Despite widespread claims to the contrary, Covid STILL going away

Last week I posted this essay.

The numbers don't lie, Covid-19 is going away, despite the protests, despite states letting people return to work and lessening restrictions.

Despite the Media Hysteric Manufacturers parsing words about how the "rate of new cases" is increasing. Because let's face it, if the rate of testing increases, and it has, then of course the rate of new cases increases.

Needless to say, it was met with some hostility.

"I'm sorry, but this essay is simply misleading."

"It's more than misleading, it's reckless and could kill people."

And, of course, the people who don't understand the math and try to covidsplain it to me.

"Death lags cases by three weeks to a month or more...you're analyzing the data incorrectly."

and finally, flat out science denial.

The CDC is worthless.

Well, good news: The despite the constant barrage of fear mongering, the death rate is STILL going down:

And, as we would expect to see, a week later, the death totals continue to go down across the board.

This is not rocket science people. This is good news.
EDIT: Because people who can't be bothered to click on a link, need a link (wtf?) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Anja Geitz
you don't agree with are off limits? Is that more accurate?

I'm just trying to figure out why you would resort to all kinds of personal nastiness to silence a poster over a mere prediction.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Anja Geitz's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

is “going away” based on data that is not saying the same is being refuted here. I did not say his erroneous insistence was “off limits”. That’s for management to decide if giving incorrect information about a lethal health issue is “off limits”. Not for me to decide. As to your comment about the “Nastiness“? I’m not sure I’d characterize any of my comments that way. But you’re entitled to your opinion.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz
The trend can change, but right now it IS saying that the virus is going away.

Just because you don't like that doesn't give people the right to personally attack me (it's all ad hominem attacks, I get that, because their arguments don't stand on their own merits) and saying it's not what the data says. The data says what it says regardless of what people want it to.

Everyone on this thread have been VERY DKosish. VERY.

Now next week, we may see a spike and I will report what the data SAYS then too.
Because yes, I will be back with it next week. And the week after. And every week until it's gone for good. However long that takes. And we will look at the data and hopefully begin to discuss it like adults. Well, many here have, but the attacks need to stop.

If this triggers some people, then perhaps they should avoid it next week. I'm not backing down. I'm sharing the cdc's numbers each week, whether people like my interpretation or not. And if the virus begins to climb, I'll say that too.

You all can't kill the messenger, so try to be civil please and so will I.

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

I sent your essay to a family friend who ANALYZES this kind of data for a living. He does not agree with your assertion that this data is showing that Covid is going away.

You may publish what you please. But then so can I. So as soon as I see you’ve published another essay asserting this incorrect information, I will publish a competing essay saying exactly what I’ve just told you.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

enhydra lutris's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain
away. The data you are relying upon may or may not be saying something abut the death rate attributed to the virus, but nothing about the incidence of the virus. To determine the rate of change of the incidence of the illness, you have to look and timely data on the incidence, not on untimely information on deaths attributed to it.

Right now, the states are reporting that the virus is spreading, that large numbers of new cases are occurring seemingly, overall nationally, at increasing rates. They are not caused by spontaneous generation. They are not caused by testing, testing does not cause or spread the virus. Unless testing policies in all 50 states have radically changed, the increase in testing is still almost exclusively testing of those with symptoms similar too those of covid-19, the illness precedes the test, not vice versa. That is the flaw in the "it is all because of increased testing" argument and logic. We are still not just going out from door to door testing or testing anybody and everybody who wants to be tested. If we were, then there Might be some merit to it, but that is not the case.

be well and have a good one.

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

Anja Geitz's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

Kinda teed the ball for up for the pillory that ensued?

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Anja Geitz

That comment wasn't the catalyst by any stretch.

Not to mention whatever the author's opinion of his own intelligence, it has nothing to do with the point he makes nor the facts he presents.

So can we please stick to the substance of the essay and leave the personal attacks out of it?

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger
it isn't the best way to win friends and influence people.

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

To refresh your memory of the tone that was set on both sides? Doesn’t exactly jibe with the “victim” profile you’re conveniently conjuring up here now. But like I said in another comment, you’re entitled to your opinion, so ruminate about it all you like. I’m pretty much done with this subject, this OP, and your version of it.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

CS in AZ's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

I didn’t want to talk about myself and my personal experiences, but you ask reasonably nicely, so I will respond.

