Poll Diving – Last Call

The easiest call is that Trump will lose the national popular vote, again. Will leave it to others to project whether it will be by more or less than 2016 as I haven't focused on that aspect.

The Presidential and Senate elections generally work in tandem. For example, if the Republican presidential nominee is favored, the Republican senate nominee will also be favored. If it's a well-regarded, incumbent, Republican senator, she/he will get a larger share of the vote than the Republican nominee. Several factors, that I won't belabor, are always in play that result in outcomes that are different from the forgoing but nevertheless, typical patterns. For example, Maine 2008. Obama 58% and Collins 61%.

A regular pattern and incumbent holds appear in

Michigan – Biden and Peters

Minnesota – Biden and Smith

New Hampshire – Biden and Sheheen

Near regular:

Texas - Trump +4 and Cornyn +8 to +10

So far, Colorado and Maine are shaping up into a slightly irregular pattern. Incumbency is irrelevant. My calls (and I don't usually do margins; so this is an experiment) are:

Biden +8 to 10
Hickenlooper +7 to 9

Biden +9 to 11
Gideon +5 to 7

Incumbency is a minor factor in AL

Trump +22
Tuberville +18

Georgia (Class 2 seat) is closing on a usual pattern:

Trump +3
Perdue +2

Alaska is also usual (not that I would know if something is going on there) – Trump and Sullivan.

It's looking a lot like there may be pattern breaks in some states and again incumbency isn't a strong factor (in order of my confidence as to the candidate that will win):

Arizona – Biden +1 and Kelly +4

North Carolina - Trump +2 and Cunningham +2

Iowa – Trump +4 and Greenfield +0.5

Montana – Trump + 7 and Bullock +0.5 (it was +20 for Trump in 2016)

There's some logic behind my calls on the IA and MT senate races, but they are dicey, and therefore, I'm not at all confident that I've gotten them right.

States without Senate races:

Ohio – Trump +4

Wisconsin – Biden +4.5

Pennsylvania – Biden +2

Florida – Biden +1

Among the three states that I've projected narrow wins for Biden and one narrow win for Trump: AZ, FL, NC and PA, Biden only has to carry AZ plus ME-CD-2, or any one of the other three. Trump, OTOH, needs all four.

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Florida will be a 2000 repeat. They'll throw out all the Miami votes, and give it to Trump. Trump might win Arizona as well.

But, Biden will win Pennsylvania, and that's all that matters.

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@apenultimate It wouldn't really serve FL election officials to toss out votes when it doesn't matter. It will be close there, but if advantage Biden is correct and it's a mere +0.2, that's too many votes to toss. While it's unknown how many were tossed and how many votes were effectively suppressed in 2000, my guestimate is that it was less what would be required to disappear a 0.2% win for Biden.

Also agree that AZ is dicey. Not sure I did more than flip a coin.

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TheOtherMaven's picture


and if he does, he's still got to sweep the Great Lakes states. All three of them.

Florida only goes Dem under fairly specific conditions, which I don't see this year.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

@TheOtherMaven -- and MI, MN, and WI won't be particularly close -- Biden wins with:

AZ plus ME-CD2

The last three are close enough that they could go either way.

Care to share the specific conditions under which FL turns blue? It's not as if it wasn't very close in 2016. Not as close as PA, MI, and WI, by my projected swing from Trump in FL is quite small and less than what we'll in many solid red states.

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TheOtherMaven's picture


1) there was a Southerner heading the ticket (Johnson 1964, Carter 1976, Clinton 1996, 2nd term) or

2) Obama headed the ticket (slick SOB could talk the spots off a leopard).

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

@TheOtherMaven before 2008 doubt that you and anybody else including myself would ever have opined that the way to carry FL was to put a non-southern Black man at the top of the ticket.

You left off Gore in your #1.

I actually don't find Obama or Bill Clinton to be all that slick. Both lucked out in landing the nomination when the economy, opponent, and the GOP were at weak points. In other election cycles, Democrats have nominated the most appalling candidates.

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TheOtherMaven's picture


not just *on* the ticket.

As for 2000, we all know (now) that was royally screwed up.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

As someone who lives in Florida, I have always believed that Trump would win. My relatives in Ohio and Michigan also believe that he will win there.

But in the greatest news ever, Amendment II to increase the minimum wage passed with over 61%.

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