders imposed in most of the rest of the world, but this law was not enforced beyond a few small measures.

I also read here that deaths mean nothing -- that experts only care about infections. Ahem. At any rate, the Swedish death rate is now in 33rd place on the world chart -- about 25% lower than the USA and well below half the level in the new front runner in the ongoing tally of fatality, Hungary.

I am sure that Team Lockdown is ready to prove that Hungary just isn't locking down hard enough. Whatever.

I finally found a main stream source, The New Yorker Magazine that shows the appropriate humility about cause and effect that Team Lockdown has been mobilized to denigrate and ridicule in support of the science based authoritarianism that yields but one answer to every question about the pandemic -- lock down good, no lockdown bad!

.
.

Sweden’s Pandemic Experiment
When the coronavirus arrived, the country decided not to implement lockdowns or recommend masks. How has it fared?
By Mallory Pickett

April 6, 2021

Sweden’s death toll was not as high as some predicted. It will not be easy to tease out the precise reasons for this outcome. In a recent piece for this magazine, Siddhartha Mukherjee noted that, while some countries were ravaged by the pandemic, others had far lower death rates than expected. The reasons for this, he noted, remain an “epidemiological mystery.” It may be, for example, that the Swedish policies appeared more different than they actually were. Small liberties were allowed—restaurants, bars, parties—which made Sweden seem wildly permissive. Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist at Roskilde University, in Denmark, told me that, in the late spring and early summer, Danes would sometimes take a short trip to Sweden to enjoy a reprieve from lockdown. “If you just went to Malmö, which is right across from Copenhagen here, you would see two completely different societies when we were in lockdown,” she said. But most high schools and universities in Sweden went online. Staying at home was optional rather than mandatory, but mobility data from cell phones show that Swedes did significantly reduce their movement. Simonsen believes that two of Sweden’s simplest restrictions—limiting the sizes of gatherings and regulating visits to nursing homes—did much of the work to limit spread. “Most countries do a bunch of things at the same time, and you really can’t find the effect of the individual ones,” she said. She also points out that Sweden’s restrictions, while relatively relaxed, also remained fairly steady. “They didn’t fluctuate like we did in other countries,” Simonsen said. “We’ve been on a yo-yo diet with covid over here. The numbers went down, we opened up, and then they went up.”

There may also be factors that we’re not yet aware of. “We’ve just got to be humble about what we know and what we don’t know. And we still don’t know a lot,” Howard Forman, a professor of public-health and management at Yale, told me. Protections that seemed important may turn out, after long-term study, to have been less effective than we thought. “If you, one day, come to me and say that masks only reduce spread by fifteen per cent or even ten per cent, I’d be like, O.K., well, that’s within range. It’s not a total shock. And, by the way, I would still say it was worth wearing the masks.” Heuveline added, of the virus’s first wave, “I remember we were given all these reasons why Germany kind of dodged the bullet: they had great hospitals, they had an excess of I.C.U. hospitals, they had redundancies in their hospital system.” But, now, Germany is doing no better than its neighbors, and it’s not clear why. Almost exactly a year from the pandemic’s start, Tegnell said that he believes people should still hold off on judging his policies. “The pandemic is not over,” he said. “Any kind of final review on what’s been good and what’s been bad still awaits us.”

Epidemiological mystery? Impossible, says Team Lockdown. Science, speaking in one voice, has dictated that truth that the only way to keep this virus from infecting more people is to make some percentage of the population stay home. Any questioning of this Absolute Truth is Trumpish Idiocy adhered to only by Freedumb loving Covidiots.

It is the smug certitude of Team Lockdown that gives them away.

As I have periodically been posting the Swedish numbers as they continue to show dramatic improvement, I get plenty of snide crapola -- invariably asserting that Science has ruled what I have to say out of bounds.

I have chuckled at this every go around as I do not make any assertions at all. I just poke the Team Lockdown Geniuses in the ribs to get them to show their true colors -- soldiers in a war against doubt.

My intellectual opponents, no matter what the topic.

Tags:

Sweden

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Comments

Submitted by JtC on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 11:30am

Hmmmmm...

this post is tap dancing on the outskirts of DickHead Town.

You do realize that our DBAA (Don't Be An Ass) rule includes not only insults targeting other board members personally, but also members in general, right?

This piece would have been more effective without the finger pointing.

Submitted by Blue Republic on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 10:28am

JtC - you may be right

@JtC

about the effectiveness, but as to

You do realize that our DBAA (Don't Be An Ass) rule includes not only insults targeting other board members personally, but also members in general, right?

I don't regard FwF's posting to be at all insulting, personally - anyone else?

I think the comment below, to one of FwF's previous essays both expresses what he has been trying to do (which seems legitimate) and, unfortunately, captures something of the attitude of his detractors (some of whom have been scathing to the point of what I would regard as insulting, yet have never AFAIK been called out for iit).

"My topic is not about the virus itself -- it is about the politically contaminated discussion of how the human race reacts to it. Whereas I have no earthly idea of the right answers, it is pretty easy to spot the bullshit." (quoting FwF)

It should be easier to recognize when one has taken the wrong path through the woods, but it is not so easy to find the correct one. Finding the correct path rapidly is just a matter of happenstance if it has only occurred once. Politicians and Oligarchs however know how viruses think. The chain of logic is a corrupt syllogism:

I am rich
Only the smart are rich
Therefore I am rich

Corollary:

Your are poor
The poor are ignorant and dumb
Therefore you are dumb and I do need to think for you--in your best interest of course.

- from the keyboard of the late great Alligator Ed (02/01/2021)

(Actually, I'm thinking that first "therefore" should be "Therefore I am smart", no? Anyhow...)

Submitted by Pluto's Republic on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 5:07pm

The author wants to discuss

The author wants to discuss the specific issue of lockdowns and their impact on national economies. He wants evidence-based conclusions to be drawn from Real World comparisons and outcomes. And there is no better place to start than with China, where we have the most data about lockdowns, and where international retrospective investigations into the Pandemic are underway right now.

The World Health Organization investigation, which kicked off earlier this year in Wuhan, China is an example of one of these international inquiries. After gathering evidence in Wuhan, the WHO effort now continues in other parts of the world as the team follows the evidence it finds. One team member, Dominic Dwyer, has written a recent follow up summary on the Wuhan, China phase of the investigation into Covid-19's origins. Excerpts from his article appear below. Dominic Dwyer is Director of Public Health Pathology and Professor of Medicine for Immunology and Infectious Diseases at the The University of Sydney's School of Medicine.

Now, factual information and discoveries uncovered by these international investigations into the origins of Covid-19 are unlikely to be featured in the United States media. Omitted data and deliberate misdirection by the US State Department has created intellectual chaos in the minds of Americans. This essay presents an opportunity to post a little context in the comments, and drop previously withheld information.

I was on WHO’s Covid mission to China.
Here’s what we found

.

As part of the mission, we met the man who, on December 8, 2019, was the first confirmed COVID-19 case; he’s since recovered. We met the husband of a doctor who died of COVID-19 and left behind a young child. We met the doctors who worked in the Wuhan hospitals treating those early COVID-19 cases, and learned what happened to them and their colleagues. We witnessed the impact of COVID-19 on many individuals and communities, affected so early in the pandemic, when we didn’t know much about the virus, how it spreads, how to treat COVID-19, or its impacts.

