Poll Diving – part 4

So far, I've only projected two flip states, AZ and MI. Two trending in that direction, PA and WI. Two more also trending blue, but less so, IA and NC, with IA more likely to flip than NC.

Guess it's time for the “red” F state. (I'm literally allergic to it. Some critter(s) there love to chomp on me and leaves my legs covered in huge blisters.) And two tiny (population wise) states that for good reasons get ignored.

Florida

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 49.0% and Clinton 47.8%
Senate – Rubio 52.0% (inc R) and Murphy 44.3%

2020 election polling:

President – Trump 47.0% and Biden 48.7% (RCP aggregate)
Senate – none

Murphy was a Republican until 2011 – so, not much of a Democrat. FL polls always seem to give Democrats hope, but much like NC, FL only goes blue when it doesn't matter. My rule of thumb in reading FL presidential polls (don't generally give other races there more than a glance which is about all that's needed) is to add two points to the GOP candidate. That puts Trump where he ended up in 2016. As Johnson took 2.2% in 2016, my guess is that Trump will hit 50%.

Alaska

(Don't laugh; okay go ahead.) – We're looking for shapes/narratives. The polling here may be crap and maybe it's best to ignore it, but there are a couple of sort of interesting aspects.

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 62% and Clinton 34%
Senate – Murkowski 44% (inc R) and Lib, Ind, and Dem split the balance.
House Rep – Young 50% (inc R) and Linbeck 36%

2018 election outcome:
House Rep – Young 53% (inc R) and Galvin 47%

2020 election polling:

President – Trump 45 to 53% and Biden 39 to 44%
Senate – Sullivan 45 to 48% (inc R) and Gross (fusion) 37 to 47%

House - Young vs. Galvin
The two early polls had it as 41-42% to 43.%
Sept-Oct AK Survey 46% to 48%
SienaNYT 49% to 41%

Again Trump not as strong and Biden doing better than Clinton. Winner not in doubt.

The Senate race is potentially more interesting. Sullivan is a first term Senator and won with 48% in 2014. Sullivan is not a native Alaskan. Moved there in 1997. Prior to his senate win, all of his political positions were appointed by GWB, Sarah Palin, and Gov Parnell.

Al Gross is a native Alaskan (not indigenous) and orthopedic surgeon. His father, Avrum Gross, was a former AK AG and contributed to the establishment of the Alaska Permanent Fund. Neither Gross nor his father have been or were politicians and fishing and fisheries have been their avocation; sometimes that's an advantage and sometimes it's a handicap.

Don Young has been a politician since 1964 when he was elected mayor of Fort Yukon and from there to the AK House, then AK Senate, and in 1972 elected to the US House where he's been ever since. Don't know how much local issues factor into AK statewide elections, but here's something on Alyse Galvin who managed to get closer to unseating Young in 2018 than any prior candidate.

Montana

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 56% and Clinton 36%
Senate – none.
Governor – Bullock (inc D) 50.3% and Gianforte 46.4%
House - Zinke (inc R) 56.2% and Juneau 40.5%

2017

House – special – Gianforte 49.9% (R) and Quist 44.4%

2018

Senate - Tester (inc D) 50% and Rosendale 47%
House – Gianforte 50.9% inc R) and Williams 46.2%

2020 election polling:

President – Trump 49 to 56% and Biden 42 to 43%
Senate – Daines 48.3% (inc R) Bullock 45.0% (RCP average)
Governor - Gianforte 48.3% and Cooney 40.7% (RCP average)
House - Rosendale 41% and Williams 44% (only one poll)

The governor's race is sad because Gianforte is a creep. Bullock may have made a mistake by first running for POTUS and only after dropping out, entering the Senate race. (He doesn't have the same sort of quirky charisma as Schweitzer who could have been a contender but had no interest in the job.) Cooney is Bullock's Lt. Governor.

Except for the one-term (2001-2005) Republican Governor, Judy Martz, women don't fare well in Montana statewide elections. So, that makes it an uphill struggle for Williams. OTOH, a clean sweep for Republicans hasn't happened recently. This year that one could be Williams.