Did you ever consider that fear for your own personal susceptibility to the virus may be clouding your judgement a bit?

Yes. In the early days of this, I wrote openly here about my personal fears, and stated that I was not objective about it. That was in mid-March. Now, four months later, I am actually not afraid of getting the virus. My husband continues to go to work daily in a shop-office that is owned and run by a hard-core Trumper. They do not wear masks, they do not ask customers to wear masks, they do not practice social distancing, either at work or in their off hours. They believe it is a complete hoax. I was initially very afraid for both of us, but after many a long discussion about the risks of getting sick, even maybe dying from if, we determined these were IFs, while if he quit the job for safety, it would be certain financial destruction of everything we’ve build for 30 years.

So, with a cold and rational risk assessment, we opted to take the potential risk, over the certain loss. I had to adjust my attitude to do this. I won’t say it was easy. But I did it, and moved out of that place of fear.

I have since gotten my hair cut, had an eye exam, gotten a long-overdue pedicure for my painful ingrown toenails, and gotten a massage to help deal with my chronic leg pain. We socialize in person with a few friends, keeping mostly outside even in the heat and adhering to social distancing for the most part, but we are not religious about it. I have one good friend who has a chronic lung condition and she is deathly afraid of getting it. She visits in the backyard only and won’t even enter our house because of my husband’s high-risk job and our somewhat flexible socializing protocols with others who do come inside to hang out. We wear masks to go to public places like the grocery store, as is required now. We are not going out to restaurants, bars, or large venues of any kind, but we do not live in fear.

So the answer to your question is yes, I have considered it, and no, my view is not coming from a place of irrational fear. It is coming from a place of respect for the real dangers of this disease, and even more so, a core belief that truth and honesty do matter.

Now on to the rest of your comment...

The OP simply quoted insults made TO him by others (including you?) and then posted official government data to support his contention that the COVID threat is overblown.

First, no, not “including me” because I declined to comment on the previous one. I took a don’t feed the troll approach and just left it alone. That is, as I said, almost always my first instinct. It was only when he lobbed round 2 that I was annoyed enough to say anything at all, and I tried to keep it light in my first comment while still marking the point that the conclusions drawn were bullshit.

Second, and this is the part that floors me... because it seems to me that you usually are a fairly clear-eyed person who can see what is going on... you are completely misstating what the poster said.

He did not say “the threat is overblown.” What he said is: Despite widespread claims to the contrary, Covid STILL going away

Then he insists that this ridiculous statement is absolutely proven by a CDC chart that is incomplete. He ignores that the CDC, his infallible only source, does not say the disease is going away. They say the opposite. So either the CDC is infallible or it isn’t. If it is, as an “official government source” then we have to accept their own statements that the disease is not going away.

I am very surprised, by the way, to see you of all people saying we should blindly trust an “official government source” — and then also saying we should ignore that same source’s actual statements.

Also he did not “simply repeat insults made to him” — in this post and the previous one, he says that people who do not see things his way are unable to think and are stupid.

“This is not rocket science, people.”
“... people who don't understand the math and try to covidsplain it to me.”
“... despite the constant barrage of fear mongering...”
“Now, before people who need to calm themselves down and quit listening to the MHM reply ...”

That’s just a quick sample from the essays. I didn’t even go to his comments, which are even worse.

And he is pushing a lie. That is the biggest problem:

you can all breath on sigh of relief: The pandemic is ending.

You somehow spin this into he merely said that “the threat is overblown” when clearly that is not what he said. That is not why anyone has objected to his posts.

For this he is pilloried mercilessly and personally by those who are clearly more concerned with feeding their own insecurities than rationally debating the numbers.

He has been pilloried by people who are offended by his lies and insults. “Debating the numbers” from one incomplete chart based on incomplete data, is a complete red herring. And your perceptions of the motives of those who push back is based on nothing but your assumptions.

Nut house is right - but not because of the essay.

I disagree, obviously, that pushing back on outright lies makes this place a nut house. If he cannot stand the heat, maybe this isn’t the place for him. You on the other hand, NHK, are usually more reasonable than this. I’m wondering if your need to believe it is magically going away might be coming from your own fears?