We talked to our Chinese counterparts — scientists, epidemiologists, doctors — over the four weeks the WHO mission was in China. We were in meetings with them for up to 15 hours a day, so we became colleagues, even friends. This allowed us to build respect and trust in a way you couldn’t necessarily do via Zoom or email.

This is what we learned about the origins of SARS-CoV-2.

It was in Wuhan, in central China, that the virus, now called SARS-CoV-2, emerged in December 2019, unleashing the greatest infectious disease outbreak since the 1918-19 influenza pandemic.

Our investigations concluded the virus was most likely of animal origin. It probably crossed over to humans from bats, via an as-yet-unknown intermediary animal, at an unknown location. Such “zoonotic” diseases have triggered pandemics before. But we are still working to confirm the exact chain of events that led to the current pandemic. Sampling of bats in Hubei province and wildlife across China has revealed no SARS-CoV-2 to date.

We visited the now-closed Wuhan wet market which, in the early days of the pandemic, was blamed as the source of the virus. Some stalls at the market sold “domesticated” wildlife products. These are animals raised for food, such as bamboo rats, civets and ferret badgers. There is also evidence some domesticated wildlife may be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. However, none of the animal products sampled after the market’s closure tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

We also know that not all of those first 174 early COVID-19 cases visited the market, including the man who was diagnosed in December 2019 with the earliest onset date.

However, when we visited the closed market, it’s easy to see how an infection might have spread there. When it was open, there would have been around 10,000 people visiting a day, in close proximity, with poor ventilation and drainage.

There’s also genetic evidence generated during the mission for a transmission cluster there. Viral sequences from several of the market cases were identical, suggesting a transmission cluster. However, there was some diversity in other viral sequences, implying other unknown or unsampled chains of transmission.

A summary of modelling studies of the time to the most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 sequences estimated the start of the pandemic between mid-November and early December. There are also publications suggesting SARS-CoV-2 circulation in various countries earlier than the first case in Wuhan, although these require confirmation.

The market in Wuhan, in the end, was more of an amplifying event rather than necessarily a true ground zero. So we need to look elsewhere for the viral origins.

::

The most politically sensitive option we looked at was the virus escaping from a laboratory. We concluded this was extremely unlikely.

We visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is an impressive research facility, and looks to be run well, with due regard to staff health.

We spoke to the scientists there. We heard that scientists’ blood samples, which are routinely taken and stored, were tested for signs they had been infected. No evidence of antibodies to the coronavirus was found. We looked at their biosecurity audits. No evidence.

We looked at the closest virus to SARS-CoV-2 they were working on — the virus RaTG13 — which had been detected in caves in southern China where some miners had died seven years previously.

But all the scientists had was a genetic sequence for this virus. They hadn’t managed to grow it in culture. While viruses certainly do escape from laboratories, this is rare. So, we concluded it was extremely unlikely this had happened in Wuhan.

The team of investigators

The mission was a joint exercise between the WHO and the Chinese health commission. In all, there were 17 Chinese and ten international experts, plus seven other experts and support staff from various agencies. We looked at the clinical epidemiology (how COVID-19 spread among people), the molecular epidemiology (the genetic makeup of the virus and its spread), and the role of animals and the environment.

The clinical epidemiology group alone looked at China’s records of 76,000 episodes from more than 200 institutions of anything that could have resembled COVID-19 — such as influenza-like illnesses, pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses. They found no clear evidence of substantial circulation of COVID-19 in Wuhan during the latter part of 2019 before the first case.

Where to now?

Our mission to China was only phase one. We are due to publish our official report in the coming weeks. Investigators will also look further afield for data, to investigate evidence the virus was circulating in Europe, for instance, earlier in 2019. Investigators will continue to test wildlife and other animals in the region for signs of the virus. And we’ll continue to learn from our experiences to improve how we investigate the next pandemic.

Irrespective of the origins of the virus, individual people with the disease are at the beginning of their odyssey. The long-term physical and psychological effects — the tragedy and anxiety — will be felt in Wuhan, and elsewhere, for decades to come.

China had stringent lockdowns at the beginning of the pandemic. However, within a few months, China gained control over the spread of Covid-19. Lockdowns have been relatively rare since then. In the meantime, China lists every single infection, every single day, to keep its 1.4 billion People fully informed. You can follow along at China Briefing. This is the past four days, for example:

May 21, 2021 – China reported 24 new confirmed cases, all of which were imported (11 cases in Fujian, 9 cases in Shanghai, 1 case in Henan, 1 case in Hunan, 1 case in Guangdong, and 1 case in Sichuan); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 25 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 23 imported cases and 2 local cases (1 case in Liaoning and 1 case in Anhui); 364 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (344 cases imported from abroad).

May 20, 2021 – China reported 12 new confirmed cases, including 11 imported cases (5 cases in Zhejiang, 2 cases in Shanghai, 1 case in Tianjin, 1 case in Sichuan, and 1 case in Shaanxi) and 1 local case (in Liaoning); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 16 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 15 imported cases and 1 local case in Anhui; 350 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (331 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 449.511 million (as of May 19, 2021).

May 19, 2021 – China reported 14 new confirmed cases, all of which were imported (9 cases in Shanghai, 2 cases in Shaanxi, 1 case in Jiangsu, 1 case in Hubei, and 1 case in Guangdong); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 13 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 12 imported cases and 1 local case in Anhui; 345 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (327 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 435.689 million (as of May 18, 2021).

May 18, 2021 – China reported 22 new confirmed cases, including 18 imported cases (6 cases in Shaanxi, 4 cases in Shanghai, 2 cases in Sichuan, 1 case in Heilongjiang, 1 case in Zhejiang, 1 case in Fujian, 1 case in Shandong, 1 case in Hunan, and 1 case in Guangdong) and 4 local cases (all in Liaoning); no new deaths; 1 new suspected case (imported from abroad in Shanghai). There were 20 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 18 imported cases and 2 local cases in Anhui; 349 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (332 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 421.991 million (as of May 17, 2021).

The lockdowns in parts of China were severe, but that time was used to gain firm control over the disease As a result, China's economy made a record-breaking recovery because the the lockdowns.

China: Economy grows at record pace in COVID rebound

China's 2021 first-quarter growth is the fastest since quarterly records began

China's GDP expanded by 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period last year, official data showed on Friday.

The increase is the biggest since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992.

As the virus has hit global markets, the world's second-largest economy seems to be recovering from the coronavirus slump, accelerated by industrial activity and better-than-expected exports.

While the disease first emerged in central China, the country was also the quickest to get a grip on the pandemic after authorities imposed strict control measures.

Perhaps lockdowns only work for mature civilizations based on cooperation and consensus. I find it interesting that China managed to eradicate poverty in China at the same time that they seized control over the pandemic.

Clearly, lockdowns will not work in every culture.

Submitted by The Voice In th... on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 5:13pm

Clearly lockdowns work in authoritarian dictatorships

@Pluto's Republic

The author wants to discuss the specific issue of lockdowns and their impact on national economies. He wants evidence-based conclusions to be drawn from Real World comparisons and outcomes. And there is no better place to start than with China, where we have the most data about lockdowns, and where international retrospective investigations into the Pandemic are underway right now.