2. Something “blue”

New Hampshire

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 46.61% and Clinton 46.98%
Senate – Ayotte 47.8% (inc R) and Hassan 48.0%

2020 polling

President – Trump 42.4%% and Biden 53.4% (RCP average)
Senate – Messner 36-41% and Shaheen 51-56% (inc D)

In 2016 Trump never stopped working NH and for months after the election, he vocalized his anger at not carrying it. Not giving it much attention this time. This is the first easy Senate race for Sheheen.

Maine

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 45% and Clinton 48%
CD1 – Trump 39% and Clinton 54%
CD2 – Trump 51% and Clinton 41%
Senate - none

2018
Senate – Brakey 35%, King 54% (inc I), and Ringelstein 10% (D) 52.0%

2020 polling

President – Trump 40%% and Biden 51% (RCP average)
CD2 - Trump 45.0% and Biden 45.3% (RCP average)
Senate – Collins 40-44% (inc R) and Gideon 44-49% (there's a Q outlier at 54%)

Minnesota

2016 election outcomes:

President - Trump 45% and Clinton 46%
Senate - none

2018

Senate – Newberger 36% and Klobuchar 60% (inc D)

2020 polling

President – Trump 40 to 44% and Biden 47 to 53% (Oct polls)
Senate – Lewis 37 to 44% and Smith 44 to 48% (inc D)

A note on MN – it is being lightly polled and by 2nd tier pollsters. However, the Republican in the Senate race lost his 2018 House reelection after one term in Congress; a bit of a stretch for a comeback in a mid-sized or large state.

On SARS-CoV2, Cases/M, FL is #6, MT is #29, MN is #33, AK is #42, NH is #49, and ME is #50. Deaths/M, FL is #11, MN is #30, NH is #35, MT is #43, ME #48, and AK #50 . (Case fatality rate: NH 4.7%, ME 2.4%, FL 2.1%, MN 1.8%, MT 1.1% and AK 0.6%.) May figure less in these states than in some others. (FL is somewhat immune to rational considerations.) The high CFR in NH and ME resulted from being hit early.

Okay, NH won't be a nailbiter as it was in 2016. ME remains blue and CD 2 may flip, but for now am leaving it in the Trump column. FL leans red. MN scares me and I don't know why, but enough for me to provisionally move it into the undecided column along with PA and WI. The EC count would then be 249 to 249. In the next few days, what will shift MN, PA, and WI more decisively one way or the other? Could something similar kick in in IA, NC, and FL?

There's a debate scheduled for tonight isn't there? Expect Trump to come out swinging a Hunter bat and given a weapon, he doesn't stop swinging it until his opponent is at least bloodied or his opponent somehow manages to seize the bat and land a hit. If Biden has nothing up his sleeve and continues with "it's illegitimate," he will discredit himself in the eyes of many people and what may include voters yet to make their final decision.

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There are three or four separate issues in play:

1) Publishing stolen personal/private embarrassing photos.
2) Mr. Repairman's story.
3) Content of the emails
4) Facebook /Twitter censorship

I'm always uncomfortable with the prurient in interests of people. Didn't read the Ken Starr report, but I'm not a consumer of porn in any form. I also don't get why people are such exhibitionists that they put embarrassing photos/videos on their e-devices. Don't they get that they aren't secure?

Mr. Repairman's story is hinky. First he admits to having opened the files, made copies, and then gave a copy to Guiliani or his rep. Not a hack, but … These are not government or public official secret files that it's in the interest of the public to see. Why would he have been so fearful for his life that he informed the FBI of an unclaimed laptop?

So far, there's no evidence of a crime. They're about as interesting as the Trump-Moscow hotel MOA (which unfortunately Democrats tried to turn into a big deal). On Burisma, tt doesn't change or advance what was already in the public domain. One can choose to believe or not believe that Joe Biden didn't help Hunter on his influence peddling. The Bidens aren't all that bright; so, I could go either way. Influence peddling is a core component of what ordinary people view as corruption. The fact that it goes on all the time is what makes it so difficult to tackle corruption. (Was Chelsea Clinton's NBC sinecure not also corruption?) The NYC AG pass on indicting Ivanka is another instance of corruption.

