Despite the media hysterics, Covid is going away

And it has been since its peak April 18th.

It was back then that I was hearing how the death toll had reached 100,000. I pointed out that the cdc site was reporting far less than that and hysterical people who needed to calm the fuck down were dashing about yelling that the cdc totals aren't all in yet.

Which, of course, begged the question: So where did the media get the 100,000 dead figure.
Well, it's been over two months since that claim and the cdc? At the time the claim was made, a little over 40,000 had died.

Not the 100,000 the MHM (Media Hysterics Manufactuerers) were claiming.

And now? The MHM is claiming that record numbers are testing positive. The narrative is "don't go out and protest", "don't go out and get back to work."

And the cdc?

The death toll has been steadily declining for the ninth straight week. George Floyd protests and right wing states reopening have had ZERO impact.

When I first decided to write this Essay, shortly after the George Floyd protests, I decided to start tracking the weekly updates. Unfortunately, the week ending June 6th I didn't have access to my PC, just my phone and couldn't take a screen shot. So here are the numbers I jotted down on a piece of paper.
These were the weekly death tolls from Covid 19 per the cdc as of their update on June 13th.
4-11: 15670
4-18: 16309
4-25: 14051
5-2: 11575
5-9: 10591
5-16: 8543
5-23: 6388
5-30: 4996
6-6: 3114
6-13: 804

Now, before people who need to calm themselves down and quit listening to the MHM reply that all the numbers aren't in yet, yes, I'm aware of that. But all the numbers from that week were smaller than they were at the same time the week before, and the week before that, and so on. Indicating a downward trend in deaths, which indicate a downward trend in infections.

Did this trend continue the following week? Why yes, it did:

And as you can see, the results show that each week the death toll is trending downward. 804 reported last week for the 13th becomes only 271 reported for the 20th. Week two sees an upsurge because this is when each week sees most of the numbers roll in. That's a clerical upsurge. And even that is declining each week.

Using these two weeks as a guideline, if the trend were to continue, we would expect the June 27th figures to come in at less than 200, the second week uptick for the June 20th figures to come in at less than 1600 total and so on.

And in fact, this is exactly what we see:

The numbers don't lie, Covid-19 is going away, despite the protests, despite states letting people return to work and lessening restrictions.

Despite the Media Hysteric Manufacturers parsing words about how the "rate of new cases" is increasing. Because let's face it, if the rate of testing increases, and it has, then of course the rate of new cases increases.

That does not mean, however, that more people are getting the virus. Far from it, since we had insufficient testing to begin with, we don't really know how many people have or used to have the virus. The only thing we have to go by as to how far the infection went is to look at the death totals.

But they don't agree with the MHM narrative.

Meanwhile, as America approaches 50% unemployment, you can all breath on sigh of relief: The pandemic is ending.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

They would say we are getting better at saving lives, and that is reflected in the charts.

But they would also say that the US broke itself in the last few weeks. People were unable to control their behaviors, and they had no national leadership to follow, so infections have ignited a wildfire of spreading infection. Dr Fauci says that within weeks the infection rate will reach 100,000 per day. There are just too many people producing a massive amount of virus in the environment, often without any symptoms of illness at all.

It's likely we all have absorbed fragments of the virus from the environment and we will be adding to the virus load we are carrying just in the course of day to day activities. When our viral load reaches a certain size, or we are exposed to a large dose of whole virus, (or our immune system is suddenly weakened) — that's when the infection takes over.

It's the infection rate, not the death rate, that epidemiologists care about. Unlike all other nations, the US does not have a national public healthcare system. Predatory capitalism and medical profiteering keeps too many of our herd sick, unhealthy, untreated, and desperate. This makes our entire society sick, stressed, and in constant denial of reality — because reality is morally repulsive. The way that this unsustainable dystopia endangers all of our lives is showing up right now.

We're swimming in virus soup in the US because poorly educated People didn't want to wear masks to protect one another. They are not really fit to be members of a society. We are leaving younger generations an asset-stripped, dying planet that is basically a shit sandwich — all because we couldn't regulate capitalism so it benefitted the People and the Planet. The young people left holding the bag are the ones who are driving this runaway infection. They really don't care if they infect the rest of us. Why would they? Why should they?

The state governors acted with belligerent stupidity to reopening their cities to please the thieving capitalists who cleaned out our treasury. The risks to the lives of the People were very obvious, but the dumbest of the governors were willing to lay that risk on the People, declaring, "I shall err on the side of freedom!"

The following article appeared yesterday:

Virus is Beyond Control, According to CDC Official

At the close of June, there are close to 3 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US (2,705,394 as this article goes to publish). The US has seen a rapid uptick of infections, and now the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention believes that the US has just too much too virus to control it.

“We’re not in the situation of New Zealand or Singapore or Korea where a new case is rapidly identified and all the contacts are traced and people are isolated who are sick and people who are exposed are quarantined and they can keep things under control,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the CDC in an interview with The Journal of the American Medical Association’s Dr. Howard Bauchner. “We have way too much virus across the country for that right now, so it’s very discouraging.”

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Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

snoopydawg's picture

@Pluto's Republic

right about what kind of world they are going to be left with. 40 years of policies that were passed went against them and for the upper class. I’m not sure which bill is the one that affected them the most. Bank deregulation and the bankruptcy bills are in the top 2.