The World Health Organization investigation, which kicked off earlier this year in Wuhan, China is an example of one of these international inquiries. After gathering evidence in Wuhan, the WHO effort now continues in other parts of the world as the team follows the evidence it finds. One team member, Dominic Dwyer, has written a recent follow up summary on the Wuhan, China phase of the investigation into Covid-19's origins. Excerpts from his article appear below. Dominic Dwyer is Director of Public Health Pathology and Professor of Medicine for Immunology and Infectious Diseases at the The University of Sydney's School of Medicine.

Now, factual information and discoveries uncovered by these international investigations into the origins of Covid-19 are unlikely to be featured in the United States media. Omitted data and deliberate misdirection by the US State Department has created intellectual chaos in the minds of Americans. This essay presents an opportunity to post a little context in the comments, and drop previously withheld information.

I was on WHO’s Covid mission to China.
Here’s what we found

.

As part of the mission, we met the man who, on December 8, 2019, was the first confirmed COVID-19 case; he’s since recovered. We met the husband of a doctor who died of COVID-19 and left behind a young child. We met the doctors who worked in the Wuhan hospitals treating those early COVID-19 cases, and learned what happened to them and their colleagues. We witnessed the impact of COVID-19 on many individuals and communities, affected so early in the pandemic, when we didn’t know much about the virus, how it spreads, how to treat COVID-19, or its impacts.

We talked to our Chinese counterparts — scientists, epidemiologists, doctors — over the four weeks the WHO mission was in China. We were in meetings with them for up to 15 hours a day, so we became colleagues, even friends. This allowed us to build respect and trust in a way you couldn’t necessarily do via Zoom or email.

This is what we learned about the origins of SARS-CoV-2.

It was in Wuhan, in central China, that the virus, now called SARS-CoV-2, emerged in December 2019, unleashing the greatest infectious disease outbreak since the 1918-19 influenza pandemic.

Our investigations concluded the virus was most likely of animal origin. It probably crossed over to humans from bats, via an as-yet-unknown intermediary animal, at an unknown location. Such “zoonotic” diseases have triggered pandemics before. But we are still working to confirm the exact chain of events that led to the current pandemic. Sampling of bats in Hubei province and wildlife across China has revealed no SARS-CoV-2 to date.

We visited the now-closed Wuhan wet market which, in the early days of the pandemic, was blamed as the source of the virus. Some stalls at the market sold “domesticated” wildlife products. These are animals raised for food, such as bamboo rats, civets and ferret badgers. There is also evidence some domesticated wildlife may be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. However, none of the animal products sampled after the market’s closure tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

We also know that not all of those first 174 early COVID-19 cases visited the market, including the man who was diagnosed in December 2019 with the earliest onset date.

However, when we visited the closed market, it’s easy to see how an infection might have spread there. When it was open, there would have been around 10,000 people visiting a day, in close proximity, with poor ventilation and drainage.

There’s also genetic evidence generated during the mission for a transmission cluster there. Viral sequences from several of the market cases were identical, suggesting a transmission cluster. However, there was some diversity in other viral sequences, implying other unknown or unsampled chains of transmission.

A summary of modelling studies of the time to the most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 sequences estimated the start of the pandemic between mid-November and early December. There are also publications suggesting SARS-CoV-2 circulation in various countries earlier than the first case in Wuhan, although these require confirmation.

The market in Wuhan, in the end, was more of an amplifying event rather than necessarily a true ground zero. So we need to look elsewhere for the viral origins.

::

The most politically sensitive option we looked at was the virus escaping from a laboratory. We concluded this was extremely unlikely.

We visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is an impressive research facility, and looks to be run well, with due regard to staff health.

We spoke to the scientists there. We heard that scientists’ blood samples, which are routinely taken and stored, were tested for signs they had been infected. No evidence of antibodies to the coronavirus was found. We looked at their biosecurity audits. No evidence.

We looked at the closest virus to SARS-CoV-2 they were working on — the virus RaTG13 — which had been detected in caves in southern China where some miners had died seven years previously.

But all the scientists had was a genetic sequence for this virus. They hadn’t managed to grow it in culture. While viruses certainly do escape from laboratories, this is rare. So, we concluded it was extremely unlikely this had happened in Wuhan.

The team of investigators

The mission was a joint exercise between the WHO and the Chinese health commission. In all, there were 17 Chinese and ten international experts, plus seven other experts and support staff from various agencies. We looked at the clinical epidemiology (how COVID-19 spread among people), the molecular epidemiology (the genetic makeup of the virus and its spread), and the role of animals and the environment.

The clinical epidemiology group alone looked at China’s records of 76,000 episodes from more than 200 institutions of anything that could have resembled COVID-19 — such as influenza-like illnesses, pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses. They found no clear evidence of substantial circulation of COVID-19 in Wuhan during the latter part of 2019 before the first case.

Where to now?

Our mission to China was only phase one. We are due to publish our official report in the coming weeks. Investigators will also look further afield for data, to investigate evidence the virus was circulating in Europe, for instance, earlier in 2019. Investigators will continue to test wildlife and other animals in the region for signs of the virus. And we’ll continue to learn from our experiences to improve how we investigate the next pandemic.

Irrespective of the origins of the virus, individual people with the disease are at the beginning of their odyssey. The long-term physical and psychological effects — the tragedy and anxiety — will be felt in Wuhan, and elsewhere, for decades to come.

.

China had stringent lockdowns at the beginning of the pandemic. However, within a few months, China gained control over the spread of Covid-19. Lockdowns have been relatively rare since then. In the meantime, China lists every single infection, every single day, to keep its 1.4 billion People fully informed. You can follow along at China Briefing. This is the past four days, for example:

May 21, 2021 – China reported 24 new confirmed cases, all of which were imported (11 cases in Fujian, 9 cases in Shanghai, 1 case in Henan, 1 case in Hunan, 1 case in Guangdong, and 1 case in Sichuan); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 25 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 23 imported cases and 2 local cases (1 case in Liaoning and 1 case in Anhui); 364 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (344 cases imported from abroad).

May 20, 2021 – China reported 12 new confirmed cases, including 11 imported cases (5 cases in Zhejiang, 2 cases in Shanghai, 1 case in Tianjin, 1 case in Sichuan, and 1 case in Shaanxi) and 1 local case (in Liaoning); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 16 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 15 imported cases and 1 local case in Anhui; 350 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (331 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 449.511 million (as of May 19, 2021).

May 19, 2021 – China reported 14 new confirmed cases, all of which were imported (9 cases in Shanghai, 2 cases in Shaanxi, 1 case in Jiangsu, 1 case in Hubei, and 1 case in Guangdong); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 13 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 12 imported cases and 1 local case in Anhui; 345 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (327 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 435.689 million (as of May 18, 2021).

May 18, 2021 – China reported 22 new confirmed cases, including 18 imported cases (6 cases in Shaanxi, 4 cases in Shanghai, 2 cases in Sichuan, 1 case in Heilongjiang, 1 case in Zhejiang, 1 case in Fujian, 1 case in Shandong, 1 case in Hunan, and 1 case in Guangdong) and 4 local cases (all in Liaoning); no new deaths; 1 new suspected case (imported from abroad in Shanghai). There were 20 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 18 imported cases and 2 local cases in Anhui; 349 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (332 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 421.991 million (as of May 17, 2021).