Facebook/Twitter believe they are so powerful that elections can be flipped by whatever they allow to appear on their platforms. The seeds of this belief were the silly claims that the 2016 election was decided by ads that nobody saw. There's so much garbage on the internet that selective gatekeeping is an impossible task. Lies fly fast in furious in all adverts. Politicians lie all the time; it's part of their job; although Trump has taken it to new heights. But perhaps that's just because Bush/Cheney didn't have a Twitter machine. There's a report out that half of Republicans believe that the Democratic Party operates a pedophile ring. At one time people like that were described as gullible; stupid or insane seems more apt to me. No society can protect such people from those that traffic in false claims for malicious intent. Duping consumers is much too American to go after the malefactors, the whole damn lot of them, including all those that trafficked in the great WMD and Russian/Putin hoaxes.

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snoopydawg's picture

@Marie @Marie

his dad's coattails to get rich in positions he wasn't qualified for starting with working with MBNA while they were getting dad to pass the bankruptcy bill and then going from there to be on the same corporations that had business with his dad. Here is is all laid out for full exposure.

The Complete History Of Hunter Biden's Crony-Connected Jobs

Hunter Biden profited from his father’s political connections long before he struck questionable deals in countries where Joe Biden was undertaking diplomatic missions as vice president. In fact, virtually all the jobs listed on his resume going back to his first position out of college, which paid a six-figure salary, came courtesy of the former six-term senator’s donors, lobbyists and allies,

You can poo poo where it was published and by who, but it doesn't take away from what jobs Hunter got. Of course he is not alone. There is the Feinstein/Blum duo that has gotten rich off of government contracts. Pelosi and her hubby have done the same as has Mitch McConnell and his wife Elaine Chow who is current secretary of transportation with her family backing her actions and getting rich.

What bothers me is the amount of corruption in government. With the pay to play being semi legal, you know what Hillary did with her foundation while she was secretary of state that was definetly pay to play with foreign governments donating millions while they had business before the state department. Clinton Cash documented that quite well.

So yeah if Hunter being exposed put some damn light on this issue I am in favor of it. Yes it is sad that Hunter has a drug problem that keeps getting the better of him. But going from being outed from the navy for cocaine use into a high paying lobbyist job that his dad was involved in stinks to high heaven. Especially since Biden wrote the damn crime bill that has ruined so many people's lives who weren't rich or connected, but Hunter got off. Yes the drug war has failed and should be dumped, but it doesn't change the facts of the 2 justice systems in the country. BTW the Oxycontin lords only have to pay $8 billion for killing hundreds of thousands and not one of them will go to prison for lying to the country about how addictive their drug was. Nice.

ETA to add link to the sweet deal the Sackler family got for killing millions.

The Trump Justice Department announced Wednesday that Purdue Pharma—the notorious maker of OxyContin—has agreed to plead guilty to criminal charges for its role in the opioid epidemic and pay $8.3 billion in penalties, punishments that critics panned as too late and far too little to match the scale of the corporation's deadly and "evil scheme to push addictive drugs for profit."

Under a separate civil settlement, the DOJ said members of the ultra-wealthy Sackler family—the owners of Purdue Pharma—will pay $225 million in civil penalties for their role in a company program under which "representatives intensified their marketing of OxyContin to extreme, high-volume prescribers who were already writing '25 times as many OxyContin scripts' as their peers, causing healthcare providers to prescribe opioids for uses that were unsafe, ineffective, and medically unnecessary, and that often led to abuse and diversion.

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“Restoring the soul of this nation” is just MAGA with more words

Twitter is like a game of telephone

@snoopydawg stuff. But is was tabloid type publishing that didn't simply publish the emails and let them speak for themselves. People that get roped in by seemingly salacious images are suckers for all forms of propaganda.

Being objective requires that one use a consistent set of baselines. I loathe Biden, but I'm not about to apply different standards to him and Democrats than I apply to Trump and Republicans. As the Trump-Moscow MOA was IMO a nothingburger, then so too is Hunter's China deal which as far as we know wasn't consummated.

Trump attempted to play a similar game with the new President of Ukraine as Biden did with the prior one. But that's how power works (that's what created the "Coalition of the Willing") and only a fool would deny that. (Not that I wouldn't welcome a prohibition of funding, etc. external regime change by any country in the world.) Neither as far as we know fall directly within the category of corruption even if there was the possibility of a beneficiary. Would it change your view if it was Nuland and not Hunter that asked Biden to demand the firing of Shokin?