The state governors acted with belligerent stupidity to reopening their cities to please the thieving capitalists who cleaned out our treasury. The risks to the lives of the People were very obvious, but the dumbest of the governors were willing to lay that risk on the People, declaring, "I shall err on the side of freedom!"

Absolute this. Ordering low wage workers back to work in the meat processing plants without proper PPE was criminal in my opinion. Same with Amazon who both fought against closing down just long enough for proper cleaning and then ordering people back to work and threatened to be fired if they had fears of dying and wanted to stay home just to keep it from happening. No additional pay either for those who risked it.

Sirota's tweet can be applied to so many other issues in regards to COVID and how this country responded to it.

Congress is going to let the federal unemployment benefits expire this month. Hundreds of thousands of people are going to be evicted from their homes and apartments in the middle of an exploding epidemic. 11% of workers are not going to be returning to work because their business has shutdown and all of this was done deliberately. Good luck you asswipes that make products for people to buy because you’re business will shut down too. Banks that make money off of the fees they charge for people to park their money in them are going to be affected too. Multiply these by hundreds if not thousands and you see the collapse of the USA. The current government will forever be known as the ones that killed the once greatest country evah. Well done!

The pandemic is not ending. It’s just taking a deep breath to ramp up again. And how many people are going to be left with permanent disabilities that they will have no money to get treatment for? No SSdI either and even SS is going to be taking a hit if congress lets corporations skip paying their payroll taxes.

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

gulfgal98's picture

@Pluto's Republic The key number is not the death rate because we really do not know what the end death rate will be. But the key number is the infection rate and there is not better example than the state of Florida.

The numbers have been shocking. I am a most of the year resident of Florida and I have been following the "official state numbers" which may or may not be right. The actual numbers could be higher, but the official numbers are frightening enough.

Just three weeks ago, the average number of new cases a day was 1,000 per week. Then suddenly, that number shot up to 1,500. In that three week period, the number of new cases per day is now six times what it was just three short weeks ago. Along with that significant rise in new cases per day is the decrease in the median age of the new cases. This is a significant number.

In my home county, for a long time, the median age was in the mid 40's. Now with the explosion of new cases, both statewide and locally, the median age in my home county is now 25. In my own home county the single largest age group that has tested positive is the 15-24 age group. So what does that mean? Maybe it means a lower overall death rate, but what it really means is that younger people have not been adhering to social distancing and to other means to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

And we all know that the most vulnerable people to dying from COVID-19 are those who are older or have underlying medical issues. While the young may not die from COVID-19, they may be unknowingly spreading it to vulnerable populations. We cannot conclude that the current death rates from COVID-19 make it not as bad as the epidemiologists are saying, but we must realize that we are in the midst of this pandemic, not at the end of it.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~ Dr. Cornel West

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

Pluto's Republic's picture

@gulfgal98

In my home county, for a long time, the median age was in the mid 40's. Now with the explosion of new cases, both statewide and locally, the median age in my home county is now 25.

That's an awfully big move. It's a demographic more reminiscent of Africa than Europe or the US.

States in the South and the West, too, elected very self-absorbed sociopaths to knock them around and degrade the fabric of their society. They wanted a bold Trump-like atmosphere.. Those states are the ones that are overwhelmed by the virus. Those dumb governors are about to find out they can't get back to safety by closing everything down again. They released a typhoon and they will have to ride it out. In Arizona doctors began triage a few days ago, choosing a hundred or so people who will be left to die each night. You can imagine the scene. The other dumb-governor states will be doing the same thing soon enough. And they personally will suffer no consequences. This is what the world is watching: The Empire that wants to rule them.

Take care.

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Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

gulfgal98's picture

@Pluto's Republic had been one of those that had been doing much better than most counties until the numbers exploded statewide. I used it to demonstrate that no area is an island. Until everyone takes this thing seriously, a lot of innocent people are going to suffer or die due to the carelessness and/or selfishness.

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"I don't want to run the empire, I want to bring it down!" ~ Dr. Cornel West

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy

RantingRooster's picture

according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University, which, if I'm not mistaken, was supposed to be the "authoritative source", not the CDC.

The CDC doesn't even list death's by PME (preventable medical errors) which would be about the 3rd leading cause of death to Americans if they did.

I just made this a few momenst ago.
world_7-1-20.png

Those numbers the MHM are getting, is from is the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University

5NBCDFW is reporting COVID on cases logged by Texas DSHS
Texas_7-1-20.png

If I understand correctly, (which I might not) the "data" starts at CSSE and flows down to the states from there.

My own opinion is, the CDC data is worthless, and has been for a lot longer than this covid virus thing. That's just me.

I've already spent 8 days in the hospital and 3 days in ICU on a ventilator after they drained a liter of fluid from my lungs, just because someone went to work sick, and was still contagious.

I'm just saying, if you want to go around and potentially get someone sick, possibly kill them, knock you self on out, but be prepared for the consequences in this heightened state of craziness we are in.

I was on twitter today, a woman was at a party, and on a dare, she went across the street, trespassed on a guy's property and stole his flag, and the property owner shot her four times. (this happened in Okalahoma)

It was a NAZI flag. I get that. But, everyone was butt hurt she got shot. I feel bad for the woman, but, if you are stupid enough to trespass, and steal a NAZI's flag, on a dare from party goers, drinking, you better be prepared for the consequences of your actions.