.

The lockdowns in parts of China were severe, but that time was used to gain firm control over the disease As a result, China's economy made a record-breaking recovery because the the lockdowns.

China: Economy grows at record pace in COVID rebound

China's 2021 first-quarter growth is the fastest since quarterly records began

China's GDP expanded by 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period last year, official data showed on Friday.

The increase is the biggest since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992.

As the virus has hit global markets, the world's second-largest economy seems to be recovering from the coronavirus slump, accelerated by industrial activity and better-than-expected exports.

While the disease first emerged in central China, the country was also the quickest to get a grip on the pandemic after authorities imposed strict control measures.

.

Perhaps lockdowns only work for mature civilizations based on cooperation and consensus. I find it interesting that China managed to eradicate poverty in China at the same time that they seized control over the pandemic.

Clearly, lockdowns will not work in every culture.

—

I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

Submitted by dystopian on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 11:12am

one size rarely fits all

@The Voice In the Wilderness @The Voice In the Wilderness

'works in authoritarian dictatorship'

lockdown also worked in New Zealand, not an authoritarian dictatorship, just kiwis.

—

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein

Submitted by Battle of Blair... on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 5:33pm

@Pluto's Republic 4 pages dedicated to

@Pluto's Republic 4 pages dedicated to whether the virus escaped the lab in a 333 page report the UN said was not good enough.
Mot a shred of evidence to hold up their theory of an animal source.
Now overwhelming evidence points to the virus having escaped the Wuhan Labs.
Why on earth did you post that worthless drivel from the WHO investigation?

The author wants to discuss the specific issue of lockdowns and their impact on national economies. He wants evidence-based conclusions to be drawn from Real World comparisons and outcomes. And there is no better place to start than with China, where we have the most data about lockdowns, and where international retrospective investigations into the Pandemic are underway right now.

The World Health Organization investigation, which kicked off earlier this year in Wuhan, China is an example of one of these international inquiries. After gathering evidence in Wuhan, the WHO effort now continues in other parts of the world as the team follows the evidence it finds. One team member, Dominic Dwyer, has written a recent follow up summary on the Wuhan, China phase of the investigation into Covid-19's origins. Excerpts from his article appear below. Dominic Dwyer is Director of Public Health Pathology and Professor of Medicine for Immunology and Infectious Diseases at the The University of Sydney's School of Medicine.

Now, factual information and discoveries uncovered by these international investigations into the origins of Covid-19 are unlikely to be featured in the United States media. Omitted data and deliberate misdirection by the US State Department has created intellectual chaos in the minds of Americans. This essay presents an opportunity to post a little context in the comments, and drop previously withheld information.

I was on WHO’s Covid mission to China.
Here’s what we found

.

As part of the mission, we met the man who, on December 8, 2019, was the first confirmed COVID-19 case; he’s since recovered. We met the husband of a doctor who died of COVID-19 and left behind a young child. We met the doctors who worked in the Wuhan hospitals treating those early COVID-19 cases, and learned what happened to them and their colleagues. We witnessed the impact of COVID-19 on many individuals and communities, affected so early in the pandemic, when we didn’t know much about the virus, how it spreads, how to treat COVID-19, or its impacts.

We talked to our Chinese counterparts — scientists, epidemiologists, doctors — over the four weeks the WHO mission was in China. We were in meetings with them for up to 15 hours a day, so we became colleagues, even friends. This allowed us to build respect and trust in a way you couldn’t necessarily do via Zoom or email.

This is what we learned about the origins of SARS-CoV-2.

It was in Wuhan, in central China, that the virus, now called SARS-CoV-2, emerged in December 2019, unleashing the greatest infectious disease outbreak since the 1918-19 influenza pandemic.

Our investigations concluded the virus was most likely of animal origin. It probably crossed over to humans from bats, via an as-yet-unknown intermediary animal, at an unknown location. Such “zoonotic” diseases have triggered pandemics before. But we are still working to confirm the exact chain of events that led to the current pandemic. Sampling of bats in Hubei province and wildlife across China has revealed no SARS-CoV-2 to date.

We visited the now-closed Wuhan wet market which, in the early days of the pandemic, was blamed as the source of the virus. Some stalls at the market sold “domesticated” wildlife products. These are animals raised for food, such as bamboo rats, civets and ferret badgers. There is also evidence some domesticated wildlife may be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. However, none of the animal products sampled after the market’s closure tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

We also know that not all of those first 174 early COVID-19 cases visited the market, including the man who was diagnosed in December 2019 with the earliest onset date.

However, when we visited the closed market, it’s easy to see how an infection might have spread there. When it was open, there would have been around 10,000 people visiting a day, in close proximity, with poor ventilation and drainage.

There’s also genetic evidence generated during the mission for a transmission cluster there. Viral sequences from several of the market cases were identical, suggesting a transmission cluster. However, there was some diversity in other viral sequences, implying other unknown or unsampled chains of transmission.

A summary of modelling studies of the time to the most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 sequences estimated the start of the pandemic between mid-November and early December. There are also publications suggesting SARS-CoV-2 circulation in various countries earlier than the first case in Wuhan, although these require confirmation.

The market in Wuhan, in the end, was more of an amplifying event rather than necessarily a true ground zero. So we need to look elsewhere for the viral origins.

::

The most politically sensitive option we looked at was the virus escaping from a laboratory. We concluded this was extremely unlikely.

We visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is an impressive research facility, and looks to be run well, with due regard to staff health.

We spoke to the scientists there. We heard that scientists’ blood samples, which are routinely taken and stored, were tested for signs they had been infected. No evidence of antibodies to the coronavirus was found. We looked at their biosecurity audits. No evidence.

We looked at the closest virus to SARS-CoV-2 they were working on — the virus RaTG13 — which had been detected in caves in southern China where some miners had died seven years previously.

But all the scientists had was a genetic sequence for this virus. They hadn’t managed to grow it in culture. While viruses certainly do escape from laboratories, this is rare. So, we concluded it was extremely unlikely this had happened in Wuhan.

The team of investigators

The mission was a joint exercise between the WHO and the Chinese health commission. In all, there were 17 Chinese and ten international experts, plus seven other experts and support staff from various agencies. We looked at the clinical epidemiology (how COVID-19 spread among people), the molecular epidemiology (the genetic makeup of the virus and its spread), and the role of animals and the environment.

The clinical epidemiology group alone looked at China’s records of 76,000 episodes from more than 200 institutions of anything that could have resembled COVID-19 — such as influenza-like illnesses, pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses. They found no clear evidence of substantial circulation of COVID-19 in Wuhan during the latter part of 2019 before the first case.

Where to now?

Our mission to China was only phase one. We are due to publish our official report in the coming weeks. Investigators will also look further afield for data, to investigate evidence the virus was circulating in Europe, for instance, earlier in 2019. Investigators will continue to test wildlife and other animals in the region for signs of the virus. And we’ll continue to learn from our experiences to improve how we investigate the next pandemic.

Irrespective of the origins of the virus, individual people with the disease are at the beginning of their odyssey. The long-term physical and psychological effects — the tragedy and anxiety — will be felt in Wuhan, and elsewhere, for decades to come.

.