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snoopydawg's picture

@Marie

Would it change your view if it was Nuland and not Hunter that asked Biden to demand the firing of Shokin?

Is there proof that Hunter asked his dad that? This thing started when Biden admitted that he fired Shokin if Ukraine wanted the money. He offered that up free of charge. If Shokin was going to investigate Burisma because of the corruption, then Biden stopping it should piss everyone off. There is lots of info that showed how some Biden and dems and repubs were playing fast and loose with the money going into Ukraine and arms deals coming out of there. Schiff was involved in arms deals and even Pelosi had her hand out for some of the money.

My point is that the government allows all this corruption at the expense of the wee folks who have no voice.

People that get roped in by seemingly salacious images are suckers for all forms of propaganda.

The only picture I've seen is the one of him in the tub with a supposed crack pipe. I didn't form any opinion from it, but from what I have read about his being in and out of rehab. I don't care about if he has a drug problem, but I do care about his dad's crime bill that has hurt the poor/minority while letting rich/connected people get off because of the double standard. Did you read Hunter's history of grifting off his dad's position? This was my point. He is not the only one who has done that. Bribery has been legalized through lobbying, but it's still bribery. You do something in exchange of money it's bribery in my book. But it's not anything new.

This comment sums it up:

A society and governmental structure that doesn’t almost ever hold the actual people that conceived, perpetrated, were accessories-to, or any involved in the crimes accountability is one so depraved and slave to "corporate “personhood” and other such capitalist rot they all ace “get out of jail free” cards and our BS criminal “justice” system is corrupt to the extreme!

Emphyrio

Where the source posted the article wasn't directed at you, but the ones here who do poo poo where info comes from. If I think it's valid and can be backed up by other sources I have no problem using right wing sources which I believe Paul Sperry is.

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“Restoring the soul of this nation” is just MAGA with more words

Twitter is like a game of telephone

Roy Blakeley's picture

@snoopydawg Joe didn't admit that he had Shokin fired. He bragged that he had him fired.

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ggersh's picture

@snoopydawg @snoopydawg while the victims families share the minuscule $8.3bil, that would definitely seem more fair to me. In addition the Sackler family should not only go to jail but also forfeit all profits made from selling their shit!

EDIT:spelling

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snoopydawg's picture

@ggersh

And someone from the Sackler family should be charged for what they did to get doctors to prescribe the drug. Especially after it came out how addictive the drug was. The FDA should have yanked it off the market like they finally did Vioxx that was giving people heart attacks. Well they pulled it just long enough to stick a black label on the package. Instead they are letting them go through bankruptcy after they protected many billions from being included.

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“Restoring the soul of this nation” is just MAGA with more words

Twitter is like a game of telephone

@Marie

is already more than just that as others with knowledge of Hunter's business deals - specifically several of his former business associates are coming forth with information, including former partner Bevan Cooney who has provided 26,000 e-mails to the feds and former partner in a China deal, Tony Bobulinski who held a press conference the other day in which he announced he would be providing information to the Senate Homeland Security Committee and to the FBI and stated flatly that he had met with Biden Sr. and Hunter where Hunter's China business plans were discussed - directly contradicting Joe Biden's multiple denials of having had discussions with or knowledge of Hunter's overseas business deals.

To your other points:

There are three or four separate issues in play:

1) Publishing stolen personal/private embarrassing photos.
2) Mr. Repairman's story.
3) Content of the emails
4) Facebook /Twitter censorship

Regarding #1, you have asserted before, been challenged to prove - and have yet to do so - that anything here was "stolen". Again, can you give any evidence at all to support this claim? Under Delaware law and under the agreement that was signed when the computer was dropped off, after 90 days, if not paid for and/or unclaimed, it became property of the shop.

And while the pictures and videos may well have been personal and embarrassing if disclosed, a number of people who have now viewed them state flatly that they contain child pornography - which, if a law officer, prosecutor or medical professional were to discover, would be a crime *not* to report.