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@CS in AZ

with many of the critics here is that you all automatically assume a monopoly on the truth, even though you all also admit we don't actually know the truth. So how does that work?.

I disagree, obviously, that pushing back on outright lies makes this place a nut house. If he cannot stand the heat, maybe this isn’t the place for him.

I'm far more interested in light than heat. Viscous personal attacks and calls for censorship are not 'pushback'. They are transparent efforts to silence people whose opinions you don't agree with and IMO have no place on this blog.

So OK: the guy posted some stats and came to a rationally supported conclusion. And as I stated above, even apenultimate's nasty reply actually bolstered those findings. That's something to take onboard. Thats something to add to the growing list of evidence that what CNN, MSNBC, WP, BBC, NYT are telling us isn't exactly kosher. Big deal.

Yet you all act as if he personally came to your house and infected your cat with COVID.

He did not say “the threat is overblown.” What he said is: Despite widespread claims to the contrary, Covid STILL going away.

Semantics. If COVID is still going away, then the threat is indeed overblown.

You on the other hand, NHK, are usually more reasonable than this. I’m wondering if your need to believe it is magically going away might be coming from your own fears?
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I've pretty sure I already had the disease months ago, which I documented. So perhaps as a survivor I'm less prone to hysterical suggestions of what the disease is and what is isn't?

FYI: My disease last in total about 4-5 months. It sucked at the time but I appear to have gotten over it with no perceivable lingering effects.

On that note, I gotta say that all this careless talk about 'long term effects' is completely irresponsible. We're barely 6-8 months into this thing. How can anyone with a straight face claim they have any evidence of long term side effects when we are still in the short term?

I for one truly don't appreciate people telling me without any legitimate proof that there's a good chance I'm going to suffer long term brain damage, just so they can make a point on a website.

Just saying.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

CS in AZ's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

So it does seem that you are blurring together a lot of different comments and responses into one large group who you have deemed a hysterical mob. What I see is a lot of different people who disagree strongly with the conclusions drawn by this author. Namely, that “we can all breathe a sigh of relief” because the whole pandemic is magically going away.

He says this with ZERO evidence — because the CDC data do not support that conclusion by any stretch. It is not rational for him to say this, it is ridiculous.

Or, as I said before, if you want to accept his premise that declining death rates = disease is magically vanishing, then why not also celebrate the impending demise of cancer? Because the official government data from the CDC and other official government sources clearly show that the overall death rate from cancer is declining. (Oh wait, that is absurd. Right.)

I would just remind you that no one here is “you all” and we do think for ourselves. As you have blurred it all together into what you see as a monolithic mob, I think you’ve lost sight of that. But in general, this poster is posting a false and clearly faulty conclusion, and he is doing it in a haughty, insulting manner. So people have reasons why they react as they do. And it is not because anyone wants to be back on Daily Kos. Which I think you know.

As to the question of long-term effects. Long-term is relative, of course, but what that means is that the initial impression was that once you had it and “recovered” you were safe, but now that some time has passed, they are realizing that other body systems and organs can sometimes have damage that does not go away with the virus. These include diabetes, heart damage, etc. and yes things like heart damage are permanent. This obviously isn’t happening to everyone, but it is happening. Being on a vent for extended periods of time also causes lasting damage. This is well known already.

No one is saying that just to scare you. it is a reminder that writing this disease off as nothing is not right and some people do have lasting complications. If you were not on a vent and have no lasting damage that has been detected, then you were not one of those people, yay!! There is no reason to shut down any mention of it simply because it makes you nervous.

I can only urge you to take a few steps back for some perspective. C99 is nothing like DKos and you know it. No flags, no hidden comments, no organized gangs to shut down unpopular people — just people looking for good discussion and a place to speak relatively freely. That includes letting it be known, perhaps vigorously, that when someone is yanking our chain, we do not appreciate it.

All that being said, I sincerely do perceive that you are typically much more skeptical of BS, and you usually understand that individuals are just that. When you have this many individuals all feeling similarly about something, that is likely a sign that something is amiss other than we all suddenly want to be back on the Kos. I appreciate your voice here and hope you can see that people here are not so awful as you are seeing at this moment.

