@vtcc73 decided to become French citizens we would lose our Soc Sec. We already lost our paid in Medicare, with no offer of reimbursement.

Lucky you get to vote in local elections. We have our ten year residency cards now. So now yearly pilgrimage to the Prefecture for new cards and photos.

#1 #1 I should be qualified to vote in this election. I'm a permanent resident and I've lived here for three years. Those qualify me to vote and to take Ecuadorian citizenship. My son said this week that he will pursue citizenship. He has a high bar to cross with learning Spanish. That he's committed to seeking citizenship should be enough of a push to put in the effort. It's not a simple or short process. Good. I'm undecided but want to take citizenship as well. It is a lengthy commitment of time and effort. Fortunately, there are several very good programs to prepare us.

Being a resident and over 65 are two reasons to be allowed to not vote. Others include being quarantined with COVID and being illiterate. Otherwise, it is a requirement to vote that carries a few penalties on taxes and ineligibilities for other exemptions/discounts if you fail to vote and aren’t exempt like I am. I have a couple of minor issues with requiring people to vote but the system here is designed to make it as easy as possible to vote. There are lots of polling places. (One great idea was explained to me just last week. My builder's cousin, he's about to graduate with an International Business degree, was chosen in the lottery to be a poll worker. He attended two full days of classes in preparation. This, too, is a citizenship obligation that ignores politics.) Just having a cedula, national ID card, "registers" a person to vote. The best, and possibly the most potentially harmful, item is a "None of the above" box for all offices and referendums.

"None of the above" and undecideds hold 35-40% of the poll responses. A very high, unusually so for Ecuador I'm told, number of people here do not see any candidate for president as attractive. They don't think any candidate was truthful about their positions and that none will change anything. Sound familiar? These are US-like numbers and opinions. Polls here are complete fantasy but with these numbers and something like 35-40 presidential candidates there is no way of knowing how this election will go.

Fortunately, there are enough differences of opinion and good arguments to get some feel for how things will go down. Nobody thinks any presidential candidate will win outright. The first round can be won with 50% of the vote or 40% of the vote and a 10% lead over number two. So, more than a third of electorate who are the nones and don't knows will decide the election. They won't just not show up like in the US. The presidential election will almost certainly go to a runoff.

The two most likely two are Arauz, a Correaista, and Lasso, a neoliberal and serial bankster. Lasso has been trying to be president for 40 years according to a friend. The very first thing I ever heard of him was that he was saying that the IMF and World Bank were the only path to prosperity and jobs for Ecuador's forgotten middle class. Anyone with any knowledge of the history of these two entities in South America would, like me, run away screaming. He's scum and a fraudster/conman. How he isn't in jail for bank fraud and tax evasion is explained by the power of influence here. He had several banks fail in the late '90s and he fled with all he could take. He is know to have had 40+ offshore post office box companies for funneling money. Correa tried to get him (possibly a political motivated play) but failed. When Correa's successor, former Correa VP and current president Morreno, was elected everything was forgotten. Coupled with Morreno's hard right turn as soon as he took office and not standing for another term, it looks a lot like he was only holding the office for Lasso. But I could be wrong. Lasso winning would throw open the doors to the plunder of Ecuador's natural resources and environment but on steroids. Ecuador would once again be firmly in the US sphere of influence. Lasso is a neocon and neoliberal's wet dream.

Arauz is young and has good ideas but has no clear path to making them happen. His ideas/promises, like every other candidate, will have no money to support them than the investments he can attract to the country. He would be good for the poor and lower middle class but only if he can get legislative support and find funding that is not IMF and/or World Bank vampires. China, only a slightly lesser evil, is the likely source. Personally, I think Arauz is the best path forward for Ecuador. Like Bernie, though, the chances of him being able to do much is likely be fiercely opposed by the country's elites and big money.

The spoiler or possible king maker is Yaku Perez. He's held a very solid 10% in polls. He's the indigenous candidate who I think will pull more than 10%. Possibly much more. I expect him to be more of a drag on Arauz but could be an ally in round two. It was hoped early the two would join forces. It didn't happen due to the usual idealism and old animosities between their followers. Together they would have wrecked Lasso. IMHO. In a more perfect world I could not choose between Yaku and Arauz though the edge goes to Arauz. I'd love to see them come together somehow.

Current thinking is that Arauz will beat Lasso in the first round but probably won't have 40+10%. The second round result is anything but foreseeable. I think Arauz would prevail but it would be tight.

Unfortunately, that is only a beginning. Actually being able to do anything will depend on support in the legislature and being able to fund any programs. The economic situation is not good here. Just digging out of the economic hole left by oil price collapse and COVID is going to require funding that will be opposed by the elites and big money. (Unless they can be assured of grabbing their piece.) It's quite possible Arauz could win the election but be neutered straight away. He's going to be playing with multiple evils.