She broke the law, trespassing and stealing private property. But NO ONE seem to understand that little FACT. I'm not excusing the NAZI guy's shooting of the woman in anyway what so ever. But she provoked the whole thing by breaking the law, first.

If someone is flying the NAZI flag, that right there should inform you, they are probably not going to be the nicest person you'll ever meet, especially if your trespassing and trying to steal their stuff, right?

But I digress, apologies, I am a just raving lunatic...

Crazy

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"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

Pluto's Republic's picture

@RantingRooster

...are basically Enemy Combatants. We have a situation where the nation's truckers don't want to drive across the country, which is our only supply chain infrastructure. Truckers know the looting is sure to come and bullets will be flying across the darkness and into their cab, one night soon.. A highly armed population is the sign of a failed state, all over the world. The delusion that you can have an effective and helpful police force in a nation filled with an armed and dangerous population who just can't stop shooting each other — is the kind of delusion that is born in a failed state.

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20 users have voted.

Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

@Pluto's Republic @Pluto's Republic guns are - obviously - not shooting each other. And your assumption that an armed populace is inherently dangerous and unstable is belied by history and common sense.

A highly armed population is the sign of a failed state, all over the world. The delusion that you can have an effective and helpful police force in a nation filled with an armed and dangerous population who just can't stop shooting each other — is the kind of delusion that is born in a failed state.

There were plenty of guns around when I was growing up - but violence and crime in general was rare - and this was not some wealthy enclave. Under your (as I understand it) theory of lots of guns equals chaos, please explain Finland, Switzerland and Vermont.

And although gun owners in general are not shooting each other, young black males *are* - at a pretty astronomical rate. Black males - 6% of the population commit nearly half of all murders in the US, and - as most of the perpetrators (and victims) are young (and black).
It's a bit hard to try and solve problems, though, when pointing out that there in
fact *is* a problem is unacceptable.

To be sure there are whites, Latinos & etc. using guns irresponsibly as well - but how should the irresponsible behavior of those of whatever race form the rationale for infringing on the activity of those (of whatever race) who are behaving responsibly? Especially when it's infringing on something as fundamental as the right to defend oneself.

What the hell ever happened to *individual* responsibility? The problem is neither too few or too many guns but dangerously low levels of social capital - although as the video below suggests, there are considerable differences in that regard between failed states such as Chicago and many other parts of the country.

Those inclined to think it's a great idea to defund police and disarm the citizenry (and green cardry) might want to think carefully about who/what is likely to replace them.

BTW - here's a real black leader - who seems to regard a population of responsible armed citizens as a feature rather than a bug:

(quick - someone get hold of Shaun King and tell him there are statues in Clay County FL that need toppling..)

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snoopydawg's picture

@Blue Republic

which is what Pluto alluded to. But when society breaks down and the food supply is broken and people are watching their families starve what do you think is going to happen? That people will just take it lying down and peacefully? No one knows what will happen because this scenario hasn't happened here before. And at least during the Great Depression FDR was waiting in the wings to throw people a life raft. The current government has abandoned we the people in favor of their owners donors. This could have been handled much differently if the money that went to their donors had come to us instead like other countries did for their people.

As to this:

And although gun owners in general are not shooting each other, young black males *are* - at a pretty astronomical rate. Black males - 6% of the population commit nearly half of all murders in the US, and - as most of the perpetrators (and victims) are young (and black).
It's a bit hard to try and solve problems, though, when pointing out that there in
fact *is* a problem is unacceptable.

Who is denying that there is a huge violence problem in Chicago with the number of blacks killing other blacks? When was the last time anyone in charge there looked at the underlying social/economic problems in high crime areas to see what can be done to fix it?

But I will have to look at the stats to see if that number is accurate. Do you perhaps have a link to it?

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

@snoopydawg

They were banned as hate speech when someone posted some on Instagram recently. But were subsequently re-instated.

Link to that story here

which has a link to the FBI's page

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snoopydawg's picture

@Blue Republic

I will look at it later. Busy busy day and I am still surfing and getting distracted.

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

@Blue Republic
are primarily deer rifles used for hunting, of all things, deer. I suspect the situation in Finland is similar. In Switzerland the guns are associated with a very well regulated militia.

I doubt that Saturday night specials are a threat to the republic. White militias, independent of the government, armed with AR 15s are a different matter. When these people surround state capital buildings making demands and governors and legislators receive death threats the situation is entirely different. Some of these people have written that if times get tough they are confiscating less prepared neighbors' food. Many others are less public about their intentions. Suppose Trump loses and these people convince themselves that the results are fake news?

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snoopydawg's picture

@RantingRooster

I've already spent 8 days in the hospital and 3 days in ICU on a ventilator after they drained a liter of fluid from my lungs, just because someone went to work sick, and was still contagious.

Did I miss the announcement or is this the first time you telling us this? It sounds absolutely dreadful and I’m sorry you went through it just because someone came to work sick. But did they know they had it but didn’t have sick leave to stay home. This too is on congress and they should shut the f’ck up about how Trump is managing this. If they had given people enough money to stay home long enough to let COVID burn out we’d be opening up the country like Europe is. But no.