Best to you amigo.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@CS in AZ

they are realizing that other body systems and organs can sometimes have damage that does not go away with the virus.

What does t take for people to understand that if you're going to post inflammatory claims like this, you really need to post a link.

Otherwise you are committing the same 'zero evidence' sin you so fastidiously use to justify your nasty, out-of-bounds attempts discredit the OP.

That includes letting it be known, perhaps vigorously, that when someone is yanking our chain, we do not appreciate it.

OK then. I am vigorously telling you to stop yanking my chain, which should have been clear the first time I mentioned that I as a COVID survivor did not appreciate people making unsourced claims about long term damage that can't have happened yet.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

CS in AZ's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger @Not Henry Kissinger

Wow, you are really in a tizzy aren’t you? Oh well.

Scientists Uncover Long Term Effects of COVID-19, Virus Attacks Vital Organs

What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19

Report Suggests Some ‘Mildly Symptomatic’ Covid-19 Patients Endure Serious Long-Term Effects

What We Know About the Long-Term Effects of COVID-19

The emerging long-term complications of Covid-19, explained

What are the potential long-term effects of having COVID-19?

Covid-19: Why are people suffering long-term symptoms?

What are the potential long-term effects of having COVID-19?

Britain puts $10 million into study on long term effects of COVID-19

[edit: one broken link fixed.]

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@CS in AZ
that I don't bother to read the sources I post, which is apparently a condition you are suffering from:

From your links:

Advisory Board:

The new coronavirus and the disease it causes are still just months old, meaning researchers have not been able to study the disease's long-term effects on people.

In fact, Parshley reports, researchers are still working to understand the disease's short-term effects and treatment. Currently, it's estimated as few as 5% and as many as 80% of Covid-19-positive patients are asymptomatic or have mild cases of the illness that take days or weeks for symptoms to emerge—and many have no symptoms after two weeks, Parshley reports. A smaller percentage of patients have severe cases of Covid-19, which the World Health Organization estimates can take three to six weeks to fully recover from.

ABC News/Fortune (duplicate):

It's hard to say exactly, because the coronavirus is still so new that scientists don't know much about long-term effects. The best evidence comes from patients themselves, and some experience a variety of symptoms long after their infections have cleared.

Most people recover within a few weeks. For people who experience longer-term effects, the most common issues are bouts of exhaustion, headaches, anxiety and muscle aches that can last for at least several more weeks.

That's 'longer term' (ie a few more weeks), which is far different from 'long term'.

The Guardian article suffers from exactly this lazy conflation:

Weeks and months after having a confirmed or suspected Covid-19 infection, many people are finding they still haven’t fully recovered. Emerging reports describe lingering symptoms ranging from fatigue and brain-fog to breathlessness and tingling toes.

Just because the virus takes a while to get over, doesn't mean you never get over it.

Same problem with the Forbes article:

Nearly 88% of patients reported persistent intense fatigue, while almost three out of four had continued shortness of breath. Other enduring symptoms included, among other things, chest pressure (45% of patients), headache and muscle ache (40% and 36%, respectively), elevated pulse (30%), and dizziness (29%). Perhaps the most startling finding was that 85% of the surveyed patients considered themselves healthy prior to getting Covid-19. One or more months after getting the disease, only 6% consider themselves healthy.

'One or more months' is not 'long term'. And again it takes a while to recover, but the complications do eventually go away.

Healthline: Claims that long term damage may result from treatment protocols (e.g. ventilators causing lung damage) and PTSD from being in the ICU, but those are complications caused by hospitalization itself and could happen to a sufferer of ANY disease, not just COVID.

Same goes for NBC San Diego, where a local doctor says on a local TV station that the virus is scary and MAY have complications for those who were hospitalized. - hardly peer reviewed data or any specific threat to the vast majority of COVID patients and hardly a claim unique to COVID.

From the Vox article:

Because Covid-19 is a new disease, there are no studies about its long-term trajectory for those with more severe symptoms; even the earliest patients to recover in China were only infected a few months ago. But doctors say the novel coronavirus can attach to human cells in many parts of the body and penetrate many major organs, including the heart, kidneys, brain, and even blood vessels.