China had stringent lockdowns at the beginning of the pandemic. However, within a few months, China gained control over the spread of Covid-19. Lockdowns have been relatively rare since then. In the meantime, China lists every single infection, every single day, to keep its 1.4 billion People fully informed. You can follow along at China Briefing. This is the past four days, for example:

May 21, 2021 – China reported 24 new confirmed cases, all of which were imported (11 cases in Fujian, 9 cases in Shanghai, 1 case in Henan, 1 case in Hunan, 1 case in Guangdong, and 1 case in Sichuan); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 25 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 23 imported cases and 2 local cases (1 case in Liaoning and 1 case in Anhui); 364 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (344 cases imported from abroad).

May 20, 2021 – China reported 12 new confirmed cases, including 11 imported cases (5 cases in Zhejiang, 2 cases in Shanghai, 1 case in Tianjin, 1 case in Sichuan, and 1 case in Shaanxi) and 1 local case (in Liaoning); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 16 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 15 imported cases and 1 local case in Anhui; 350 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (331 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 449.511 million (as of May 19, 2021).

May 19, 2021 – China reported 14 new confirmed cases, all of which were imported (9 cases in Shanghai, 2 cases in Shaanxi, 1 case in Jiangsu, 1 case in Hubei, and 1 case in Guangdong); no new deaths; no new suspected cases. There were 13 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 12 imported cases and 1 local case in Anhui; 345 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (327 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 435.689 million (as of May 18, 2021).

May 18, 2021 – China reported 22 new confirmed cases, including 18 imported cases (6 cases in Shaanxi, 4 cases in Shanghai, 2 cases in Sichuan, 1 case in Heilongjiang, 1 case in Zhejiang, 1 case in Fujian, 1 case in Shandong, 1 case in Hunan, and 1 case in Guangdong) and 4 local cases (all in Liaoning); no new deaths; 1 new suspected case (imported from abroad in Shanghai). There were 20 new cases of asymptomatic infection, including 18 imported cases and 2 local cases in Anhui; 349 cases of asymptomatic infection are still under medical observation (332 cases imported from abroad).

Total vaccine doses administered: 421.991 million (as of May 17, 2021).

.

The lockdowns in parts of China were severe, but that time was used to gain firm control over the disease As a result, China's economy made a record-breaking recovery because the the lockdowns.

China: Economy grows at record pace in COVID rebound

China's 2021 first-quarter growth is the fastest since quarterly records began

China's GDP expanded by 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period last year, official data showed on Friday.

The increase is the biggest since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992.

As the virus has hit global markets, the world's second-largest economy seems to be recovering from the coronavirus slump, accelerated by industrial activity and better-than-expected exports.

While the disease first emerged in central China, the country was also the quickest to get a grip on the pandemic after authorities imposed strict control measures.

.

Perhaps lockdowns only work for mature civilizations based on cooperation and consensus. I find it interesting that China managed to eradicate poverty in China at the same time that they seized control over the pandemic.

Clearly, lockdowns will not work in every culture.

Submitted by enhydra lutris on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 11:22am

I should stay out of this, but the excaped from a lab

@Battle of Blair Mountain

theory is no more conclusive than the wild source theory. They are both entirely circumstantial. The "escaped" proponents criticize the "wild" proponents for their failure to yet find a vector, but it is noteworthy that the "escaped" proponents have also failed to find a vector. The virus is not a lizard or parrot that can escape and roam about on its own, but must be transmitted by a vector.

The current theory is that it is transmitted as an aerosol. So, what infected lab employee breathed on patient zero? Uhhhh, gee, no answer to that. No detected infected lab employee, nor any detected breathing on victim by lab employees. Lacking evidence that some other patient zero-minus-one breathed it in a bat cave or similarly contaminated, pig sty or chicken/waterfowl cage type locale and then breathed on patient zero there is no vector for the wild theory either.

be well and have a good one

—

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Submitted by Battle of Blair... on Tue, 05/25/2021 - 11:07am

Three lab techs went to the hospital

@enhydra lutris with flu like symptoms right before the outbreak.

The woman has a gun. Smokes coming out of the gun. The man has been shot and the bullet matches the gun, but hey, what do I know? No one literally saw her shoot him so circumstancial right?
I mean, until some people literally see video of a lab tech breathing covid on patient zero it's all circumstantial right?
The furin cleavage.
The aerosol.
The R-R-A-R.
The fact not any evidence of the virus travelling from bat caves a thousand miles to Wuhan.
A lab IN Wuhan.
Bats not affected by this strain.
No intermediate variations like in every other disease known to man. This one sprang seemingly fully adapted to infecting humans right next to a lab WHOSE FUNDED to design a coronavirus that affects humans.
I could go on.
Yeah, just circumstantial.
I'm just curious why you keep telling yourself that?

Submitted by PriceRip on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 6:08pm

"I also read here

that deaths mean nothing -- that experts only care about infections. Ahem."

Actually deaths mean something, but infections mean far more than deaths. That is: The death rate is not a good measure of the impact this virus is having on us. Even though the death rate has generated a lot of havoc and stressed our system. The concern about infection rate is a primary driving concern for health care professionals. These people speak a different language than my "clan", so I have a different approach to arrive at a compatible point of view.

I speak (Particle and Nuclear Physics), so, for me, the great reveal occurred very early in 2020. I read some details about the spike proteins (on the virus's surface) and immediately started thinking about the how this would influence the evolutionary modifications available to the SARS-CoV-2 descendants. As I am not an epidemiologist, I need to make use of an analogy to make the point. The analogy juxtapositions an event from the five decades ago with what is happening today:

In 1971 my mentor left me in charge of the Rad Lab to attend a conference. When I arrived at the lab one morning the Director of the Physical Sciences Division prevented me from entering the Rad Lab. It seems the Director had welcomed a team of Oregon Health Authority technicians to do a radiation evaluation of our rad-waste. Those (less than kind words) were using a Geiger Counter to determine that our waste was not radioactive. Hence, they discarded a very large quantity of very dangerous material into the household trash. That meant the radioactive material was put on the open fires in the open pit dump to be lofted free to be inhaled by all and sundry in this relatively small valley.

The radioactive material is an analog to the SARS-CoV-2. The open fires (releasing our waste containing a witches brew of generated isotopes) is an analog to allowing SARS-CoV-2 to spread far and wide and mutate with reckless abandon. The team of Oregon Health Authority technicians is an analog to those that don't understand epidemiology and have no way to grasp the significance of their work. And, me of five decades ago is an isomorph of me of today.

Spike Protein modifications (read mutations) are driven by Quantum Mechanically defined processes. That means the larger the spread the greater the opportunity for novel mutations to occur. Then, the "cross contamination" enhances the mutation rate. The only way to contain this plague is to stop the spread. If (when?) the vaccines begin to fail we will be back to square one ...

Further, "science based authoritarianism that yields but one answer to every question . . . ", is as cartoonish as it is naive. You obviously don't spent much time around groups of us, particularly those of us in the hard sciences. I have never attended a meeting that "yields but one answer to ~~every~~ any question", ever!

Have a good day!

RIP

Submitted by Battle of Blair... on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 6:27pm

The vaccines will do worse than fail.

@PriceRip they have initiated a biological arms race we cannot win.
Covid-Next will be even deadlier.

