Biden is losing the black vote
Granted, all of these polls are from right-leaning sources, but they are legit pollsters.
First of all, blacks are less than impressed with Biden's VP pick.
Democrats overwhelmingly like the California senator and have their eye on her to hold the top spot in 2024 if the Democratic ticket loses this time around, but a third of black voters say the announcement makes them less likely to throw their support behind the Democratic ticket despite their more favorable view of her.
I don't recall any Republican getting this level of support from the AA community. (since Reagan?)
President Trump's support among black voters rose 9 percentage points amid the Republican National Convention, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds.Twenty-four percent of registered black voters in the Aug. 22-25 survey, which included the first two days of the convention, said they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 76 percent said they disapprove.
That is up 9 points from the previous survey conducted Aug. 8-11, where the President received 15 percent support among this group.
Polls in 2019 and 2018 tell a similar story.
Among Black Voters:
Biden 66% (-23 vs 2016 results)
Trump 28% (+20)Among Hispanic Voters:
Biden 56% (-10)
Trump 41% (+13) https://t.co/4JdE2Sp3GY— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 1, 2020
Think about that for a moment.
The guy who is supposed to be the most racist president since Nixon, is getting in the neighborhood of more than a quarter of the black vote.
There are several possible take-aways, but one that doesn't work is any IdPol.
Comments
I threw up in my mouth at the very first sentence
Listening to her complaints about Trump
I want to tell if she and the media didn’t cover every damn thing about him she wouldn’t have had to go on her rant. Good grief she’s still yapping about his outrages as I’m writing this. Yapping still....Still yapping. Turned the volume down. Stop focusing on him.
I see lots of tweets from blacks saying that they are fed up with democrats taking their votes for granted and not getting anything in return for them. Brie and Nina have been saying this too. Just how dumb is that democrats ran with Mr. Crime Bill and California’s top cop who both made black lives difficult? Punishment for crimes is much worse for blacks and here’s two people who did it to them. Why reward them for it?
Russia is spreading lies about Biden's mental decline
There you have it.
If you believe Biden is going senile, it's because of Russia!
Biden's dementia is now a state secret
The clip was really funny for the play acting seriousness and how the correspondent puffs out his checks at the end.
Biden is not going senile.
He just stutters while sundowning.
I call it elder abuse.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
The Democrats are facing another turn-out problem.
The Democratic Party leaders remained true to themselves. They've followed policies that they believe in. They've been transparent about what they stand for. Even their deceptions are fairly transparent, and their failures (The Mueller Report and the Impeachment, for example) are there for anyone to see. They've even been truthful about the human rights they will be denying the people if their candidate wins.
The Republicans also offer the People nothing worth voting for.
Blacks have good reasons for voting for Democrats, and better reasons for voting against Republicans.
But it's hard to see many people showing up to vote for one of the mental defectives being offered by the Oligarch's Duopoly.
He's lost the Bollox vote...
(SE Cupp?.. shudder)
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
I suggest the following voting procedure ...
Get your ballot. Make sure the ballot has the candidate Nobody on it. Go into your voting boot. Take a penny. Flip the penny in the air. Let the penny fall on the ballot. Whereever the penny ends up falling upon the offered candidate's name, that's the one you must vote for. Totally fair voting process worth your penny. Make a copy of your ballot. Keep the original, hand in the copy and go home to take a nap, then get a beer, then a steak or a scared bunny, roast it well. Eat. Take a nap. Repeat.
My prediction. Nobody will win.
Sigh, I am tired, I'll take a nap. I just woke up. It's not necessary to be woke. 0.02 cents of mine is less than a penny. I am frugal.
Good Morning from Germany.
https://www.euronews.com/live
Kamala didn't win
a single primary or delegate vote.
How could the DNC candidate selection committee think she was going to get anybody's enthusiasm?
This problem is larger than any segment of the voting public.
NYCVG
To be fair, Harris dropped out before
she could have earned any delegates.
Before she began to slip and fade, there were a couple of polls that included demographics. Her strongest support group was AA women. Less than half as many AA men supported her. Not sure why AAs would feel much affinity for a first generation Indian/Jamaican.
Kamala Harris, like Joe Biden --
is there for one, and only one, purpose: to discipline the Left.
Can any of you find another explanation for all of this "Trump is a Fascist" rhetoric besides an inability to distinguish real life from television? It's there to get the Left to worry about another Trump term. Nobody else is worrying.
