Poll Diving – Last Call
The easiest call is that Trump will lose the national popular vote, again. Will leave it to others to project whether it will be by more or less than 2016 as I haven't focused on that aspect.
The Presidential and Senate elections generally work in tandem. For example, if the Republican presidential nominee is favored, the Republican senate nominee will also be favored. If it's a well-regarded, incumbent, Republican senator, she/he will get a larger share of the vote than the Republican nominee. Several factors, that I won't belabor, are always in play that result in outcomes that are different from the forgoing but nevertheless, typical patterns. For example, Maine 2008. Obama 58% and Collins 61%.
A regular pattern and incumbent holds appear in
Michigan – Biden and Peters
Minnesota – Biden and Smith
New Hampshire – Biden and Sheheen
Texas - Trump +4 and Cornyn +8 to +10
So far, Colorado and Maine are shaping up into a slightly irregular pattern. Incumbency is irrelevant. My calls (and I don't usually do margins; so this is an experiment) are:
Biden +8 to 10
Hickenlooper +7 to 9
Biden +9 to 11
Gideon +5 to 7
Incumbency is a minor factor in AL
Georgia (Class 2 seat) is closing on a usual pattern:
Alaska is also usual (not that I would know if something is going on there) – Trump and Sullivan.
It's looking a lot like there may be pattern breaks in some states and again incumbency isn't a strong factor (in order of my confidence as to the candidate that will win):
Arizona – Biden +1 and Kelly +4
North Carolina - Trump +2 and Cunningham +2
Iowa – Trump +4 and Greenfield +0.5
Montana – Trump + 7 and Bullock +0.5 (it was +20 for Trump in 2016)
There's some logic behind my calls on the IA and MT senate races, but they are dicey, and therefore, I'm not at all confident that I've gotten them right.
States without Senate races:
Ohio – Trump +4
Wisconsin – Biden +4.5
Pennsylvania – Biden +2
Florida – Biden +1
Among the three states that I've projected narrow wins for Biden and one narrow win for Trump: AZ, FL, NC and PA, Biden only has to carry AZ plus ME-CD-2, or any one of the other three. Trump, OTOH, needs all four.