60% of people who test positive for COVID don’t know they have it. And a large number of them have COVID lung spots even though they have no symptoms. Doctors are seeing people who have low oxygen levels that they should be in a coma. They are still talking up to the time they fall unconscious and then they die. Who wants to take that chance?

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

RantingRooster's picture

@snoopydawg in my rant here.

Gee, all I needed was a new battery for my truck but I got stuck with a 47 thousand dollar medical bill after staying in the hospital for 8 days, 3 in ICU and a liter of fluid drained from my lungs, simply because some ASSHOLE retail clerk decided they needed to feed their family and go to work sick, while they were still contagious!

This was 2013. I went to an auto parts store and the guy behind the counter looked, sounded, and acted like he was sick. I needed a battery for my truck and well, I bought one. With in a few days, I start feeling really bad, all achy and such, so I go to the little Medical office across the street from my apartment, Doc, I don't feel well. He does his thing, taking my temp, BP and etc.

And the next thing I know, he's like, (kind of scared looking) "You need to go to the hospital now, I'm calling an ambulance for you.", I'm like WTF? What's the problem, and he's like "you are hours from death, you have a temp of 104.5 and need to go to the hospital NOW!" He seemed really upset, but I'm like dude, I'm not spending $1,800 for a fancy taxi ride, I'll get my wife to take me. Of course She had just started her Chemo treatments for Cancer and the exam he just performed was $300 I had to put on my wife's credit card. We hadn't met the deductible requirement yet on her employer's insurance! ($6000 per person)

I get to the hospital ER, they do their thing, and it's off to get ice packs on me, medications and IV of fluids. After 2 days (of fucking sleep deprivation torture) and not getting any better, fever went to 106, they moved me to ICU and drained a liter of fluid out of my lungs and put me on a ventilator. (Of course I was bloated and gained probably 10 pounds just from all the IV's they pumped into me. My ankles were almost as big as my thighs and my skin felt like it was stretched to the breaking point!)

My first 2 days was really torture. They woke me up every hour on the hour, to see if I was still alive. Talk about not getting any sleep what so ever.

Anyway, after being in ICU I started to get better and they moved me to a private room for recovery. I had acute pneumonia and septic shock.

IMG_20140304_172835.jpg
I was actually thinking the other day of checking with the hospital and see if they still have my samples, and see if they match up with this COVID thing.

Then I got the bill, 47 thousand dollars. Well thank you but fuck off! My credit was just starting to recover from losing my house almost 6 years prior.

I found out today, I didn't get a job I was offered yesterday, because well, my credit. well, I did refuse (nicely) to allow them to run a credit report. They were not extending me any credit and no credit was require to video tape some fucking sport games! But, ya know, "your credit is an indicator blah blah blah".

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"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

snoopydawg's picture

@RantingRooster

What a horrible experience you went through. Yeah hospitals are not the place to go to if you want rest. As for the horrible bill you were left with and what it did to your credit that is what congress should be addressing, but of course they and their sycophants think that passing the ACA was as far as we should go addressing our heinous health care. And why is credit tied to so many things and especially when it was medical bills that put it in the crapper? Who made that legal? Yeah yeah never mind. Big rant building....

It sounds like you got lucky with no permanent harm to your kidneys with that much water retention. Swelling in your limbs is a very unpleasant feeling isn't it? My L leg swells every summer from the nerve damage in my leg and my doctor refuses to write script to drain the water from it anymore.

As for being woken up every 10 minutes I have that T shirt too. They woke me up to keep from going into a coma after my head injury. All I wanted to do was sleep. Shiver... revisiting that memory.

Glad to hear you made it through that. The high temp was very dangerous for so many organs and especially your brain. Have you fully recovered from that?

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“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

RantingRooster's picture

@snoopydawg I still have a plethora of health issues, any number of which could be related, but since I can't even get a simple diagnosis, I have no way to find out. I can get pain med's but not an actual diagnosis. It's absurd!

Heck, my wife's OGBYN ignored her complaints for like 6 months, and when he finally decided to check her out, oh gee, she has cancer, and then died from it in 2015. So much for "early detection".

I've been "technically" homeless, living in a music rehearsal studio (not fit for human habitation) since Jan of 2017. Talk about "socially isolated"...
IMG_20170104_191617.jpg

9/11 truly changed everything, and I mean everything!

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"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

Anja Geitz's picture

@RantingRooster

I've already spent 8 days in the hospital and 3 days in ICU on a ventilator after they drained a liter of fluid from my lungs, just because someone went to work sick, and was still contagious.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

RantingRooster's picture

@Anja Geitz It was 2013

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"Men who look upon themselves born to reign, and others to obey, soon grow insolent; selected from the rest of mankind their minds are early poisoned by importance;" - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

Anja Geitz's picture

@RantingRooster

I am so sorry. Sounds like you were lucky to get out alive.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

k9disc's picture

A nation of immortals, I guess, eh?

COVID isn't going away. It'e being subsumed into our culture. Just another epidemic to ignore. While we focus on our individualist pursuits and stroke our own egos.

I've been following this seriously since the outset. I don't want to get it. I will avoid getting it for as long as I can.

I think we were supposed to spread it, one can only see so many mistakes until one decides that it's baked in. Like GW Bush was not a failure, he was a spectacular success, got everything he wanted save Social Security - he just was playing a different game.