Regarding your #2 - the shop owner's account - I fail to see "hinky". The guy is legally blind, so could not confirm that the person who dropped off the computers - claiming to be Hunter Biden - in fact was. He contacted the FBI through an intermediary in September, 2019, they came and made copies in November, 2019 - leaving the hardware - then confiscated that in December, 2019 after which he ceased hearing from them. The documentation subpoenaing the hardware was signed by an FBI agent known for work on child pornography although the coding on the form suggests that it was related to some type of previously opened money laundering case. timeline

Mr. Repairman's story is hinky. First he admits to having opened the files, made copies, and then gave a copy to Guiliani or his rep. Not a hack, but … These are not government or public official secret files that it's in the interest of the public to see. Why would he have been so fearful for his life that he informed the FBI of an unclaimed laptop?

See above - you neglect to mention that he alerted the FBI *well* before going to Giuliani - as was completely appropriate in a situation where he believed he had come across evidence of serious criminal wrong doing. If these files reveal criminal activity or that Joe Biden was conducting government business to support his family's business interests then it is very much in the public interest that they be seen.

After hearing nothing for months from the FBI, Mac Isaac (the Mac Shop guy) claims to have approached several members of congress, with no response, and only after that contacted Giuliani's lawyer - bear in mind that this was during the height of the impeachment circus and the FBI was sitting on and failing to disclose material that would likely have been exculpatory for Trump...

The contents of the hard drive as well as what happened when the FBI got the material were disclosed in some detail back in September on a Chinese-language Internet program, which specifically claimed Biden supporters within the FBI sat on/slow-walked the information to keep it hushed up. They also described the HD as containing content showing Hunter roughly or violently sexually abusing (very) young Chinese girls. Not being in English this went under the radar until after the NY Post's articles started coming out. But can be viewed here (program from Sept. 24 w/ English subtitles)

Re: #3

So far, there's no evidence of a crime. They're about as interesting as the Trump-Moscow hotel MOA (which unfortunately Democrats tried to turn into a big deal). On Burisma, tt doesn't change or advance what was already in the public domain. One can choose to believe or not believe that Joe Biden didn't help Hunter on his influence peddling.

There may well be evidence of numerous crimes, but it's not like the NY Post can just show us what they claim are child porn so we can decide for ourselves.

On the business dealings, and Burisma in particular, if the main suggestion of the initial story - that Biden, Sr. did meet with Burisma representatives is true, it would certainly undermine Joe's claims to know nothing about Hunter's Ukraine business.

Thing is, people deserve to have some assurance that this stuff will be properly investigated - and there is about zero percent chance of that happening under a Harris-Biden administration. Not much chance of anything happening under a Trump administration either unless he cans some of the people like Wray, Haspel and Barr who are appear to be outright obstructing his attempts to root out the Deep State types and restore accountability.

One other point: if there had been any substance to the claims of the Steele dossier, there would have been legitimate concerns about Trump being compromised and a security risk.

Now, there is actually EVIDENCE that Joe is compromised by foreign powers - most importantly
China - and that makes him a huge security risk. Of course, that is of zero interest to the MSM, but it should be of major concern to us.

PLUS - with US intelligence agencies also in possession of reams of compromising material about the Biden family enterprises... they are protected from any prospect of him getting out of line and doing anything that would threaten their activities and get to continue unimpeded with their sleaze and illegality. Would be like J. Edgar Hoover all over again on steroids.

'Nice little Presidency you've got there, Joe - be a shame if something was to happen to it...'

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snoopydawg's picture

@Blue Republic

Biden supporters within the FBI sat on/slow-walked the information to keep it hushed up.

Shades of the FBI/Comey/Strozk covering up the fact that Hillary's emails were found on Anthony Weiner's laptop that may have had child porn on them. That is what a few agents in the NYC FBI office said they found on it. But even if the emails were on the up and up it was still a huge problem for Her that they were on his laptop period. That after she was told to turn over her emails from her 4 years as SOS she instead deleted them and got away with them and yet got away with it only to find them going back to 2006 on his laptop should have been a huge story. Instead Comey/Strzok did nothing until people told Comey that they would leak them if he didn't do something. This was why he was forced to write the letter to congress saying that he had found 'some of her emails...'. After still not doing anything I wish the agents had leaked them. Gee I wonder if any of them pertained to Epstein. Maybe we'll find out with the Maxwell depo being released?