“The difficulty is sorting out long-term consequences,” says Joseph Brennan, a cardiologist at the Yale School of Medicine. While some patients may fully recover, he and other experts worry others will suffer long-term damage, including lung scarring, heart damage, and neurological and mental health effects.

Finally:

Britain is putting 8.4 million pounds ($10.49 million) into a new study to examine the long-term effects of COVID-19 on patients, the health ministry said on Sunday.

The novel coronavirus which causes COVID-19 has been observed to cause many health impacts for some patients beyond immediate respiratory issues, but with other infected people asymptomatic, the workings of the virus are not fully understood.

So Britain is going to spend money on a study of long term complications that hasn't even started yet. How is that evidence?

I could go on but what's the point? Your own sources make it very plain that any claims of long term damage are not remotely supported by any medical consensus.

Simply put: nobody knows what or whether there are long term complications, so once again I ask you to stop yanking my chain.

N.B. One long term complication I am willing to concede is that people have been known to die as a result of this disease, but apparently many people here for some reason don't consider the rate of that 'complication' very important now it that appears to be diminishing.

Funny that.

I'm also quite surprised by your almost exclusive use of establishment media in supporting your non-case. Ever stop to think where all these scary, misleading articles come from? Or why?

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

CS in AZ's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

I’m not pushing any agenda nor do I have any axe to grind, so I didn’t choose articles that give only a certain perspective. Yes clearly they do say more study is needed; I agree with that. Don’t you?

They also quote numerous health authorities, doctors, researchers, and patients who are saying that long-term effects do happen, and the disease is more complex than originally thought. Which you conveniently ignored, of course. But guilty as charged, I did not screen my very quick search for links to be tailored to any paticular point of view, given that was never my intention.

I said above that ‘they’ (an admittedly general, short-hand term) are learning that there is more to it and some people are experiencing more than a simple lung virus.

You then freaked out and demanded links to prove that this discussion (among media, researchers, doctors, patients, etc.) is in fact taking place, and you accused me of making it up. The links are, as you demanded, simply to show you that this topic is in fact being discussed in the larger world. It’s hardly inflammatory or even controversial to be aware of this fact. That is all, so you can feel free to continue your rabid attacks on me but I don’t see the point.

I find it rather ironic that we started this discussion because you accused me personally of being driven by such irrational fear that it precluded a clear-minded view. And yet now here you are, demanding that this entire sub-topic of longer and wider effects that are being discovered and discussed must not even be mentioned, because apparently it is too scary for you to even contemplate.

I was supposed to be working today, and I already took most of the day to write here instead, so you will have to forgive that I do not have dozens of hours available to carefully curate a list of links you might find acceptable, or if I made an error on one of them. The point stands: this topic of the as-yet not well understood potential complications is ongoing, widely available to anyone who makes the slightest effort to look, and it is not just something I (or anyone else) just made up to frighten you on a personal level. I am not yanking your chain, I gave you what you demanded (even though you could easily look it up yourself) — a number of links to show that this is an emerging, genuine concern that should be looked at, not denied just because you don’t like it.

I for one would never have imagined you were so fragile about it. But then you sure don’t pull any punches or worry about who you may be hurting with your invectives... so there is that. I am tired now, been at this way too long today. I have tried to be civil, honest, and answer you with respectful replies; in return you have ratcheted up your attacks to a ridiculous degree, so I’m going to bow out now. You can have the last words about how terrible I am. Have a nice evening NHK. I hope you feel better soon.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@CS in AZ @CS in AZ @CS in AZ

As to the question of long-term effects. Long-term is relative, of course, but what that means is that the initial impression was that once you had it and “recovered” you were safe, but now that some time has passed, they are realizing that other body systems and organs can sometimes have damage that does not go away with the virus.

without any sourcing whatsoever, and when I called you on it posted a lot of scary non-evidence that doesn't back it up.

Now you back off and say you were just giving me a variety of opinions that all just happen to spout the same scary disinformation.

Give me a break.

I for one would never have imagined you were so fragile about it. But then you sure don’t pull any punches or worry about who you may be hurting with your invectives... so there is that. I am tired now, been at this way too long today. I have tried to be civil, honest, and answer you with respectful replies; in return you have ratcheted up your attacks to a ridiculous degree, so I’m going to bow out now. You can have the last words about how terrible I am. Have a nice evening NHK. I hope you feel better soon.