The game being played at this time is not what we think it is. I'm not sure what it is, but America as we know it doesn't seem to have an invite to the after party.

I've attached a video that should be of interest to all of you (content starts at about 45 minutes).

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Roy Blakeley's picture

Not only are more people testing positive, but the percentage of tests that are positive have been increasing as well. If the increased number was simply due to more testing, the percentage of positive tests would be decreasing. Your interpretation of CDC death numbers is wrong. There is a decrease in the percentage of cases that result in death. Doctors are getting better at treating COVID-19 and younger people are an increasing fraction of the total cases and they are less likely to die. Note, however, that doctors are increasingly noting long term effects of COVID-19. This is not a surprise, COVID-19 binds to the ACE2 receptor and is internalized by receptor-mediated endocytosis. Many cell types express the ACE2 receptor. It is not surprising that people infected with SARS-COV-2 have a variety of symptoms and some are displaying longer-term neurological, renal and cardio-vascular problem. Being listed as "recovered" doesn't mean you are as good as new. It just means you didn't die.

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Roy Blakeley

It is reckless and could kill people.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz

that really kill people

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Blue Republic

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz

zero in the way of substantive response from you.

Are you claiming this nurse is lying? Incompetent? That this sort of
thing was not happening in NYC?

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Anja Geitz's picture

@Blue Republic

It’s clear you have an axe to grind about this subject as you keep following me around eager to engage me in your special brand of reality. I don’t respond with anything “substantive” because to do so would be fruitless. It would take me ten times longer to explain what's wrong with your argument, as it would for you to raise another pseudo-issue, and then another, and then another -- which is the pattern of all folks who share your special brand of reality.

So, please stop buzzing around me like a fly waiting to argue with me when I have zero interest in pretending I have an interest in your viewpoint about this. At all.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz

So, if you make sweeping statements about them with nothing to back them up, expect them to be challenged.

That has zero to do with whatever you think of my opinions. Which I am quite willing to modify when presented with new or contrary factual information, logical argument...

I used to know everything, too - but that was about fifty years ago. Nowadays it seems like I have to keep learning stuff all the time.

“People who pride themselves on their "complexity" and deride others for being "simplistic" should realize that the truth is often not very complicated. What gets complex is evading the truth.”

― Thomas Sowell, Barbarians inside the Gates and Other Controversial Essays

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polkageist's picture

You are analyzing the data incorrectly. Look at cases not at deaths. Remember that first come symptoms, then comes hospitalization, then comes recovery or death. Each stage takes some time and therefore sometimes quite a long time passes before recovery or death. Death numbers will tell you only that mitigation worked until politicians drew the wrong conclusions. Look again in a month or two and see what conclusions you can draw.

Therefore, we really don't know what the death toll will be in a few weeks' time when those just recently infected die. If you look at the same CDC charts you use in your essay you will see that new cases are very near their peak numbers once again.

  • On April 6 cases peaked at 43,438.
  • Mitigation efforts such lockdowns, masks and distancing progressively reduced new cases until on June 3 the total number of cases dropped to 14,676.
  • As of June 30 the number of cases was back up to 43,644.

These additional cases are not due only to better counting but are attributable to more people getting sick. Opening bars, going to parties, hanging out with friends, and not taking any precautions leads directly to more infections. Once again, there is a lag between initial infection and the onset of symptoms so these infections began sooner than they show up in the figures. Even Greg Abbott, the Governor of Texas, has recognized this fact and has reimposed a few restrictions, and I give him little credit for intelligence. Another reasonable conclusion is that this pandemic is NOT over. It has not even gotten a good start.

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16 users have voted.

-Greed is not a virtue.
-Socialism: the radical idea of sharing.
-Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
John F. Kennedy, In a speech at the White House, 1962

@polkageist

case numbers it would behoove you to take a look at what is defined and counted as a case.

CDC has moved the goalposts.

Collin County, Texas (from 15:30 in the video)

CDC revised guidelines

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1 user has voted.
polkageist's picture

@Blue Republic
I listened to the testimony and it seems it is the State of Texas Department of Health Services that has changing their definition. If I understood the woman's testimony correctly, then the CDC data remains unchanged. However, my point is that you simply are looking at incomplete data when you only analyze deaths without accounting for the time lag between disease onset and death. I'm afraid you are misled.

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7 users have voted.

-Greed is not a virtue.
-Socialism: the radical idea of sharing.
-Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
John F. Kennedy, In a speech at the White House, 1962

Pricknick's picture

A temporary hiatus maybe.
The hottest summer on record may have a little to do with it. Maybe not.
This is not a bug that will wilt away and die yet many humans will before it's vanquished.

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11 users have voted.

Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

Seems to me that if the death rate is truly going down, then shouldn't that be something to celebrate?

Why all the hostility?

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4 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

janis b's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

worth considering.

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3 users have voted.
ovals49's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger
much faster due to lax and incompetent suppression of the rate of infection. It’s a “Get sick and either get over it or die, but do it quickly” strategy. Of course this inevitably results in far more deaths due to the health delivery system being totally overwhelmed and unable to treat all of those who need medical intervention.

I fail to see how this is anything to celebrate, unless you are both young and immortal.

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7 users have voted.