As to this:

it would certainly undermine Joe's claims to know nothing about Hunter's Ukraine business.

A few articles were written by prominent news orgs that discussed Biden and Hunter's positions while it was happening. People are trying to rewrite history.

THIS:

PLUS - with US intelligence agencies also in possession of reams of compromising material about the Biden family enterprises... they are protected from any prospect of him getting out of line and doing anything that would threaten their activities and get to continue unimpeded with their sleaze and illegality. Would be like J. Edgar Hoover all over again on steroids.

With the FBI twice sitting on damaging information about 2 D presidential candidates they are interfering with the election. Again. As I have stated this problem is not unique to the Biden's and Clintons. It is all through the government with spouses and other relatives branching off into infinity. It's corruption on a scale I don't think anyone could unravel.

compromising material about.....

Exactly.

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“Restoring the soul of this nation” is just MAGA with more words

Twitter is like a game of telephone

@snoopydawg this issue based on the facts available at this time. (And by facts, I don't accept claims by those with an ax to grind or it's no implausible to speculate that they could be paid off to make false claims.) Speculations and guesses, always a component of issues with limited solid facts, are best kept close to what's known and not wild-ass, etc. On that:

Biden supporters within the FBI sat on/slow-walked the information to keep it hushed up.

GMAFB -- It's now the Trump DOJ in case you haven't noticed. Further, I'm quite weary of people that see child porn and child sex trafficking everywhere and particularly among Democrats and pizza parlors. That propensity diminishes a real and horrendous issue. One that's difficult enough for law enforcement to tackle, but not impossible if they have to waste time on fictitious wild goose chases. Highly implausible that if there were child porn on Hunter's laptop that he wouldn't have been arrested within a couple of months.

Finally, this is off topic which makes me grumpy; so, suggest you pull it forward to an essay covering this issue.

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Deja's picture

@Marie
Snicker

Finally, this is off topic which makes me grumpy; so, suggest you pull it forward to an essay covering this issue.

The very first comment in your essay is by you regarding Hunter's laptop. Yet, when it generated responses you didn't like, you ignored Blue Republic and claimed Snoop's was off topic. Then you told her to write an essay about it.

Wow lmfao! Mmkay then.

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@Deja in the essay. Only added it in a comment to avoid carping about not having included it and not factoring it in as a major election game changer as the election polling and projections is the topic of the essay. Should have been more clear that I don't care about Hunter's laptop, am uninterested in discussing it, and it doesn't change anything already known about the two candidates.

In honesty I can barely bring myself to skim the long comments about Hunter's laptop.

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@Marie

Should have been more clear that I don't care about Hunter's laptop, am uninterested in discussing it

enough to *twice* refer to the materials having been "stolen" (in this and comments to another essay).

If you can't or won't back up such claims you might wish to consider the appropriateness of making them in the first place.

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snoopydawg's picture

@Marie

I'm quite weary of people that see child porn and child sex trafficking everywhere and particularly among Democrats and pizza parlors.

Are you saying that I have been writing about Hillary/DNC trafficking kids through pizza parlors? Or someone else here? If so you will have to link to those comments. Is child sex trafficking a problem here? Yes it is as Whitney Webb and others have written that I and other have covered here. What do you think the Epstein saga is about?

Finally, this is off topic which makes me grumpy; so, suggest you pull it forward to an essay covering this issue.

You introduced the topic yourself here so I don't know why you're now saying it's off topic and you don't want to talk about it. I have already written about this in an essay and in comments and I would think that my view on this is plain to see. This is a big deal because it exposes the corruption that is rampant through government and it should be addressed.

It's now the Trump DOJ in case you haven't noticed

Gee thanks for pointing that out or I'd have missed it. I didn't write that BTW.

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“Restoring the soul of this nation” is just MAGA with more words

Twitter is like a game of telephone

@Marie

for the last few years the "Trump DOJ" or "Trump CIA" is about as meaningful as the "Carter CIA" or the "Kennedy FBI" - Carter never really got control of the CIA, which was determined to resist his efforts to reform it and Kennedy had even less success with the FBI despite RFK being Attorney General.