Not sure where you get the invective bit from, but then again posting factually accurate comments doesn't seem to concern you too much.

And your patronizing digs about my 'fragility' notwithstanding, I feel perfectly fine thanks. Thank you for your concern.

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1 user has voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@enhydra lutris

but there sure as hell is a rather nasty herd mentality shared by a lot of people on this thread.

Like Dkos all over again.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger on DKos this post would be shadow banned and I'd be banned.

This discussion would never even be allowed.

Forbidden speech.

Thank you jtc for giving free speech a haven. Even when it pisses some off.

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@Not Henry Kissinger on DKos this post would be shadow banned and I'd be banned.

This discussion would never even be allowed.

Forbidden speech.

Thank you jtc for giving free speech a haven. Even when it pisses some off.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

I'm talking about the behavior of some posters.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

dystopian's picture

First, I never saw a thread with so many comments and so few upvotes for OP. Weewow! Wink

Second, maybe a user with battle in their name is looking for one?

Third I never met anybody brilliant that needed to say so. Much less repeatedly.

In Texas the data differ from your conclusions. It is getting worse, not better.
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/...

We don't know there will be such a thing as herd immunity yet, so to pursue that goal as if it is proven to be real and exists, is not a very well thought out approach. With the specially approved reduced accuracy rate allowed so anyone could make money selling tests, the unacceptably large rate of false negatives alone might preclude any hope of control.

We are not evolved in American society enough to deal with a pandemic obviously. Everything is seen through politically tainted glasses rendering the viewer half blind, and certain they see the only bestest truth.

P.S. If you are good at something, you don't need to tell anyone.

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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein

Anja Geitz's picture

@dystopian

Third I never met anybody brilliant that needed to say so.

...who typically found others underestimation of them either amusing or incentive for ridicule. But the cringe factor that would be associated with saying they were the smartest person in room would be enough of a deterrent for either one of them from making such a claim out loud, much less on the internet.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

CS in AZ's picture

@dystopian

Absolutely right on, from start to finish.

This is a keeper. Thank you!

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snoopydawg's picture

patients because he has run out of ICU beds. His part starts around 8:30 but the whole segment is good.

And he states unequivocally that if people do not get the treatment they will die.

This is not going away and I am asking you to quit posting this here where you get so much push back from the community and then you double down with the same talking points. This is an open website, but this doesn't seem a hill for you to die on. I am not asking that you get banned, but just for you to take to heart what we are saying.

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@snoopydawg

This is an open website, but this doesn't seem a hill for you to die on. I am not asking that you get banned, but just for you to take to heart what we are saying.

is still a call for censorship. Shame on you.

Sorry, but who made you arbiter of what should be posted here? Especially considering how many half-truths, inflated claims and outright falsehoods I've seen you post on this topic to gin up support for your little bloggers' pogrom against COVID arguments you don't agree with.

Also, 'hill to die on'? Forget the rather tasteless metaphor given the topic, but what does that even mean?

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0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

snoopydawg's picture

if you think I am you have no idea who I am or what I stand for, Maybe you should go back to ignoring my comments. I am going by what has happened to others here that have been banned for going against the grain. I was vehemently against those actions.

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5 users have voted.

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@snoopydawg

Maybe you should go back to ignoring my comments.

when you stop trying to tell other people on this site what they should and should not post.

if you think I am you have no idea who I am or what I stand for,

Yeah well, let me just suggest you may not know yourself as well as you think you do.

EDIT: So you added this:

I am going by what has happened to others here that have been banned for going against the grain.

So you're just doing the author a favor, is that it? Last time I checked, 'going against the grain' was not a bannable offense here.

Maybe in your COVIDmania you've accidentally mistaken this place for TOP?

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0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

snoopydawg's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

Maybe in your COVIDmania you've accidentally mistaken this place for TOP?

You keep accusing others of being insulting and then you post this? Look in a mirror dude.

ETA

Last time I checked, 'going against the grain' was not a bannable offense here.

And yet we have had people banned from the website for doing just that. Did that skip your attention? Seen Alligator Ed around lately? There were others who are not here anymore. Why do you think that is?