“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.”
Albert Einstein

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@ovals49

Of course this inevitably results in far more deaths due to the health delivery system being totally overwhelmed and unable to treat all of those who need medical intervention.

but I have yet to see any proof that this is actually what is happening. As I understand it, most COVID positive patients get sent home anyway, so where's the problem? If anything, the morbidity data above show that physicians appear to be getting a handle on treatment for the most vulnerable, which would appear to mitigate a lot of the systemic threat you are concerned about.

Also, if the hospitals are truly in danger of being overwhelmed, wouldn't it be better to simply fund them to the necessary levels than shut down the entire country to protect the small percentage of patients truly at risk?

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3 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger good points, but then TPTB can't suppress the backlash that was coming from the BernieOrVest movement.
Bidens an in now and for the second time in a row the DNC has stolen a primary.

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4 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain

is some time after the first week in November.

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1 user has voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Anja Geitz's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

Through the frame of electoral politics, I think ultimately to suggest that the danger of contracting this virus is being falsified to win an election is jumping the shark a bit.

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2 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Anja Geitz

I think ultimately to suggest that the danger of contracting this virus is being falsified to win an election is jumping the shark a bit.

You might be right.

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1 user has voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Anja Geitz's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

Are you referring to the media coverage about Covid? Because what you actually wrote was left open to interpretation.

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1 user has voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Anja Geitz

that the closer we get to election day, the harder it gets to tell just where the science ends and the fiction begins.

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1 user has voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger Big Pharma and the lobbyists don't give a shit about an election.
I pretty much ignore statistics and data, get my info on my county from the judge. 20 cases 10 days ago. 40 cases today.
No deaths.
We do not have a hospital in this county. I will continue to shelter in and keep people out of my office until I get reports from the judge that give me some ease of mind.

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4 users have voted.
k9disc's picture

And stopping or slow rolling the counting of deaths doesn't mean that deaths are not happening.

Excess morbidity has been up all year.

And if you check out that video I shared above, you might find out that morbidity might not be the only problem we have with COVID. I don't think it's even in the top 3.

@Not Henry Kissinger

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8 users have voted.

“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@k9disc
perhaps you might summarize the findings instead of pointing me to a 2 1/2 hour video of an esoteric technical discussion that doesn't appear to actually address my point.

Seems to me that the number of people dying should be in the top 3 of any concerns about ANY pandemic spread. After all, is it really still a pandemic if relatively few people are dying from it?

Finally, my own belief is that the virus is so contagious that it is impossible to contain, and that the focus on eradication at the expense of all other human activity is misguided.

Let's face it, we can't hide from this thing, so IMO we are far better off mitigating the truly awful aspects (including death) for the small percentage of vulnerable patients rather than indefinitely locking down the rest who are not at high risk for complications.

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3 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Pluto's Republic's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

...from medical studies and posted papers awaiting peer reviews — synthesizing and cross linking it it for my own use.

Seems to me that the number of people dying should be in the top 3 of any concerns about ANY pandemic spread. After all, is it really still a pandemic if relatively few people are dying from it?

In a logical world, I would agree with you, but our world has become too strange. For example, there is a growing global awareness among professionals that perhaps 50 percent of those who were infected by the virus — even mildly — may be permanently brain damaged. The virus is taking up long term residence in the human brain and it seems to be redrawing neural networks to serve its own mysterious purpose. There are very unusual things happening to recovered patients in all countries. The survivors are going to need lifelong medical help. Nobody knows what all of this really means. This is without even considering the permanent damage to the heart and other organs.

There's a focus among those who are watching this to prevent as many people as possible from becoming infected. They may be a precious resource going forward.

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5 users have voted.

Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Pluto's Republic

For example, there is a growing global awareness among professionals that perhaps 50 percent of those who were infected by the virus — even mildly — may be permanently brain damaged. The virus is taking up long term residence in the human brain and it seems to be redrawing neural networks to serve its own mysterious purpose.

That's quite a statement to throw out there unsourced.

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1 user has voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

snoopydawg's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-cov...

The longest this is around the scarier it seems to get. This brain damage is on top of other organs being damaged.

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7 users have voted.

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@snoopydawg

Here's the 50% stat:

Estimates of exact prevalence vary, but it seems that roughly 50% of patients diagnosed with Sars-CoV-2 – the virus responsible for causing the illness Covid-19 – have experienced neurological problems.

Two things:

1. 'have experienced neurological problems' does not mean 'may be permanently brain damaged'. It more probably means 'had a headache'.

So as someone who is pretty sure he's already had the bug, I would appreciate next time a bit more circumspection before erroneously scaring me into thinking I may become a COVID zombie in the not too distant future.

2. While I'm willing to accept information from anywhere as potentially valid, the BBC is not exactly the most unbiased of sources.

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2 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Anja Geitz's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

'have experienced neurological problems' does not mean 'may be permanently brain damaged'. It more probably means 'had a headache'.

A 60 year old woman who is the Mother of one of our crew members here in our store contracted the virus a month ago and is now experiencing memories of things that never happened to her. Doctor thinks she may have seen what she is describing happened to her on television and it got “stuck” in her head. Regardless, it’s been a very worrying development for her son who spoke with me about it only yesterday. So, not quite “just a headache“ in her case.