The ruling classes need an extra party to make the rest of us feel as if we participate in democracy. That's what the Democrats are for. They make the US more durable than the Soviet Union was.
Shouldn't be too surprising
For over four years, Trump has been going on about Democrats take AA voters for granted and never deliver anything to them. And Democratic politicians have failed to respond to the charge.
2008 - AA vote 13%; Obama 95% McCain 4%
2012 - AA vote 13%; Obama 93% Romney 6%
2016 - AA vote 12%; Clinton 89% Trump 8%
projection for 2020? Simplistic trend:
AA vote 11%; Biden 86% Trump 10%
The vote percentage for Hispanics and Asians increased in 2012 and 2016, and both preferred the Democratic nominee over the Republican. With these two groups Obama performed better in 2012 and Romney performed the worst, but Trump was only a point higher than Romney.
PSA : saw this on Twitter -
Those of us who are NOT Black, we need to use "Black people" instead of "Blacks".
Saw similar thing from Transgender people. Use "Transgender people/persons" instead of "Transgenders".
i don't think blacks are so fragile
All of this language policing reeks of white liberals
@gjohnsit I get what you say
I get what you say about white liberal tokenist virtue signaling. But this actually came from Black & Transgender people themselves. This is because of historic/ongoing baggage.
The ongoing baggage I sympathize
The historic baggage I'm more dubious of.
The average American's historical knowledge is mostly composed of half-remembered stuff from high school plus Hollyood movies and facebook memes.
But but but electability.....
Jimmy Dore segment reg the NYT postmortem article on Wisconsin 2016. HRC lost Black voters bigly in Milwaukee
https://youtu.be/2IEEyH3_QmM?t=1369
Votes not cast
Votes not cast are votes lost.
I believe that a lot of younger voters and voters of color will not be voting in the Presidential race. Many of those are the voters that the Democratic party has taken for granted for far too long. While I do not fit into either of those two categories, I am in another group of voters that the Dems have taken for granted because "where else will I go?" I have news for them, I will not be voting for Joe Biden. And of course I will not be voting for Trump.
One of the things I have been watching in this race is the enthusiasm gap between those who have said they will be voting for Biden and those who are voting for Trump. Biden voters are very UNenthusiastic about having to vote for him. If the Democratic party and the Biden campaign continue down their current uninspiring path, many of those unenthusiastic supporters could become votes lost.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Moore may be right about enthusiasm gap.
Seems right to me. Michael Moore's main argument for Trump is that he has an base that will do anything to go out to vote for him.
Maybe a telling point. People forget that Portland saw riots after Trump was elected in 2016. The local rag The Oregonian looked into the background of those arrested by the cops and found that the majority of them had not voted.
That was a clue in the 2016 election
Despite all the hype about women being highly enthusiastic to vote for a woman, the post election numbers didn't reveal that as true.
Trump's well attended and raucous rallies was/is raw data indicative of some level of enthusiasm. Trump always exploits that to claim far more enthusiasm and support than the data reveals. OTOH, HRC dismissed that in both 2008 and 2016 as Obama and then Sanders followed by Trump drew larger crowds than she did. She and Biden relied on the party stalwarts to get out the vote among the party faithful. Though frayed and tattered it did work for both the 2016 and 2020 nomination.
Trump's noisy base may be equivalent to Biden's quietly resolute base. If so, public displays of 'enthusiasm' may not be as much of a guide to this election as it was in 2016.
My final transgression
that got me kicked off DK was posting to the effect that Trump had actual black supporters that were not dupes or paid shills (this was pre-2016 election).
In the event, Trump got 8 or 9% of AA vote.
Someone stated that blacks have no reason to vote for Trump, yet black people have been among the demographic most affected by bad trade deals and illegal immigration and a growing number see Trump as more supportive of their interests there.
There appears to be growing scepticism also of BLM and concern about the violence and destruction associated with their activities and calls to defund police. Democrats are properly viewed as owning these. Over 50% of the recent 2 million new gun owners are said to be black and it takes little imagination to conclude that they will not rush to support Biden/Harris who are rabidly anti-gun even by current Democratic "standards".
Don't have the links just now, but was reading the other day that the Trump campaign figures that if he reaches 14% black support it pretty much assures a win - and had read previously that if he doubles his previous 8% that there is no way Dems win.
Anyone want to hazard a prediction? I'll say over ten percent for sure, more likely twelve percent or more...
(Edit: "...they will *not* rush...")