What we needed to do from day one was take it on the chin. We had no other choice.

that deaths mean nothing -- that experts only care about infections. Ahem."

Actually deaths mean something, but infections mean far more than deaths. That is: The death rate is not a good measure of the impact this virus is having on us. Even though the death rate has generated a lot of havoc and stressed our system. The concern about infection rate is a primary driving concern for health care professionals. These people speak a different language than my "clan", so I have a different approach to arrive at a compatible point of view.

I speak (Particle and Nuclear Physics), so, for me, the great reveal occurred very early in 2020. I read some details about the spike proteins (on the virus's surface) and immediately started thinking about the how this would influence the evolutionary modifications available to the SARS-CoV-2 descendants. As I am not an epidemiologist, I need to make use of an analogy to make the point. The analogy juxtapositions an event from the five decades ago with what is happening today:

In 1971 my mentor left me in charge of the Rad Lab to attend a conference. When I arrived at the lab one morning the Director of the Physical Sciences Division prevented me from entering the Rad Lab. It seems the Director had welcomed a team of Oregon Health Authority technicians to do a radiation evaluation of our rad-waste. Those (less than kind words) were using a Geiger Counter to determine that our waste was not radioactive. Hence, they discarded a very large quantity of very dangerous material into the household trash. That meant the radioactive material was put on the open fires in the open pit dump to be lofted free to be inhaled by all and sundry in this relatively small valley.

The radioactive material is an analog to the SARS-CoV-2. The open fires (releasing our waste containing a witches brew of generated isotopes) is an analog to allowing SARS-CoV-2 to spread far and wide and mutate with reckless abandon. The team of Oregon Health Authority technicians is an analog to those that don't understand epidemiology and have no way to grasp the significance of their work. And, me of five decades ago is an isomorph of me of today.

Spike Protein modifications (read mutations) are driven by Quantum Mechanically defined processes. That means the larger the spread the greater the opportunity for novel mutations to occur. Then, the "cross contamination" enhances the mutation rate. The only way to contain this plague is to stop the spread. If (when?) the vaccines begin to fail we will be back to square one ...

Further, "science based authoritarianism that yields but one answer to every question . . . ", is as cartoonish as it is naive. You obviously don't spent much time around groups of us, particularly those of us in the hard sciences. I have never attended a meeting that "yields but one answer to ~~every~~ any question", ever!

Have a good day!

RIP

Submitted by PriceRip on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 8:39pm

They have not.

@Battle of Blair Mountain

Submitted by Blue Republic on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 10:40am

I think you called it, BoBM

@Battle of Blair Mountain

The vaccines will do worse than fail they have initiated a biological arms race we cannot win.
Covid-Next will be even deadlier.
What we needed to do from day one was take it on the chin. We had no other choice.

I suspect you are right. While the disease is obviously deadly for some, especially in the absence of early treatment, it appears to be survivable overall 99+ percent of the time and hardly calls for upending society and bribing and coercing people into accepting a non-fully tested pharmaceutical for which it's makers assume no liability whatsoever if/when things go wrong for those receiving it.

There are virologists, immunologists, epidemiologists, medical doctors, etc. that agree - at least if we are talking about the currently available vaccines-that-are not-vaccines (in any traditional sense) Byram Bridle , for one Geert Vanden Bosche for another, former Pfizer VP and Chief Science Officer Anthony Yeadon to name but a very few that say the types of vaccines and the way they are being rolled out arguing to drive the development of variants that will be able to evade current the current vaccines.

Even generally pro-vaccine types such as Dr. Been acknowledge that the protection obtained by having had, then recovering from Covid is much broader than that acquired solely through vaccination. And recent studies in Israel suggest that such natural immunity is just as effective as vaccination in protecting against the virus.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210426/Prior-SARS-CoV-2-infection-and-Pfizer-BioNTeche28099s-COVID-19-vaccine-provide-similar-immunity.aspx

The scientists and medical professionals with dissenting views are not all in agreement with one another, but there are certainly enough of them to make it clear that there is no 'Scientific Consensus' here. The attempted stifling of dissent from the official narrative is extremely destructive for science, medicine and society generally.

From former Pfizer VP Yeadon:

“I have absolutely no doubt that we are in the presence of evil (not a determination I’ve ever made before in a 40-year research career) and dangerous products.

“In the U.K., it’s abundantly clear that the authorities are bent on a course which will result in administering ‘vaccines’ to as many of the population as they can. This is madness, because even if these agents were legitimate, protection is needed only by those at notably elevated risk of death from the virus. In those people, there might even be an argument that the risks are worth bearing. And there definitely are risks which are what I call ‘mechanistic’: inbuilt in the way they work.

“But all the other people, those in good health and younger than 60 years, perhaps a little older, they don’t perish from the virus. In this large group, it’s wholly unethical to administer something novel and for which the potential for unwanted effects after a few months is completely uncharacterized.

“In no other era would it be wise to do what is stated as the intention.

“Since I know this with certainty, and I know those driving it know this too, we have to enquire: What is their motive?

“While I don’t know, I have strong theoretical answers, only one of which relates to money and that motive doesn’t work, because the same quantum can be arrived at by doubling the unit cost and giving the agent to half as many people. Dilemma solved. So it’s something else. Appreciating that, by entire population, it is also intended that minor children and eventually babies are to be included in the net, and that’s what I interpret to be an evil act.

“There is no medical rationale for it. Knowing as I do that the design of these ‘vaccines’ results, in the expression in the bodies of recipients, expression of the spike protein, which has adverse biological effects of its own which, in some people, are harmful (initiating blood coagulation and activating the immune ‘complement system’), I’m determined to point out that those not at risk from this virus should not be exposed to the risk of unwanted effects from these agents.”

Another good read/reality check here

Submitted by enhydra lutris on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 11:45am

Covid-Next, as you call it, has already been discovered

@Battle of Blair Mountain

and it is pretty much no big deal. It may have been around, undetected for some time precisely because it is no big deal. It appears to have originated in a dog. It was detected in a pneumonia patient. Dunno where I read about it, but the NYT has an article that may be about it, if you can read the NYT = https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/20/health/dogs-coronavirus-infections.html.

Found something akin to what I read here: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/05/20/996515792/a-newly-i...

Some interesting key points:

1) Coronavirii (like many flu virii) have jumped from critters to poeple before (unless they all escaped from labs) so we should start looking for them
1a) This might be the eighth?

2) This one appears to have jumped from dogs to mostly kids (victim class not surprising given source) though it also probably also infected cats and pigs at some point.

3) Possibly checking any and all pneumonia patients for any and all coronavirus candidates might be a wise routine to initiate.

4) discussing the findings of a particular researcher looking at the viral DNA:

Then she found a disturbing clue about the virus's future. "We did discover a very, very unique mutation — or deletion — in the genome," Vlasova says. That specific deletion, she says, isn't present in any other known dog coronaviruses, but it is found somewhere else: in human coronaviruses. "It's a mutation that's very similar to one previously found in the SARS coronavirus and in [versions of] SARS-CoV-2 ... [that appeared] very soon after its introduction into the human population," Vlastova says.

This deletion, she believes, helps the dog virus infect or persist inside humans. And it may be a key step required for coronaviruses to make the jump into people.