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6 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Anja Geitz
Scaremongering using exaggerated claims and anecdotal evidence is exactly the problem I'm talking about.

Are you suggesting that 50% of COVID sufferers are going to have false memories? Or that we should continue to lock down the country indefinitely because you know someone who knows someone who watched too much television during her fever?

The whole thing reeks of hysteria and a lack of perspective.

Look, some of us are trying to get a real handle on exactly what the COVID threat truly is and, even more importantly, what it isn't, which is tough enough given how badly the warring establishment factions have already politicized the COVID response.

It doesn't help matters when people here (who should know better) use inflammatory, inflated, and hearsay claims to support their own pre-conceived policy agendas.

You all need to reel it in.

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1 user has voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Anja Geitz's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

I have no policy “agendas” that I am aware of. I am simply offering an example of someone experiencing neurological problems that were not, as you described it, merely a headache. Deduce what you will of that. I am making no other claims

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4 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

snoopydawg's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

Are you suggesting that 50% of COVID sufferers are going to have false memories? Or that we should continue to lock down the country indefinitely because you know someone who knows someone who watched too much television during her fever?

You asked for a link to backup what Pluto said and I provided one and yet you dismissed it because of the source? Do your own research then into how it affects the brain since there are other sources that talk about it.

It doesn't help matters when people here (who should know better) use inflammatory, inflated, and hearsay claims to support their own pre-conceived policy agendas.

Is that not what you are doing in this comment thread? And who here is saying that they want the country shut down until this over? Of course that can't happen, but the way it has been handled by this government with them bailing out the rich and not the people made it easier for states to send people back to work even though the numbers weren't decreasing like they made it contingent on. We'd all be better off if we had been given support like other governments did.

Look, some of us are trying to get a real handle on exactly what the COVID threat truly is and, even more importantly, what it isn't, which is tough enough given how badly the warring establishment factions have already politicized the COVID response.

I would say all of us are trying to do that and different opinions should be tolerated.

You all need to reel it in.

Yep.

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5 users have voted.

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@snoopydawg @snoopydawg

It doesn't help matters when people here (who should know better) use inflammatory, inflated, and hearsay claims to support their own pre-conceived policy agendas.

Is that not what you are doing in this comment thread?

Pluto wildly distorts research findings, you push a corporate propaganda outlet report as truth, and Anja piles on with some scary third hand personal anecdote - and I'm the one making inflammatory, inflated, and hearsay claims?

Talk about projection.

I would say all of us are trying to do that and different opinions should be tolerated.

I tolerate all honest opinions. I am far less tolerant of people promoting bullshit 'facts'.

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0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

snoopydawg's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

I just provided a link. No one knows what you find acceptable so I’ll stop trying to help. What you dismiss others might find helpful. And you accuse me of being difficult? Mirror....

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3 users have voted.

“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” - John Adams

travelerxxx's picture

@Not Henry Kissinger

I've read only a handful of articles on Covid affecting organs other than the lungs. However, my searches have produced more hits than I could read in a month, especially considering the complexity of the subject matter. The last one I read, which is a month old, is from the New England Journal of Medicine: Neurologic Features in Severe SARS-CoV-2 Infection

There are 144 Citing Articles listed with just this single NEJM report. Are they all correct? I have no idea. However, none of them appear to have been written by politicians or other hacks – rather they are authored by medical professionals worldwide.

These medical people are seeing something. I don't believe too many of them – if any – are willing to state any absolutes regarding this. There's just not enough information and there hasn't been enough time. So, there's something happening here. What is is ain't exactly clear.

[Edited to correct quote to use the correct improper language.]

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5 users have voted.

China waited until their Currently Active Cases went to near zero before opening up. We waited until this number reached a peak. These are the folks who will infect you and I.

Currently Active Cases

USA:
May 30 -- 1,176,000 a peak
Many states opened up
July 2 -- 1,485,000 again a peak

China:
April 1 --- 1,863 cases
China opened up
July 2 --- 416 cases

Whatever we gained as a nation through social distancing and wearing face masks, we lost by opening up. We are less than 5% of the population of the world and we have 25% of the cases. And it's not that we test more, we are number 25 in tests per million. At this point we have lost more than half the total number of people that we lost in the European theater of WWII. We will exceed this number by the time this is over.

The other factor going up is sales of guns. People are beginning to get it, this is a epoch event in the history of the US. Breakdown of US society is a possibility. It will take between 24 and 36 months to resolve this pandemic, depending on what we do and how lucky we get with a vaccine. When we come out of it, China will be the number one economy, by far, both in production and in the market for consumption. We will be locked out, it's already happening. Perhaps a just payback? At that point the world will have to deal with a declining US as an aggressive, over militarized nuclear danger.

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10 users have voted.

Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

@The Wizard what did we lose if the death rate is going down?

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1 user has voted.

@Battle of Blair Mountain
The death rate is a trailing indicator. All the new cases will not show up as deaths for 2 to 3 weeks. Besides, we are seeing organ damage across almost all organs, even in mild cases. I agree that when this is all over the major indicator of success will be the deaths per million plus the rate of impaired health due to secondary organ damage. We have a long way to go. Even China is seeing an increase in new infections. We have only 4 states that have achieved a significant reduction in new infections. Will even those 4 states be able to contain their infection rate, especially as we open up?