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5 users have voted.

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@snoopydawg

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0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@snoopydawg cuz you are all mostly very good people and you will forgive me if I am wrong.

Why I feel it is so important.

This is not a free nation. Deep state forces fueled by white supremacists want to enslave the working class.

Covid is how they are doing this.

In free nations the quarantines do not financially devastate the young.

In America it does.

Stop being so socially irresponsible that your fear of this virus causes you to enable them.

The death rate matters not just because it has been trending down while media hyped it but because it is your excuse under the guise of social responsibility to be socially irresponsible to the future generations.

It shouldn't be this way but it is. It's the America we live in.

Overcome your fear.

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2 users have voted.
ovals49's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain
than the death ratio at predicting the overall trend lines of the pandemic. Aside from CDC data being incomplete and slow to arrive, assuming a lower death ratio is a good thing that indicates a waning of the pandemic is specious. When a larger cohort of the population is tested, even if they are mildly affected, the death ratio will drop simply due to the inclusion of a wider spectrum of the population. Early on only those with severe symptoms were tested, a much higher percentage of whom succumbed, resulting in a higher death ratio than we are seeing now.

The infectivity ratio, the number of people each infected individual ends up infecting, provides a better metric to evaluate the overall trajectory and degree of growth or decline in the pandemic. It is predictive data in that it points toward a future we can expect rather than a past poorly recorded. You can find this data, updated daily, at rt.live

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9 users have voted.

“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

Granma's picture

@snoopydawg handled appropriately in this country. Locking us down without covering lost income to those thrown out of work.... Was and is inexcusable.
I don't think I'm living in fear, but I am being cautious. I do not follow tv media for my information about this virus. I do look to and listen to a few chosen(by me) scientists, specialists in this sort of disease, pandemic.

One of the thing I appreciate the most about scientists regarding Covid is that they follow all the studies regarding treatments, and critically analyze them. And say that because this virus is completely new, there is much more to learn about it than is known at this point. I think that is important.

I'm time short so will leave it at that for now.

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9 users have voted.
snoopydawg's picture

@Granma

Locking us down without covering lost income to those thrown out of work.... Was and is inexcusable.

I don't think I'm living in fear, but I am being cautious.

I’m not living in fear either, but like you I take precautions. It seems that most of the mainstream media’s coverage is just to tell us how badly Trump is doing like one person is responsible for all decisions that happen in this country. He has f’cked up royally, but so have many, many other people. Cuomo gets lots of praise, but he was doing much of the same things Trump was at first. No masks. No shutting down the airports. DeBlasio wanted to do many things to protect NYC, but Cuomo overruled him until a week later he finally did.

Newsom opened California early just like many republican governors did, but the media hasn’t hounded him like they have others.

Inexcusable is one word for what they did. Barbaric is another. 20% of the country cannot pay their rents or mortgages for a few months and that number keeps rising. NYC has 50k evictions on their dockets and that’s just one city. Meanwhile they are on another 2 week break and McConnell and Trump want to let federal unemployment benefits expire this month. Many people have still not received their unemployment benefits. Especially in Florida.

Criminal is another word especially when we are learning who in congress got money from the first CARES act. Betsy DeVos a multiple billionaire took money from it as did Pelosi's husband’s company. She is worth at least $100 million.

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4 users have voted.

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

k9disc's picture

spanish_flu_death_chart.jpg

I, personally do not agree with the hand waving about "dangerous" and such. If someone wants to make a dumb argument that's their right. And it is a dumb argument. Dumb like ignorant, dumb like simple, and dumb like not smart.

The answer to dumb arguments is not banning or shouting them down. It's a better argument or holes poked in the dumb argument that make it sink in it's own merits.

Again, the OP is suggesting that we trust the CDC data and reject the media circus and the CDC circus and statements of fact.

The argument suggests that we accept a trend of a single column of incomplete, rolling death data that is reported by an institution captured by the same corporate sponsors waving the hands of the untrustworthy media as proof that a poorly understood and highly politicized 6 month old novel viral pandemic is "going away".

It is not a smart argument. It is not a data driven argument. It is not a serious argument. It is specious, simple, and ideologically driven. I believe I have seen it in meme form on FB from anti-maskers.

