The Race Tightens
Submitted by apenultimate on Fri, 10/23/2020 - 1:45pm
The latest polls out of Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina show Trump with a slight lead in those states.
Florida
Arizona (warning, Trump trigger potential)
North Carolina
These are all within the margin of error, so they could all swing either way. But, if Biden loses those three states, the only state holding us back from another Trump term is Pennsylvania.
All this polling was done pre-debate, so over the next few days we'll see how the debate played out.
Comments
Single polls aren't that telling.
Watch trends and look for internal and external validity.
The trend lines don't yet have Trump closing the deal in FL or NC. Surprising to me as my read by early October 2016 was that he had both states.
Susquehanna is a GOP polling outfit and Rasmussen leans right.
More polls will be released in the next week. If anything is happening to shift the electorate in Trump's favor, those polls will be telling.
This article puts Biden ahead
This article puts Biden ahead in Arizona by 3.5 points:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/arizona-is-ready-to-toss-donald-...
According to Real Clear Politics Biden is ahead in Florida and North Carolina by 1.5. I suspect that Trump will win FL and NC and Ohio, Biden will pick up Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
But who knows?
Bandwagon effect
Any released polls now are just electioneering.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Huge number of votes already in in NC
and a lot in Florida as well. Late vote shifts will be less consequential than in previous years.
Yes, the fallacy of having Election Month instead of
Election Day. Coupled with ballots found in garbage dumps (placed by contractors NOT USPS personnel)
Coupled with courts ruling that even if postmarked earlier, ballots must be received on time to be counted. Coupled with Trump's planned destruction of the Postal service (are they planning to contract with Bezos?).
I will never be sure who really won no matter who is installed by the Court. While objectively I hate both candidates, I still mourn for the tattered shreds of democracy in America.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Both pollsters are unreliable
especially Susquehanna Polling.