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7 users have voted.

Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

the trend in deaths is a far more important indicator than the number of new cases.

The lower deaths may be due to factors such as improved treatment (could be improved *more*) or to ending such insane practices as sending COVID positive patients to nursing homes (NY, MN, PA..) or something else.

The steep increase in new cases may be all or mostly due to the fact that the CDC has drastically revised the way it counts cases. Total case numbers now do not just reflect confirmed cases but "probable" ones also - and the definition of a probable case is such that every confirmed case generates a much higher number of probables. So yes, cases may be increasing, but likely not by nearly as much as the official figures suggest.

For explication, let's go to Collin County, Texas

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1 user has voted.
Pluto's Republic's picture

@Blue Republic

...people who vehemently refuse to wear masks in public also test positively on a psychopathic Index.

But then, studies mean little at this point. They must be repeated again and again over a period of many years before they are accepted as a reliable truth.

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3 users have voted.

Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted.

— Martin Luther King

Anja Geitz's picture

There’s is more that we don’t know about this virus then what we do know. But you sure as shit wouldn’t come to that conclusion reading this essay and some of the comments that follow. Pseudo- experts espousing their theories with such assurance. I hope anyone who comes across this thread will have the good sense to question those here who assert with confidence that they know what is “really” happening.

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5 users have voted.

There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

@Anja Geitz I know what the cdc is really reporting.
It doesn't concur with media hype.
I'm impressed it only took a few minutes for someone - who has doubtless defended scientists over climate change - to declare cdc numbers worthless.

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2 users have voted.
polkageist's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain
If you look at my reply posted above to one of your prior postings you will see that you do not know what the CDC is posting. What you keep referencing is what the State of Texas Department of Health Services is posting about their changed definition. The CDC data remains unchanged.

You simply are looking at incomplete data when you only analyze deaths without accounting for the time lag between disease onset and death. I'm afraid you are wrong and this whole thread hinges on your misunderstanding of interpretation of data and of the arithmetic involved. You are wrong and it would be a good idea to sit back and try to see what people are trying to explain to you. This thread has gone astray because you have postulated something that does not hold up under scrutiny.

We need not discuss politics or any other extraneous subject. Just look at your assumptions and your arithmetic mistakes.

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4 users have voted.

-Greed is not a virtue.
-Socialism: the radical idea of sharing.
-Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
John F. Kennedy, In a speech at the White House, 1962

@Anja Geitz

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1 user has voted.

hasn't approved wearing masks because the virus is about to disappear.

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1 user has voted.

CERTITUDE
.
.

noun
freedom from doubt, especially in matters of faith or opinion; certainty.

This is a fascinating thread and very illuminating about the epistemology of mass communications in our utterly corrupt society. Just about the only unanimously agreed upon aspect of what I call The Asteroid Virus is that it is "novel." Nothing exactly like it has ever been detected by our global network of scientists, doctors and health care bureaucracies.

How inconvenient.

In our political culture within the US, that inconvenience for those of us who just want to know what to do is extremely convenient for spinmeisters of virtually any ideological stripe you want to name. Here we have a combination of the worst ever economic calamity combined with an utterly incomprehensible invisible substance that could kill tens of millions of people in the USA -- or could just "go away" in the next few months as the OP suggests. Hell, it is even possible that it never goes away and billions of people die with their lungs full of fluid. I have not heard any hype about The Second, Third and Fourth waves lately -- but I will not be surprised if that scary story returns soon.

With certainty an impossibility, politically motivated Certitude can be found all up and down the thread. Although I found the text of the OP persuasive and worth further thought and re-consideration of what we laughingly call "data" this summer, I think the title is a grotesque overstatement of the case actually made -- the Asteroid Virus might be "going away" but nothing as of now proves that to a certainty. It is yet another guess -- like the endless procession of "models" that keep being cited by medical czars like State Governors and the Medical Experts appearing on cable new shows.

There is nothing wrong with guesses, especially educated guesses, provided you don't bet too much money on them.

On the other hand, I do not see a single persuasive retort to the key point raised in the OP. Reported deaths officially attributed to The Asteroid Virus are declining.

I concede there are ways to explain that and other ways to discredit the numbers behind it. The numbers themselves are the product of a near infinity of local bureaucracies stationed all over the nation -- hospitals, cities, counties, states -- transmitted through ad hoc channels to nationally based bureaucracies like the Center for Disease Control. In turn, those assembled "numbers" are then disseminated through "media" in a journalistic era defined by the term, "Fake News."

Many of the media platforms openly discredit some of the numbers that this dysfunctional system produces. Red state governors are alleged to require their bureaucracies to make up lower numbers while the system itself admittedly fudges on the definition of "caused" with respect to Asteroid infection. Any death that could arguably be called caused by it goes into the list of Covid-19 deaths.

I know my government lies to me about all manner of things, and I have been watching television commercials that lie shamelessly for more than half a century -- lies told by profit making corporations. This makes me very suspicious of the health care scammers who are busting their guts now hoping to produce a "cure" that is guaranteed to make some pharma company tens of billions of dollars. Those companies blocked Clinton's run at national health and they bought Obamacare and made it their own. They have a strong interest in promoting The Scare.

So who do you trust? And why?

Again, very interesting thread.

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0 users have voted.

I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.