"Apparently the deletion is somehow associated with [the virus'] adaptation during this jump from animal to human," she says.

be well and have a good one

—

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Submitted by Battle of Blair... on Tue, 05/25/2021 - 11:18am

That's an outcome - not a process

@enhydra lutris and it's only one outcome.
I can't look it up right now so sorry no linkie, but a Nobel Prize winning virologist and a slew of others wrote a letter warning - I think it was Israel IIRC - not to vaccinate because it would initiate a bio race with the virus.
Similar to how antibiotics helped create resistant strains, I'm guessing.

Submitted by dystopian on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 11:13am

thanks for this

@PriceRip great post, especially the last paragraph...

that deaths mean nothing -- that experts only care about infections. Ahem."

Actually deaths mean something, but infections mean far more than deaths. That is: The death rate is not a good measure of the impact this virus is having on us. Even though the death rate has generated a lot of havoc and stressed our system. The concern about infection rate is a primary driving concern for health care professionals. These people speak a different language than my "clan", so I have a different approach to arrive at a compatible point of view.

I speak (Particle and Nuclear Physics), so, for me, the great reveal occurred very early in 2020. I read some details about the spike proteins (on the virus's surface) and immediately started thinking about the how this would influence the evolutionary modifications available to the SARS-CoV-2 descendants. As I am not an epidemiologist, I need to make use of an analogy to make the point. The analogy juxtapositions an event from the five decades ago with what is happening today:

In 1971 my mentor left me in charge of the Rad Lab to attend a conference. When I arrived at the lab one morning the Director of the Physical Sciences Division prevented me from entering the Rad Lab. It seems the Director had welcomed a team of Oregon Health Authority technicians to do a radiation evaluation of our rad-waste. Those (less than kind words) were using a Geiger Counter to determine that our waste was not radioactive. Hence, they discarded a very large quantity of very dangerous material into the household trash. That meant the radioactive material was put on the open fires in the open pit dump to be lofted free to be inhaled by all and sundry in this relatively small valley.

The radioactive material is an analog to the SARS-CoV-2. The open fires (releasing our waste containing a witches brew of generated isotopes) is an analog to allowing SARS-CoV-2 to spread far and wide and mutate with reckless abandon. The team of Oregon Health Authority technicians is an analog to those that don't understand epidemiology and have no way to grasp the significance of their work. And, me of five decades ago is an isomorph of me of today.

Spike Protein modifications (read mutations) are driven by Quantum Mechanically defined processes. That means the larger the spread the greater the opportunity for novel mutations to occur. Then, the "cross contamination" enhances the mutation rate. The only way to contain this plague is to stop the spread. If (when?) the vaccines begin to fail we will be back to square one ...

Further, "science based authoritarianism that yields but one answer to every question . . . ", is as cartoonish as it is naive. You obviously don't spent much time around groups of us, particularly those of us in the hard sciences. I have never attended a meeting that "yields but one answer to ~~every~~ any question", ever!

Have a good day!

RIP

—

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein

Submitted by PriceRip on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 9:03pm

I have a suspicion

that there may be very large contingent of people that don't understand how science works.

Contrarily this contingent may enthusiastically embrace the many ways pseudoscience supposedly does a better job of explaining Reality.

If my suspicion is confirmed I suspect I should withdraw · · · bid you adieu · · · and · · ·

RIP

Submitted by vtcc73 on Sat, 05/22/2021 - 10:48pm

No, friend,

@PriceRip your perspective and expertise are needed here. Those who are steadfast in their positions while refusing, or not having the skills, to understand or follow where actual evidence leads, but instead seek any shred of what they think is "evidence" to support their position, may not want to hear what you have to say. So what? What you and others like you have to offer needs said nonetheless. The battle for civilization has become one of belief, faith, being considered fact and popular and/or oft repeated nonsense being truth versus verified evidence and rational critical thinking taken to conclusion(s) where ever they lead. It's "wishing makes it so" against skilled investigation and rational thinking leading to conclusions that describe reality. The rational ones shutting up and going away is no solution.

The only reason I chimed in on this thread is to respond to you. A comment from me is otherwise a waste of breath and my time. The author of this essay has lost any benefit of doubt from me that he/she's only purpose is to proclaim his/her beliefs and faulty thinking to be right. Half a dozen essays with the same regurgitated nonsense of cherry picked "evidence" to support the same conclusion is enough. He/she may live in that world. I have nothing else to say about anything written on this subject from this author. But I won't just go away as easy and attractive as that may be.

—

"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

Submitted by ScienceTeacher on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 6:13pm

@vtcc73 I stopped participating

@vtcc73 I stopped participating because the abuse was causing me too much stress.

My PhD is in biochemistry so it would have been nice if it had been possible to share information with people from other backgrounds. There is no point in posting summaries of the latest information from top medical and scientific journals just to be bullied by ignorant people with completely closed minds.

The resident abusers clearly know nothing about science or about people who engage in research. People who make up their minds irrevocably on the basis of a couple of U-tube videos cannot understand the humility needed for scientific inquiry. Those of us with technical backgrounds are not the arrogant ones.

The closed-minded insults go to be too much to cope with, especially since I have suffered personally and economically from the lockdown situation.

Submitted by PriceRip on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 6:50pm

Yep

@ScienceTeacher

I quit for about 14 months · · ·

And remember, any attempt to clarify expertise is interpreted as expressing raw ego · · ·

RIP

Submitted by vtcc73 on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 10:01pm

I’m with you.

@PriceRip I don’t participate nearly as much as I used to. I write only occasionally but so often I don’t really see the point.

Trump’s influence and toxicity was bad enough but add the trauma many feel from more than a year of fighting a pandemic and so many have lost their bearings. A lot of the content here sounds like the thinking I’ve heard from trumpistas since 2015. It’s not just here but friends and how my attitude was so bad before I escaped the asylum. I’m not immersed in the craziness and sure as hell don’t go looking for it. It hurts seeing it here where I’ve enjoyed being since TOP imploded.

It sucks being a slave to my bullshit detector but that’s where I am. I’ve managed to be able to step away and ignore most of it. There is still content worthy of my consideration and people worthy of listening to. My time here has become a “take what I want, leave the rest” existence. I engage when it seems I can offer something others will find worth reading. What anyone thinks of me is none of my business. They don’t like what I think or write that’s fine. I can ignore their noise.

When I lose those worth listening to like you guys then there is no point except to support JtC which I will continue to do. What I won’t do is run from a fight for the sanity I became used to here. I won’t let a few who have to compulsively transmit their nonsense, have to be right, can’t listen, and be adults ruin a generally good forum.

I hope to not see you guys move on. That’s how our country has become what it is.

—

"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

Submitted by Blue Republic on Mon, 05/24/2021 - 11:00am

So, teach.

@ScienceTeacher

I'm guessing the the author of this blog - Doug Corrigan might meet your standard for "people involved in research" as do the MIT and Harvard researchers whose work he is citing.

Zhang, Liguo, Alexsia Richards, Andrew Khalil, Emile Wogram, Haiting Ma, Richard A. Young, and Rudolf Jaenisch. “SARS-CoV-2 RNA reverse-transcribed and integrated into the human genome.” bioRxiv (2020).