I am no fan of the lockdown. I am not a fan of turning our backs on our people. I am not a fan of over-reaching government. I am also not a fan of dumb, least common denominator rationalizations of hope crusading with a political axe against a nuanced and complex reality.

I don't think SARS CoV 2 is over. We're likely sitting right where the arrow is pointing. And because we know zip about this bug, in particular the neuropathic and neurotropic aspects that are likely to be the symptoms of the "asymptomatic", I am all for taking the virus seriously. I do not accept the argument made in this post as serious. I think it is specious, dumb, and ignorant.

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6 users have voted.

“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Just finished reading this whole comment thread.

First of all this site is NOT like DKos. The author of this diary is still here and so are the commenters who took this author on. It seemed like we veered close to censorship but then veered away again. And that's the way it should be. I found myself looking at all this like a person watching a tennis match... sometimes I saw the author's POV and then I saw the opposition's POV. It's only when the commentary gets personal that we lose the art of debate and all the benefits it can bring. I can tell you from personal experience that I never experienced real censorship in it's raw form like I did at DKos and continue to see practiced on Facebook by DNC followers and people who suffer from Trump derangement issues. I learned never to tell anyone I voted 3rd party if I decide to do that again. Dems are merciless and probably the worse group of people I've ever seen when it comes to shutting down freethought and debate. But I digress....

I pretty much feel that NO ONE really knows what is really going on with this virus or where it is heading, but we better damn well listen to those who work in hospitals when they say they don't have equipment or room to house those coming to them for help. The other day I asked my spouse how in the world they come up with those infection numbers for an area when there are probably millions of people who got sick, stayed at home, got better and never reported it to any authorities. When I go to an area that claims 500 infections, I figured it's probably more like 5000.
So we are all arguing blind... like that metaphor about the blind mice describing what an elephant looks like based upon what they are touching.

I don't worry about this author's ability to affect our opinions to the point that we all take our masks off in the grocery store, so let him/her keep reporting, and we will all keep applying our skepticism and move on.

I just LOVE this site.

Stay well and be happy everyone.

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4 users have voted.

"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin

enhydra lutris's picture

arguing back and forth, without challenging those assumptions, gets nowhere. Examples:

1 The virus will magically up and vanish because Trump says so and he is an infallible stable genius, Everything up through "Trump says so", though exceedingly improbable, cannot be disproved or proved. The assumption is utter bullshit and demonstrably false.

2 Because this is a global pandemic, eventually enough will be infected that herd immunity acquired by the survivors will leave the virus bereft of hosts and it will fade away. This is not subject to disproof or proof on the evidence and knowledge we now have. It does assume that the virus will generate long lived stable immunity, which is not, as of this date, a certainty.

3 This country is on the verge of acquiring sufficient herd immunity, as above, and thus the virus will vanish relatively soon. This is also not currently subject to proof or disproof though it is extremely unlikely. It not only assumes long lived stable acquired immunity but also a vast prior infection rate that went undetected because of poor testing and an exceedingly enormous pool of asymptomatic victims.

4 We are at the thin edge of the wedge. The infection rate will soon start to grow exponentially until almost everybody has become infected and great numbers will die. The more we open up the sooner this will kick in. This too cannot be proved or disproved based on current knowledge. It makes no assumptions about acquired immunity, but does assume that there were not vast hordes of asymptomatic victims, that social distancing has been relatively effective in slowing the spread of the virus, that the initial number of infected persons was low, and that the majority of them were somewhat quickly isolated.

There are other side arguments such as , crassly and unfairly put, the death rate is such that we must be willing to sacrifice those relative few to the economic health and future of today's young. This is basically Triage on a nation or society wide basis. There is a very questionable hidden assumption which is that today's young have, will have or ever can have a decent economic future. It is equally, if not more likely that if we jump start the economy they are all very, very likely to suffer decade after decade of painful grinding serfdom, relative poverty, debt, stress, misery, disease, and open oppression.

be that as it may, it is not relevant to the factual question of whether or not the virus will up and vanish, and if so how soon. That question cannot be definitively answered with complete certainty at the present time.

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2 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

travelerxxx's picture

@enhydra lutris

Excellent, el. Thank-you.

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