The FBI/DOJ/CIA/ are full of Deep State neo-lib, neo-con, never-Trump types who have constantly worked to thwart Trump. He has only recently been making some headway with his appointments of Ric Grennell and now Ratcliffe as DNI.

Speculations and guesses, always a component of issues with limited solid facts, are best kept close to what's known and not wild-ass, etc. On that:

"Biden supporters within the FBI sat on/slow-walked the information to keep it hushed up."

GMAFB -- It's now the Trump DOJ in case you haven't noticed.

The "Biden supporters.." bit was not something I was asserting as fact, but a description of what was stated in the September Chinese video linked to - weeks before the initial NY Post article.

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remains fascinating.

On the Hunter Biden story, it landed with a thud when the NY Post published it without a reporters byline. The Post is a Rupert rag.

IDK if the accusations have merit or don't but either way this is a nothingburger as far as the election goes.

Also landing with a thud was the Propagandist John Ratecliff's gobbledy-gook that attempted to grab media attention away from #44 at his drive-in Rally. The FBI's Chris Wray looked like he was forced into a hostage video and exited asap. Iran and Russia hadn't done anything yesterday they haven't been doing for quite some time.

The appearance was an attempt to give the media something other than Spreading Covid and Obama for Biden to focus on.

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NYCVG

@NYCVG Rabid partisans never seem to get why end of campaign cycle "bombshells" fall flat. Perhaps LBJ understood that and that's why he didn't disclose Nixon's thwarting of the Paris Peace Talks.

Voters are naturally suspicious of such bombshells. Particularly when the persons or organizations releasing them are easily linked to a partisan agenda. Thus, I conclude that the Access Hollywood tape had no effect; nobody that had not previously decided that Trump is loathsome was going to be persuaded by another example. The Weiner laptop emails fall into a slightly different category because Comey had a mixed record on Clinton and had he not cleared it a few days before the election, it could have changed the decision of some voters because that would be taken as proof that Clinton had lied about turning in all her emails. (Doubt that Comey wanted to touch this at all, but his choice was limited to controlling it or letting the NYC FBI go rogue.)

An effective end of campaign bombshell would be simple, irrefutable, not controlled by a campaign or campaign supporter, and there was no way to release it earlier. The Hunter laptop matter meets none of those criteria. The only thing that could have legs is the Facebook/Twitter censorship, but that's more likely to anger their customers than change voting decisions.

Still Joe will have to do better than "illegitimate" when Trump begins hammering him on this point. "Personal laptop, private communications, and business considerations among private citizens, something President Trump is all too familiar with and why he hasn't even released his tax returns. Also, these files were stolen over a year ago."

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So, what are Joe's choices? 1) Whataboutism---"Your kids are worse than my kids." very weak.

2) A Reaganesque, "There you go again. Lying as you always do" better.

3) The always reliable "What Americans care about is how I can gain control of the Virus and get us back to work." Or some sidestepping pivot to topics viewers might find of interest.

I like your pivot to tax returns and the taxes Trump did or didn't pay--- to China, almost $200,000 as opposed to $750 to USA.

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NYCVG

@NYCVG end of campaign bombshells generally come from the losing candidate's side, and voters do have a nose for a loser's desperate ploy. And Americans don't like losers. (A reason why Trump uses that word so often to characterize others.)

Here's an idea -- "Harping on my son's business dealings is what a loser does."

On masks - "Yeah, I wear a mask so that I don't infect my wife, children, and grandchildren. That's what responsible adults do during a pandemic."

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8 users have voted.

@Marie get 5 stars.

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6 users have voted.

NYCVG

The Liberal Moonbat's picture

"FL only goes blue when it doesn't matter."

It went blue for the most consequential election of my lifetime - it just wasn't allowed to remain that way.

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6 users have voted.

In the Land of the Blind, the one-eyed man is declared insane when he speaks of colors.

@The Liberal Moonbat You're right -- it only went blue once when it mattered. But the US SC overruled the plurality in FL. And look at the promotions that John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and potentially Amy Barrett got for getting their asses down to FL to help thwart counting the votes.

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6 users have voted.