Yet, Corrigan is emphatic that mRNA vaccines have not been adequately tested and that risks from ADE which may not appear for months or years post-vaccination. He also outlined mechanisms for, and which research appears to validate, that wild SARS-CoV-2 RNA can, in fact, "modify human DNA" - which we have been assured by the CDC and posters here can and does not happen and that to suggest otherwise is to descend into the realm of paranoid conspiracy wackiness.

Still , Corrigan (and the MIT and Harvard research) seem to reinforce some important concerns of Covid vaccine skeptics - have they got it wrong somehow? Is so, hey, you're the teacher - point out where and how and deliver us from our ignorance we currently wallow in.

Quoting from the study:

we found chimeric transcripts consisting of viral fused to cellular sequences in published data sets of SARS-CoV-2 infected cultured cells and primary cells of patients, consistent with the transcription of viral sequences integrated into the genome. To experimentally corroborate the possibility of viral retro-integration, we describe evidence that SARS-CoV-2 RNAs can be reverse transcribed in human cells by reverse transcriptase (RT) from LINE-1 elements or by HIV-1 RT, and that these DNA sequences can be integrated into the cell genome and subsequently be transcribed. Human endogenous LINE-1 expression was induced upon SARS-CoV-2 infection or by cytokine exposure in cultured cells, suggesting a molecular mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 retro-integration in patients. This novel feature of SARS-CoV-2 infection may explain why patients can continue to produce viral RNA after recovery and suggests a new aspect of RNA virus replication.”

Corrigan breaks the paper's findings down for his blog audience thusly:

In this paper, they demonstrate that:

1) Segments of SARS-CoV-2 Viral RNA can become integrated into human genomic DNA.

2) This newly acquired viral sequence is not silent, meaning that these genetically modified regions of genomic DNA are transcriptionally active (DNA is being converted back into RNA).

3) Segments of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA retro-integrated into human genomic DNA in cell culture. This retro-integration into genomic DNA of COVID-19 patients is also implied indirectly from the detection of chimeric RNA transcripts in cells derived from COVID-19 patients. Although their RNAseq data suggests that genomic alteration is taking place in COVID-19 patients, to prove this point conclusively, PCR, DNA sequencing, or Southern Blot should be carried out on purified genomic DNA of COVID-19 patients to prove this point conclusively. This is a gap that needs to be closed in the research. The in vitro data in human cell lines, however, is air tight.

4) This viral retro-integration of RNA into DNA can be induced by endogenous LINE-1 retrotransposons, which produce an active reverse transcriptase (RT) that converts RNA into DNA. (All humans have multiple copies of LINE-1 retrotransposons residing in their genome.). The frequency of retro-integration of viral RNA into DNA is positively correlated with LINE-1 expression levels in the cell.

5) These LINE-1 retrotransposons can be activated by viral infection with SARS-CoV-2, or cytokine exposure to cells, and this increases the probability of retro-integration.

He continues and concludes:

Instead of going through all of their results in detail (you can do that if you like by reading their paper linked below), I will answer the big question on everyone’s mind – If the virus is able to accomplish this, then why should I care if the vaccine does the same thing?

Well, first let’s just address the big elephant in the room first. First, you should care because, “THEY TOLD YOU THAT THIS WAS IMPOSSIBLE AND TO JUST SHUT UP AND TAKE THE VACCINE.” These pathways that I hypothesized (and these researchers verified with their experiments) are not unknown to people who understand molecular biology at a deeper level. This is not hidden knowledge which is only available to the initiated. I can assure you that the people who are developing the vaccines are people who understand molecular biology at a very sophisticated level. So, why didn’t they discover this, or even ask this question, or even do some experiments to rule it out? Instead, they just used superficially simplistic biology 101 as a smoke screen to tell you that RNA doesn’t convert into DNA. This is utterly disingenuous, and this lack of candor is what motivated me to write my original article. They could have figured this out easily.

Second, there’s a big difference between the scenario where people randomly, and unwittingly, have their genetics monkeyed with because they were exposed to the coronavirus, and the scenario where we willfully vaccinate billions of people while telling them this isn’t happening. Wouldn’t you agree? What is the logic in saying, “Well, this bad thing may or may not happen to you, so we’re going to remove the mystery and ensure that it happens to everyone.”? In my best estimate, this is an ethical decision that you ought to make, not them.

Third, the RNA in the vaccine is a different animal than the RNA produced by the virus. The RNA in the vaccine is artificially engineered. First, it is engineered to stay around in your cells for a much longer time than usual (RNA is naturally unstable and degrades quickly in the cell). Second, it is engineered such that it is efficient at being translated into protein (they accomplish this by codon optimization). Increasing the stability of the RNA increases the probability that it will become integrated into your DNA; and, increasing the translation efficiency increases the amount of protein translated from the RNA if it does happen to become incorporated into your DNA in a transcriptionally active region of your genome. Theoretically, this means that whatever negative effects are associated with the natural process of viral RNA/DNA integration, these negative effects could be more frequent and more pronounced with the vaccine when compared to the natural virus.

As a side note, these researchers found that the genetic information for the nucleocapsid “N” protein was, by far, the largest culprit for being permanently integrated into human DNA (because this RNA is more abundant when the virus replicates in our cells). The vaccine, on the other hand, contains RNA that encodes the Spike (S) protein. Therefore, if the mRNA from the vaccine (or subsegments thereof) were to make its way into a transcriptionally-active region of our genome through a retro-integration process, it will cause our cells to produce an over-abundance of Spike protein, rather than N protein. Our immune system does make antibodies to both N and S proteins, but it is the Spike protein which is the prime target for our immune system because it exists on the outside of the virus. If our cells become permanent (rather than temporary) Spike Protein producing factories due to permanent alteration of our genomic DNA, this could lead to serious autoimmune problems. I would imagine that autoimmunity profiles arising from such a scenario would be differentiated based on order of events (i.e., whether or not someone is vaccinated before or after exposure to coronavirus).

Again, this is a theoretical exercise I am presenting for consideration. I am not making the claim that an mRNA vaccine will permanently alter your genomic DNA, and I didn’t make this claim in my first article, although it appears that troll sites made the fallacious claim that I did. I simply asked the question, and provided hypothetical, plausible molecular pathways by which such an event could occur. I believe this current research validates that this is at least plausible, and most likely probable. It most certainly deserves closer inspection and testing to rule this possibility out, and I would hope that a rigorous and comprehensive test program would be instituted with the same enthusiasm that propelled the vaccine haphazardly through the normal safety checkpoints.

Obviously, even given this information, people are still free to get vaccinated, and will do so according to the overall balance of risks and rewards that they perceive in their mind. The purpose of my article is to make sure you can make that assessment fairly by possessing all potential risks and rewards, rather than an incomplete set. For something as important as this, you should not be operating in the dark.

I would encourage you to share this article to let others know of the potential risks and rewards

source

OK Dr. Doug, consider it done.

Well, 'Teach'?

Corrigan's initial (Nov., 2020) blog post here

Submitted by dystopian on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 11:14am

you got it

@PriceRip nail on head ...

—

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein

Submitted by dystopian on Sun, 05/23/2021 - 11:18am

name 2 things that never happened

science based authoritarianism that yields but one answer to every question

Science, speaking in one voice,

I see someone that hasn't spent much time around many scientists or know much about how science works.

—

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein

Sweden Now Number 33

Comments

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